# [Spreadsheet] Mystery Tour Villager "RNG" (Peppys only. Spoiler: Species gets rolled first, thus odds are not equal)



## Sheba (Apr 17, 2020)

*EDIT: It's clear now! TL;DR: Game rolls species first, then villager if there's more than one in the species, making the odds uneven - less possible villagers in a species mean higher chances for those villagers appearing. Thank you to ForbiddenSecrets for helping me realize this!*
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So, as I had posted yesterday, I am desperately trying and failing to get Bunnie or Dotty as a Peppy villager for my initial Peppy pick. Given that I have already and very quickly found a Lazy and Normal I like, *I am currently only getting Peppy villagers*. However, I not only failed to find Bunnie and Dotty but basically every single bunny, despite there being so many in the Peppy pool.

And so, spreadsheets. I have *450 NMT* to use (but will stop when I get Bunnie or Dotty). I will use them in *batches of 50* and will vary daytime and date to see if it has any influence. For now, here's _tickets 1-50, done on Friday afternoon_. And look at this data, it's already interesting and has a pattern:







As you can clearly see, species with only one possible villager in the Peppy group appear A LOT! There are _nine_ villagers who are the only "Peppy"s of their species, out of 49(!) total, but they make up almost half of the island populations! This is a huge thing, obviously, and rabbits seemingly just don't happen unless the stars perfectly align because there's so many of them. At least not in the afternoon hours.

I will start my second 50-batch once my Switch has recharged and edit it in here once I've collected the data. It's now in the middle of the night here in Germany, so the second 50-batch will happen at around 3am and we'll see how that influences things. Given that I had done all tours at night until now and I'm at this since almost two weeks, I can say: It likely won't change much and I expect the same results based on my experience. But science and all that... also I am horribly frustrated. I just want Bunnie or Dotty...

EDIT: I got Dotty (AAAAAAAA!), so collecting is over for now, but it's pretty sure at this point that ForbiddenSecret has it right and the game rolls species first (all equal chance). And, if there's more than one possible villager for the set personality in that species, it rolls again. Hence, if there's only one villager possible for a species, said villager will appear far more often than if there's eight villagers in a set species and personality type. To summarize: If you want a peppy bunny, be ready to cry. If you want Audie, your chances are pretty good during the initial three houses!







Will collect more if a set personality happens again on the mystery islands. But this is pretty confirmed.


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## RenaiRider (Apr 17, 2020)

I remember your torment over trying to get Dotty or Bunny, and I'm SO sorry you're _still _going through this when you're only rolling for Peppy villagers D:<!! I'm glad you're keeping track now, as data is very interesting and telling if it's true RNG or not. So far, seems like you've had similar luck to me when it comes to recurring species when island hopping. Keep up the good work, and good luck!


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## Sheba (Apr 17, 2020)

RenaiRider said:


> I remember your torment over trying to get Dotty or Bunny, and I'm SO sorry you're _still _going through this when you're only rolling for Peppy villagers D:<!! I'm glad you're keeping track now, as data is very interesting and telling if it's true RNG or not. So far, seems like you've had similar luck to me when it comes to recurring species when island hopping. Keep up the good work, and good luck!


Thank you so much! I refuse to give up and am willing to sacrifice all those tickets, but it's honestly just soooo frustrating! Mainly because I just want to play with all the things the game has to offer, but I'm not even having fences yet, not to mention all the other things like island designer and the like... if I had more unlocked, I wouldn't mind so much, but like this, it's torture. But I feel if I just accept someone and continue on, getting Dotty or Bunnie when all personalities will be in the pool will end up being _impossible_.

Going to start the second 50-batch now. At least there will be more data if I fail...but I'd prefer less data and more Dotty or Bunnie, haha.


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## ForbiddenSecrets (Apr 17, 2020)

It kind of looks like the game randomizes species first and then the villager from that species. So maybe there is 1/22 chance of seeing Bunny and then you have to get lucky after that. There are 9 species with only one villager. That's 40% of the species. You hit them 48% of the time which isn't unreasonable for the sample size. 

Other data I've seen on the islands seems to point that way but obviously we need a much lager sample to make real conclusions.


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## Sheba (Apr 17, 2020)

ForbiddenSecrets said:


> It kind of looks like the game randomizes species first and then the villager from that species. So maybe there is 1/22 chance of seeing Bunny and then you have to get lucky after that. There are 9 species with only one villager. That's 40% of the species. You hit them 48% of the time which isn't unreasonable for the sample size.
> 
> Other data I've seen on the islands seems to point that way but obviously we need a much lager sample to make real conclusions.


That sounds smart. I am honestly shoddy with math and percentages, so I'm glad you're spelling these things out for me because I would have calculated wrong for sure. Second 50-batch is happening now, 2:44am my time. Results look a lot like the first batch so far.


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## Bk1234 (Apr 17, 2020)

I don't know if this is helpful in any way, but today here were my mystery island encounters: 
*Note: These are my encounters post-first campsite villager  *
1. Becky (Snooty)
2. Billy (Jock)
3. Gabi (Peppy)
4. Wendy (Peppy)
5. Teddy (Jock)
6. Alli (Snooty) 
7. Shari (Sisterly) 
8. Walt (Cranky)
9. Reneigh (Sisterly)- INVITED


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## jiojiop (Apr 17, 2020)

ForbiddenSecrets said:


> It kind of looks like the game randomizes species first and then the villager from that species. So maybe there is 1/22 chance of seeing Bunny and then you have to get lucky after that. There are 9 species with only one villager. That's 40% of the species. You hit them 48% of the time which isn't unreasonable for the sample size.
> 
> Other data I've seen on the islands seems to point that way but obviously we need a much lager sample to make real conclusions.



This is a great deduction. It's also a really stupid way for Nintendo to go about this.

Thanks @Sheba for getting all this data and tabulating it so well. I adore Bunnie too and this is pretty disappointing.


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## Sheba (Apr 17, 2020)

Thanks everyone for pitching in so far! I've done ten tickets now and the only new villager who wasn't in the first 50 so far is Ketchup the duck. I've seen Truffles twice again, too, which makes me wonder if all members in the species are equally likely to appear as I haven't seen the second pig yet but Truffles quite a bit. Data collecting continues...


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## Saga (Apr 17, 2020)

I'm following this closely because I have a villager moving out tomorrow and am trying decide between taking my chances with RNG or buying/trading a villager but risking the plot glitch...


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## ayeeprill (Apr 17, 2020)

That’s insane as I found Bonbon and Pippy on back to back islands a week or so ago! Really want to know how this works.


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## Sheba (Apr 17, 2020)

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA I GOT DOTTY AAAAAAAAAA Sorry guys, data collecting got cut short for now, but I will continue this if there's a second round where I will whittle things down to a single personality appearing on islands (I think there might be? Not sure. I heard there'll be three more villagers from set personalities who need to be invited later?)

Nevertheless, I collected everything until Dotty happened. I think it's safe to say that ForbiddenSecret got it right in that the game rolls for species and those are all equally likely. So if you're in the stage of the game where only set personalities appear on the island, you are more likely to get your dreamie if they're the only one of their species in that personality group. If they're not, you need extra luck the more villagers are in that species and personality since there's a second roll for who will appear out of the rolled species then.


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## Miss Misty (Apr 17, 2020)

The RNG rolling for species first rather than individual villager would explain a lot. I can see why Nintendo would do it that way. Some species (cats) have more animals than others (octopi) so they might have done it that way to make less common species have an equal chance of appearing. It would explain why people like me can go on a lot of island trips and not see certain species at all, despite seeing every member of other species. It would also explain why the octopi appear to be slightly more common here.

I'm glad you were able to get your bun!


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## kiyyie (Apr 17, 2020)

Just wondering if you can help because this is slightly hard for me to absorb, if I were looking for Judy (only snooty cub) with NMT, is it estimated to be a low chance?


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## sicklewillow (Apr 17, 2020)

Does this mean cat villagers have a low chance as well?


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## ctar17 (Apr 17, 2020)

Interesting data.  I had a suspicion that the game randomly selects a species first instead of a villager right off the bat as I performed a Chi Square test on octopus vs. not octopus with about 350 sample size and found that it's not pure RNG based on 1/391 chance for each villager.  The octopuses were appearing way more than 3/391.  The test confirmed that the probability for them appearing 12 times in 344 was very very very low like less than .00001%, therefore it was out of my set confidence interval of 1% so I could conclude that it wasn't strict RNG where every single villager has a specific chance.

	Post automatically merged: Apr 17, 2020



ForbiddenSecrets said:


> It kind of looks like the game randomizes species first and then the villager from that species. So maybe there is 1/22 chance of seeing Bunny and then you have to get lucky after that. There are 9 species with only one villager. That's 40% of the species. You hit them 48% of the time which isn't unreasonable for the sample size.
> 
> Other data I've seen on the islands seems to point that way but obviously we need a much lager sample to make real conclusions.




I went back to my data and re-performed the Chi Square test but instead of doing specific villagers, did specific species for the observed vs. expected results.

Here is what I found:
The Chi Square value was less than the p value for the confidence interval (of 5%), this means that the observed and expected results are NOT statistically significant.  I conclude this to mean, like the OP and ForbiddenSecrets said, the game randomly rolls for species first and then randomly rolls a specific villager in that chosen species.  Thank you OP and ForbiddenSecrets for providing this info!


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## AshdewCrossing (Apr 17, 2020)

Sheba said:


> AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA I GOT DOTTY AAAAAAAAAA Sorry guys, data collecting got cut short for now, but I will continue this if there's a second round where I will whittle things down to a single personality appearing on islands (I think there might be? Not sure. I heard there'll be three more villagers from set personalities who need to be invited later?)
> 
> Nevertheless, I collected everything until Dotty happened. I think it's safe to say that ForbiddenSecret got it right in that the game rolls for species and those are all equally likely. So if you're in the stage of the game where only set personalities appear on the island, you are more likely to get your dreamie if they're the only one of their species in that personality group. If they're not, you need extra luck the more villagers are in that species and personality since there's a second roll for who will appear out of the rolled species then.
> 
> ...


Congratulations!! Thank you for making this thread, I was following it because the data was really interesting. I wonder if after your initial 3 plots personality will be a separate roll as well.


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## ctar17 (Apr 18, 2020)

kiyyie said:


> Just wondering if you can help because this is slightly hard for me to absorb, if I were looking for Judy (only snooty cub) with NMT, is it estimated to be a low chance?



Using the species first RNG that is theorized from OP and my data both:

The estimated chance to specifically find Judy is equal to the chance that cubs are selected (1/35) multiplied by the chance that Judy is selected from the cubs (1/16).  This equals 1/560 or 0.18%


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## sicklewillow (Apr 18, 2020)

So if I'm looking for Kid Cat or Raymond, 1/35 times 1/23=0.00124


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## ctar17 (Apr 18, 2020)

sicklewillow said:


> So if I'm looking for Kid Cat or Raymond, 1/35 times 1/23=0.00124



well technically if you're looking for Kid Cat OR Raymond, it's double that (chance to get either one) so: 0.00248 or 0.248%


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## Aliya (Apr 18, 2020)

Thank you for sharing this and I'm glad you finally found Dotty! I assumed this also while I was island hopping since I saw so many repeats in smaller species like the octopi and barely any of the cats or dogs etc., but I just tracked names and not personalities so I would need to clean it up prior to posting.

That's disappointing if you're looking for that one elusive villager who happens to be one of many of that species (especially once you get passed the initial 5 villagers when all villagers personalities can appear)! I hope more people continue to share their data like this so we can analyze more.

Also @ctar17 thank you for running a Chi Square test! My brain is happy


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## ctar17 (Apr 18, 2020)

Aliya said:


> Thank you for sharing this and I'm glad you finally found Dotty! I assumed this also while I was island hopping since I saw so many repeats in smaller species like the octopi and barely any of the cats or dogs etc., but I just tracked names and not personalities so I would need to clean it up prior to posting.
> 
> That's disappointing if you're looking for that one elusive villager who happens to be one of many of that species (especially once you get passed the initial 5 villagers where all villagers personalities can appear)! I hope more people continue to share their data like this so we can analyze more.
> 
> Also @ctar17 thank you for running a Chi Square test! My brain is happy



I knew my econometrics class I suffered through this semester because I had to take it for my economics major would come in real handy!


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## Aliya (Apr 18, 2020)

ctar17 said:


> I knew my econometrics class I suffered through this semester because I had to take it for my economics major would come in real handy!



For sure! I'm studying Epidemiology so I love hard numbers like this. I'd love to compile more data as more people share to really dig into this too.

It'd be interesting to see what the chance of encountering each villager is once you get passed the initial 5 villagers (accounting for those 5 prior to calculating, but that'll be a project)!


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## ctar17 (Apr 18, 2020)

Aliya said:


> For sure! I'm studying Epidemiology so I love hard numbers like this. I'd love to compile more data as more people share to really dig into this too.
> 
> It'd be interesting to see what the chance of encountering each villager is once you get passed the initial 5 villagers (accounting for those 5 prior to calculating, but that'll be a project)!



My next plan is to test if there's an intermediary personality roll before finally rolling a specific villager.  Will need a lot more data for this, but I have a plan of how to test it.  I can't use the octopus method for this though.  I'd do it on a species with all the personalities and a lot of villagers!


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## Sheba (Apr 18, 2020)

Sorry for suddenly turning silent, guys! And thanks so much for all the congratulations! I rushed to put down the three houses before the new day began here in Germany (and wasn't fast enough so for the first time I TTed back an hour because dangit, I wasted two weeks on this already, I let myself have this!), so Drago has now moved in and I was also allowed to finally put down the spot for the Able Sisters. Suddenly I have a whole town in the making!

When it comes to the actual data collecting for when all personalities are on the board during the Mystery Island Tours, I wouldn't even know how to begin figuring that out since I think it's pretty important when the roll for personality is made. If personality get rolled first, then a species who doesn't have villagers in every personality will show up less often. If species gets rolled first, then you're actually better off with wanting a dreamie from a species which doesn't have villagers in every personality (I think).

As I'm not in that stage of the game yet, I also still have no idea if the personalities you already have on the island affect the chance of each personality showing up on a Mystery Tour and stuff like that. And I'm (obviously) really, really bad at maths. Doing this with one set personality was easy, but you've seen I needed help to interpret the data correctly even now, so...more complex matters are definitely better left with people who are smarter than me. Still, I'm very glad I managed to get some good data for you all. In the end, it wasn't all 450 promised NMT, but I'm not sad about that at all. Took long enough already to get Dotty! 

But you guys can be sure I'll be back here, using all those tickets, when it's time to get Annalisa, as she's not the Normal villager I had settled on during the initial plots, but she's one of my dreamies, so on all the tours I'll go! Might as well make spreadsheets again, too! For now, it seems I'll have a relaxed weekend while I wait for my three new guys and gals to slowly move in! Yay!

Thanks for the help, support and smart explanations here, guys!


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## ctar17 (Apr 18, 2020)

Sheba said:


> Sorry for suddenly turning silent, guys! And thanks so much for all the congratulations! I rushed to put down the three houses before the new day began here in Germany (and wasn't fast enough so for the first time I TTed back an hour because dangit, I wasted two weeks on this already, I let myself have this!), so Drago has now moved in and I was also allowed to finally put down the spot for the Able Sisters. Suddenly I have a whole town in the making!
> 
> When it comes to the actual data collecting for when all personalities are on the board during the Mystery Island Tours, I wouldn't even know how to begin figuring that out since I think it's pretty important when the roll for personality is made. If personality get rolled first, then a species who doesn't have villagers in every personality will show up less often. If species gets rolled first, then you're actually better off with wanting a dreamie from a species which doesn't have villagers in every personality (I think).
> 
> ...



Hi I'd be interested in data once you can collect more!
I'll just need:
Island # , Villager name, Species, personality

Doing it with 1 personality was actually very useful as it established a control for us to find this species first pattern.  My data when all 8 personalities available point to the same thing, species first

Also I made another thread about this, and I'll say it here again: my stats test from data collected when you can hunt for all 8 personalities currently conclude that the game rolls species first.  I'm unsure if it goes straight to a specific villager from there, or if it rolls personality next, but it decides species before anything else

anyone can DM me data, very interested!


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## Sheba (Apr 18, 2020)

ctar17 said:


> Hi I'd be interested in data once you can collect more!
> I'll just need:
> Island # , Villager name, Species, personality
> 
> ...


Awesome, I'll definitely keep that in mind once the island hopping game begins for me again! And it's good to know that it's species first (because honestly, that seems more fair than personality first). I'll see what the game wants from me next, I haven't spoilered myself that much, but I sit on a lot of NMT and will sooner or later need to use them anyway.


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## ctar17 (Apr 18, 2020)

Sheba said:


> Awesome, I'll definitely keep that in mind once the island hopping game begins for me again! And it's good to know that it's species first (because honestly, that seems more fair than personality first). I'll see what the game wants from me next, I haven't spoilered myself that much, but I sit on a lot of NMT and will sooner or later need to use them anyway.



Yeah, I suggest reading my thread about species first, as there's also some answers to questions that people asked.  Not to self promote, but it could be very useful if you're hunting for someone specific... like... you know who XD


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## Sheba (Apr 18, 2020)

ctar17 said:


> Yeah, I suggest reading my thread about species first, as there's also some answers to questions that people asked.  Not to self promote, but it could be very useful if you're hunting for someone specific... like... you know who XD


Man I will never get why people are into the "you know whos" xD In New Leaf it was Marshal, who is one of my very least favourite villagers ever. Now we have a new You-Know-Who and while I like him and definitely wouldn't kick him out if I'd get him, I'd also be cool with Lionel over him.
Only dreamies I really still need now with no alternative are Bunnie and Annalisa and it seems Bunnie might become the biggest pain in the bum, thanks to the amount of rabbits in the pool. Would also like Ruby, but three peppy are not really a good thing. For all others, I have alternatives or just flat out don't want anyone from that personality. Also gonna check your thread out now, yay!


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## Tiny Knight (May 19, 2020)

Sheba said:


> *EDIT: It's clear now! TL;DR: Game rolls species first, then villager if there's more than one in the species, making the odds uneven - less possible villagers in a species mean higher chances for those villagers appearing. Thank you to ForbiddenSecrets for helping me realize this!*
> ---
> 
> So, as I had posted yesterday, I am desperately trying and failing to get Bunnie or Dotty as a Peppy villager for my initial Peppy pick. Given that I have already and very quickly found a Lazy and Normal I like, *I am currently only getting Peppy villagers*. However, I not only failed to find Bunnie and Dotty but basically every single bunny, despite there being so many in the Peppy pool.
> ...



what about characters like Cherry, Ankha, and Lucky? Do they also apply to the list?


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## Tracie.honeybay (May 15, 2021)

What about maple how hard is it to find her?


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