Mafia TBT Mafia II: Mafia Strike Back [Game Over/Mafia Win]

Justin said:

Chances are I will be murdered tonight by the Mafia. If there's a second doctor, I'd appreciate the protection from you, but if not I'm probably a goner tomorrow.

Because of this, I might as well just lay out most of my further suspicions after Mary. There are 4 mafia remaining. Let's examine the voting list from yesterday.

First, here's the list of players who were voting for Mary at the time of lynch yesterday:



It's fairly safe to assume that the players near the top of this list are likely townies and should be considered mostly innocent. Not guaranteed as voting for your fellow mafia is always a valid strategy to appear innocent, but most would at least attempt to defend their fellow scum first before giving in and voting for them. So the top half of this list is probably fairly innocent.

That said, I'd also watch out for the last couple players on the list who resisted until nearly the end, likely to try to save face for themselves after seeing that Mary was clearly getting lynched no matter what they said. Notably Kuma and River in this case.

In particular with River, I would keep an eye on her for mafia tells. She was the last player to vote for Mary, after much contesting in the main thread. I think she threw in the vote at the end to try to save herself from future lynching. There was this post in particular that stood out to me.

http://www.belltreeforums.com/showt...afia-Night-2&p=1924710&viewfull=1#post1924710

It seemed like a desperate attempt to make people believe Mary was a Detective in the face of a couple of us starting to bring her up. River is an experienced and smart player, so I have a hard time believing that she didn't catch on herself to what I replied to her post with.

All this being said, it's nothing too concrete, so I wouldn't start voting her or anything yet. But perhaps keep an eye on her at least.

Next thing I want to look at is the correlation between Mary's votes, and others voting with her votes. Mafia on the more inexperienced side tend to vote together as a pack as it appears like a good strategy for voting townies off.

Here's a list of all the players who voted for ACE on Day 1 at some point with Mary, and also voted for myself (Justin) on Day 2 with Mary at some point:



Take away the players who voted for Mary (and Mary herself) in the end to her demise...



And you end up with the list of three players above!

After all of this, these four players are my top suspects for Mafia at this moment in the game, in no particular order:



These are by no means confirmed mafia or anything like that. But based off analysing vote patterns, and some posts, those 4 players seem the most suspicious at the moment to me. I think it's worth keeping them in the back of your head. And if you're a detective, I know there's still at least one of you out there (unless Karla royally ****ed over the town), you should consider inspecting one of them. Of course, don't reveal yourself completely unless absolutely necessary. Try to just subtly hint towards someone if you catch them as mafia in your inspection.

We'll see what happens tomorrow with the kill and anything else that comes up.

One extra special note, lynn105 is probably on the side of town:



I'm highly doubtful they would vote for their own teammate at the very start of the game like that. lynn105 is also a first time player, so I doubt that it was an intentional strategy.

Basically:

LEAVE LYNN ALONE!!!

(and iLoveYou)

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