# Collectible Price Guide (Using confidence intervals)



## Jacob4 (Feb 15, 2016)

*THE COLLECTIBLE PRICE GUIDE*

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*NAVIGATION*

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Market Prices | Collectibles I most need more data for

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*GENERAL OUTLINE OF THIS GUIDE*

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As you can probably gather from the title, I am going to make a price guide on TBT collectibles, but in a rather different fashion to the other guides.

I will be using confidence intervals in order to estimate the approximate mean (average price) for a given collectable. Namely, I will be using a 95% confidence interval (meaning the true mean/average price of the collectible has a 95% chance of being in the given range). This should give people a pretty good idea of what the current price range is.

PLEASE HELP ME KEEP THIS GUIDE AS ACCURATE AS POSSIBLE! Find out how on the "HOW YOU CAN HELP MAINTAIN THE GUIDE" spoiler under the "MORE INFORMATION" section below. Thanks!

*PLEASE BUMP THIS THREAD WHEN YOU CAN SO PEOPLE SEE IT!*

Hopefully this guide should be of use to those who are unsure of collectible prices, and want a more factual based methodology for finding the price ranges of collectibles.

*NOTE: The price ranges I give are only a guide and they are not to control what price you buy/sell for - that is your own choice*

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*FURTHER INFORMATION*

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Spoiler: METHOD OF OBTAINING PRICES



*METHOD OF OBTAINING PRICES*
In order to find a 95% confidence interval for a given collectible, I will use 5 different prices where a successful trade has taken place for the given collectible, and then I will find the mean and standard deviation of this set of data. For example, if I find the data values of the cherry collectible to be 250, 100, 200, 200, 225, there will be a mean of 195 and a standard deviation of approximately 57. In order to find the range of the confidence interval, we use (μ - σ/√n * 1.96, μ + σ/√n * 1.96), where *μ* is the mean value of the set of data, *σ* is the standard deviation of the set of data, *n* is 5 (amount of data values used) and *1.96* is the necessary z value or constant needed to generate the probability of an overall 95% chance for the mean value to lie within the resulting range. For the data set of 250, 100, 200, 200, 225, where the mean is 195 and standard deviation is approx 57, we find that the 95% confidence interval is (195 - 57/√5 * 1.96, 195 + 57/√5 * 1.96), which leads to an approximate range of 145 - 245 or (145, 245). Hence, we are 95% certain that the true average for the price of a cherry collectible lies between 145TBT and 245TBT.





Spoiler: HOW OFTEN THIS GUIDE WILL BE UPDATED



*HOW OFTEN THIS GUIDE WILL BE UPDATED*
As you can probably tell from the methodology above, a disadvantage of this is that it will be quite tedious for me to work out all of these values, which is why I have used a smaller sample size (5) so that it takes less effort to find prices - however, theoretically, if a larger sample size was used, the 95% confidence interval would have a much smaller range (more accurate).
I will only update the prices for collectibles when I feel it is necessary (I will not update everything at once). I will update collectibles as frequently as possible - I will try to make it so that all prices are suitable for the current time.
The price ranges I obtain will always be corresponding and relevant to the price of the collectible at the current time.





Spoiler: WHICH GUIDE TO USE



*WHICH GUIDE TO USE*
You can also look at Sholee's guide on the price of collectibles for a different methodology on finding the prices of collectibles, which is more opinion based than mine (which can sometimes be more accurate, and sometimes is not). It would actually be a good idea to grasp both guides to get a less biased estimate for the price range of a given collectible. It is possible that I will make an unbiased range (as well as my own) using price ranges based on Sholee's guide and my guide, using the average minimum price of the given collectible from my guide and sholee's guide, and using the average maximum price of the given collectible from my guide and sholee's guide.





Spoiler: HOW YOU CAN HELP MAINTAIN THE GUIDE



*HOW YOU CAN HELP MAINTAIN THE GUIDE*
I would be very grateful if other users could help by simply saying if a collectible has changed price, or you could post a price for a collectible that has been successful (MUST have been a successful trade). At current it is sometimes difficult to find enough data for some collectibles, so it would really help if people posted prices of successful trades to help out. However, if any arbitrary prices are posted (ones largely outside the current ranges), they will NOT be considered. Also, as I've said before, with a larger sample size for a collectible, the more precise the range for a collectible can be, giving people a better idea of the true price - if many people post prices, I could possibly make the sample size 10 instead of 5 for all collectibles. I really hope we can make this a community effort in order to help others out who are unsure about prices. Also, bumping the thread whenever possible would be a big help. Thank you! 


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## Jacob4 (Feb 15, 2016)

*MARKET PRICES BY CATEGORY*

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*Notes*

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• All price ranges are based on a 95% confidence interval, meaning there is a 95% chance the true population mean will lie in this range/interval
• Average price refers to the middle value of the min and max values from the interval
• If a collectible is not listed, it cannot be gifted
• If it says "_(Estimate)_" after the given price interval, it means it is my own estimate. This means a range has not yet been gathered from other information. This could be done if prices currently range largely, or if I need time to collect data for the collectible.
• All values are given to the nearest TBT

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*C A K E S*

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*Tasty Cake* *|* Price interval: _1 - 29 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _N/A (Currently in store for 29 TBT)_ *|*



*[Stale] Cake **|* Price interval: _257 - 395 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _326 TBT_ *|*



*Chocolate Cake* *|* Price interval: _1276 - 1564 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _1420 TBT_ *|*

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*F R U I T*

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*Pear* *|* Price interval: _1 - 39 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _N/A (Currently in store for 39 TBT)_ *|*



*Orange* *|* Price interval: _1 - 79 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _N/A (Currently in store for 79 TBT)_ *|*



*Cherry* *|* Price interval: _145 - 245 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _195 TBT_ *|*



*Peach* *|* Price interval: _1081 - 1399 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _1240 TBT_ *|*



*Apple* *|* Price interval: _1645 - 2015 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _1830 TBT_ *|*

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*T B T   _F A I R*

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*Pinwheel* *|* Price interval: _18202 - 21398 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _19800 TBT_ *|*



*Green Balloon* *|* Price interval: _1219 - 1561 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _1390 TBT_ *|*



*Blue Balloon* *|* Price interval: _1893 - 2347 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _2120 TBT_ *|*



*Red Feather* *|* Price interval: _1393 - 1607 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _1500 TBT_ *|*



*Yellow Feather* *|* Price interval: _3264 - 3636 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _3450 TBT_ *|*



*Green Feather* *|* Price interval: _1464 - 1676 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _1570 TBT_ *|*



*Blue Feather* *|* Price interval: _1402 - 1838 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _1620 TBT_ *|*



*Purple Feather* *|* Price interval: _13601 - 15599 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _14600 TBT_ *|*



*Pink Feather* *|* Price interval: _17245 - 19355 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _18300 TBT_ *|*



*White Feather* *|* Price interval: _26771 - 29429 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _28100 TBT_ *|*

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*T B T   _B E A C H_ P A R T Y*

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*Popsicle* *|* Price interval: _1433 - 2127 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _1780 TBT_ *|*



*Ice Cream Swirl* *|* Price interval: _835 - 975 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _905 TBT_ *|*

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*E A S T E R*

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*Regular Easter Egg* *|* Price interval: _400 - 500 TBT (Estimate)_ *|* Average Price: _450 TBT_ *|*



*Classic Easter Egg* *|* Price interval: _992 - 1228 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _1110 TBT_ *|*



*Togepi Egg* *|* Price interval: _2444 - 2956 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _2700 TBT_ *|*



*Yoshi Egg* *|* Price interval: _3823 - 4577 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _4200 TBT_ *|*



*Waluigi Egg* *|* Price interval: _601 - 919 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _760 TBT_ *|*



*Sakura Egg* *|* Price interval: _1000 - 1500 TBT (Estimate)_ *|* Average Price: _1250 TBT_ *|*



*Pikachu Egg* *|* Price interval: _1000 - 1500 TBT (Estimate)_ *|* Average Price: _1250 TBT_ *|*



*Candy Egg* *|* Price interval: _2000 - 2750 TBT (Estimate)_ *|* Average Price: _2375 TBT_ *|*



*Dark Egg* *|* Price interval: _5000 - 7000 TBT (Estimate)_ *|* Average Price: _6000 TBT_ *|*

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*H A  L L O W E E N*

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*Red Candy* *|* Price interval: _36 - 44 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _40 TBT_ *|*



*Yellow Candy* *|* Price interval: _22 - 38 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _30 TBT_ *|*



*Green Candy* *|* Price interval: _303 - 376 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _340 TBT_ *|*



*Blue Candy* *|* Price interval: _1373 - 1847 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _1610 TBT_ *|*



*Voodoo Doll* *|* Price interval: _299 - 335 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _317 TBT_ *|*



*Ancient Candle* *|* Price interval: _202 - 242 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _222 TBT_ *|*



*Pumpkin Cupcake* *|* Price interval: _203 - 247 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _225 TBT_ *|*

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*J A P  A N E S E_ L E T T E R S*

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*う* *|* Price interval: _1111 - 1529 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _1320 TBT_ *|*



*の* *|* Price interval: _10235 - 12965 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _11600 TBT_ *|*



*森* *|* Price interval: _1419 - 1721 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _1570 TBT_ *|*



*ぶ* *|* Price interval: _1350 - 1610 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _1480 TBT_ *|*



*ど* *|* Price interval: _632 - 740 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _686 TBT_ *|*



*つ* *|* Price interval: _2270 - 2710 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _2490 TBT_ *|*

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*B I R  T H S T O N E S*

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_NOTES: Only giftable once.
These apply for all birthstones EXCEPT the birthstone of the current month, which has a price range of 1 - 299 TBT as it can be bought for 299 TBT in store._





































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Birthstones from January to December* *|* Price interval: _254 - 386 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _320 TBT_ *|*

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*O T H  E R*

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*Toy Hammer* *|* Price interval: _4500 - 6000 TBT (Estimate, no current interval)_ *|* Average Price: _7350 TBT_ *|*



*Pokeball* *|* Price interval: _16514 - 19886 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _18200 TBT_ *|*



*Party Popper* *|* Price interval: _6235 - 7725 TBT_ *|* Average Price: _6980 TBT_ *|*



*Shamrock* *|* Price interval: _400 - 600 TBT (Estimate)_ *|* Average Price: _500 TBT_ *|*



*Weird Doll* *|* Price interval: _N/A_ *|* Average Price: _N/A_ *|*

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## Jacob4 (Feb 15, 2016)

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*COLLECTIBLES I MOST NEED MORE DATA FOR*

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Just thought I'd give you all info on the data of the collectibles so that you have an idea of which ones I am currently struggling with getting data on. However, this does not mean you shouldn't give me prices for other collectibles - they are still very useful.

At the moment, the collectibles that I am lacking most of in terms of the amount of data are:

*All japanese letters, all feathers, pinwheel, green balloon, popsicle, party popper, toy hammer, pokeball, all easter eggs (except waluigi) and blue candy. *

For the rest I have already got or will probably be able to get 10 samples for each collectible, it is only these that I am currently struggling with.

However, for some collectibles such as white feather, pink feather, purple feather, etc, it is likely that there have not even been 10 sales for any of these three, so it will be very hard or impossible to find. Therefore, for collectibles such as these, there will be a relatively large range as I would have to use a smaller sample size.

Also, I plan on making the intervals 99% instead of 95%, meaning the intervals are _VERY_ accurate. However, this also means the intervals will be slightly larger, but I think the accuracy is more important.

Thank you for your help! 

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## Jacob4 (Feb 15, 2016)

reserved


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## Jacob4 (Feb 16, 2016)

reserved


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## Jacob4 (Feb 22, 2016)

THREAD IS NOW OPEN! 

Note that I will make changes to prices when needed, and may also add things to reserved posts.

Feel free to post as you wish, and make sure to read information about the guide.

Please help by bumping the thread and posting the prices for collectibles you sell/buy so I can make ranges even more accurate.

Thank you!


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## King Dorado (Feb 22, 2016)

I and others posted some recent sales reports in sholee's thread if you havent already checked them out.

you may want to add "with confidence intervals" or something in the title to differentiate this from sholee's thread.

also, when i saw "no longer under construction" in the title, i took that to mean you were abandoning the effort.  maybe thats just my reading, but it might be more clear to instead say "ready for use" or something imo.

thnx for your statistical efforts and good luck!


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## kassie (Feb 22, 2016)

thank you for taking out the s p a c e s that were really unnecessary.

good luck and i'll bump when i can!


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## PeeBraiin (Feb 23, 2016)

Sold a choco cake for 1.6k~


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## ZetaFunction (Feb 23, 2016)

Like the set-up.  Good luck running it!

Hopefully now that there are multiple guides, the inflation will stop completely for a bit.


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## Nightmares (Feb 23, 2016)

Ooh awesome guide; super helpful, thank you ^~^

And lmaoo I sold my popsicle for 3.7 xD xD xD
The price has gone down so much in only a few months


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## Jacob4 (Feb 23, 2016)

King Dad said:


> I and others posted some recent sales reports in sholee's thread if you havent already checked them out.
> 
> you may want to add "with confidence intervals" or something in the title to differentiate this from sholee's thread.
> 
> ...


Ahh, okay, I will rewrite the title to make it clear. Thanks for telling 

And yeah, just realised that :O If I get enough data I can potentially make a 99% confidence interval (the range will be extremely accurate).

Thanks again 

- - - Post Merge - - -

Thanks all for the support!


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## Jacob4 (Feb 23, 2016)

BUMP


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## Jacob4 (Feb 23, 2016)

Just thought I'd give you all info on the data of the collectibles so that you have an idea of which ones I am currently struggling with getting data on. However, this does not mean you shouldn't give me prices for other collectibles - they are still very useful.

At the moment, the collectibles that I am lacking most of in terms of the amount of data are:

*All japanese letters, all feathers, pinwheel, green balloon, popsicle, party popper, toy hammer, pokeball, all easter eggs (except waluigi) and blue candy. *

For the rest I have already got or will probably be able to get 10 samples for each collectible, it is only these that I am currently struggling with.

However, for some collectibles such as white feather, pink feather, purple feather, etc, it is likely that there have not even been 10 sales for any of these three, so it will be very hard or impossible to find. Therefore, for collectibles such as these, there will be a relatively large range as I would have to use a smaller sample size.

Also, I plan on making the intervals *99%* instead of 95%, meaning the intervals are _VERY_ accurate. However, this also means the intervals will be slightly larger, but I think the accuracy is more important.

I've also added this information to the navigation on the original post, which leads to the 3rd post of the thread.

Thank you for your help!


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## Jacob4 (Feb 24, 2016)

Bump


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## Kayrii (Feb 24, 2016)

Bought a stale cake yesterday for 300 ^.^ Just bought (in the process of buying) another stale cake for 280 as well xD


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## Kayrii (Feb 24, 2016)

Bought a pumpkin cupcake for 180 - Pretty sure out of love xD But I'll post it here anyway!


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## tae (Feb 24, 2016)

i bought a peach for 1k.


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## Jacob4 (Feb 24, 2016)

Thank you for moreprices^^


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## skarmoury (Feb 24, 2016)

Good luck with this! Statistics is really hard and I commend you for your effort :'D


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## Jacob4 (Feb 25, 2016)

Bump


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## ATotsSpot (Feb 25, 2016)

My, my......how things change when you go away for a few months.  Thanks for doing this!


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## Jacob4 (Feb 25, 2016)

ATotsSpot said:


> My, my......how things change when you go away for a few months.  Thanks for doing this!



You're very welcome


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## Jacob4 (Feb 26, 2016)

bimp


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## Jacob4 (Feb 26, 2016)

bump


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## Jacob4 (Feb 26, 2016)

Bump


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## sej (Feb 27, 2016)

Bump!


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## Jacob4 (Feb 27, 2016)

Sej said:


> Bump!



Why thank you  Bump


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## Jacob4 (Feb 27, 2016)

bump


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## Zura (Feb 28, 2016)

F L a K e said:


> bump



Keep up the good work  
This place is beyond helpful.


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## Jacob4 (Mar 1, 2016)

bump


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## Jacob4 (Mar 2, 2016)

bump


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## King Dorado (Mar 3, 2016)

sold a cherry collectible for 250 forum bells.


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## inkling (Mar 3, 2016)

yay!
as much as i like the other guides and appreciate the work/effort (even though i don't even trade mch blah blah blah) the price "guides" were a bit skewed bc ya math and stuff and i tried to say something but im not the right person lol


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## Jacob4 (Mar 4, 2016)

Bump


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## Jacob4 (Mar 4, 2016)

blimp


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## Jacob4 (Mar 4, 2016)

bump


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## Jacob4 (Mar 5, 2016)

bump


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## uwuzumakii (Mar 6, 2016)

I'ma bump this little number here.


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## Jacob4 (Mar 6, 2016)

BluePikachu47 said:


> I'ma bump this little number here.



Why thank you sir 

BURP


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## ZetaFunction (Mar 6, 2016)

Bought a red candy 
	

	
	
		
		

		
			





 for 30 TBT


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## uwuzumakii (Mar 6, 2016)

Bought a Voodoo Doll for 300 BTB.


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## Jacob4 (Mar 10, 2016)

bump


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## King Dorado (Mar 11, 2016)

bloop


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## King Dorado (Mar 13, 2016)

gloop


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## CuteYuYu (Mar 13, 2016)

Bought a cyan house for 900 recently


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## Jacob4 (Mar 29, 2016)

Bump for the first time in a million years!!

Remember to post here when you sell/buy something guys, and bump it when you can, ^_^ Thanks


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## pandapples (Mar 29, 2016)

Been awhile since I updated either thread..

Bought: green balloon 2k, blue candy 1.3k, teal letter 1.5k, cyan and pink letters together for 1.6k, togepi egg 1.5k (before egg hunt), regular egg 399 (after egg hunt)

Sold: apples 1.5k and 1.8k, pink letter 1.5k, toy hammer 6.5k

Traded: apple for Pikachu egg, peach for blue candy (twice)


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## Jacob4 (Mar 29, 2016)

pandapples said:


> Been awhile since I updated either thread..
> 
> Bought: green balloon 2k, blue candy 1.3k, teal letter 1.5k, cyan and pink letters together for 1.6k, togepi egg 1.5k (before egg hunt), regular egg 399 (after egg hunt)
> 
> ...



Ty! Very helpful


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## King Dorado (Mar 30, 2016)

bought a 2013 Classic egg for 1k.


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## PeeBraiin (Mar 30, 2016)

sold a shmrock for 500


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## Skyfall (Mar 30, 2016)

Recently sold one yellow feather for 3500, second one for 4000, third one for 4000.


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## pandapples (Mar 30, 2016)

Sold: togepi egg 3k + Popsicle, ancient candle 220


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## Mimi Cheems (Mar 30, 2016)

bought a cyan house for 400 tbt and a shamrock c:


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## Jacob4 (Mar 30, 2016)

Ahh thank you all ^_^


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## Jacob4 (Mar 31, 2016)

bump


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## DaCoSim (Mar 31, 2016)

Not sure if this helps but got offered 10k by 2-3 peeps for my party popper. I traded it for a dark egg though.


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## Jacob4 (Mar 31, 2016)

DaCoSim said:


> Not sure if this helps but got offered 10k by 2-3 peeps for my party popper. I traded it for a dark egg though.



thanks for the info^^


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## Jacob4 (Mar 31, 2016)

bump


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## Skyfall (Apr 1, 2016)

Bought a sakura egg for 1,250 BTB.  Bought a pikachu egg for 1,250 BTB.


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## Shinigamii (Apr 1, 2016)

bought party popper few days ago 12k + 2 chocolate cakes


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## N a t (Apr 1, 2016)

Not sure if this helps, but I traded my Pikachu egg for 2 ancient candles, a voodoo doll, 1 red candy, 1 yellow candy, and 350btb.


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## Skyfall (Apr 2, 2016)

Just bought:

Pikachu egg for 1,250  (and I see I overpaid slightly as I see two threads where the seller wants 1200)
Sakura egg for 1,250 (and I see I overpaid slightly as I see two threads where the seller wants 1200)
Candy egg for 2,500


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## King Dorado (Apr 3, 2016)

just bought a Pikachu egg and a Sakura egg for 1,000 tbt each.

I also noticed that those eggs were purchased for 1,000 tbt each by two other users today.


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## Skyfall (Apr 3, 2016)

Bought 2 candy eggs for 2,500 btb each.

- - - Post Merge - - -

A heads up that there are shamrocks being sold for 350.  I guess i bought too high, just bought a few for 450 for a day ago...


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## ZetaFunction (Apr 8, 2016)

Bump!

Bought a smamrock a few days ago for 300 TBT


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## King Dorado (Apr 9, 2016)

bought classic easter egg for 1000 tbt.
sold regular easter egg for 450 tbt.


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## Jacob4 (Apr 13, 2016)

Thanks all for the info (-: Prices will be changed soon

Prices for eggs changed. It is likely that these values are not entirely accurate since there has been a lot of variation, not to mention it is extremely likely that the true values are far higher than at current (this is due to the amount of selling currently outweighing the buying), meaning the prices will soon rise. This goes for virtually all eggs with the exception of waluigi and classic eggs which are still around the same (yoshi and togepi probably wont go up, but they have gone up a lot lately so the prices still vary). However, they're a fairly accurate guide for now. Eggs will be further updated when prices have settled.


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## strawberrywine (Apr 13, 2016)

Bought a Purple Feather for 17k


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## Jacob4 (Apr 14, 2016)

bump


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## King Dorado (Apr 14, 2016)

WhiteCkaw said:


> Bought a Purple Feather for 17k



that was a collectibles trade, or pure tbt sale??


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## Jacob4 (Apr 16, 2016)

bump (-:


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## Jacob4 (Apr 16, 2016)

bump


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## Mellyjan3 (Apr 18, 2016)

Bump!


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## Skyfall (Apr 20, 2016)

Reporting: just sold a yellow feather for 5000 BTB.


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## Chrystina (Apr 20, 2016)

posted in other thread, but: bought a blue feather for 1.5k the other day


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## King Dorado (Apr 21, 2016)

bought a regular egg for 350 tbt.


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## Stil (Apr 21, 2016)

Sold a Togepi Egg for 40 BTB


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## Jacob4 (Apr 23, 2016)

Thanks for the info! (-:


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## Jacob4 (Apr 24, 2016)

bump


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## JeffreyAC (Apr 24, 2016)

Bought:

Easter Egg for 300TBT
Spring Shamrock x2 250TBT each


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## Danielkang2 (Apr 25, 2016)

Great guide! Overall I've seen it very accurate but I've noticed a few inconsistencies like the dark blue letter and green balloon.


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## strawberrywine (Apr 26, 2016)

Bought a Dark Blue Letter 7k


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## Danielkang2 (May 17, 2016)

Bump


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## Katattacc (May 17, 2016)

ahh good I was looking for this thread


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## Stil (May 17, 2016)

Bought 5 Toy hammers at 7500 BTB a piece
Traded collectibles for 2 Hammers at the value of 8k a piece

7 Total


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## Kifa (May 17, 2016)

bump, good luck with thread ^_^


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## Skyfall (May 18, 2016)

Did I report my prior candy egg collectible purchase at 1300?

anyways, bought a sakura egg for 500 today.  As well as a pikachu for 500.


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## cornimer (May 19, 2016)

Bump


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## uwuzumakii (May 26, 2016)

I'm going to bump this thread cuz I was looking for it.


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## classically.trained (May 26, 2016)

Bought a carnation for 350 tbt and a swirl for 750.


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## Kirbystarship (May 28, 2016)

does this person update this guide anymore?


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