# Friendship Affects Move Outs! (Villager Move Out Datamine and Calculator)



## Bioness (May 26, 2020)

Based off datamining from Ninji: 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1265341727310860290
*For Thought-Bubble Move outs:*
+- You must have at least 6 villagers for one to ask to move
+- Nobody will ask to move out 5 days after you've told someone "no"
+- After someone has moved out, there's a 15-day cooldown where nobody can ask
+- Villagers are excluded from asking if:
‣ their birthday is in the next 7 days;
‣ their house is being moved;
‣ they were picked the most recent time and told to stay; or
‣ they were the most recent villager to move in* (anecdotal evidence of this one being false, or possibly bugged)

The chances of a villager asking to move out increases slightly each day, until one asks to move out. Answering yes or no to this question resets the chance to the default. This boost caps after 30 days.

Friendship affects the chances for a villager to ask to move out, with a villager with a higher friendship having a noticeably lower chance of asking to move compared to villagers with low friendship - a max friendship villager is 1/10 as likely to ask to move out compared to a 0 friendship villager. Having extra residents on the island reduces this effect, unless they are also building up friendship with your villagers.

*Relative Weights for Villagers Asking to Move Out*
This assumes you are the only person on the island.

Friendship                   | Chance to Move
------------------------------------
0 (Minimum)               | 10x
25 (Newly moved in)  | 9x
30 (Can Gift)               | 9x
60  (Favour Level 3)    | 8x
100 (Favour Level 4)   | 6.6x
150 (Favour Level 5)   | 5x
200 (Favour Level 6)   | 3x
255 (Max)                   | 1x

*Campsite*
For move outs via campsite, villagers in boxes (either moving in or out) are excluded. Villagers that have their house scheduled for moving are also excluded. Each villager is weighted equally to be chosen.

*Villager Moveout  Calculator*








						Villagers Move Out % Calculator
					

OneResidentPlayerOnly  Azarro#8083 from <a href="http://nookplaza.net/">NookPlaza.net</a> has same calculator that requires no sheet copying:,<a href="https://nookplaza.net/tools?tab=move_out">https://nookplaza.net/tools?tab=move_out</a>  File > Make a Copy to use it for your own villagers. Last ...




					docs.google.com
				




*Sources: *Ninji from Twitter, GoldenCrater#7280 from Discord, Ahri#1337 from Discord


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## xara (May 26, 2020)

thank you for sharing!! this is very good info to know ;-;


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## Rosch (May 26, 2020)

Well that sure changes things. There are so many hidden factors we didn't know.


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## Aliya (May 26, 2020)

Thanks for sharing this! I honestly assumed it was purely random since I've had villagers who have just moved in ask to leave almost immediately after and my favorites seemed to ask more often. It's nice to see the campsite weighs everyone the same.


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## Fendi (May 26, 2020)

This is really intriguing, thanks for sharing! I've always struggled to understand the dynamic of how villagers decide to move out, and I felt like there were times I was trying to "calculate" my chances of getting a villager out.


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## jiojiop (May 26, 2020)

Bioness said:


> ‣ they were the most recent villager to move in



This is weird. I had my most recent move-in from the void ask to move out within 5 days of moving in. She moved into the house I had set up to search for a Snooty, so this was a while back.


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## Readinglynatic (May 26, 2020)

Thank you for sharing! I wonder what it means for people who are best friends/ maxed with all their villagers? I know most aren’t but I’ve seen people collecting all theirs and are the chances lower every 15-30 days?  Is it a slower move out process?


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## Bioness (May 26, 2020)

jiojiop said:


> This is weird. I had my most recent move-in from the void ask to move out within 5 days of moving in. She moved into the house I had set up to search for a Snooty, so this was a while back.



Yeah, read the twitter post, Ninji said he was going to do more research since many people are reporting the same thing.

	Post automatically merged: May 26, 2020



Readinglynatic said:


> Thank you for sharing! I wonder what it means for people who are best friends/ maxed with all their villagers? I know most aren’t but I’ve seen people collecting all theirs and are the chances lower every 15-30 days?  Is it a slower move out process?



The rates are compared to each other, if everyone is the same friendship rank, then they have an equal chance of moving out. You can test this in the calculator if you want.


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## Blueskyy (May 26, 2020)

Here is a good video based on the data mining. Makes sense why Aurora’s and Raymond’s bubbles are always favors and not to move on my island.


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## Jared:3 (May 26, 2020)

I don't know if I believe the most recent move-in can't leave, I've had my most recent villager ask to move before so is it just low chances?


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## Clock (May 26, 2020)

This is really helpful! Thanks for sharing!


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## Bioness (May 26, 2020)

AndyP08 said:


> Here is a good video based on the data mining. Makes sense why Aurora’s and Raymond’s bubbles are always favors and not to move on my island.



No offense, but all those videos just use the same exact information I just gave you and will sometimes even add in their own incorrect information or bias. Youtubers at this point are stalking Ninji and other dataminers so that they can get fast content.

You don't really need a 15 minute video telling you something you can read in 3 minutes.


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## Blueskyy (May 26, 2020)

Bioness said:


> No offense, but all those videos just use the same exact information I just gave you and will sometimes even add in their own incorrect information or bias. Youtubers at this point are stalking Ninji and other dataminers so that they can get fast content.
> 
> You don't really need a 15 minute video telling you something you can read in 3 minutes.


None taken so no worries! No harm done here so all good! Just posting something for others to reference that is visual and auditory as well. Thanks for the post, OP!


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## 0orchid (May 26, 2020)

This is strange because I'm most often asked by villagers who have already given me their picture. Either villagers like this or ones who have barely moved in  I guess even with a low probability that has still happened a lot for me with villagers who's pictures I've obtained


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## Blueskyy (May 26, 2020)

0orchid said:


> This is strange because I'm most often asked by villagers who have already given me their picture. Either villagers like this or ones who have barely moved in  I guess even with a low probability that has still happened a lot for me with villagers who's pictures I've obtained


It seems like the ones I have pictures from only ask for favors or want to give me something when they have the bubble. Did you talk to them when they have the bubble to confirm move out dialogue?


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## theravenboys (May 26, 2020)

Thanks so much for sharing this! I'm curious if the manner they were obtained through affects whether or not your newest move-in can ask to move out. One time my newest move-in asked to move, and it was the villager who was the forced move-in from the campsite. Another user said a move-in from the void asked to move out. So I wonder if it's different depending on where you got the villager?? There doesn't seem to be any data pointing to that so far, but if anyone else's most recent move-in has ever asked to move, I'd like to know how you got them!


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## Bioness (May 26, 2020)

AndyP08 said:


> None taken so no worries! Just posting something for others to reference that is visual and auditory as well. Thanks for the post, OP!



Sorry, if I sounded discourteous. I understand some people do find the videos helpful to digest otherwise abstruse information such as those presented in spreadsheets and code. It isn't for me, but to each their own.


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## 0orchid (May 26, 2020)

AndyP08 said:


> It seems like the ones I have pictures from only ask for favors or want to give me something when they have the bubble. Did you talk to them when they have the bubble to confirm move out dialogue?


Yes! My most recent natural move out was Rolf and I just got his pic last week. Meanwhile there are a handful of my villagers who haven't given me their pics who have never asked to move. I get non move-out thought bubbles really often so I just meant the move out dialogue.


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## biksoka (May 26, 2020)

How do we track exact friendship points; would it just be noting, oh it's the first time I can get them a gift - they must be at 30?


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## Blueskyy (May 26, 2020)

Bioness said:


> Sorry, if I sounded discourteous. I understand some people do find the videos helpful to digest otherwise abstruse information such as those presented in spreadsheets and code. It isn't for me, but to each their own.


Yeah different strokes for different folks. That goes for pretty much anything AC. I’ve been looking into this a lot today and it confirms a lot of what is known. I just probably need to better track numerical data for friendship levels of my current villagers. Or just stop caring so much about it


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## Bioness (May 26, 2020)

biksoka said:


> How do we track exact friendship points; would it just be noting, oh it's the first time I can get them a gift - they must be at 30?



Just don't put the friendship points. You can track it by determining when the next level of friendship was reached and how many interactions you have had since then.

	Post automatically merged: May 26, 2020



0orchid said:


> This is strange because I'm most often asked by villagers who have already given me their picture. Either villagers like this or ones who have barely moved in  I guess even with a low probability that has still happened a lot for me with villagers who's pictures I've obtained



If you have a lot of villagers that are high in friendship, then their values start to even out more. The calculator shows this the best.


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## GEEBRASS (May 26, 2020)

jiojiop said:


> This is weird. I had my most recent move-in from the void ask to move out within 5 days of moving in. She moved into the house I had set up to search for a Snooty, so this was a while back.



Do you time travel at all? Wondering if maybe that confuses the various factors.


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## Bk1234 (May 26, 2020)

Everything is lined up for Frita to move out. The most recent villager I said "no" to was Erik. She was a starter villager. However, she has still not moved out despite my time traveling back and forth between the 25th and the 26th (I did it for a while).


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## peachmilke (May 26, 2020)

I could have sword that I've had the most recent villager to move in ask me to move out first before, but maybe I'm going crazy and I did tt a lot so it's hard to truly say!


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## jiojiop (May 26, 2020)

GEEBRASS said:


> Do you time travel at all? Wondering if maybe that confuses the various factors.


It's a good thought, but I didn't at all back then. Even now on my main town, I think I've only changed the time of day within the true day.


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## ctar17 (May 26, 2020)

OP, what's your Discord username?

I'm pretty active in that channel on Discord as well (same username and profile pic, although I do have a "stats girl" label on my name)

As far as the most recent asking to move out, it hasn't happened to me ever, and I believe the most recent field of thought among us dataminers and stats people was it's some sort of a glitch. (like not getting a smug as your first camper)


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## GEEBRASS (May 26, 2020)

Well, now people are going to start being mean to their villagers, which makes me sad. I'm a sap.


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## Littlered (May 26, 2020)

this is awesome, thanks so much for sharing! it all definitely matches what ive seen, except for the asking to buy stuff off you is only max friendship. shari and plucky have both asked to buy fish or bugs off me and have then displayed them in their house and i'm very confident they are not at max level. are fish and bugs separate i wonder? (i know this is kindve adjacent but i was wondering if anyone knows anything about it)


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## Bioness (May 26, 2020)

ctar17 said:


> OP, what's your Discord username?
> 
> I'm pretty active in that channel on Discord as well (same username and profile pic, although I do have a "stats girl" label on my name)
> 
> As far as the most recent asking to move out, it hasn't happened to me ever, and I believe the most recent field of thought among us dataminers and stats people was it's some sort of a glitch. (like not getting a smug as your first camper)



Bioness #5469. I never post on the ACNH discord, just lurk. I hope I am not out of line sharing this information. I find it fascinating and feel the more people that know about it the greater our understanding of the game will be.


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## ctar17 (May 26, 2020)

Bioness said:


> Bioness #5469. I never post on the ACNH discord, just lurk. I hope I am not out of line sharing this information. I find it fascinating and feel the more people that know about it the greater our understanding of the game will be.



Yes it's fun to participate too!  I love seeing TBTers in the big discord!


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## DJStarstryker (May 26, 2020)

GEEBRASS said:


> Well, now people are going to start being mean to their villagers, which makes me sad. I'm a sap.



I don't see the point of being mean to them. Just ignore them and don't build up friendship via talking to them or gifting or doing tasks for them. Then they will be more likely to ask than your other villagers according to this datamine.


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## GEEBRASS (May 26, 2020)

Littlered said:


> this is awesome, thanks so much for sharing! it all definitely matches what ive seen, except for the asking to buy stuff off you is only max friendship. shari and plucky have both asked to buy fish or bugs off me and have then displayed them in their house and i'm very confident they are not at max level. are fish and bugs separate i wonder? (i know this is kindve adjacent but i was wondering if anyone knows anything about it)



I think there are two different kinds of this that occur - the first is when you have a fish or bug in your inventory and you repeatedly talk to a villager and after a few chat prompts they ask to buy your fish or what have you. It seems like this one can happen in the middle-friendship range. The other is when a villager will run up to you calling your name and ask to buy something you have in your inventory. I think this only happens at highest friendship level.


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## John Wick (May 26, 2020)

That's odd, as Wolfgang asked to move out a couple of days after moving in.


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## Littlered (May 26, 2020)

GEEBRASS said:


> I think there are two different kinds of this that occur - the first is when you have a fish or bug in your inventory and you repeatedly talk to a villager and after a few chat prompts they ask to buy your fish or what have you. It seems like this one can happen in the middle-friendship range. The other is when a villager will run up to you calling your name and ask to buy something you have in your inventory. I think this only happens at highest friendship level.


that makes sense, that was the case for both those trades my villagers initiated. thanks for replying!


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## fairyring (May 26, 2020)

yeah june asked to leave my friend's island the day after she was out of boxes, so i feel like that one is not true


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## Sholee (May 26, 2020)

my fav villager who i talk to and gift everyday, is most frequently in bubbles and wants to move.(I do TT often)  So i don't believe having higher friendship points makes them want to leave less.

I've also had my recent move in want to move as well.


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## Mo Notony (May 26, 2020)

DJStarstryker said:


> I don't see the point of being mean to them. Just ignore them and don't build up friendship via talking to them or gifting or doing tasks for them. Then they will be more likely to ask than your other villagers according to this datamine.


Well I don't believe it's accurate. I am ignoring Phoebe and also hitting her randomly with my net and giving her trash and NOT ONCE (and she's been with me since day 1 because she was an original) has YET to ask to move....everyone else I'm friends with on my island and I love and they've just about all asked at least once to leave.


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## Arckaniel (May 26, 2020)

Lol I'm trying to get the villager pictures asap of the ones I want to move out and giving them wrapped hanging terrarium while the ones I want to stay I'm just giving wrapped foreign fruit for now, so basically that'll mean that the ones I want to keep will have a higher chance of wanting to move out instead since their friendship level would significantly be lower by now lol  tysm for this datamine, really helps


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## brutalitea (May 26, 2020)

A 15 day cooldown is too long imo.... I want to cycle out faster without having to resort to TT-ing...


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## niko@kamogawa (May 26, 2020)

This is really helpful! Thanks for sharing! 

I did my own experiment as well when moving out a villager. (I am not a time traveler, by the way.)

Pekoe wanted to move yesterday. Instead of responding to it, I closed my game and didn't talk to her.

For today, she still requested to move. (I was hoping to get someone else move instead.) I am not sure if this is something that you can pass onto another villager. But it looks like the game remembers still that a specific villager wants to move.


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## ThePhantom (May 26, 2020)

So does this confirm that hitting/pushing villagers will increase chance of them asking to move out (since that decreases friendship)? All those rumors early on were actually true??


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## Chiana (May 26, 2020)

How can you tell what the specific friendship level is with a villager?


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## a sprout (May 26, 2020)

Yo, this is really interesting. Thank you!


Chiana said:


> How can you tell what the specific friendship level is with a villager?


Um, I saw a video by Mayor Mori! He sorta chunks it up into the same 6 sections as the post. 1 being the lowest, and 6 being the highest.
If you're friends with your villager (level 1-2), Villagers will give you gifts and will accept daily gifts from you.
If you're good friends with your villager (level 3-4), villagers will sell you items, give nicknames, and offer for you to change their catchphrase.
If you're best friends with your villager (level 5-6), villagers will let you change their greeting, obtain their picture, and offer to buy and trade items from you.
Other than that, I wouldn't really be able to know specifically with where you stand with the villager.;; There might be a way, but I dunno.




 (Mayor Mori's video)


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## Sheando (May 27, 2020)

I’m sure a lot of people will love the idea that lower friendship villagers ask to move more frequently, and it makes logical sense, so I’m not upset. But I’m a little saddened that there’s a mechanical “disadvantage” to being friendly to everyone. I definitely have some villagers I would prefer to move out, but I don’t enjoy ignoring or mistreating anyone. The villager cap is low enough without me rejecting half my town! I’ll just talk to everyone, but try to be friendlier with my favorites.


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## Morningowl (May 27, 2020)

Its bad the interest part to me is when Ninji says in same thread of tweets “either way, that's it. there is no magic method to make villagers move out, sorry. you can manipulate it _slightly_ but it's still heavily chance-based”  

Also the point some said earlier in this thread if all the villager are at pretty same friendship level then they seem to have to similar chances to move out.  I don’t know if any of this will encourage more to being mean to their villagers because people already doing that.


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## Bioness (May 27, 2020)

yatsushiro said:


> This is really helpful! Thanks for sharing!
> 
> I did my own experiment as well when moving out a villager. (I am not a time traveler, by the way.)
> 
> ...



If what you say is correct, I think you were unlucky in that it selected her again. Normally closing the game will cause it to transfer, assuming you didn't talk to her later.


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## niko@kamogawa (May 27, 2020)

Bioness said:


> If you say is correct, I think you were unlucky in that it selected her again. Normally closing the game will cause it to transfer, assuming you didn't talk to her later.



I wasn't patient enough then. Pekoe has max friendship with me. By right, she should have the lowest chance along with Diana to request moving away. Anyway, I decided to say "no" today and I will wait for five days. Honestly, this is a painful experience to those players who don't time travel. Thanks for responding to my concern though. I appreciated it.


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## Sefyre (May 27, 2020)

RNG is so weird sometimes.

Fuchsia is one of my starters and she's one of my first friendship-maxed animals who's given me her photo. Rowan is my other starter who is also friendship-maxed.

In spite of this, Fuchsia was the one who asked to move when villager 7 moved in.

Before that, villager 3 asked to move when villager 6 moved in and my relationship with 3 was significantly better than my relationship with with 4 and 5.


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## Cethosia (May 27, 2020)

So if you do the campsite method, you can prevent one from being chosen by asking Nook to move their house? I assume just holding onto the moving kit would be enough?


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## cheezu (May 27, 2020)

This does seem strange as I often have villagers with high friendship asking me to move out (Sherb has already asked to move out TWICE and he's given me his picture).
I suppose I'll just start ignoring the ones I want gone from now on though just to be safe.


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## Underneath The Stars (May 27, 2020)

this is really really helpful! thanks for sharing.. though i'm shocked that it seems like villagers i have high friendship with still wants to move out (i ignore the thought bubble in the morning sometimes hoping it moves to a new villager)


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## brockbrock (May 27, 2020)

Wow, that really blows what we thought we knew about the moving out process out of the water (and now I feel bad for telling so many people that it made no difference if you hit them with a net, etc).

All of my island's recent villager requests to move out have come from my 4 newest villagers (apart from the newest addition) whom I know I have not spend enough time and effort cultivating a friendship with yet, so it makes sense.


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## Solio (May 27, 2020)

So if anyone's curious, here's the formula that calculates each villagers chance to be selected for the moveout bubble (source ninji):

"if these checks pass, a random villager will be picked who will ask to move out each villager's chance is based on friendship and calculated by floor((300 - a) / 10) - r a = average friendship they have with all island residents r = amount of residents with >200 friendship ". (residents being the human characters: r maxes at 8, "floor" is a function for rounding down)

Sooo, lets say there is 1 player character and the villagers is at max. friendship with them (a = 255),

floor((300 - 255) / 10) - 1
floor(4.5)-1
4 - 1
= 3

And the same with default friendship (a = 25)

floor((300 - 25) / 10) - 0
Floor((27.5)
= 27

So the values presented in the OP seem to be correct. The factor is x9. (That is, if the formula provided by ninji is correct.)
Hmmm... Interesting, so it seems that friendship plays indeed a major role when the game picks someone to move out.
Well, in theory, that is...
However, I experienced several instances that contradict the statements presented:
_ Ive had villagers ask to leave with less than 5 days appart, eventhough I finished the conversation, saved and didnt timetravel in between.
-Ive had my most recent villager ask to move out. Multiple times.


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## AshdewCrossing (May 27, 2020)

> For move outs via campsite, villagers in boxes (either moving in or out) are excluded. Villagers that have their house scheduled for moving are also excluded. Each villager is weighted equally to be chosen.



Hold up...I had a villager in boxes and a campsite visitor on the same day. I invited the campsite visitor and they chose to 'kick' the villager that was already in boxes. Am I misreading this?
Also wouldn't this create a situation where you'd have 2 villagers in boxes on the same day?


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## Manah (May 27, 2020)

Oh well, good thing I can reset the campsite to pick a villager I want out. Not gonna bother with micromanaging villager interactions.


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## Lattecakes (May 27, 2020)

yatsushiro said:


> This is really helpful! Thanks for sharing!
> 
> I did my own experiment as well when moving out a villager. (I am not a time traveler, by the way.)
> 
> ...


 I tried that as well and it happened to me. Marshal had a bubble to move out. As soon as he asked to move out, I didn't finish the dialog and just force closed the game. When I went back into the game, alas, it was him with the bubble asking me to leave agai. Tried it once more and got the same result. As for this method, I saw a youtuber doing it and got the bubble to successfully move onto a different person but if I remember correctly, it was because he forced closed and then TTed...i could be wrong tho! My memory has been slacking lately lol.


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## cheezu (May 27, 2020)

Lattecakes said:


> I tried that as well and it happened to me. Marshal had a bubble to move out. As soon as he asked to move out, I didn't finish the dialog and just force closed the game. When I went back into the game, alas, it was him with the bubble asking me to leave agai. Tried it once more and got the same result. As for this method, I saw a youtuber doing it and got the bubble to successfully move onto a different person but if I remember correctly, it was because he forced closed and then TTed...i could be wrong tho! My memory has been slacking lately lol.


The bubble will stay on that villager for that day. It has a chance of moving to someone else in the following days.


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## Lattecakes (May 27, 2020)

cheezu said:


> The bubble will stay on that villager for that day. It. has a chance of moving to someone else in the following days.


Ahhh!! Thanks for confirming that for me   makes me wish I TTed lolol.


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## cheezu (May 27, 2020)

Lattecakes said:


> Ahhh!! Thanks for confirming that for me   makes me wish I TTed lolol.


Yeah, I think sometimes even the next day it might still be the same villager but it should swap over to someone else after that.


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## wolfie1 (May 27, 2020)

It's nice to finally know that friendship does in fact affect your chances of successfully moving someone out. I'm sad that this will probably mean that people will start being mean(er) to villagers they want to kick out, but oh well.



brutalitea said:


> A 15 day cooldown is too long imo.... I want to cycle out faster without having to resort to TT-ing...



Once that cooldown has passed, you can start hitting villagers you want to stay if they have a bubble. Just once is fine. The next day, someone else will have a bubble, until it's on someone you want to kick out. That's what I've been doing and I've moved out two villagers without TT'ing. I'm trying to move out a third villager, but I'm not sure if the cooldown has passed yet or not.


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## Yaan (May 27, 2020)

How interesting! Means people's guesses and findings make sense seeing mined data. Also explains why new or high friendship villagers have asked to move out!


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## Baroque (May 27, 2020)

Interesting. So hitting them with the net actually does impact whether or not they stick around? Haha.


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## Bioness (May 27, 2020)

Baroque said:


> Interesting. So hitting them with the net actually does impact whether or not they stick around? Haha.



Yeah, so I guess we will see villager abuses skyrocket.

Really if you want a specific villager to leave, using an amiibo is the best way, if possible.


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## Baroque (May 27, 2020)

Bioness said:


> Yeah, so I guess we will see villager abuses skyrocket.
> 
> Really if you want a specific villager to leave, using an amiibo is the best way, if possible.



That’s what I’ve been doing since I already had a bunch of Amiibo cards leftover from half a decade ago when I played New Leaf but if you want one of the new villagers like Raymond, Dom, Audie or Sherb or something, you really need an empty spot :/


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## Chiana (May 27, 2020)

a sprout said:


> Yo, this is really interesting. Thank you!
> 
> Um, I saw a video by Mayor Mori! He sorta chunks it up into the same 6 sections as the post. 1 being the lowest, and 6 being the highest.
> If you're friends with your villager (level 1-2), Villagers will give you gifts and will accept daily gifts from you.
> ...




Thanks.  That was helpful.  I must have a few at max, but no pictures yet.  My 10th resident is at the lower level and the other three in the middle.


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## Miss Misty (May 27, 2020)

One thing to note is that Ninji said that the friendship mechanic is RNG based on the friendship levels of the villagers on your island. So if you are equally nice to everyone, the odds will remain roughly equal. If you don't want to be mean, the easiest method is to just play normally and ignore thought bubbles when they are on villagers you want to keep.


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## greenvoldemort (May 27, 2020)

thanks for sharing this info!


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## BeezyBee (May 27, 2020)

Thanks for sharing this info!

I wonder if kicking villagers out via the campsite makes the 15 day cool down commence as well.


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## cheezu (May 27, 2020)

Am I the only one who kind of has an issue with just hitting and being mean to the villagers - especially considering I have some of their photos up in my house and they've been on my island since the start?
I know that they're not real and it's just pixels behind the screen but I think it kind of would ruin the game for me especially since I decided to be more open to villagers I wouldn't usually go for this time around.
I think I'd ONLY do it if they were literally like "okay, you hit me. I'm moving now, "b**ch".
What I'll do instead is start ignoring them from now on until they move.


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## naranjita (May 27, 2020)

ngl, I'm a bit upset that friendship levels affect move outs after all, because it means people are gonna feel justified in hitting their villagers lol. I know they're just pixels and lines of code and it's not that deep etc etc but it still bothers me :<


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## KainAronoele (May 27, 2020)

Bk1234 said:


> Everything is lined up for Frita to move out. The most recent villager I said "no" to was Erik. She was a starter villager. However, she has still not moved out despite my time traveling back and forth between the 25th and the 26th (I did it for a while).


Have you gotten rid of her? My friend is wanting her so badly. I will buy from you if you yet her in boxes


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## Aleigh (May 27, 2020)

Jared:3 said:


> I don't know if I believe the most recent move-in can't leave, I've had my most recent villager ask to move before so is it just low chances?


Same. Tom asked to move out when he was the most recent move-in. I told him no obviously. But anyway, just thought I'd add that lmao


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## KainAronoele (May 27, 2020)

cheezu said:


> Am I the only one who kind of has an issue with just hitting and being mean to the villagers - especially considering I have some of their photos up in my house and they've been on my island since the start?
> I know that they're not real and it's just pixels behind the screen but I think it kind of would ruin the game for me especially since I decided to be more open to villagers I wouldn't usually go for this time around.
> I think I'd ONLY do it if they were literally like "okay, you hit me. I'm moving now, "b**ch".
> What I'll do instead is start ignoring them from now on until they move.


I feel the same. I'm too empathetic so I feel bad even if they're like SUPER ugly. I had Rodney (acne face hamster) and though I hated him I almost got depressed seeing him sit alone by the pond watching bugs and singing to them then huffing softly and staring into the pond with a sad frown... i had put him on a cliff with no incline so he was practically stuck up there.. it made me feel horrible lol.


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## BambieTheMayor (May 27, 2020)

When non-amiibo campsite villagers move onto the island, does that reset the 15 day wait period for villagers asking to move out?


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## Miss Misty (May 27, 2020)

BambieTheMayor said:


> When non-amiibo campsite villagers move onto the island, does that reset the 15 day wait period for villagers asking to move out?


In my experience, no. I had a campsite villager move in, then I had a villager request to move five days later.


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## Hanif1807 (May 28, 2020)

This is very informative. Thanks for sharing

Now i know Dotty won't ask me to move out soon, i guess lol


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## cheezu (May 28, 2020)

BambieTheMayor said:


> When non-amiibo campsite villagers move onto the island, does that reset the 15 day wait period for villagers asking to move out?


No, amiibo villagers don't affect natural move-outs.


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## Sefyre (May 28, 2020)

Some thoughts:

Villagers get thought bubbles for different reasons. Here is a list:

- they have a non-moving concern they want you to address (multiple sorts)
- they have a favor to ask
- they want to give, sell, or trade something
- asking about moving

And first 3 reasons aren't bad and can improve friendship! ... Of course, it's also possible they'll ask about moving.

Now, suppose you're unlucky and the thought bubble keeps sticking to a villager you want to keep.

Could the constant ignoring of the thought bubble end up being detrimental if you're still in the process of building up a good relationship with them?

I ask because I've had two thought bubbles to move, but all the rest were positive friendship influences.


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## Bioness (May 28, 2020)

Sefyre said:


> Some thoughts:
> 
> Villagers get thought bubbles for different reasons. Here is a list:
> 
> ...



You're not suppose to ignore the thought bubble and people who frequently cycle villagers can usually tell what kind bubble a villager will have. Ignoring a villager does nothing to friendship.

If you just logged in for the first time today and see a thought bubble and it has been an appropriate amount of time since the last moving bubble, then that villager will most likely ask to move.

Very rarely do the moving bubbles occur later in a play session.


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## marea (May 28, 2020)

I thought this was totally random so i just went ahead and started talking to everyone and giving them stuff daily. Now that i think about it, when i was trying to do the campsite method, the ones who asked me to move out were two of my last three move ins who i unintentionally ignored almost since they moved in, because i was busy tting.


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## alpacalypse (May 28, 2020)

i’ve been wondering about when during the day the thought bubble can occur o: i’ve been tracking move-out dates, and i knew that i was due for a new move-out request about two days ago, so i was on the look-out for a thought bubble. many villagers i wanted to move out had one—rodeo, nana, cousteau, hazel—but they all ended up being requests. i thought that there just wasn’t a thought bubble that day and decided to wait until tomorrow, but later coco asked me to move! i thought it was really weird, because i’m absolutely positive that i had already spoken to her several times that day (she’s one of the villagers i always speak to if i pass by her), and i read from others’ posts that these thought bubbles usually don’t occur later in the day. i wonder how that happened?


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## Karatekid5 (Jun 16, 2020)

alpacalypse said:


> i’ve been wondering about when during the day the thought bubble can occur o: i’ve been tracking move-out dates, and i knew that i was due for a new move-out request about two days ago, so i was on the look-out for a thought bubble. many villagers i wanted to move out had one—rodeo, nana, cousteau, hazel—but they all ended up being requests. i thought that there just wasn’t a thought bubble that day and decided to wait until tomorrow, but later coco asked me to move! i thought it was really weird, because i’m absolutely positive that i had already spoken to her several times that day (she’s one of the villagers i always speak to if i pass by her), and i read from others’ posts that these thought bubbles usually don’t occur later in the day. i wonder how that happened?



You're not alone, that happened to me with Mac the other day. It's very bizarre!


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## Sharksheep (Jun 16, 2020)

alpacalypse said:


> i’ve been wondering about when during the day the thought bubble can occur o: i’ve been tracking move-out dates, and i knew that i was due for a new move-out request about two days ago, so i was on the look-out for a thought bubble. many villagers i wanted to move out had one—rodeo, nana, cousteau, hazel—but they all ended up being requests. i thought that there just wasn’t a thought bubble that day and decided to wait until tomorrow, but later coco asked me to move! i thought it was really weird, because i’m absolutely positive that i had already spoken to her several times that day (she’s one of the villagers i always speak to if i pass by her), and i read from others’ posts that these thought bubbles usually don’t occur later in the day. i wonder how that happened?



Were you talking to Coco inside her house or building? The thought bubble doesn't appear unless they are outside walking about.


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## alpacalypse (Jun 16, 2020)

Sharksheep said:


> Were you talking to Coco inside her house or building? The thought bubble doesn't appear unless they are outside walking about.


it’s been a while since it happened, but i’m fairly positive that it was outside! i recall running back and forth on my island to finish up my daily tasks, talking to coco each time i passed by the plaza as she strolled around in her work-out clothes, and suddenly she had a thought bubble that led to a move-out request! it was such a baffling moment to me that i remember the details pretty well c’:


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## saucySheep (Sep 28, 2020)

hi can u help me kick out lucy or coco. i have cocos photo but not lucy's, lucy is the newest move-in too, and i can't tt. is there a method that doesn't require tt? or if not can you just tell me the probability of them leaving? Lucy has asked me to do favors for her a few times


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## Miss Misty (Sep 28, 2020)

saucySheep said:


> hi can u help me kick out lucy or coco. i have cocos photo but not lucy's, lucy is the newest move-in too, and i can't tt. is there a method that doesn't require tt? or if not can you just tell me the probability of them leaving? Lucy has asked me to do favors for her a few times


Amiibo is the only method that will give you instant gratification. If you don't have an Amiibo card you want to use and you can't TT, you'll have to wait for move-out season. Per the datamine, there is a 15 day cooldown from when you last had an empty plot before someone will ask to move again. 

When the 15 day cooldown is up, talk to anyone who has a bubble over their head. If they ask to move and you want them to stay, use the home button to go to the menu and exit out of the game without finishing the dialogue. I recommend following the villager around before talking to them (keeping them on-screen so the bubble doesn't disappear) until you see the autosave indicator go through its full cycle, to minimize what gets lost when you reset. The next day, the game will re-roll which villager asks to leave. It's tedious, but it's the only way to have control over your move outs if you can't TT.


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## Dracule (Sep 28, 2020)

Yo, this calculator is insaneee . I didn’t even know there was a 15 day cooldown? That’s much better than with ACNL.


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## Peach_Jam (Sep 28, 2020)

oh man this is helpful 0: I remember getting a villager to move out used to be kind of vague, and mainly relied on the thought bubble and that's it. I had no idea there was a 15-day cool down period or that no one will ask to move for 5 days after you say "no" :')


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