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Mafia TBT Mafia III: The Murder Before Christmas [Game Over/Town Win]

I can't speak for Trundle's actions, he certainly did not run that by me and I have PM'd him demanding an explanation.

Horus: No, VillageDweller fipping red will give little information about oath. I am satisfied with his explanation for why he pushed for VD. There is no reason to think only a Mafia partner would behave like that in that situation.
 
That all being said, I eagerly await hopefully more information from others later in the day. I have a suspicion to share myself a bit later with a couple other players I've been talking to.

Justin, i misread the clock and thought it said 17 hours, also, i'm a guy
 
Also I'd like to note that my previous suspicions on VillageDweller were unaddressed by him until BlueLeaf pointed it out - which probably caused VD to try to defend himself to avoid suspicion ( also fyi, I saw him viewing the thread a few minutes after I posted my suspicions, which he didn't respond to until a few hours after).

Also:
Last thing I'll get in before getting to sleep, fyi

The only ones I can really think of are River and Farobi. River made a pretty crap post as youpointed out, and just idk, hasn't done a lot. Same with farobi, just made a post about his candidate options. Same thing with gandalf tho. I always hate the day one lynchbecauase I have no idea about who to go for. :l

Anyhow, night for now.

So it is presumably safe to assume that River is Town, and I know I'm town, and that Gandalf is definitely town. He's most likely trying to divert attention towards the "inactives" and trying to conclude from further discussion which might lead him to slip up with the "night for now" message. OK, I admit I only posted one major post at the elections, but what makes me in your suspicion list for that particular reason, VD, other than the fact that I was suspicious on you and that I haven't been posting much?

With my previous suspicions which have been further enhanced by KarlaKGB, I am most likely going to end up voting for VD in around 20~ hours or so - not voting now until I see his side of the argument, which could, maybe, change my mind.
 
I hope that you would share the explanation with us?

Or at least tell us if you are convinced that he's townie after it. I'd like to be cleared of any suspicion of him, so we can focus on VD, or anybody else who comes up in the next day or so.
 
I hope that you would share the explanation with us?

Or at least tell us if you are convinced that he's townie after it. I'd like to be cleared of any suspicion of him, so we can focus on VD, or anybody else who comes up in the next day or so.

I imagine he would publicly explain why he made that post. He hasn't replied to me yet, and if he does, I will confirm if it matches up with what he writes here.

I don't see why we can't focus on VD now. We can only lynch one person anyway.
 
Firstly, I want to echo Justin's thoughts: role-claiming to our mayor at this stage isn't wise. Not only is it dangerous to the vets, but it is potentially harmful to town:

Let's assume for a moment that both Trundle and Laurina are being 100% honest. The mafia will already know this is the case and may deliberately try to play around with the results by sending in one of their own (e.g. a possible lurker we haven't seen much from or someone who may already be suspect) as a short-term distraction. In this case a genuine vet (x2) and a mafia have all role-claimed, which means Laurina could remain under suspicion.

Now, what if there was a different outcome? What if a (smart) genuine veteran were to refrain from role-claiming to Trundle for the sake of their own protection - then that means the results would consist of Laurina and this mafia lurker: thus the findings would be skewed, but they would appear more believable than if three people were to all role-claim veteran.

Alternatively, what if one or both of them is mafia? Well, then the results will swing in favour of them rather than us. So no matter how I look at this set-up I don't see how this will be beneficial to town.​


Secondly, the issue of VD. I'm sure several of us were already suspicious of him - but Karla has gone above and beyond referring back to the previous two games in order to find evidence. I especially appreciated the breakdown of each role and how they could possibly fit to VD and his play style this time around. However, I would like to hear from VD himself first about why he refused incarceration on night one before I share my own opinion.
 
A few more points to reinforce.

VillageDweller said:
her grammar becomes completely perfect and it looks like she's trying hard not to look like mafia
This is that post where he outs Kayla. Look what he says! This concept of cleaning up one's posting to not look scummy. He's clearly aware of this idea in his head. What does this mean? It means that he knows this is a legitimate strategy.
And now, he's subconsciously using that same strategy, and has clearly forgotten that he once pointed it out as a potential tell.

I'd like to address Mafia psychology again here. Everyone makes mistakes. Just there, I mistakenly said VD was a Townie in Game 1. Honest mistake, it certainly doesn't do my case any favours, but oh well. The no editing rule compounds that, as you can't even go back and fix mistakes. But the no editing rule punishes scum more than town. The difference is, as an innocent player, I just want to get my points across. The biggest thing I'm afraid of is not making any sense. I know that I can't slip up, because I don't have anything to slip up on. But for a Mafioso, they are oh so careful when they post. They are scared of anything that can be picked out and used against them, even if it's a moot point. It's that inherent guilt that comes with being scum.

- - - Post Merge - - -

Thinking about the people that died overnight - those hits could have been influenced by my Incarceration exchange with him. I told him I wanted to save him because I placed him at the top of an at risk list. He says it's fine, he doesn't think he'll be targeted.

Gandalf and Laurina are hit, two players who I would definitely say were near the top of the risk list. But alongside them, FireNinja and Kerry? Looking at FN's post history this game......nothing. Kerry? Asked some useful questions, FOS'd klinkguin but didn't add anything insightful either. Now, if four strong players had been hit that night, and VD avoided it, that would me rather suspicious of him, wouldn't it?

I'm thinking he told his Mafia buddies to spread their hits, so that he wouldn't stand out as a strong player who's still alive.

- - - Post Merge - - -

Seriously, VD, you've got some explaining to do. Why would you decline protection from the night? You're a townie, as you have said. And from what we can tell, the mafia certainly likes to attack townies. Just look at the kills for the night. It's three townies and a veteran. How could protection not be a good thing for you?

This is really incorrect reasoning. There is no reason to believe that Mafia know who the blues are. It would be a terrible move for Mafia to shoot townies over blues, if they did know who the blues were. And finally, my PM exchange with VD took place before all these people died - saying that three townies died therefore as a Townie, VD should have accepted my offer makes no sense. Townie VD would have no way of knowing three townies would die.
 
a thrilling defence saga

this is the second time I want to quote KarlaKGB and his post is too long omg

First off: just as a note in Game I I was not a townie. I was a Vigilante. So pointing out that it was key-townie characteristics to how I would've played is irrelevantbecause I wasn't a townie anyway! Hence why I am different this game. As a townie this game, I have much less to do and so my posts need to be better since that's all townies can do, as you have pointed out in your plan.
Above part: Wrote before Karla posted about me being a vigi, but I'd like to say my point still stands about why I would be playing differently.

Onto your note about incarceration: I simply didn't want it on night 1 because I didn't want to immediately have a wasted incarceration on Night 1 when I had doubts about being killed anyway, I didn't want to waste it. I find it convenient that you have left out all the parts about me asking for incarceration on Game 2. I asked you that about 3 times in PMs and you conviently ignored me all of those times.

VillageDweller said:
I honestly don't think so. I think it'd probably be better to save incarcerations for later on when more people are dead. I also don't think I'll be targeted because I made a pretty sht campaign saying how I found out that Kayla was the Godfather and then everyone pretty much shut it down, so I'm thinking that the Mafia will see this as a reason to not kill me off: I can sometimes end up saying/doing things and then doing nothing about them. I think it will be fine not incarcerating me tonight. <3

..But I am a tad selfish. I may want incarceration on Night 2/Day 3, if you would be so kind. Hate to bring the damn first game into this lol going way back, but I think I was only killed that day because I was a bit more active if I remember right. Second game, I hadn't done a whole lot but I told Kayla I was a medic after night 1, which is probs why she got around to killing me that night.

So would it be okay if you just incarcerated me for night 2/day 3?

KarlaKGB said:
I've got three incarcerations to use, and with KP at 4 tonight (unless we hit scum), I really don't think you'll be safe. Your reason for running (like mine) was based around not wanting to die. To me, this means that you have an ability of some sort that you need to use, or you've found yourself a medic. I hope it's both!

VillageDweller said:
Mhm, while it is a big risk I really just think we should hold off on the incarceration for tonight. Would it still be okay for you to use it on me on Night 2/Day 3 though?

Oh, and who are you thinking about lynching? (Or well, I hope discuss with Trundle to lynch) I probably won't be around for much longer, and I really don't have any suspicions so far apart from Blu Rose.. but I'm still not even sure about him!

KarlaKGB said:
At this stage, I'm shying away from the active posters. It's unlikely that more than one or two of the active posters in that thread are scum. No, I think we'll be looking at the lurkers and inactives for this one. Your thoughts?

VillageDweller said:
Not particularly, I just have a bad feeling from him. Not a whole lot to go on, he's just sometimes idk weird? But tbh he was like that last game and turned out to be town, I just hope it's the same this game.

KarlaKGB said:
Yes, town rather failed to get any real useful information out of day one, because everyone was running around in circles. Good luck for the night!


Haven't found out anything.

Are you still up for incarcerating me for Night 2/Day 3?
I didn't include all the PMs because they went off the topic, but I asked around 3 times to be incarcerated on Night 2/Day 3. Using his logic about not wanting to be incarcerated to not have the Mafia KP go down wouldn't make sense, because why would I want it at all if I was Mafia? Obviously I'm asking for it so I can be protected tomorrow night.

To prove against your theory of the Mafia KP going down had I been incarcerated, if KarlaKGB incarcerates me next time like I asked him to, tomorrow night, it will prove to the rest of us that I am not Mafia. (provided I'm not lynched) If he wanted to incarcerate me on Night 1/Day 2, why can't he incarcerate me on Day 3? The fact is, providing no Mafia are killed this next night, the Mafia KP would not go down if I was incarcerated because I am town. If it did go down, you all have definitive evidence that I would be Mafia and you could not waste a lynch on me then and just get a Vigi to shoot me down the following night. (Or an Assassin)

As a whole your post is pretty much summed up as:
You think I'm scum because of less smileys and because I didn't want you to waste an incarceration. The smileys thing can be a good point but for me, that's just because I've gotten more used to playing the game each round.

A main reason for the incarceration is because while I do want it myself this next night, I think it would be better (even if you have 3) to save them on for late game when there's fewer players, and the incarcerations would probably be more important in saving crucial players. Although I do applaud you on your role deduction. In your post though, you say this:
KarlaKGB said:
I know I'm pressuring him and coming across as fishing for roles, hence why he could be so defensive, but if I'm offering to save him, that should give him an indication that I'm genuine. And if I didn't actually incarcerate him that night, he could easily call me out for it. In fact at this stage, I'm already certain he's a blue, and would have just quietly killed him if I was Mafia.
Now you say this, but you told me yourself that you would think that I had found a medic or someone to protect me. Who's saying I haven't found a medic to protect me, which is why I didn't want to have your incarceration wasted? Through this, you yourself would know not to target me which would be a perfect reason to plan this all previously, not waste a hit on me, and then use my non-incarceration against me. Perhaps that's why some more out there players were killed? (Sorry FireNinja1 and kerryelizabeth, it still struck me as weird why you two were killed)

I'd like to emphasise this again:


This is a common Mafia tactic. Say something that scum would do, but then immediately discredit it. What effect does this have? It makes it look like you are actively contributing to scumhunting, but at the same time you're leaving yourself an out, in case you ever fall into that trap.

It's also a town tactic explaining what I think the Mafia are doing.

Great morning post, Karla.
I never thought about taking post attitude into consideration and that was really interesting.

This is kind of irrelevant now but I did this last game about Kayla being all serious with me when she usually types less seriously with me, and then she turned out to be mafia. But of course, yeah I did nothing about that.


Now, I'm going to convey my own suspicions. I am not too sure, but KarlaKGB is being slightly fishy. Possibly just his style to try and lynch me, but I'm not totally sure after he ignored me all those times about wanting an incarceration the next night/day cycle. If he wanted to incarcerate me, why is he not taking my thoughts on it into consideration, when he asked me for them? Why doesn't he want to incarcerate me when I want to be incarcerated? I also did not mind roleclaiming to him because as a townie, even if he is mafia it wouldn't be in his interest to kill a townie, he wants to get rid of the bigger roles. However, I think the more suspicious (more openly suspicious anyway) of the two elected roles is Trundle:

As Justin pointed out, Trundle asking for all the Veterans to claim to him. Why would he want to do that, after the countless times that KarlaKGB (and him) have said to not role-claim unless you fully trust someone (provided that you are an important role, as townies don't have a lot to hide anyway as the Mafia knows who the Town are and can just automatically think of people are townies) , and especially do not automatically trust the elected roles? Trundle also didn't run that by with KarlaKGB, which I find weird. It's quite an important thing to post, asking for roleclaims by a number of people and I would definitely run it by my other elected official if I was Mayor/Sheriff before posting. It strikes me as odd.

Also I'd like to note that my previous suspicions on VillageDweller were unaddressed by him until BlueLeaf pointed it out - which probably caused VD to try to defend himself to avoid suspicion ( also fyi, I saw him viewing the thread a few minutes after I posted my suspicions, which he didn't respond to until a few hours after).

Also:


So it is presumably safe to assume that River is Town, and I know I'm town, and that Gandalf is definitely town. He's most likely trying to divert attention towards the "inactives" and trying to conclude from further discussion which might lead him to slip up with the "night for now" message. OK, I admit I only posted one major post at the elections, but what makes me in your suspicion list for that particular reason, VD, other than the fact that I was suspicious on you and that I haven't been posting much?

With my previous suspicions which have been further enhanced by KarlaKGB, I am most likely going to end up voting for VD in around 20~ hours or so - not voting now until I see his side of the argument, which could, maybe, change my mind.

Hi, sorry for not addressing your post then (i actually don't even remember doing that, sorry.) But for this post, KarlaKGB kept asking and he said inactives, so I suggested you. It also had me then look back at your post, and you just seemed to be very clear cut on who your suspicions for mayor, and I just thought it was odd how confident your feelings were with each person. If you are town, you are certainly better this game, but I would think more along the lines of you being mafia which is why you know exactly who to be confident in or not, but you also covered this up with your suspicion about each person running for maoyr. You are still a suspect in my eyes.

Oath - I think I have addressed you asking about protection in my points with KarlaKGB about incarceration

However, I would also like to point out someone who I'm pretty sure is town: River. I don't care if Farobi is mafia or not for this part, but he has also said that he thinks River is a safe town bet so this links to him here kind of. River seems to not be quite as good this game, similar to the last one. Karla pointed out one of her awful posts a while back, and it struck in my memory that in game two she posted that she didn't really know how to play this game as a non-red role. If it's correlating well here, then her bad post should be a good sign of her being a town player, as she isn't as good as she was in the 1st game, where she was Mafia.

The end.
 
Alright, quick skim during my break. I want to at least defend myself for why I did what I did. Firstly, I assumed I was going to be targeted early in the game which is a reason why I ran for election this time. My role was a reason why I casually backed down from gunning so hard to get elected. I was hoping my hit will carry some weight in finding scum, I just wished it happened later on. I assumed me getting hit should be known to all members so I posted. It wasn't my plan to publicly roles claim, yet I didn't want to beat around the bush when Justin asked me to be more direct with my confirmation. If I was going to hide my role and say it was for my own protection, that'd draw more attention to me being more suspicious wouldn't it? I know what I did was bad strategy in my part, and probably for the town, but with a two day to come a with a lynch canidate I wanted to be able to clear my name hoping we wouldn't waste our time with me. I'm still on the Mafia's list regardless if I were a Veteran or if I were protected. I'm hoping no other veteran claimed to Trundle in PM anf hopefully someone from the scum team jumped on the opportunity. I'm not saying to rule me out as Mafia because I understand what I did would be a smart tactic, but dont rule me out as being honest with where I stand and look out for those that may claim.

I noticed Karla made a case against VillageDweller, and I'd like to put in my opinions as well, but I'm getting off my lunch and don't get off work for another four hours. I'll read through some everyone's case and see if I can fine anything may have been missed.
 
My responses

Onto your note about incarceration: I simply didn't want it on night 1 because I didn't want to immediately have a wasted incarceration on Night 1 when I had doubts about being killed anyway, I didn't want to waste it. I find it convenient that you have left out all the parts about me asking for incarceration on Game 2. I asked you that about 3 times in PMs and you conviently ignored me all of those times.

Incorrect, everyone can clearly see you asking for a the N2/D3 incarceration in my post. I didn't include this:
Haven't found out anything.

Are you still up for incarcerating me for Night 2/Day 3?
Because quite frankly I had already gotten the information I wanted out of you. I was pretty sure you were scum, I just wanted a reason to incarcerate you and check KP, or see what excuse you would give for getting out of it. I have no intention of incarcerating you N2/D3 because you'll be dead by then.



I didn't include all the PMs because they went off the topic, but I asked around 3 times to be incarcerated on Night 2/Day 3. Using his logic about not wanting to be incarcerated to not have the Mafia KP go down wouldn't make sense, because why would I want it at all if I was Mafia? Obviously I'm asking for it so I can be protected tomorrow night.

Night 1 is the one night Mafia can be certain to get four hits off, UNLESS one of you gets incarcerated. Also, even you would realise just how audacious it looks to expect to dodge a hit for a second night.

To prove against your theory of the Mafia KP going down had I been incarcerated, if KarlaKGB incarcerates me next time like I asked him to, tomorrow night, it will prove to the rest of us that I am not Mafia. (provided I'm not lynched) If he wanted to incarcerate me on Night 1/Day 2, why can't he incarcerate me on Day 3? The fact is, providing no Mafia are killed this next night, the Mafia KP would not go down if I was incarcerated because I am town. If it did go down, you all have definitive evidence that I would be Mafia and you could not waste a lynch on me then and just get a Vigi to shoot me down the following night. (Or an Assassin)

Next stop WIFOM Town.

Now you say this, but you told me yourself that you would think that I had found a medic or someone to protect me. Who's saying I haven't found a medic to protect me, which is why I didn't want to have your incarceration wasted? Through this, you yourself would know not to target me which would be a perfect reason to plan this all previously, not waste a hit on me, and then use my non-incarceration against me. Perhaps that's why some more out there players were killed? (Sorry FireNinja1 and kerryelizabeth, it still struck me as weird why you two were killed)

Nice try, but there were many high risk town players that night. If you were innocent and wanted to keep your medic safe from me, you would have accepted my incarceration, and directed the medic to protect someone else that night. You didn't even attempt to suggest other at risk players that I should incarcerate instead. All of those would have been visibly pro-town moves. With KP at its highest point in the game, it is imperative that saves are made. Surely you realised this.

Now, I'm going to convey my own suspicions. I am not too sure, but KarlaKGB is being slightly fishy. Possibly just his style to try and lynch me, but I'm not totally sure after he ignored me all those times about wanting an incarceration the next night/day cycle. If he wanted to incarcerate me, why is he not taking my thoughts on it into consideration, when he asked me for them?

I very much took your thoughts into my consideration, look at my analysis of what your actions told me. Me agreeing/disagreeing/saying-nothing about incarcerating you on N2/D3 has no relevance to this. I've explained fully my motives behind approaching you with the offer in the first place.
 
Although Karla made a very good post about VD with a lot of evidence, I think that Trundle is suspicious right now. He has said hinself, as Karla has, that people shouldn't automatically trust people enough to roleclaim straight away. Yes, we elected him as mayor, but that doesn't make him immediately trustworthy. So why would he bother asking veterans to roleclaim to him? As we saw last game, roleclaiming to Kayla and Jubs (in the scum chat we had made a list of people and their roles) was the town's downfall, so no one wo played the previous game is going to be stupid enough to risk the same situation if there is a chance we have elected scum.
 
Although Karla made a very good post about VD with a lot of evidence, I think that Trundle is suspicious right now. He has said hinself, as Karla has, that people shouldn't automatically trust people enough to roleclaim straight away. Yes, we elected him as mayor, but that doesn't make him immediately trustworthy. So why would he bother asking veterans to roleclaim to him? As we saw last game, roleclaiming to Kayla and Jubs (in the scum chat we had made a list of people and their roles) was the town's downfall, so no one wo played the previous game is going to be stupid enough to risk the same situation if there is a chance we have elected scum.

What is your opinion on VD? You very quickly turned attention to Trundle just there without really giving us your own opinion: you simply commented on what Karla did. Do you agree? Disagree? Need more time to think about it?

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your thoughts on Trundle, but it just seems like you're trying to redirect attention.
 
What is your opinion on VD? You very quickly turned attention to Trundle just there without really giving us your own opinion: you simply commented on what Karla did. Do you agree? Disagree? Need more time to think about it?

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your thoughts on Trundle, but it just seems like you're trying to redirect attention.

I think that it is very strange that he would refuse incarceration, especially as he wanted to be elected mainly for protection, but I'm thinking that he could be a vet, and not want to let on to Karla about it incase Karla was scum. This would explain why he wouldnt want incarceration night one as he wouldn't die if shot anyway. Or, he could be mafia, and not want the noticable decrease in KP

This is simply a theory, and I would like to wait for more evidence before I view people as being suspicious enough for me to vote, though.
 
Alright, sorry everyone. When I posted that it was really early in the morning and I wasn't awake. No on PMed me either way. I'll think I'll refrain from posting right when I wake up in the next days. I only read 1-2 posts about it and then I decided to just reply now without reading anything else first so hopefully no one suspects me of being scum.
I just got home and my face hurts really bad from walking in the cold so I'll be back on in 20-30 minutes when I'm not hungry and in pain.
 
I think that it is very strange that he would refuse incarceration, especially as he wanted to be elected mainly for protection, but I'm thinking that he could be a vet, [-]and not want to let on to Karla about it incase Karla was scum. This would explain why he wouldnt want incarceration night one as he wouldn't die if shot anyway. Or, he could be mafia, and not want the noticable decrease in KP[/-]

VD roleclaimed Townie to Karla. So basically this nullifies the rest of your defense toward VD.

- - - Post Merge - - -

I fail at putting a line through the text, sorry.
 
Okay, well, I guess I should post my views on VD now that I have read through the recent posts.


To be honest, it makes no sense as to why he would turn down an incarceration. Hell, if you offer me an incarceration, I'm taking it. I was actually always silently hoping that Kayla would incarcerate me last game. :3 But looking back at those night kills, were actives really the main targets? They weren't, but there is really no way VD would've known that beforehand especially since he says he is a townie.

It has always come across odd to me how some of the earliest voters for VD in the election were such critics of Karla. VD never really did answer any campaign questions, yet he gained a sizable following quickly after being nominated/pushing for himself.

And then there is the point of sparing VD, incarcerating him the next night, and watching the effect it has on Mafia KP, shooting him with a vig if it goes down. I see a strong issues with this strategy:

1.) By sparing VD, we obviously have to lynch someone else. This other lynchee could then be mafia dropping down the Mafia KP down to 3. So, if VD is mafia and incarcerated, there would be no difference in the KP.
 
Alright, I just want to clear up everything. Obviously, I know telling the vets to roleclaim was a huge stupid mistake. It was 7AM, I was in a rush to get ready for school.
I think my morning thoughts behind it were that if all the vets roleclaimed to me, then I would be able to figure out if Laurina was mafia or not. Obviously, this is really stupid, and I was only thinking from a one-sided POV where I knew that I myself was town. Obviously, I realize now that not everyone knows that and that I can't be fully trusted. While I may seem suspicious to some people, I ask that anyone who finds me suspicious, get it out now, and I'll try to answer the best I can. Obviously, I could be lying right now and there's no way for you to know whether I am or not.
I wasn't in any way trying to suspect Laurina in my post, but I was just trying to tell everyone to be careful what you read and believe.
Again, I'm really sorry. I know that I'm completely against impeding town progress by stupid posts, while I ended up doing it myself. With my own logic, I am quite deserving of being lynched right now like I did to Foxwolf64.
 
For future reference, SuperPenguin, it is a lowercase /s/.

Anywho, for everybody suspecting Kippla, I say one thing.

Feel free to differ with my amazing logic, but I didn't die last night, meaning one of two things (from everybody else's point of view):

1- I'm scum, as Mafioso don't kill Mafioso, or, rather, my point...

2- Kippla is not Mafia, because Mafia would have killed me had I been correct. I already see a flaw in this logic, as Mafia might not want to draw suspicion to Kippla even if she (did I get gender right?) is Mafia. Anybody, point out other flaws. I, personally, see this as fairly reasonable logic. But, that's just me.

The only reason I posted this was to say one thing: We don't know if Mafia are extremely experienced players or not. If so, then the flaw pointed out just barely would prove the Mafia to be experienced, or at least knowledgeable. If inexperienced, then my logic might prove true.
 
Okay, well, I guess I should post my views on VD now that I have read through the recent posts.


To be honest, it makes no sense as to why he would turn down an incarceration. Hell, if you offer me an incarceration, I'm taking it. I was actually always silently hoping that Kayla would incarcerate me last game. :3 But looking back at those night kills, were actives really the main targets? They weren't, but there is really no way VD would've known that beforehand especially since he says he is a townie.

It has always come across odd to me how some of the earliest voters for VD in the election were such critics of Karla. VD never really did answer any campaign questions, yet he gained a sizable following quickly after being nominated/pushing for himself.

And then there is the point of sparing VD, incarcerating him the next night, and watching the effect it has on Mafia KP, shooting him with a vig if it goes down. I see a strong issues with this strategy:

1.) By sparing VD, we obviously have to lynch someone else. This other lynchee could then be mafia dropping down the Mafia KP down to 3. So, if VD is mafia and incarcerated, there would be no difference in the KP.

2) WIFOM. So we spare him, incarcerate him next night. What will we actually learn? Nothing, he could be innocent and Mafia, now with full knowledge of our plan and motives, could withhold KP to make him look guilty. KP remains at 4? He could be guilty and by fortune an assassin fired the fourth shot, and they will not want to come out to us if they did.

- - - Post Merge - - -

Anywho, for everybody suspecting Kippla, I say one thing.

Feel free to differ with my amazing logic, but I didn't die last night, meaning one of two things (from everybody else's point of view):

1- I'm scum, as Mafioso don't kill Mafioso, or, rather, my point...

2- Kippla is not Mafia, because Mafia would have killed me had I been correct. I already see a flaw in this logic, as Mafia might not want to draw suspicion to Kippla even if she (did I get gender right?) is Mafia. Anybody, point out other flaws. I, personally, see this as fairly reasonable logic. But, that's just me.

Have I missed something? Why would you be such a big target if Kippla was Mafia? Because of that PM exchange with her?
 
Mafia would have killed me had I been correct.

Why do you think you are so deserving to die?

You thought that you would end up getting lynched Day 1 by the Town, and now you think you will get killed during the Night by Mafia? Why do you think Kippla would want you dead if she is mafia?

- - - Post Merge - - -

2) WIFOM. So we spare him, incarcerate him next night. What will we actually learn? Nothing, he could be innocent and Mafia, now with full knowledge of our plan and motives, could withhold KP to make him look guilty. KP remains at 4? He could be guilty and by fortune an assassin fired the fourth shot, and they will not want to come out to us if they did.

Yeah, we are now looking way too far into the future and talking about What Ifs right now.
I have always been under the impression that Mafia KP would be publicly announced before night in this game just like it always has been, thus pretty obvious to see if it went down. So, yeah...

Will Mafia KP for the night be publicly announced before night starts, and the first Night it was just a mistake that it wasn't?
 
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