# A day spent island hopping and I'm crushed



## RenaiRider (Apr 15, 2020)

After 165 NMTs spent, and a huge amount of Nook Miles that I've been saving up legitimately for weeks to search for five dreamies on my list, I've given up and am leaving the plot up to fate.

The RNG is completely borked, as I saw repeat villagers _at least_ 54 times. How does it make sense to keep seeing the same villagers - even the same villager 3+ times in one day?! _Is Wilbur blind as well as unable to fly? _
The repeat villagers don't even recognize you when you speak to them again. *1/3* of my trips were pointless and I only saw ONE cat/wolf/rabbit when those species lists are huge (yet I saw two of each cow!).

Trying to play the game legit can really suck. Along with the plot/void bugs and feeling pressured to bulk island hop in one day, the most important parts of the game are very frustrating rn.

I refuse to believe this is up to legit RNG, the villagers _have_ to be in different pools of rarity, either by default or dependent on day or some other arbitrary variable. Either way, the mechanic of seeing the same villager in one day is pointless. It really wrecks the immersion and devalues NMTs which take so LONG to collect in bulk.

Edit: List of repeat Villagers 



Spoiler




VillagerSpeciesNumber EncountersOlafAnteater2TeddyBear2JacobBird2T-boneBull2KenChicken2BeckyChicken3NormaCow2NaomiCow3PattyCow2TipperCow2JudyCub2BluebearCub2BaroldCub3BamDeer2GloriaDuck2MollyDuck2CydElephant2CroqueFrog3GruffGoat2ChevreGoat3BoydGorilla2HamletHamster2BerthaHippo2ClydeHorse2AstridKangaroo2MathildaKangaroo3RooneyKangaroo2LymanKoala3BudLion2LionelLion3TammiMonkey2OctavianOctopus3ZuckerOctopus2SprocketOstrich2BoomerPenguin2CobbPig2HornsbyRhino2CurlosSheep2NibblesSquirrel2TybaltTiger2LeonardoTiger2


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## Aleigh (Apr 15, 2020)

I'm sorry. I can see how that would suck. Which villagers are you looking for?


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## thelonewanderer (Apr 15, 2020)

RenaiRider said:


> After 165 NMTs spent, and a huge amount of Nook Miles that I've been saving up legitimately for weeks to search for five dreamies on my list, I've given up and am leaving the plot up to fate.
> 
> The RNG is completely borked, as I saw repeat villagers _at least_ 54 times. How does it make sense to keep seeing the same villagers - even the same villager 3+ times in one day?! _Is Wilbur blind as well as unable to fly? _
> The repeat villagers don't even recognize you when you speak to them again. *1/3* of my trips were pointless and I only saw ONE cat/wolf/rabbit when those species lists are huge (yet I saw two of each cow!).
> ...



Without a doubt, it doesn't seem like RNG to me but rather a pattern.  I saw Bubble twice in a row for example.  I have yet to see a cat though I only been to 32 islands.


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## Calysis (Apr 15, 2020)

I'm in the same boat you are. At least 200 mystery islands that I've done and over 100 mystery island trips that my bf has done on a hunt for Raymond and we have seen _way_ too many duplicate villagers. A couple even back-to-back! I do believe that there is some pattern that determines who you see (_not_ just RNG). I wish I knew what it was because it's a huge waste of time.


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## Maiana (Apr 15, 2020)

thelonewanderer said:


> Without a doubt, it doesn't seem like RNG to me but rather a pattern.


I'm sure it's a pattern as well. I've been keeping track of who I've been moving out (and in) sometimes the villagers shift depending on who I move out. Sometimes it's the same villagers that I saw on my last hunts. The problem is, I have no idea what kind of pattern it is lol


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## thelonewanderer (Apr 15, 2020)

Maiana said:


> I'm sure it's a pattern as well. I've been keeping track of who I've been moving out (and in) sometimes the villagers shift depending on who I move out. Sometimes it's the same villagers that I saw on my last hunts. The problem is, I have no idea what kind of pattern it is lol



I don't think anyone know with how many patch Nintendo has done so far, we are on our 5th patch right?  Could Nintendo be saying you have to many NMT so we are going to nerf your chances to combat people who buy from Ebay?  That my theory anyway.  

Then again I'm curious to who OP encounter and who is their dreamy?


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## Artinus (Apr 15, 2020)

Man that really sucks... I did some island hopping when I had space and I agree that it can't be RNG, I was seeing cows, birds and hippos, some of which was the same in a row... I am sorry to hear you didn't get a dreamie, even after so many NMT D:


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## Chachamaru (Apr 15, 2020)

I know everyone's tight on money, myself included, trust me, I was unemployed even before the pandemic, but amiibos were very worth investing in for this game to me considering they never leave unless you tell them too. 

It has saved me so much time trying to acquire "dreamies" it's not even funny. I do NOT have the patience for that island bs. I did reset 3 days for dom as a starter, and even that had me grinding my teeth. I got raymond by chance, and he wasn't even someone I wanted. then today, in my campsite, stitches. Now he moved in in place of chester. It really is dumb luck.

I understand if it's a new villager the amiibo cards aren't out yet, so raymond or audie or someone is much harder to achieve, but I do think the amiibos will be released sooner or later. Or you can save all those nook miles you wasted and just trade for whoever you're looking for eventually.


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## Maiana (Apr 15, 2020)

thelonewanderer said:


> I don't think anyone know with how many patch Nintendo has done so far, we are on our 5th patch right?  Could Nintendo be saying you have to many NMT so we are going to nerf your chances to combat people who buy from Ebay?  That my theory anyway.
> 
> Then again I'm curious to who OP encounter and who is their dreamy?


For me, the villagers I'm trying to find are Francine, Chrissy, and Tasha. I have spent over 266+ Nook Tickets and they have yet to show up. I'm currently island hopping right this moment, and I have almost seen every Snooty villager besides Francine and Tasha. It's interesting..


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## moon_child (Apr 15, 2020)

It’s luck. And as with all things in life, most often than not, you aren’t given what you’re wanting the most when you want it the most. You’re most likely to find what you’re not searching for. The key to enjoying the island tours is having an open mind. The more specific villagers you’re looking for, the least likely you’ll find them. And you’ll really waste a lot of tickets if you’re looking for a specific one.


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## Fridaynightcatlady (Apr 15, 2020)

Hey, I actually got amiibos for my dreamies and am planning to give away my NMT. They're not much, but you can have some of them  I'm trying to give as many away to different people so they get their dreamies!


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## thelonewanderer (Apr 15, 2020)

Maiana said:


> For me, the villagers I'm trying to find are Francine, Chrissy, and Tasha. I have spent over 266+ Nook Tickets and they have yet to show up. I'm currently island hopping right this moment, and I have almost seen every Snooty villager besides Francine and Tasha. It's interesting..



Oh I don't know who they are.  They must be really special to you cause some of my favorite dreamy are in the Snooty category.

I find island hopping so boring because of how long the stupid dialogue from the dodos are, don't you agree?  I'm exhausted after doing 6 island in a row.


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## spaceapple (Apr 15, 2020)

That suuuucks! After reading so many things like this on here I decided to buy amiibo for my dreamies and save up my nmt to trade for Audie and Sherb. They’re expensive, but with luck like this I’d rather be guaranteed to spend my bells on what I want. : /


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## Nami (Apr 15, 2020)

Wow, I am so sorry to hear that you went through so much effort to see such BS in this... weird patterning. I have many frustrations going on when it comes to villagers as well...


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## solace (Apr 15, 2020)

RenaiRider said:


> After 165 NMTs spent, and a huge amount of Nook Miles that I've been saving up legitimately for weeks to search for five dreamies on my list, I've given up and am leaving the plot up to fate.
> 
> The RNG is completely borked, as I saw repeat villagers _at least_ 54 times. How does it make sense to keep seeing the same villagers - even the same villager 3+ times in one day?! _Is Wilbur blind as well as unable to fly? _
> The repeat villagers don't even recognize you when you speak to them again. *1/3* of my trips were pointless and I only saw ONE cat/wolf/rabbit when those species lists are huge (yet I saw two of each cow!).
> ...



That sounds super frustrating! Words can't even describe how awful that must feel. And you and your bf were grinding legitimately.

Which villager are you looking for? I cycle but not as often as some people do. I have amiibos as well. So when the patch is fixed I can help you out. I feel so bad for you.


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## Sanaki (Apr 15, 2020)

It's definitely a pattern. I see Bubbles, Octavian, Coach, Angus, Anabelle, and Samson repeatedly and this is within a sum of 200 tickets as a total pool. I used 50 last night and came across each of them at least 2-3 times each.


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## Lotusblossom (Apr 15, 2020)

What does RNG mean?
Did u get to see all the islands at least???


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## solace (Apr 15, 2020)

Random Number Generator. I didn't know what it meant either until I started playing pc games


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## Bk1234 (Apr 15, 2020)

moon_child said:


> It’s luck. And as with all things in life, most often than not, you aren’t given what you’re wanting the most when you want it the most. You’re most likely to find what you’re not searching for. The key to enjoying the island tours is having an open mind. The more specific villagers you’re looking for, the least likely you’ll find them. And you’ll really waste a lot of tickets if you’re looking for a specific one.


I love this response! ❤ My advice (this is what I did): make a list of all the villagers of each personality type that you would be fine with, this will give you many options so it won't be such a painful search. I did this and I got Nana and Tutu, who aren't my dreamies but I still thought they were cute.


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## solace (Apr 15, 2020)

thelonewanderer said:


> Oh I don't know who they are.  They must be really special to you cause some of my favorite dreamy are in the Snooty category.
> 
> I find island hopping so boring because of how long the stupid dialogue from the dodos are, don't you agree?  I'm exhausted after doing 6 island in a row.


THAT! And when you earn a NMT, for me personally, I want to make use of that island. I pick up weeds, hit rocks, chop trees, fish, shake trees... the works. It can take up 20-30 mins! It's a true grind if you want to squeeze every last bit out of it.


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## Jas (Apr 15, 2020)

solace said:


> THAT! And when you earn a NMT, for me personally, I want to make use of that island. I pick up weeds, hit rocks, chop trees, fish, shake trees... the works. It can take up 20-30 mins! It's a true grind if you want to squeeze every last bit out of it.


i'm the same way, i spend around 30 minutes on every island no matter who the villager is! i'm sorry to hear that you didn't find who you wanted


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## thelonewanderer (Apr 15, 2020)

Bk1234 said:


> I love this response! ❤ My advice (this is what I did): make a list of all the villagers of each personality type that you would be fine with, this will give you many options so it won't be such a painful search. I did this and I got Nana and Tutu, who aren't my dreamies but I still thought they were cute.



I have a decent size dreamy list but it took me 32 island to find my first dreamy.  Why do you see the same villagers twice instead of a cat villagers?  I mean the odd of seeing villagers twice is far less than 1%.  So yeah it not RNG, its some sort of manufactured pattern.


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## RenaiRider (Apr 15, 2020)

Aleigh said:


> I'm sorry. I can see how that would suck. Which villagers are you looking for?


I was trying to look for Raymond (surprise there lol), Lily, Bonbon or Dotty, and Murphy!



Calysis said:


> I'm in the same boat you are. At least 200 mystery islands that I've done and over 100 mystery island trips that my bf has done on a hunt for Raymond and we have seen _way_ too many duplicate villagers. A couple even back-to-back! I do believe that there is some pattern that determines who you see (_not_ just RNG). I wish I knew what it was because it's a huge waste of time.


I KNOW! I also got duplicate villagers right after another, I thought Wilbur was _gaslighting _me, and that I never went on another trip. I've seen too many darn Kangaroos and Hippos to be a coincidence. I really wish dataminers would be able to figure stuff out like that more accurately and save us time.



Artinus said:


> Man that really sucks... I did some island hopping when I had space and I agree that it can't be RNG, I was seeing cows, birds and hippos, some of which was the same in a row... I am sorry to hear you didn't get a dreamie, even after so many NMT D:



For me, not ONCE did I encounter any alligators (not that I was looking for any), and as I mentioned in my post, only one cat and bunny. I was stuck seeing ugly villagers over and over, my own personal hell.



FootballFish said:


> I know everyone's tight on money, myself included, trust me, I was unemployed even before the pandemic, but amiibos were very worth investing in for this game to me considering they never leave unless you tell them too.
> 
> 
> I've added some extra Data in my main post with a table of all the duplicate encounters, if anybody is interested.
> ...


Luckily I have moved in a chunk of villagers through amiibos, but they've hiked in price now, and villagers like Raymond like you said, are impossible at the moment to find stress-free. I hope Nintendo does something soon, although I think they're enjoying our pain a bit too much atm.



SirBadger said:


> Hey, I actually got amiibos for my dreamies and am planning to give away my NMT. They're not much, but you can have some of them  I'm trying to give as many away to different people so they get their dreamies!


Awwww, that's extremely kind; right now im terrified to even visit other people's islands with all the bugs around, but I really appreciate your offer =D!


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## Bucky42 (Apr 15, 2020)

I have been island hopping too without much luck. I do enjoy all the resources though. I have a list of 20 or so that I would like.. Last week I found one I wanted, Whitney. I don't tt or charge for stuff so all my tickets I earn by playing. It takes time. I hope you find the ones you want soon.


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## thelonewanderer (Apr 15, 2020)

solace said:


> THAT! And when you earn a NMT, for me personally, I want to make use of that island. I pick up weeds, hit rocks, chop trees, fish, shake trees... the works. It can take up 20-30 mins! It's a true grind if you want to squeeze every last bit out of it.



I stop doing that after my 14th island.  I felt really guilty not making use of the resources but I already have so many iron nuggets and it feel like grinding and grinding is the opposite of fun.  So now I get onto the island check who the villager is and run out. Sometime I don't even bother looking for the DIY Bottle or the furniture in the tree.  Its a hard minset to change for someone who always wanting to not miss out on anything. 

But now that I'm out of that mindset, it a breath of fresh air.  That still doesn't make island hopping a pain though especially if you get money rock, hybrid flowers, bamboo and etc...

Believe it or not, I actually hope I don't get any special island when I island hop because I'm tire of grinding.  Digging flowers but when shovel break is very frustrating.  I even had to buy tools via NM twice.

Then there are times when I get really good island like in March when we got Emperor Butterfly and there are times when I get tons of red snapper, that black stripe fish that are sold for thousands and I have to literally get rid of all 9 of my tools (same for hybrid flowers) and it just frustrating.  Don't know when to bring a full set of tools or when to not.

Then mystery island don't have bridges or inclines either so yeah if you try to mine every resources, you will wear yourself out.


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## Dae (Apr 15, 2020)

I don't know if I'm allowed to talk about this, but I solved the issue of wanting specific villagers and not wanting to pay the crazy price of amiibos by buying blank NTAG215 cards. 
You gotta do what you gotta do during a global pandemic!


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## Chachamaru (Apr 15, 2020)

RenaiRider said:


> Luckily I have moved in a chunk of villagers through amiibos, but they've hiked in price now, and villagers like Raymond like you said, are impossible at the moment to find stress-free. I hope Nintendo does something soon, although I think they're enjoying our pain a bit too much atm.


They'd be booboo the fool not too, they'd make bank on raymond/audie alone.


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## solace (Apr 15, 2020)

thelonewanderer said:


> I stop doing that after my 14th island.  I felt really guilty not making use of the resources but I already have so many iron nuggets and it feel like grinding and grinding is the opposite of fun.  So now I get onto the island check who the villager is and run out. Sometime I don't even bother looking for the DIY Bottle or the furniture in the tree.  Its a hard minset to change for someone who always wanting to not miss out on anything.
> 
> But now that I'm out of that mindset, it a breath of fresh air.  That still doesn't make island hopping a pain though especially if you get money rock, hybrid flowers, bamboo and etc...
> 
> ...


That sort of punishment system on the island tours should not exist if your tools break or having to carry them at all. They should really take a page out of NL's Island tours where you could borrow the equipment and be able to store what you earned. Hybrid flowers take up a lot of slots! I have no idea why they decided not to include that feature. Earning NMT is a feat in itself.


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## TrippyKitten (Apr 15, 2020)

That's sucks to see that happen. Guess I'm a bit on the luckier side since I did find Bob and Katt on islands, and the funny thing is, before I got the game I told myself as tempting as it is, I'm not making an all cat island. xD Yet I have Lolly, Bob and Katt, though Katt is moving today since I moved in Friga from the campsite as a random visitor, needed a Snooty.


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## Bk1234 (Apr 15, 2020)

solace said:


> THAT! And when you earn a NMT, for me personally, I want to make use of that island. I pick up weeds, hit rocks, chop trees, fish, shake trees... the works. It can take up 20-30 mins! It's a true grind if you want to squeeze every last bit out of it.


Exactly. Even if you don't like the villager take advantage of the resources to at least get your 2000 Nook Miles worth.


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## Mairen (Apr 15, 2020)

Sending love and hugs to you. I'm really sorry after all that work that you didn't find who you were looking for. It can be super disappointing I'm sure. =( I really hope in the future that you can find your friends!


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## sicklewillow (Apr 15, 2020)

I know how you feel OP. The frustration is too real. Though in case, you already spent 165 NMTs. I only did 12 islands before I just settle with Apollo. It can be really depressing.


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## Murin (Apr 15, 2020)

I feel this so much. I went on 300+ trips (didn't keep count in the beginning) trying to find Raymond. Benedict, Naomi and Marina haunted me.


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## Mairen (Apr 15, 2020)

If it's not true RNG however, I'd be very curious to research what the odds actually are!


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## brockbrock (Apr 15, 2020)

I have the same experience as OP after spending over 500 tickets before finally finding Raymond.

Some villagers, like Bubbles and Claudia, I saw every 10-20 or so tickets. I saw Bubbles three times in a row once, and twice within the next 10 tickets.

It was *very* common to see a repeat villager within 10 tickets.


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## marshallows (Apr 15, 2020)

you're not alone! i spent 300+ nmt trying to island hop for raymond (lol) and not once did I get him. was only able to get him in the end from a friend's island who doesn't care about him. rng is definitely very kind to some people while the rest (us) suffers from a less gracious fate with these things. 

definitely also with you on seeing a repeat of villagers. i compiled a spreadsheet of all the villagers i encountered during my trips and some villagers i saw more than i'd like to.


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## brockbrock (Apr 15, 2020)

marshallows said:


> you're not alone! i spent 300+ nmt trying to island hop for raymond (lol) and not once did I get him. was only able to get him in the end from a friend's island who doesn't care about him. rng is definitely very kind to some people while the rest (us) suffers from a less gracious fate with these things.
> 
> definitely also with you on seeing a repeat of villagers. i compiled a spreadsheet of all the villagers i encountered during my trips and some villagers i saw more than i'd like to.



To be fair though, we have to consider the Bernoulli Process. After spending 400 tickets you will only have a slightly less than 65% chance of finding a particular villager.

So unfortunately a large minority of us are going to have a terrible time tracking down a particular villager.


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## 0orchid (Apr 15, 2020)

I have an amiibo for Dotty but I don't TT so it would probably take forever to get her in/out otherwise I'd offer her to you (free)! Island hopping can definitely be annoying. I don't really have specific dreamies just a long list of villagers I like so when I island hop I limit myself to about 10 islands and wait to see who I find cute. I think I'd get too impatient if I did it with the aim of finding specific villagers tbh!


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## fallenchaoskitten (Apr 15, 2020)

Some people recently got into the code to find out the actual rarity of the island types to spawn (ya know bamboo, money rock, tarantula island, those kinds types)
I wonder if they uncovered anything about villager spawn rates?


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## thelonewanderer (Apr 15, 2020)

solace said:


> That sort of punishment system on the island tours should not exist if your tools break or having to carry them at all. They should really take a page out of NL's Island tours where you could borrow the equipment and be able to store what you earned. Hybrid flowers take up a lot of slots! I have no idea why they decided not to include that feature. Earning NMT is a feat in itself.



New Leaf Island were made with love while New Horizon are randomly generated.


Mairen said:


> If it's not true RNG however, I'd be very curious to research what the odds actually are!



No one know but if they did and share it, Nintendo would just update it in their numerous patches again.

Like I don't even know what the newest patch was about.  I have yet to see a Kangeroo villager in my entire history with Animal Crossing dating back to the release of Wild World.


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## 0orchid (Apr 15, 2020)

thelonewanderer said:


> New Leaf Island were made with love while New Horizon are randomly generated.
> 
> 
> No one know but if they did and share it, Nintendo would just update it in their numerous patches again.
> ...


I saw 2 kangaroos while island hopping today and I only visited 10 islands  The villagers on islands seem 100% random to me.


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## cheezu (Apr 15, 2020)

I saw one villager twice in a row but that's after I saved the game, quit and re-booted it again.
I was wondering if it could have had anything to do with that.

Overall, I have been quite happy with my Nook Miles tickets hunts but I haven't spent ALL that many to give enough input.
My best villager by far was Sherb whom I found on a hybrid hyacinth island.
I also got Wolfgang and Octavian who are semi-popular.

The rest that I invited from the tours are Norma the normal cow, Apple the peppy hamster, and Boyd the cranky gorilla - these might not be too great but I found them all unique and cute enough to invite.

During most of my tours, I try not to focus on dreamies so much but rather a villager that I wouldn't mind having on my island for some time (even for a short while).

I did come across some that I didn't care for at all as well but I think I spent around 15 tickets in total so still can't complain too much.


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## IndoX (Apr 15, 2020)

brockbrock said:


> To be fair though, we have to consider the Bernoulli Process. After spending 400 tickets you will only have a slightly less than 65% chance of finding a particular villager.


This. Unfortunately targeting a specific villager out of a pool of almost 400 is going to be very hard for most people.

To spell it out:

To find Raymond within 10 islands is a 2% chance.
Within 165 islands 34% chance.
Within 500 islands 72% chance.
Within 1000 islands 92% chance.

The odds are against you up until ~300 islands where you finally eek over a 50% chance of encountering Raymond. And keep in mind this is encountering a specific villager that you encounter ONCE throughout that hunt. You will always find duplicates when looking for a specific villager when you do islands long enough.

It's completely random - this is how it is when all the villagers have the same probability of being in an island.


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## ctar17 (Apr 15, 2020)

Gonna post this in this thread as well:

Does missing just 1 personality cause that personality to be a lot less likely to appear on the islands?

I only have 2 personal cases myself:
When I was missing a snooty, it took me 15 tickets to find a single snooty.
When my peppy moved out and I was looking for another one, I only saw 1 peppy in 30+ tickets, chose not to invite, and ended up adopting a Peppy for free from someone.


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## brockbrock (Apr 15, 2020)

ctar17 said:


> Gonna post this in this thread as well:
> 
> Does missing just 1 personality cause that personality to be a lot less likely to appear on the islands?
> 
> ...



Unfortunately you just had back luck!

When I was missing and looking for a jock I found one within 3 tickets.


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## IndoX (Apr 15, 2020)

ctar17 said:


> Gonna post this in this thread as well:
> 
> Does missing just 1 personality cause that personality to be a lot less likely to appear on the islands?
> 
> ...


You had bad luck. You have an high chance of encountering whatever personality you're targeting within 10 tickets.


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## ctar17 (Apr 15, 2020)

Wow I've just been unlucky twice in a row lol

This gives me hope for next time!  I just want all 8 personalities on my island for variety


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## solace (Apr 15, 2020)

cheezu said:


> My best villager by far was Sherb whom I found on a hybrid hyacinth island.



I also found Sherb on a blue pansy hybrid island.


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## Rowlet28 (Apr 15, 2020)

Spent 250+ NMT and still no Raymond. I got a lot of really good villagers like Ankha and Rosie but decided not to get any and ended up getting a random which I didn't like. Looking to get more but I'm all used up on miles and tickets...


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## IndoX (Apr 15, 2020)

It's a very rough estimate - I don't know if the personalities are evenly divided across the entire pool of villagers available. I would guess not. But imo anything more than 20 tickets is very unlucky. Of course this is just assuming that the personality matters - not the villager.


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## brockbrock (Apr 15, 2020)

mewto28 said:


> Spent 250+ NMT and still no Raymond.



That's a roughly 48% chance at 250 tickets. Unfortunately the odds so far haven't been in your favor.  I'm sorry, I understand how demoralizing it can feel!


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## Rowlet28 (Apr 15, 2020)

brockbrock said:


> That's a roughly 48% chance at 250 tickets. Unfortunately the odds so far haven't been in your favor.  I'm sorry, I understand how demoralizing it can feel!


Its sad because I did want Rosie in my island but all this for Raymond and I got Norma and Zucker for more than 5 times already.


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## ctar17 (Apr 15, 2020)

I think as far as the repeat villager pattern:

You do have to keep in mind that the more islands you go to, the more different villagers you see, and therefore there is a higher chance that you see one you've already seen on your next island due to the pool of villagers you haven't seen becoming smaller with each new one you see.

It's analogous to the Birthday Paradox in that the odds of 2 people in a room having the same birthday are about 50% when there's just 23 people in the room.  As you add each person going up from 1 person in the room, the pool of birthdays that no one has yet gets smaller and smaller each time, and it reaches 50% quickly, at 23 people.  There are 366 possible birthdays.
here's an article on the Birthday Paradox: https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-birthday-paradox/
I used the site and put in the number of villagers (391) instead and got that there is a 50% of a repeat at 24 islands if it's pure RNG.


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## Meesha (Apr 15, 2020)

Ugh, yeah I hear you. I've spent quite a bit myself. I was super lucky when I first started, as I found Audie! But I spent forever looking for Roscoe and all I found were eagles, other birds and kangaroos ugh


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## Antonio (Apr 15, 2020)

So, what if the RNG differs between each day?


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## Dae (Apr 15, 2020)

ctar17 said:


> I think as far as the repeat villager pattern:
> 
> You do have to keep in mind that the more islands you go to, the more different villagers you see, and therefore there is a higher chance that you see one you've already seen on your next island due to the pool of villagers you haven't seen becoming smaller with each new one you see.
> 
> ...


It also has a lot to do with the fact that, in computing, RNG isn't TRUE randomization, computers for the most part, cannot generate TRUELY random numbers, just unpredictable, yet still ultimately predetermined ones. Hard to explain in layman's terms (and off the top of my head loool) But it's a similar story to why shuffling your music playlist can feel same-y and repetitive. interesting stuff people should look into.


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## ctar17 (Apr 15, 2020)

Dae said:


> It also has a lot to do with the fact that, in computing, RNG isn't TRUE randomization, computers for the most part, cannot generate TRUELY random numbers, just unpredictable, yet still ultimately predetermined ones. Hard to explain in layman's terms (and off the top of my head loool) But it's the same story to why shuffling your music playlist can feel same-y and repetitive. interesting stuff, people should look into.



Yeah if it's not true RNG, then the chance of you seeing a repeat at 24 islands is even higher than 50%.  I know what you're talking about, it's called pseudo-randomness, where it uses a set formula and set parameters that are basically almost random, but not quite.  Take Pokemon and shiny hunting for example, especially in the GBA RSE games when you could find out which frame exactly would give you a shiny.


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## Miqo (Apr 15, 2020)

I did about 11 or 12 islands in a row just yesterday, each and every island I went to I would clear out and farm any atlas moths and tarantulas that I could find, even kept water bugs just so I didn't spend too long. I literally had one island with Renée to start, then the second was a spiral island with someone I didn't want, then literally straight after that it was the exact same island as the first time with Renée.. and then another spiral island with a different villager, again, one I didn't want.

It is very tiresome and very demotivating when you farm all those tickets, only to have to deal with this kind of stuff. Especially when they cost 2k a pop, you find yourself grinding for hours or even days to get enough for a mass headhunt and come out with next to nothing you wanted..

_I mean, unless you're like me and make the most of farming bugs on every island you get, but that's because I have nothing better to do._


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## Keepitcosmic (Apr 15, 2020)

Hey there!! i have every single amiibo card if you find yourself with an empty plot and want a dreamie, i’d be happy to give you one for free. i just spent 300+ tickets looking for raymond, so i totally get the frustration


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## trashpedia (Apr 15, 2020)

I'm starting island hopping tomorrow because Lionel is in boxes rn and I'm really nervous I'm going waste a bunch of tickets trying to find a villagers I want or some random I don't like is going to move in. I have around 20-30 villagers that would be considered "dreamies" of mine and trying to widen my choices but seeing how some people are getting repeat villagers, that's going to be a challenge >-<


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## brockbrock (Apr 15, 2020)

trashpedia said:


> I'm starting island hopping tomorrow because Lionel is in boxes rn and I'm really nervous I'm going waste a bunch of tickets trying to find a villagers I want or some random I don't like is going to move in. I have around 20-30 villagers that would be considered "dreamies" of mine and trying to widen my choices but seeing how some people are getting repeat villagers, that's going to be a challenge >-<



If you have 20 villagers you should statistically have a greater than 50% chance of finding one of them after using 15 tickets!

Best of luck to you!


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## trashpedia (Apr 15, 2020)

brockbrock said:


> If you have 20 villagers you should statistically have a greater than 50% chance of finding one of them after using 15 tickets!
> 
> Best of luck to you!



Ooooooh interesting ^-^ Thank you!


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## matt2019 (Apr 15, 2020)

Yeah I searched for days and only came across one cat and one dog. It’s always the bad villagers I get


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## Katarzyna (Apr 15, 2020)

You definitely saw some rare villagers tho! Judy twice!
Wearing DAL gear does improve your chances


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## Dewy (Apr 15, 2020)

Hey OP I have Tasha's Amiibo card, I can move her in then force her out for you if you want? If you don't mind adopting a villager that was forced out through Amiibo, that is (although I think they fixed the glitch..?)


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## Globes216 (Apr 15, 2020)

I absolutely feel your pain. I have been looking for a snooty villager for almost 3 whole days doing about 20-30 tours a day. It is absolutely awful to gain all these NMT just to be useless in the end. out of maybe 50ish tours I found one snooty villager (Elise) about 3-4 trips in. I had her in New Leaf so didn't want her again. Since then I have not come across a single other snooty villager yet have found Zucker, Lolly, Angus, Elmer and Boots all 2 times. I know its basically random but I must be so unlucky


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## Fluuffy (Apr 16, 2020)

So what this thread is saying is that I need atleast 300NMT/600Mileage pts to even have a good chance on finding Teddy? ;-; I went island hopping a few days ago and only saw 3 bears I think and one cat (no chance at raymond). Also I find that the act of redeeming miles for one tickets or item so tedious. I redeemed quite an an amount only for me to go crazy waiting for ONE TICKET. ONE ;-; Don’t think i’ll be island hopping anymore if the chances so low and getting tickets so long.


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## jiojiop (Apr 16, 2020)

Globes216 said:


> I absolutely feel your pain. I have been looking for a snooty villager for almost 3 whole days doing about 20-30 tours a day. It is absolutely awful to gain all these NMT just to be useless in the end. out of maybe 50ish tours I found one snooty villager (Elise) about 3-4 trips in. I had her in New Leaf so didn't want her again. Since then I have not come across a single other snooty villager yet have found Zucker, Lolly, Angus, Elmer and Boots all 2 times. I know its basically random but I must be so unlucky


I've also been trying to find one little Snooty. And I keep getting Erik and Kabuki and such like. Great villagers... but I really need a Snooty atm!

If I get Erik again I'll cave and take him.


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## Saga (Apr 16, 2020)

Fluuffy said:


> So what this thread is saying is that I need atleast 300NMT/600Mileage pts to even have a good chance on finding Teddy? ;-; I went island hopping a few days ago and only saw 3 bears I think and one cat (no chance at raymond). Also I find that the act of redeeming miles for one tickets or item so tedious. I redeemed quite an an amount only for me to go crazy waiting for ONE TICKET. ONE ;-; Don’t think i’ll be island hopping anymore if the chances so low and getting tickets so long.



I agree that using NMT isn't the best way to guarantee a villager you're looking for, true. But just as you can get absolutely terrible RNG, you can also have extremely good RNG. I've found three dreamies - one took three tickets, and the other two each only took two tickets.

That said, if there is only one villager you want, probably you're better of trading for them or buying them. I had a list of 12 dreamies who I was open to adopting, so that's probably I was able to find three of them so quickly.


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## Sheba (Apr 16, 2020)

Oh hey, there's people here who feel my pain; I made a thread like this today as well.
I'm still (since almost two weeks, "yay"...) at the point where I'm supposed to place down the three initial plots and invite a Lazy, Normal and Peppy. Got Drago and Fauna super-fast and am happy with those for Lazy and Normal, but as for the Peppy ones, I originally wanted to go for Dotty or Bunnie. Over 100 tickets in and _I've yet to see a single rabbit_. 8/48 Peppy Villagers are rabbits. How can I not see a single one of those in, by now, 117 Mystery Tours which show me only Peppy villagers?! 

On a different note, I saw Audie today for the first time...and then three times in a row. 

By now, Pinky holds the record with eight appearances, followed by Wendy with seven and there's a few with six, five or four appearances. This is not even RNG and I am so, so upset. I don't own amiibos and all I want is to advance my game at this point, but given how Dotty and Bunnie are my two favourite villagers and I also really like Ruby and the other rabbits, I just refuse to give up. But it seems impossible at this point.

I still think it might be daytime related as I can only play for the same hours every night and stayed up some longer just to test things and boom, suddenly Audie. But I'm not sure, of course it might just be not-random-RNG...


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## ElenaSmiles (Apr 16, 2020)

I was pretty positive it was just bad RNG, but there was one day where I saw Octavian, Bubbles, Bangle, and Patty an INSANE amount of times. I think I saw Patty 3 times within 10 tickets.


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## AshdewCrossing (Apr 16, 2020)

Funny that you saw Octavian 3 times and Zucker twice. I was reading a thread on this same topic a few days ago and everyone agreed that they saw the 3 octopi an unusually high number of times. Perhaps the game randomises by species rather than by villager?


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## Sheba (Apr 16, 2020)

AshdewCrossing said:


> Funny that you saw Octavian 3 times and Zucker twice. I was reading a thread on this same topic a few days ago and everyone agreed that they saw the 3 octopi an unusually high number of times. Perhaps the game randomises by species rather than by villager?


I would say that this is likely true. I'm only getting Peppy villagers right now, so there's no Octopi in my pool, but I feel like 80% of the animals I get are bears or mice, which leads - given the limited amount of those when looking at only a single personality group - to the endless repeats I'm getting. I do get someone new and rare ever so often, but not getting rabbits despite eight of them being in a pool of almost 50 Peppys basically means that the whole species seems to be excluded for me.

The question is: Can this be stopped (as I'm at it for over a week now, trying to get rabbits) or is this something that's unique like our native fruits and flowers?


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## mayortiffany (Apr 16, 2020)

I wonder if the dataminers might be interested in gathering that kind of information. There's datamining about how flowers breed and the probability of getting a particular mystery island, so if there is a pattern to it rather than RNG, it should be findable within the code.

And for all of you looking for Raymond, don't lose hope! I was hunting for a snooty and found him on my 8th island tour, when I wasn't looking for him. Best of luck to all of you in your dreamie hunts!


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## IndoX (Apr 16, 2020)

AshdewCrossing said:


> Funny that you saw Octavian 3 times and Zucker twice. I was reading a thread on this same topic a few days ago and everyone agreed that they saw the 3 octopi an unusually high number of times. Perhaps the game randomises by species rather than by villager?


It's random. I've hunted 3 times in total for villagers. The first time I saw Zucker 3 times. The second I saw Zucker twice. The third time I saw Marina once and no other octopus. My third time hunting was my longest (~300 tickets).


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## Rowlet28 (Apr 16, 2020)

mayortiffany said:


> I wonder if the dataminers might be interested in gathering that kind of information. There's datamining about how flowers breed and the probability of getting a particular mystery island, so if there is a pattern to it rather than RNG, it should be findable within the code.
> 
> And for all of you looking for Raymond, don't lose hope! I was hunting for a snooty and found him on my 8th island tour, when I wasn't looking for him. Best of luck to all of you in your dreamie hunts!



I see a lot of posts getting him when he is not even their dreamies lol.


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## sicklewillow (Apr 16, 2020)

mewto28 said:


> I see a lot of posts getting him when he is not even their dreamies lol.


I think there's a phenomenon or something (I don't know what it called) that if you want something real bad, life will give you the opposite of what you want.


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## An0nn (Apr 16, 2020)

I've had one day I did any serious island hopping so far (though it's pretty tame compared to what some of you have endured). I went to the island maybe 30-40 times? I ran into Zucker twice and Octavian either three or four times. My game attracts octopi like crazy apparently. I got Marina as my random normal move-in too.

The first time I went to an island I got Audi, who I love! When I actually went looking for villagers, I saw Blanche first. I ended up passing on her and regretted it, because after that it was just a steady stream of octopi and chickens.

I'm sorry that you're feeling so discouraged, that's no fun. I hope you're able to find something there you like soon.


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## Lio (Apr 16, 2020)

I feel your pain. I spend so many tickets hopping for Raymond and Audie, but less than I would have trying to trade for them, at least.

I decided to just trade for my last dreamie (Merengue) because it's not worth the soul-sucking RNG.


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## Rowlet28 (Apr 16, 2020)

sicklewillow said:


> I think there's a phenomenon or something (I don't know what it called) that if you want something real bad, life will give you the opposite of what you want.


I will save up some tickets again to get him but I dunno lol.


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## Lavulin98 (Apr 16, 2020)

I feel you! Yesterday I went to 30 islands to get a dreamie ( Judy, Fuchsia or Olivia) and I found 5-6 repeats damn it! Only saw one cat (Bob), passed him over since I was looking for either a normal or a dreamie. And I only found 2 normals in 30 islands??? Lots of elephants and birds.


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## Garrett (Apr 16, 2020)

I feel you too! I had twenty tickets and spent the evening island hopping and bumping into mostly birds, which along with mice is my least favourite species in the game. I even met the loathsome Anchovy on tarantula island.

This morning, I woke up to a sold plot with Yuka's name in it. Ah well, time to fish out my amiibo cards. Yuka will be toast in two days.


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## Mink777 (Apr 16, 2020)

Yeah, I got Cashmere and Deena twice in like 10 tickets. Feels like a waste of time, and I don’t recommend doing it. I’d be happy to see Nintendo remove NMT entirely in an update.


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## Underneath The Stars (Apr 16, 2020)

the way that i want NONE of those villagers aside from bluebear and hamlet omg (i have lyman already tho)
yeah there has to be a rarity pool that's a factor


	Post automatically merged: Apr 16, 2020



moon_child said:


> It’s luck. And as with all things in life, most often than not, you aren’t given what you’re wanting the most when you want it the most. You’re most likely to find what you’re not searching for. The key to enjoying the island tours is having an open mind. The more specific villagers you’re looking for, the least likely you’ll find them. And you’ll really waste a lot of tickets if you’re looking for a specific one.



i come to island tours with an open mind and STILL it's more likely i'll meet villagers i don't care for (maybe for about 60 tickets wasted). i'm not even that specific, let's say i have 7 dreamies i want to move in, that's low but my back up/villagers i'd want to meet is probably around 30. so there has to be some form of rarity percentages because even by creatures--cubs, squirrels (the cute ones) & cats are hard to come by. i always see pigs, chickens and gorillas, which happens to be very unpopular.

for some reason tho, octopi always appearing despite being used to be rare.


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## IndoX (Apr 16, 2020)

I ended up with a long hunt of about ~400 tickets tonight. I saw multiple duplicates. By far my most seen villager had to be Erik and Bam at 5+ times.

Out of the 400+ islands I did today these are the villagers I can recall I saw more than once off the top of my head: Marina, Bam, Erik, Audie and Sherb. I had the occasional one off villager that stood out: Ketchup, Stitches, Ankha and Marshal (who I ended up with because it was near 5am).

Those account for maybe ~30 tickets at most when I reflect back on it. The ~350 tickets remaining I honestly couldn't tell you who I ran into. Most of the time I saw it wasn't who I wanted and ignored them. All in all, people have a tendency of selective memory especially when you're doing a task such as island hopping. The encounter rate seemed about right given that I was 400 in. If you make it several hundred tickets deep your duplicate rate is going to be near 80%+. It's just the way probability works.

Also no, I did not encounter Judy or Raymond. But my top 3 were Judy, Raymond and Marshal so I'm not too mad about it.


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## Romaki (Apr 16, 2020)

The thing is, that is RNG working without any intervention. Spotify for example doesn't play songs genuinely randomly, because otherwise you'd often listen to the same songs twice in a row. But as a music streaming service it does factor in your preferences and what you skip often.

So it's obvious that Nintendo didn't prevent the same villager from showing up twice in a row, and it's reasonable to think that they didn't add every single villager to the pool. Or maybe they give each villager a rarity and some can only show up once in a 100 tries? But real RNG just sucks because it's truly random, you might as well just get villager 35 three times in a row and after that villager 26 four times as well.


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## JKDOS (Apr 16, 2020)

RenaiRider said:


> Trying to play the game legit can really suck. Along with the plot/void bugs and feeling pressured to bulk island hop in one day, the most important parts of the game are very frustrating rn.



The main problem is I don't believe Nintendo ever intended everyone to go mad and start farming NMTs all day and grinding Islands all for 1 (or more) specific villagers. It was just meant to be a simple mechanic where you visit the islands for resources, and meet a new face and potentially invite them to your island that you built and are building.


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## sicklewillow (Apr 16, 2020)

JKDOS said:


> The main problem is I don't believe Nintendo ever intended everyone to go mad and start farming NMTs all day and grinding Islands all for 1 (or more) specific villagers. It was just meant to be a simple mechanic where you visit the islands for resources, and meet a new face and potentially invite them to your island that you built and are building.


I would like to believe so but the requirements to have an open plot seems to indicate otherwise. If they intend what you have said, why are there no villager on island if you have a full town or doesn't have an open plot like the campsite. :/


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## Underneath The Stars (Apr 16, 2020)

sicklewillow said:


> I would like to believe so but the requirements to have an open plot seems to indicate otherwise. If they intend what you have said, *why are there no villager on island if you have a full town or doesn't have an open plot like the campsite*. :/



i wanna ask this too.
and i find it hard to believe that nintendo is not aware of the sought after villagers, or did not see the foreseeable effect of people trying to look for their favorite villagers.


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## niko2 (Apr 16, 2020)

They probably want people to experience other villagers, not only the "popular" ones.


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## sicklewillow (Apr 16, 2020)

I don't know... People do have preference... why do they need to control who the player want in their own island?

For example, I really like Raymond, Kid Cat and Marshal because I like their design, not because they're popular.


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## RomanRichter (Apr 16, 2020)

Just a theory: Maybe this is also made to endorse online and amiibos, slightly? (and endorsed ebay bandwagon as result)
You know the way today AAA company do shady stuff: Create a problem, Sale you Solution.


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## Ploom (Apr 16, 2020)

just skimming through this it seems like people all get different duplicates frequently (apart from the weirdly common octopi..?) For me its Marina, Apollo and some others i can't remember right now that I see a ton, but I also think it could just be coincidence.
And yeah as someone who has gone through probably 400+ tickets and has yet to find the last two I'm really searching for, I can say its discouraging, but I don't think its unfair. I'm much more happy with being able to search for my villagers like this rather than how it was in new leaf where I would pretty much assume I had to buy a villager off someone to obtain it. I like being able to know if I farm long enough I'll find them, and even when I'm getting what I feel like is a ton of duplicates, theres always ones I hadn't encountered yet thrown in too so I feel like its just how real probability/rng works.
also I love being able to see all these villagers in person; theres been some I ended up taking that I never would have planned on because they surprised me by being so cute in person


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## Underneath The Stars (Apr 16, 2020)

RomanRichter said:


> Just a theory: Maybe this is also made to endorse online and amiibos, slightly? (and endorsed ebay bandwagon as result)
> You know the way today AAA company do shady stuff: Create a problem, Sale you Solution.



except they're earning nothing from all those ebay resellers



sicklewillow said:


> I don't know... People do have preference... why do they need to control who the player want in their own island?
> 
> For example, I really like Raymond, Kid Cat and Marshal because I like their design, not because they're popular.



yup, most of my favorite villagers aren't even popular. i'd understand if new horizons is one of the first installments of the game, you know, before we grew attached to their characters & have made villager friends. but no. of course you'd want some of your old villagers back! it is how it is. it's also kinda apparent that they know about the favorite villagers, that's why they released the amiibos and ACNL welcome amiibo update. and then pocket camp made it sooooo much easier to invite your favorite villagers too, like they even mention that on their posts lol. you just need to craft them their requests or clear their map.
i don't know why we're still playing the villager hunt game when they're not even earning anything for the amiibos cards. and we know that most players are gonna want or try to move out villagers asap if they don't want them anyway. are we still pretending that we play this game to get random villagers???


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## RenaiRider (Apr 16, 2020)

sicklewillow said:


> I would like to believe so but the requirements to have an open plot seems to indicate otherwise. If they intend what you have said, why are there no villager on island if you have a full town or doesn't have an open plot like the campsite. :/



To add onto this, and what I don't think people get when they suggest to be "casual" about island hopping, is the massive issue with "open plots" left after someone moves out.

Why couldn't they have let us choose _when_ to put down a plot after someone moves out? Instead, we have 1-3 days of island hopping with the impending threat of someone you really dislike moving into your town, then not being able to see any more villagers on islands because they stop spawning.

I think a nice compromise would've been that islands worked like the campsite, where villagers always show up on the islands, so you don't feel pressured to wait for the tiny windows they give us when we have free space available. I would love to take my time with all of this.

_And don't get me started on if you happen to be naively careless and let someone's voided villager occupy your plot with the "moved out" glitch._


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## Underneath The Stars (Apr 16, 2020)

RenaiRider said:


> To add onto this, and what I don't think people get when they suggest to be "casual" about island hopping, is the massive issue with "open plots" left after someone moves out.
> 
> Why couldn't they have let us choose _when_ to put down a plot after someone moves out? Instead, we have 1-3 days of island hopping with the impending threat of someone you really dislike moving into your town, then not being able to see any more villagers on islands because they stop spawning.
> 
> ...



oh gosh... you absolutely understand what i'm going through. i haven't plotted my 10th land because of this!!! i have work in the morning, so i can only visit the islands at night at a limited time, so i can't really risk it if i end up falling asleep with an open plot. the mechanic or "trick" to visit a full island to clear the void isn't even proven for new horizons, so i don't wanna take a risk.


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## mizzsnow (Apr 16, 2020)

Even though it's RNG I think it's really hard to believe it's more likely that you can find the same villagers two or three times in such a short amount of trips over finding literally anyone else?? I really feel like there's something influencing the villagers you get


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## JKDOS (Apr 16, 2020)

sicklewillow said:


> I would like to believe so but the requirements to have an open plot seems to indicate otherwise. If they intend what you have said, why are there no villager on island if you have a full town or doesn't have an open plot like the campsite. :/



The open plot makes sense because you need to open a plot to invite someone in. I don't know how that 1 requirement proves Nintendo wanted us to farm for "dreamies"


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## sicklewillow (Apr 16, 2020)

JKDOS said:


> The open plot makes sense because you need to open a plot to invite someone in. I don't know how that 1 requirement proves Nintendo wanted us to farm for "dreamies"


The time limit is the frustrating part. I mean, there are a lot of villagers in the pool. And technically, you invite the villager you like! It all comes to preference, you might be okay to whoever it is available but we do we have preference who some of us we would like to invite back and the moving out of your less preferred villagers is painstaking. I wouldn't minded it if it's not as difficult to move out a villager.

Also, having an open plot makes sense. Why is the campsite still works even if you don't have an open plot?


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## jeni (Apr 16, 2020)

This really makes me wonder how the "randomisation" works. I've got every gorilla villager at LEAST two times, and I keep bumping into Renée, Sheldon and Zucker more times than I can count (which makes me feel bad when I leave the island cause I know so many people go out looking for Zucker). Sometimes it feels like they know what villagers you want and give them a lower appearance rate lol


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## katineko (Apr 16, 2020)

Perhaps the upcoming player's guide will have a few tips on all of this? I don't know, just a thought. So are you guys using Amiibo cards? Do they work? I was wondering because I heard more might come out for NH. For example, I really want Coco and a bunch of cat villagers. Would I spent my NMTs to island hop or make a list of my dreamies and get a couple of amiibos? Are amiibos considered the easy way out? I'm all new to this, so there is quite a bit of villager/island tour stuff I don't understand.


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## sicklewillow (Apr 16, 2020)

katineko said:


> Perhaps the upcoming player's guide will have a few tips on all of this? I don't know, just a thought. So are you guys using Amiibo cards? Do they work? I was wondering because I heard more might come out for NH. For example, I really want Coco and a bunch of cat villagers. Would I spent my NMTs to island hop or make a list of my dreamies and get a couple of amiibos? Are amiibos considered the easy way out? I'm all new to this, so there is quite a bit of villager/island tour stuff I don't understand.


I don't think people will look down on you if you got the amiibo cards of your favorite villagers. If you have the time to grind for NMTs and not mind the gatcha feel of Mystery Tour. I would say go island hopping.  It is rewarding once you found your favorite villager. Otherwise, getting the amiibo of your favorite villager would also be great and save those NMTs for those who haven't got their amiibo cards yet.


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## katineko (Apr 16, 2020)

I see. Sorry for the newbie question, but what's the point of island hopping and mystery islands?


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## sicklewillow (Apr 16, 2020)

katineko said:


> I see. Sorry for the newbie question, but what's the point of island hopping and mystery islands?



Depends. It's either for resource gathering like hybrid flowers, farming iron etc or to earn bells (Money Rock Island and Tarantula Island) or look for your favorite villager.


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## Yagito (Apr 16, 2020)

JKDOS said:


> The open plot makes sense because you need to open a plot to invite someone in. I don't know how that 1 requirement proves Nintendo wanted us to farm for "dreamies"


I feel like the biggest issue lies in the fact that once you meet those requirements to invite someone in, it suddenly becomes very stressful and worrisome because as far as I understand a villager can just move in on their own if you don't find someone via island hopping. It takes a really long time to be able to get enough tickets if you really want to farm for someone that you'd like rather than having RNG decide who you get if you didn't farm enough in the time that you're given.

Needing to have one open plot does make sense, but then as someone else said, you can still get campsite visitors with a full island, so why not just be able to see NMT islanders and be able to invite them to visit your campsite?

When I think about animal crossing I don't want to be stressed or worried about who my villagers are going to be because I'm not someone who TTs for my villagers to move out or to show up in the campsite. It's honestly painful having to keep around villagers that I really don't like and just waiting for them to suddenly decide when they want to move out, but only to have a villager I care about ask about moving out and having to wait another ~week to get another chance at replacing them, and then stressing out about if I have enough NMT to find who I want.


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## JKDOS (Apr 16, 2020)

sicklewillow said:


> Also, having an open plot makes sense. Why is the campsite still works even if you don't have an open plot?



Because that's part of the whole point of the campsite. For villagers to camp. Even New Leaf worked this way. The only difference is this time, if you like a camper, you can invite one in at the expense of one of your current villagers. (Though it can be exploited through quitting without saving)




katineko said:


> So are you guys using Amiibo cards? Do they work?



I've brought in 6 villagers so far with amiibo, and plan to bring in 3 more over the next 9 days.


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## sicklewillow (Apr 16, 2020)

Let's just agree to disagree. Clearly we will not reach an agreement on the matter since we have vastly different opinion on the matter.


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## Boo. (Apr 16, 2020)

Went to 30 islands today, all the villagers were garbage tier. I want to play my game as naturally as possible without TT or amiibos etc, but damn its irksome to have a town full of gorillas and cows.


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## Mello (Apr 16, 2020)

I applaud the tenacity of those who island hop 40+ times consecutively to hunt for their dreamies. I don't think I'd be able to do that, and luckily I didn't have to. Got mine in under 10 tickets total. 

Though, I've got a sneaking suspicion that perhaps villagers are pooled into different rarity tiers in the game and those that are lower rarity have a higher spawn chance on the islands. Doesn't seem to be too far fetched.


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## Renivere (Apr 16, 2020)

I had really bad luck with island hopping too!
I was looking for 3 villagers, and after 319 tickets I finally found one of them but I saw Simon WAY too often compared to every other villager


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## vampyre (Apr 16, 2020)

i got ava 3 times in a row one time, so i feel like there’s no way it’s pure RNG

that or i just have horrible luck


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## ctar17 (Apr 16, 2020)

Honestly, it's probably just RNG.  A previous poster said it earlier as well as my comments earlier.  RNG means each roll is the same 1/391 chance for a specific villager.  Just because you get a villager in the previous 1, 2, 5, 10, 20, or 50 islands doesn't make it any less likely to get the same villager on the next roll.  The repeats are bound to happen and I think as of now, unless someone does a statistical analysis of this to see if there's any pattern (which you could do with a large sample size and null hypothesis testing, T test, Chi^2, some other test...), it's just RNG.  The perceived pattern is mere coincidence and superstition.  I've found my hunts to be pretty random, and I believe I just have had bad luck when I look for a specific personality lol.  Also goes the other way, going to 391 or 500+ islands doesn't guarantee you'll see the one you want during that time.  Same chance on roll 1 as on roll 500

I don't think that Nintendo would make a rarity tier...  Also people tend to remember the weird coincidences like getting a villager twice in a row, or getting a species more often than not.  The brain is designed to pick up on patterns easily, and sometimes it will make a pattern out of just random noise.  That's why you really need to do statistical testing to test if it's true RNG or not, can't just rely on our brains because we are hardwired to look for patterns naturally


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## Envy (Apr 16, 2020)

mewto28 said:


> Spent 250+ NMT and still no Raymond. I got a lot of really good villagers like Ankha and Rosie but decided not to get any and ended up getting a random which I didn't like. Looking to get more but I'm all used up on miles and tickets...



I hate it when that happens. It kept me from being adventurous during my earlier try for villagers, because you could really waste all of those tickets and not even get the best ones you saw.

It would help if each villager you met and talked to ended up in a contacts somewhere where you could invite them. I know that seems too easy, but it's just too easy to get burned with the way things are right now.


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## Rowlet28 (Apr 16, 2020)

Envy said:


> I hate it when that happens. It kept me from being adventurous during my earlier try for villagers, because you could really waste all of those tickets and not even get the best ones you saw.
> 
> It would help if each villager you met and talked to ended up in a contacts somewhere where you could invite them. I know that seems too easy, but it's just too easy to get burned with the way things are right now.


That would kind of be like pocket camp though.


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## Envy (Apr 16, 2020)

ctar17 said:


> I don't think that Nintendo would make a rarity tier...



I don't know. I thought I heard that there were certain Amiibo cards that were rarer to get in packs than others. Nintendo definitely has a rarity tier in mind.



mewto28 said:


> That would kind of be like pocket camp though.



Well, yes, PC does allow for inviting, but this feature wouldn't really bring the game closer to it or anything. PC is bad for shallow, repetitive gameplay, RNG pulls (aka lootboxes), and limited resources combined with microtransactions. NH is much better, and still would be with this feature improved.


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## Miss Misty (Apr 16, 2020)

It may just be RNG but I agree with others that it seems a little oddly weighted. I've run into every cow, bull, pig, gorilla, rhino, lion, hippo, and elephant (minus Cyd), most of the frogs, kangaroos, and monkeys _multiple_ times each. I have yet to see a single squirrel, alligator, ostrich, or goat. Like many others, I've been keeping a spreadsheet of every villager I've seen, so I know it's not just memory bias.


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## thelonewanderer (Apr 16, 2020)

I found 2 dreamies in 32 islands.  Whitney and Vivian!


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## Hoosker (Apr 16, 2020)

I've gotten pretty lucky with mystery islands...
Sure, I see freaking Rocco the Hippo on EVERY mystery island spree I go on, but I've also found Stitches, Fauna, Fang, all 3 Octopi, and Tia through maybe 40 NMT trips?

I think I saw someone mention on another thread they're pretty sure the game RNGs a species first, then a specific villager. This makes sense based on how many people see the Octopus villagers so often.
But a rarity tier also wouldn't surprise me...

Honestly, being able to search for villagers in this way is liberty we've NEVER had in AC games before. I remember the days of kicking someone out, and PRAYING someone good shows up in my town in the following days, and that they don't dump their house in the middle of my paths.
This level of autonomy in picking villagers is uncharted territory, and I'm just grateful to have the chance at all!


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## Bk1234 (Apr 16, 2020)

Hoosker said:


> Honestly, being able to search for villagers in this way is liberty we've NEVER had in AC games before. I remember the days of kicking someone out, and PRAYING someone good shows up in my town in the following days, and that they don't dump their house in the middle of my paths.
> This level of autonomy in picking villagers is uncharted territory, and I'm just grateful to have the chance at all!


I agree! We should be very grateful, we basically get to pick all our villagers except the first campsite villager (if you reset for the starters).


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## seafarings (Apr 16, 2020)

Maiana said:


> For me, the villagers I'm trying to find are Francine, Chrissy, and Tasha. I have spent over 266+ Nook Tickets and they have yet to show up. I'm currently island hopping right this moment, and I have almost seen every Snooty villager besides Francine and Tasha. It's interesting..


Francine visited my campsite a few days ago but I wasn’t interested in picking her up :s


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## JKDOS (Apr 16, 2020)

Bk1234 said:


> I agree! We should be very grateful, we basically get to pick all our villagers except the first campsite villager (if you reset for the starters).



If you don't invite the first camper in, do they stay camped in your town forever?


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## Bk1234 (Apr 16, 2020)

JKDOS said:


> If you don't invite the first camper in, do they stay camped in your town forever


Unfortunately, yes. It is mandatory.


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## Alolan_Apples (Apr 16, 2020)

I haven’t seen a villager on a Nook Miles Island in a long time. However, there is a catch on whether or not an island visit is worth it.

If it’s that Tarantula Island visit, it’s worth more than I can imagine.

If it’s a Money Rock Island, I would strongly approve.

If it’s the Trash Island, it’s not worth it. Not only every fish I can catch is trash, but there’s no way I can catch a tarantula on that island.

If it’s any island with a note in a bottle or a fossil, I would say it’s worth it.


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## ctar17 (Apr 16, 2020)

One real quick test that we could do real quick to get a sense of the randomness:

Compare number of octopus (Marina, Zucker, and Octavian) islands to number of notOctopus islands or total islands in a set sample.

Since there's only 3 octopuses and they're quite memorable, we can use a null hypothesis test to see if we're getting roughly around 3/391 for the frequency we see an octopus or is it much greater?

I've also been keeping an incomplete spreadsheet of my island hopping, but will move to a more detailed one for the next spree I go on (no one is asking to move out lol)  But if any of y'all wanna DM me your data/spreadsheets so far, I'll see if I can find anything with the Octopus test lol


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## Loubelle (Apr 16, 2020)

I'm not sure if this has been said yet, but the villagers that are on islands appear to be of a type you don't have or in a certain pattern in which you are expected to get villager types, so if you notice that the villagers you encounter are the same types, that may be why you are getting duplicates as well as not getting who you are looking for if they are different personality type


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## lunachii (Apr 16, 2020)

I also refuse to believe its RNG as I've seen the same villagers a few times, always the lions, one time I even saw 2 of the same lion villager in a row on two islands in a row.. like. ?? And I've yet to see horse, cats and wolf villagers on the islands..


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## Calysis (Apr 16, 2020)

Welp I just went and did another 45 trips on my hunt for Raymond. At least 300 trips between my bf and I looking for this elusive cat. I wrote down who I encountered, if I found a hybrid island (unfortunately only encountered one this time), and I marked who I encountered more than once with a (2). Spoiler for those who are interested.


Spoiler



1. Lionel
2. Jeremiah
3. Hippeux
4. Bangle
5. Violet
6. Rodney
7. Tipper - tulip hybrids pink/black/orange
8. Gala
9. Twiggy
10. Avery
11. Victoria
12. Flora
13. Bangle (2)
14. Benjamin
15. Jay
16. Stu
17. Rhonda
18. Freya
19. Ricky
20. Rhonda (2)
21. Opal
22. Angus
23. Sterling
24. Annalise
25. Ruby
26. Fuchsia
27. Carmen
28. Admiral
29. Pinky
30. Jeremiah(2)
31. Pashmina
32. Fuchsia (2)
33. Benedict
34. Elvis
35. Tank
36. Billy
37. Octavian
38. Bluebear 
39. Vic
40. Naomi
41. Lopez
42. Boomer
43. Camofrog
44. Raddles
45. Boyd


I plan on writing down each villager I come across from now on. Wish me luck lmaooo.


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## Laureline (Apr 16, 2020)

i know how you feel, spent 150 looking for Judy. Got a lot of repeats and not one dreamie thats not Judy. Feeling real crushed over it.


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## Billchurchill (Apr 16, 2020)

solace said:


> I also found Sherb on a blue pansy hybrid island.


This is creepy... So did I..


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## RenaiRider (Apr 16, 2020)

Billchurchill said:


> Rh
> 
> This is creepy... So did I..


I also found my Sherb on a hybrid island. Hmmmm...


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## buny (Apr 16, 2020)

honestly i doubt its a good idea to look for dreamies on these tours, they clearly arent meant for that. i cant tell u or anyone how to play the game, but for me personally, not stressing over finding very specific villagers and being open to making new friends has helped enjoy the game to the fullest  i wish u luck next time tho!


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## Billchurchill (Apr 16, 2020)

RenaiRider said:


> I also found my Sherb on a hybrid island. Hmmmm...


I seriously think something is up. Like this can’t be a coincidence.


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## brockbrock (Apr 16, 2020)

I also found Sherb on a hybrid island, I'd just like to add...

But IIRC Raymond was _*not*_ on a hybrid island.


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## trashpedia (Apr 16, 2020)

I was planning to do at least 13 trips but shortened it to 11 because I found Stitches and didn't want to risk any more chances. I remember writing down 11 names but my phone didn't save so I tried to remember the ones I came across. 



Spoiler




Monty
Bianca
Octavian
???
Derwin (ewwwww)
Piper
Benjamin
Poncho
Caroline
Rocket
*Stitches*




I was considering whether or not to get Bianca at some point but then decided to skip her because I already had like 2 preppy villagers. Like I said, I highly doubt I'll ever get Raymond considering the kind of luck I normally have and how it's going to be like a 1/397 chance. I was also on the lookout for villagers I would be willing to have as well!



Spoiler




Zell
Beau
Erik
Goldie
Lolly
Molly
Jaques
Sterling
Coco
Marshal
Fauna
Diana
Kyle
Wolfgang
Chief
Bob
Lucky
Punchy
O'Hare
Bruce
Sherb
Daisy
Merengue
Julian 
Roscoe
This would mean that, with Raymond, I would have a 26/397 chance of getting someone on this list.


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## Hyoshido (Apr 16, 2020)

buny said:


> honestly i doubt its a good idea to look for dreamies on these tours, they clearly arent meant for that. i cant tell u or anyone how to play the game, but for me personally, not stressing over finding very specific villagers and being open to making new friends has helped enjoy the game to the fullest  i wish u luck next time tho!


Unfortunately a lot of people will do this since majority of people (and their uncles) in the AC fanbase love Raymond and would rather do island hopping compared to paying some of the absurd prices that cat is going for


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## AdehhRR (Apr 16, 2020)

It truly feels like they know what you want, and avoid giving you that (I know they can't actually design it that way). 

I didn't realise the hype behind Raymond, until I googled him when I came across him without trying, so I took him to maybe auction or give away at a later date.

I feel lucky but personally I'd have been much more excited over any of the octopus villagers.


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## sicklewillow (Apr 16, 2020)

I think some are missing the point. I like to think that some of us don't mind inviting other villagers to move in. The process of moving out a villager is equally frustrating that those who have preference have to be careful when setting down an open plot as well as the time limit when an plot is open after a villager move out.

Keep in mind that not all of us have amiibos to guarantee a move out as well.


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## Laureline (Apr 16, 2020)

I island hop for dreamies because I don’t have an absurd amount of nmt to offer people selling my dreamies. Also don’t have amiibos of my own. Sure I used 150 nmt in my recent island hoping, but I got them from selling a villager and previous tickets.


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## Mairen (Apr 16, 2020)

I can agree with some of the statements that unless you are a super lucky person, or have hundreds and hundreds of NMT to spare, it might be easier on your heart to come up with a list of maybe 10 potential villagers that you'd be willing to accept. And just keep on the lookout for good deals on your favorite one to appear at some point. Or maybe schedule a certain number of island visits and that's that.


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## Sanaki (Apr 16, 2020)

I also found Sherb on a hybrid island on my old island. Odd lol.

I decided to quit island hopping and just wait for a random move in while kicking out any smugs via amiibo. I'm a cycler so I realize this process isn't exactly ideal for most. Raymond randomly moved in on his own accord today, with the suspected help of missing a personality type. I feel like you're bound to get a set of villagers predetermined by your game on these random islands, like as if flowers were generated. I feel this way because I see the exact same villagers each time I do island hopping. I also have found Audie twice within 50-60 tickets, while seeing the same hippos many times, the same dogs many times, and no cats at all. I am only a small sample size though, I've only really owned about 130 tickets total. Everything seemed to be the same for me. It's really rare for me to find anything else. But I know I'm probably just speculating this, not speaking this into factuality.


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## Envy (Apr 16, 2020)

buny said:


> honestly i doubt its a good idea to look for dreamies on these tours, they clearly arent meant for that. i cant tell u or anyone how to play the game, but for me personally, not stressing over finding very specific villagers and being open to making new friends has helped enjoy the game to the fullest  i wish u luck next time tho!



For a lot of us, this is really our only hope. Amiibo cards are not practical to get, since they cost a fortune. And the villager market online? We won't get started on that one.


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## thelonewanderer (Apr 16, 2020)

lunachii said:


> I also refuse to believe its RNG as I've seen the same villagers a few times, always the lions, one time I even saw 2 of the same lion villager in a row on two islands in a row.. like. ?? And I've yet to see horse, cats and wolf villagers on the islands..



That really suck.  I have been to a total of only 32 islands.  I have 3 wolf villagers on my island thanks to the mystery island.  2 dreamies and one Lobo.

I saw a wolf villager 2 day in a row on the first and 2nd island of each day.


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## Bk1234 (Apr 16, 2020)

buny said:


> honestly i doubt its a good idea to look for dreamies on these tours, they clearly arent meant for that. i cant tell u or anyone how to play the game, but for me personally, not stressing over finding very specific villagers and being open to making new friends has helped enjoy the game to the fullest  i wish u luck next time tho!


We can also hope though, right? It felt amazing to see Erik on a NMT island... I think we should just broaden our "looking for" window.


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## buny (Apr 16, 2020)

Envy said:


> For a lot of us, this is really our only hope. Amiibo cards are not practical to get, since they cost a fortune. And the villager market online? We won't get started on that one.





Bk1234 said:


> We can also hope though, right? It felt amazing to see Erik on a NMT island... I think we should just broaden our "looking for" window.



well as i said im not telling u how u should play your game, just saying the islands arent rlly meant for that practically. and i've seen plenty of giveaways tho, there's always hope if ur in an online community, i got Lolly for free for example. either way im just hoping u all find a way to get your dreamies!!


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## Bk1234 (Apr 16, 2020)

buny said:


> well as i said im not telling u how u should play your game, just saying the islands arent rlly meant for that practically. and i've seen plenty of giveaways tho, there's always hope if ur in an online community, i got Lolly for free for example. either way im just hoping u all find a way to get your dreamies!!


You're right. Their main purpose is getting resources. We should just consider the villagers a nice bonus.


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## buny (Apr 16, 2020)

Bk1234 said:


> You're right. Their main purpose is getting resources. We should just consider the villagers a nice bonus.



everyone's free to view it how they want rlly ^^
but for me personally being willing to take villagers that i like but arent strictly in my dreamies list has helped a lot. I got Bob for example who isnt in my list, but i invited him and now i love him to pieces


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## sicklewillow (Apr 16, 2020)

buny said:


> everyone's free to view it how they want rlly ^^
> but for me personally being willing to take villagers that i like but arent strictly in my dreamies list has helped a lot. I got Bob for example who isnt in my list, but i invited him and now i love him to pieces


Personally, I really don't mind who I invite but the process of moving out a villager is not easy though and time limit imposed on an open plot is way too short.

You have to keep in mind that people have preferences and limiting options on players cut off their enjoyment of the game.


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## irisapfel (Apr 16, 2020)

I'm not sure if someone has mentioned this, but I think the campsite + time traveling method is more reliable than island hopping. With the campsite, I found that it narrows down on the villagers that are more likely to show up depending on your existing villagers. For example, I spent the past three days time traveling and checking the campsite for Sherb. I found that a _lot_ of lazy villagers were showing up in my campsite, more often than other personality types. I think it's because the campsite is designed to give you a personality type you didn't already have so that you can end up with a variety of personality types. I didn't have any lazy villagers which I think helped me find Sherb much faster!

TLDR; campsite + time traveling is helpful if you have one of every villager personality type EXCEPT for the personality type of the villager you are looking for!


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## Neechan (Apr 16, 2020)

i recall seeing portia, marina, ken and boots when I was trying to fill out plots.

I have only one duplicate and that was Elise


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## sicklewillow (Apr 16, 2020)

irisapfel said:


> I'm not sure if someone has mentioned this, but I think the campsite + time traveling method is more reliable than island hopping. With the campsite, I found that it narrows down on the villagers that are more likely to show up depending on your existing villagers. For example, I spent the past three days time traveling and checking the campsite for Sherb. I found that a _lot_ of lazy villagers were showing up in my campsite, more often than other personality types. I think it's because the campsite is designed to give you a personality type you didn't already have so that you can end up with a variety of personality types. I didn't have any lazy villagers which I think helped me find Sherb much faster!
> 
> TLDR; campsite + time traveling is helpful if you have one of every villager personality type EXCEPT for the personality type of the villager you are looking for!


Wish I could try this out. But it might spawn a Snooty since that's the personality that lacks in my island. Unfortunately, I'm not looking for a Snooty.


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## irisapfel (Apr 16, 2020)

sicklewillow said:


> Wish I could try this out. But it might spawn a Snooty since that's the personality that lacks in my island. Unfortunately, I'm not looking for a Snooty.


Yeah, I was missing snooty villagers too so both snooty and lazy villagers were showing up.


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## Eirrinn (Apr 16, 2020)

I have had fairly good luck with my nmt adventures 
I have noticed a pattern tho, whenever I go it seems like there’s a certain type of villager I will also get a lot of.


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## R. Planet (Apr 16, 2020)

While I was hopping I came across two pigs which made my fiance so damn angry because thats her favorite animal and all she wants is a pig. She's going hopping tomorrow. 

Hope she gets one...


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## Ezamoosh (Apr 17, 2020)

I've also seen a bunch of cows. My gf, who wants all the cows, was very happy about it lol. I'm also very curious about whether it is just completely RNG, it feels like it can't be.

Perhaps make a note of what villagers are currently in your island when you're doing island hopping. Maybe what you already have is somehow a determining factor.


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## Cadbberry (Apr 17, 2020)

Thats insane, I am so sorry you got that many repeats, RNG came for you and it wasn't nice


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## Keke (Apr 17, 2020)

I've been seeing a lot of wolves on the islands i have visited. Found Whitney, Audie, Skye and Wolfgang. Not that i'm complaining, took them all in, i love wolf villagers, but it is a bit odd.

Also, I found Wolfgang on a hybrid hyacinth island.


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## mermaidshelf (Apr 17, 2020)

I think you're right. I don't think it's a true RNG which explains why I heard of someone who saw Raymond 3 times. I think Nintendo is pushing us to play online with others (like giving us 1 variation of special Nook Miles furniture) and the Amiibo cards. They're currently reprinting them in Japan and Korea just got their first prints. Thank you for gathering data! I'd be interested to see what the codes say.


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## moon_child (Apr 17, 2020)

The game has weird RNG. Seriously. I made another island with the goal of making a foresty themed one and when I set off to look for my 3rd to 5th villagers, I ended up with pastel or colorful villagers (Merry, Skye and Filbert) as they were the most decent ones in the batch of 10 island trips I took. Lol. It really gives you what you’re not looking for. IT KNOWS. Hahahaha.


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## Rosch (Apr 17, 2020)

I once read in an old thread here that there is a method to shuffle the RNG and avoid repeats. You need to talk to them at least twice and decline when they ask to live in your island.

But I've been doing it and it wasn't true because I've had repeats regardless.


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## peachycrossing9 (Apr 17, 2020)

It really does suck, and I feel your pain. I wish amiibo cards weren't so expensive. >.<

I have a couple of amiibo cards of some of the dreamies I wanted, so that was good. But other than that, I have had no luck finding the other villagers I want (Wolfgang, Audie and Sherb). 
Having said that, I have been too close to 50 islands at this point, and I did come across Zucker which was someone i wanted, but it did take a couple of tries before I found him and I got some repeat villagers. 

The other day I went island hopping, and spent over 20 tickets trying to find the babies I wanted but in the end I gave up, left the plot open and let fate decide, and Diana moved in (I LOVE her).. So sometimes you get lucky :3


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## buny (Apr 17, 2020)

sicklewillow said:


> Personally, I really don't mind who I invite but the process of moving out a villager is not easy though and time limit imposed on an open plot is way too short.
> 
> You have to keep in mind that people have preferences and limiting options on players cut off their enjoyment of the game.



im not saying this is how people should play the game, i obviously know people have preferences and everyone wants their dreamies, i was just saying thats what worked for me


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## Raz (Apr 17, 2020)

Went island hopping today, as I had an open plot and I had to find someone to invite to the island. 

With 9 villagers, I had:

Antonio (jock)
Alfonso (lazy)
Camofrog (cranky)
Fang (cranky)
Felicity (peppy)
Marcie (normal)
Megan (normal)
Phoebe (uchi)
Soleil (snooty)

My only smug (Tex) left the island yesterday, which means, when I went to the mystery islands, I was primarily after another smug. The ones I had in mind were Marshal, Jacques and Henry. 

These were the villagers I found (in order)

Ozzie
Humphrey
Graham
Rodeo
Frank
Katt
Wart Jr.
Avery
Annalisa
Biff 
Becky
Marina 


As I was running out of tickets, I ended up inviting Marina, as I was thinking about eventually replacing Marcie with Bill, but I'll be ok with two normals (Bill will replace Antonio as soon as possible). 

The game seemingly was dead set on giving me a lazy or a cranky, but not a smug.


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