# Personality Types on NMT Islands Tied to Time



## AshdewCrossing (Apr 27, 2020)

So I came across this Twitter post saying that certain times will make it more likely to encounter certain personality types, and noon is when the smugs come out.
Recently I did a bit of NMT hunting my own, and on my first trip I noticed that half my encounters were peppies, and on my second there was an overwhelming majority of female personality types. Granted, I only went on about ~40 trips total so it could just be a coincidence.
Has anyone who has been on a high number of trips noticed anything similar?


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## Chibin (Apr 27, 2020)

I feel the same way, I'm watching my friend do some mystery island runs and it looks like the same kind of personality is showing up in the same time span.

I'm not sure if it's coincidence but doesn't feel like it.


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## xara (Apr 27, 2020)

i haven’t gone island hopping in a bit, but i saw in that thread that crankies and lazies show up around the early afternoon and since that’s typically when i go on tours, i have encountered a lot of crankies and lazies during those trips so it’s entirely possible. 

(also, just in case this is real, what time during the day did you find peppy villagers? i need audie lmao)


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## AshdewCrossing (Apr 27, 2020)

xara said:


> i haven’t gone island hopping in a bit, but i saw in that thread that crankies and lazies show up around the early afternoon and since that’s typically when i go on tours, i have encountered a lot of crankies and lazies during those trips so it’s entirely possible.
> 
> (also, just in case this is real, what time during the day did you find peppy villagers? i need audie lmao)


Sorry, I don't remember other than that it was during the day and in the PM, maybe between 3-5? The person in the twitter thread said they found Audie at 2:50pm. Hope you find her!



Chibin said:


> I feel the same way, I'm watching my friend do some mystery island runs and it looks like the same kind of personality is showing up in the same time span.
> 
> I'm not sure if it's coincidence but doesn't feel like it.


Do you remember which personality they were running into and what time it was?

	Post automatically merged: Apr 27, 2020

I have another 50 NMT left so I might spend all of those and record who I run into. If we could get multiple people doing this at different times we could get some interesting data!


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## Magus (Apr 27, 2020)

Whaaaat ? If it's true we need a chart lol
I play mostly during the day because of Miss Covid and so I do Island hopping during the morning or early afternoon, I noticed I've never seen a Cranky or a Smug and only ONE Snooty. And I desperately need Cranky and Snooty


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## Chibin (Apr 27, 2020)

Sorry I didn't keep track of the time, but it was definitely a peppy time.

He saw Cheri and Patty twice...


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## Lavulin98 (Apr 27, 2020)

Here is some data of island hoping at 3-4 pm 

phil
megan
frank
portia
alfonso
peggy
pango
plucky
merengue
fuchsia


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## Chibin (Apr 27, 2020)

I think this might be an outlier but I found Judy around 6:50PM


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## cheezu (Apr 27, 2020)

Does anyone know when Snooties and Jocks appear?
I need both types for my Island.
I'd also like to replace my Normal.


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## sdw4527 (Apr 27, 2020)

cheezu said:


> Does anyone know when Snooties and Jocks appear?
> I need both types for my Island.
> I'd also like to replace my Normal.



When I first did island hopping, I know for sure I encountered a bunch of jocks between 1-2pm. Might've just been a coincidence though.


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## Magus (Apr 27, 2020)

Ok guys I remembered I did some screenshots while I was Island hopping the last time, I have some data :

Quillson - Smug : 2:00pm
Fauna - Normal : 2:09pm
Cally - Normal : 2:15 pm
Pierce - Jock : 2:23 pm
Paolo - Lazy : 2:29 pm
Tank - Jock : 2:35pm
Judy - Snooty : 2:40pm
Anchovy - Lazy : 2:42pm
Ozzie - Lazy : 2:45pm
Mac - Jock : 2:47pm (I even forgot I met him lol)
Tank - Jock : 2:52pm
Audie - Peppy : 2:58pm

It seems there's a little more Jock and Lazy in the list but don't now if it's really significant...


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## Babylon (Apr 27, 2020)

I went about 40 times back to back and this is what I remember encountering:
x3 Pango (snooty)
x2 Vic (cranky)
Dom (jock)
Dobie (cranky)
Molly (normal)
Graham (smug)

I had a feeling it wasn't random because I saw multiple duplicates and I didn't see many cats or rabbits which I have a lot of already.


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## Chibin (Apr 27, 2020)

From what I'm seeing it might be a 60% chance more than other kinds?


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## Magus (Apr 27, 2020)

Babylon said:


> I went about 40 times back to back and this is what I remember encountering:
> x3 Pango (snooty)
> x2 Vic (cranky)
> Dom (jock)
> ...


What was the time of the day you islandhopped ?


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## EvilSide (Apr 27, 2020)

Oh I definitely feel this way too! I remember that the first time I farmed I was surprised at the amount of normals I was getting even though I already had one in my island! I wish I remembered what time it was...


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## Babylon (Apr 27, 2020)

Magus said:


> What was the time of the day you islandhopped ?


Ugh it was a few days ago but I was TTing so that means I would have set my time sometime from 12-2pm.

I distinctly remember NOT seeing a lot of peppy or sisterly personalities.


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## Chris (Apr 27, 2020)

If this is true then once we have more information maybe my hunt for a snooty villager will one day prove successful.  Had terrible luck so far!


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## Magus (Apr 27, 2020)

Babylon said:


> Ugh it was a few days ago but I was TTing so that means I would have set my time sometime from 12-2pm.
> 
> I distinctly remember NOT seeing a lot of peppy or sisterly personalities.


Thanks ! I think I will try within those hours to see...



Vrisnem said:


> If this is true then once we have more information maybe my hunt for a snooty villager will one day prove successful.  Had terrible luck so far!


Same but with Cranky lol


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## Shyria (Apr 27, 2020)

I don't go on huge streaks but I started taking screenshots of everyone I encountered to keep some data...
Here's what I have:

2:42pm - Leonardo (JOCK)
2:51pm - Nan (NORMAL)
2-59pm - Simon (LAZY)
3:01pm - June (NORMAL)
3:05pm - Ken (SMUG)
3:13pm - Biff (JOCK)
3:19pm - Clay (LAZY)
3:21pm - Colton (SMUG)
3:27pm - Egbert (LAZY)
3:28pm - Phoebe (UCHI)
3:35pm - Zucker (LAZY)
3:39pm - Annalise (SNOOTY)
3:41pm - Harry (CRANKY)
3:48pm - Poncho (JOCK)
4:02pm - Drake (LAZY)

So out of the 15 villagers I encountered between 2pm-4pm, lazy is the one I encountered the most with 5 lazy villagers! I also met 3 Jocks, 2 Smugs, 2 Normal.

Went on a few tours another day at night, let's see...
9:38pm - Elise (SNOOTY)
9:48pm - Grizzly (CRANKY)
10:07pm - Rhonda (NORMAL)
10:52pm - Peewee (CRANKY)
11:00pm - Boyd (CRANKY)
11:06pm - Kyle (SMUG)

Not one lazy this time, but 3 out of 6 crankies!
Could be a coincidence.... But I'd like it if there was something more to it hehe!!
Let's see with others data...


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## AshdewCrossing (Apr 27, 2020)

This is my record for 20 trips made at about 9pm, don't think I had enough sample size to deduct which personality is preferred at this hour but it's probably not cranky.



Shyria said:


> I don't go on huge streaks but I started taking screenshots of everyone I encountered to keep some data...
> Here's what I have:
> 
> 2:42pm - Leonardo (JOCK)
> ...



Interesting about the crankies, someone on the Twitter thread (i think) also mentioned the times they come out are related to their sleep cycles, so since crankies sleep the latest it makes sense that you'll be more likely to run into them in the late PMs!


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## Altarium (Apr 27, 2020)

This is interesting and potentially a game-changer! Will be interested in following if there's any updates :O


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## Loriii (Apr 27, 2020)

I'm not sure if this is accurate coz I went island hopping a few days ago (between 2am to 7am) while searching for Whitney (got her at 155th ticket) and I've come across villagers with different  personalities. .


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## Shyria (Apr 27, 2020)

Loriii said:


> I'm not sure if this is accurate coz I went island hopping a few days ago (between 2am to 7am) while searching for Whitney (got her at 155th ticket) and I've come across villagers with different  personalities. .


I mean it's not supposed to be 100% of one personnality, just more chances to encounter certains personnalities at certains times of the day?


But depending on the data it doesn't always seem like there's a pattern.. 

Ashdew you have more Peppy maybe, but other than that yeah I don't know....


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## Solio (Apr 27, 2020)

That tweet won't convince me without some data that supports that theory. Otherwise I'd hesitate to even call that a source. Sounds highly anectodal to me.


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## Magus (Apr 27, 2020)

Yeah I have the feeling with the first datas that it's random as hell.


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## Loriii (Apr 27, 2020)

I'd post my list sometime later. I actually spent around 300 tickets but other than the first 155, I could not remember the time I resumed island hopping plus I went there on different times looking for a specific villager


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## moonolotl (Apr 27, 2020)

I have like 300 NMT that i want to use for island hopping and so when someone moves out id love to research this myself!!


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## Krissi2197 (Apr 27, 2020)

Hm... I feel like this is purely coincidental. Wouldnt this be in the datamines if it were true?


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## maple22 (Apr 27, 2020)

If there is any element of truth to this, I’d love to know when snooty villagers tend to appear (considering I don’t even have one yet).
I haven’t been completely keeping track, but I can say for certain that I have yet to get a single snooty or smug villager on an island (Marshal was my first camper).


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## toonafeesh (Apr 27, 2020)

Honestly it seems purely coincidental :0 I had more consistency with the clothes style/colour theory!


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## BluePing (Apr 27, 2020)

Have a look at the channel ‘tag back tv’ he’s done about 4000 tickets and he’s trying this method and he’s got a list of times and everything, he does a stream around 10pm gmt+1 most nights on island hopping at different in game times to check this


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## sicklewillow (Apr 27, 2020)

The only thing that datamining revealed that the game roll species first and then select from that pool. I was island hopping  second Saturday of this month, I mostly got jock but I went island hopping last Saturday and I don't have much jock this time around.


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## biksoka (Apr 27, 2020)

I saw TagBack TV on youtube was testing this out but didn't know if it was confirmed 

Was going to try and track mine. These were the results from my last island hopping (didn't have too many because I wound up recruiting Tasha)


Goosejock3:58Eloisesnooty4:09Sylvananormal4:11Spikecranky4:20Marshalsmug4:30Pattypeppy4:33Buzzcranky4:35Clydelazy4:42Bonbonpeppy4:48Elviscranky4:49Pangopeppy4:53Goosejock4:57Gretasnooty4:59Mottjock5:03Normanormal5:05Tashasnooty5:12


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## ctar17 (Apr 27, 2020)

Like others have said, I'm hesitant to believe any theories not backed by data.  Most of these so-called theories are patterns that our brains come up with to try and make sense of randomness, and oftentimes, we overthink stuff.

The only theory that has the data to back it up currently is species roll first.  However, I didn't datamine anything (contrary to popular belief, I did NOT hack into the game to get the code) and just collected the data from others and did some proper statistical testing.


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## Shyria (Apr 27, 2020)

I mean on some it does seem like there's something to it and on others it looks completely random... I would say on most actually... So I don't know. I'd be nice to help people island hoping but... Yeah... I'll go have a look at those Tagback TV video though, whatever the results are it's interesting to look into!


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## Chibin (Apr 27, 2020)

at least with this, with more data we can actually see if it's definitely random or not.
If a bunch of people's data contradict each other, then we can call it a "fluke".


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## Lavulin98 (Apr 27, 2020)

Here is more data. I went at 8 pm island hoping

Violet, snooty,

Leonardo, jock

Stella, normal

Coach, jock

Pietro, smug

Renee, uchi

Phil, smug

Roald, jock

Stu, lazy

Stu, lazy

Rodeo, lazy

Stu, lazy

Biff, jock

Roald, jock

only think I can see is that almost no normals.


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## Ninjastatus (Apr 27, 2020)

If somebody sets up a way to track this I did 95 on various days between 6-7pm, 14 smugs out of 95 (which might be significant because I already have 2 smugs on my island:  0.1473 observed vs. 0.084 theoretical smug proportion)


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## Balverine (Apr 27, 2020)

I also got a lot of smugs between 6-7pm! and I also a got a lot between 3-4pm, but none between 12-1pm like the twitter post suggests.


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## Ras (Apr 27, 2020)

I’ll keep an eye on this and if it pans out, I want the peppy times. I only island hop when I can salvage a trip with tarantulas, so maybe I’ve been cutting myself off from peps.


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## ForgottenT (Apr 27, 2020)

Probably just confirmation bias, like all the people making Orville blush for luck.
Would make sense though since different personalities do different things based on time of day.


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## moonchu (Apr 27, 2020)

someone came into my stream while i was island hopping and told me this, i really felt annoyingly hurt about it (which is silly).

i found raymond at like 1AM. *here's the thread* with the villagers i found during my hunting as proof.

don't listen to anything sans proof, this stuff is getting really tiredT. i asked the person to come back with proof of what they were saying, and they said they would - but left instead. unsure if they were a troll or just spreading misinformation, but i hate it.

_EDIT -_ sorry i read this as "only show up" rather than "increased spawn times."
either way, there's hope outside of the alleged times.
you guys got me all hot and bothered now so i'm going to try and figure out the personality types vs general times from my island hopping yesterday lmao

_update - _i categorized all the personalities based on what i found at 12pm until 1am and i still think it's all random.


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## ctar17 (Apr 27, 2020)

moonchu said:


> someone came into my stream while i was island hopping and told me this, i really felt annoyingly hurt about it (which is silly).
> 
> i found raymond at like 1AM. *here's the thread* with the villagers i found during my hunting as proof.
> 
> ...



Yeah I agree and see a lot now pushing this theory but there hasn't been any formal proof to confirm it.  When I was testing for species roll, I actually did find a lot of proof to confirm the species roll theory, and proof _against_ the game rolling personality in any way.


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## Ras (Apr 27, 2020)

Does species roll mean if the first thing I see is a wolf I’m more likely to find wolves on multi islands, or is the roll only good for one island?


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## fallenchaoskitten (Apr 27, 2020)

I will be doing about 80 island hops on Wednesday (finally an open plot~) so I'll record times to check this out further!
I think I will do as another person and take screenshots (so it will have the time) so it will be easier for me rather than writing each one down at the time of encounter.


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## aibo (Apr 27, 2020)

ctar17 said:


> Yeah I agree and see a lot now pushing this theory but there hasn't been any formal proof to confirm it.  When I was testing for species roll, I actually did find a lot of proof to confirm the species roll theory, and proof _against_ the game rolling personality in any way.


And, by the way, if you guys aren't convinced by ctar's painstakingly accurate statistics, the species -> villager roll was confirmed by datamining. The mechanism ctar describes is the one that physically exists ingame.

Here's the word of The Guy (who found the Leif references, among other things, pre-release), if you don't believe us either:






All of these rumors keep starting up because YouTubers pick up on things friends say and then broadcast them to massive audiences. There's nothing to back this up- and the numbers, as well as the code, disagrees. 

I hate to get so worked up, but it is genuinely so frustrating to see people's time wasted and to see players continually get fooled by misinformation!! I'm glad people are open about discussing this on the boards, or we'd be in big trouble.


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## Cadbberry (Apr 27, 2020)

I am pretty sure it is randomized, I went on a 27 ticket tour on stream from 4-6 PM. I ran into 6 Lazy, 5 Jock,  5 Smug, 4 Snooty, 4 Normal, 2 Cranky, and 1 Peppy. Seems very uncoordinated, in a good way, you never knew who you would get.


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## ctar17 (Apr 27, 2020)

aibo said:


> And, by the way, if you guys aren't convinced by ctar's painstakingly accurate statistics, the species -> villager roll was confirmed by datamining. The mechanism ctar describes is the one that physically exists ingame.
> 
> Here's the word of The Guy (who found the Leif references, among other things, pre-release), if you don't believe us either:
> 
> ...



WAIT STOP THE PRESSES :O

So it's confirmed through datamining!

My tests worked!  My analysis worked!  I feel relieved that it's actually correct!


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## aibo (Apr 27, 2020)

ctar17 said:


> So it's confirmed through datamining!
> 
> My tests worked!  My analysis worked!  I feel relieved that it's actually correct!


Oh my god, I thought you knew!! Yes, you were spot on!


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## Khaelis (Apr 27, 2020)

aibo said:


> And, by the way, if you guys aren't convinced by ctar's painstakingly accurate statistics, the species -> villager roll was confirmed by datamining. The mechanism ctar describes is the one that physically exists ingame.
> 
> Here's the word of The Guy (who found the Leif references, among other things, pre-release), if you don't believe us either:
> 
> ...



Yeah, main reason why I relayed the hybrid document into guide form. Was tired of the misinformation being spread.


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## avieators (Apr 27, 2020)

the last time i went island hopping looking for peppies (specifically audie like everyone else lsdkfj), i didn't find a single one and it was abt 3 am...idk what that might mean datawise but i found every personality type but peppy


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## fallenchaoskitten (Apr 27, 2020)

ctar17 said:


> WAIT STOP THE PRESSES :O
> 
> So it's confirmed through datamining!
> 
> My tests worked!  My analysis worked!  I feel relieved that it's actually correct!


Can I be mean and say I wish you were wrong because I want business cat? XP

Awesome job with your study and congrats on your theory being proven as fact. ^-^


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## ctar17 (Apr 27, 2020)

aibo said:


> Oh my god, I thought you knew!! Yes, you were spot on!



I did tests and tests on data collected through playing the game (with the help of others), however, never at one point did I datamine because I lack the ability nor the desire to do so

My conclusions I came to from my testing held with additional testing, however, I could only leave them at that, not say they were the law of the game because I didn't look at the code.


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## dragonair (Apr 27, 2020)

Every time I go island hopping I will usually have my time around 8-9 AM and usually mostly get cranky and normal villagers. I went searching last time for peppy or uchi villagers and had the worst time finding just one, so this honestly wouldn't surprise me. Next time I go island hopping I'll try recording who I get and the times, just for more data.


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## ctar17 (Apr 27, 2020)

dragonair said:


> Every time I go island hopping I will usually have my time around 8-9 AM and usually mostly get cranky and normal villagers. I went searching last time for peppy or uchi villagers and had the worst time finding just one, so this honestly wouldn't surprise me. Next time I go island hopping I'll try recording who I get and the times, just for more data.



Hey sorry, but this theory has already been debunked as false by formal stats testing and dataminers.  Time of day does NOT have an effect on the personality.


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