# Why you shouldn't island hop for Raymond (or any specific villager, really...)



## Mikaiah (May 15, 2020)

This is probably the dumbest post I've done all week. You're all welcome.

See, I had a dumb thought one day.
If you have 9 cat villagers and 1 open plot, what's the chance you get Raymond?

We know that the game rolls species first, with an equal weighting on every species.
There are 35 species in this game, so you have roughly a 1/35 chance of sighting a Cat villager (or any species) on a mystery island hop (~2.86%)

There are 23 cat villagers in the game.
ie, If you don't have any cats in your town, you then have a 1/23 chance of getting Raymond.
Altogether, that's a 1/805 (~0.12%) chance of getting Raymond on a mystery island hop, assuming you have no cat villagers.

But if you have 9 cat villagers, then the number of possible cat villagers goes from 23 to 14.
ie. if you have 9 cat villagers and 1 open plot, now you have a 1/14 chance of rolling Raymond, if the game already picked a cat villager.
Altogether, it's a 1/490 (~0.20%) chance of getting him. Better, but not great.

Another dumb thought:
What if you had all 3 Octopi? If you have all 3 (Zucker/Octavian/Marina), then assuming that island hops are still evenly rolling species first (which there's no evidence against) you have a 1/34 chance of sighting a cat villager (~2.94%)
I suppose if you just wanted to go after cat villagers specifically this could work, but it doesn't really seem that worth it, honestly.

However, with this method, you now have 17 cat villagers.
Total chance for getting Raymond is now 1/578 (~0.17%). I ended up worse, but I really should have known better LOL.

*tl;dr: use campsite method.*

updated 5/18 because this thread got bumped and i had the wrong number of cat villagers and it's going to haunt me


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## Mezzanine (May 15, 2020)

deleted


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## moon_child (May 15, 2020)

Yeah, not just Raymond actually but most popular villagers because most of them belong in species with a large pool to choose from. This is all not even including the fact that the NMT islands can yield SO. MANY. REPEATS. So many. Sometimes even back to back.


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## Mikaiah (May 15, 2020)

moon_child said:


> Yeah, not just Raymond actually but most popular villagers because most of them belong in species with a large pool to choose from. This is all not even including the fact that the NMT islands can yield SO. MANY. REPEATS. So many. Sometimes even back to back.


i know right... the only reason i thought of the 3 octopus thing was because I ran into them over and over and over again on one of my escapades... lol


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## toenuki (May 15, 2020)

i was considering island hopping for him... good thing i only have like 50 nmt max. Might still try but idk. What's the campsite method?


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## Romaki (May 15, 2020)

Well, guess I have too many cats on my island.  But I prefer taking someone I like over searching for a villager, that would drive me mad.


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## Mikaiah (May 15, 2020)

MayorAri said:


> i was considering island hopping for him... good thing i only have like 50 nmt max. Might still try but idk. What's the campsite method?


campsite method guide/faq here!



Romaki said:


> Well, guess I have too many cats on my island.  But I prefer taking someone I like over searching forna villager, that would drive me mad.


Yeah, my original dreamie list was like 30 villagers long (it's been edited down somewhat but it's still abotu 15 villagers) so I'm usually happy when I island hop lol. Been laying it off since I got my amiibos back though ^^;;


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## meggiewes (May 15, 2020)

It's not a reason to not island-hop. Some people like the rush of it just like some people like shiny pokemon hunting. I do agree that it isn't as convenient as the campsite method. The campsite method is just really long if you don't time travel.


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## marea (May 15, 2020)

I am doing the campsite method right now and i gotta say that even though it is a better way of finding that one villager you want, it is much more boring than island hopping. Visiting the isalnds is actually super helpful and fun, aside from that little bit of disappointment you get when it is not a villager you want.


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## Blueskyy (May 15, 2020)

Island hopping is fun if you have a general idea of what you’re looking for. Example: any cute lazy or peppy villagers...not looking specifically for just Sherb or just Audie.


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## wearebap (May 15, 2020)

can somebody explain campsite method to me?


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## kojuuro (May 15, 2020)

Yeah if you don't have the personality and are willing to TT, I'd suggest the campsite method as well. There's just too many villagers in the pool of cats, dogs, rabbits, etc. And in order to find a particular villager in that species, you need to be incredibly lucky.

	Post automatically merged: May 15, 2020



wearebap said:


> can somebody explain campsite method to me?


If you want a particular villager (let's say Raymond) and don't have a smug on your island, the game will try to give you the missing personality in your campsite. You have a much better chance at getting him through the campsite method since there aren't a lot of smug villagers. If you TT enough, you'll get him eventually without spending the NMT to island hop.


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## Iris_T (May 15, 2020)

Spoiler: Campsite method is awesome!









Just want to say that, sorry xD


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## visibleghost (May 15, 2020)

i might be dumb but seeing the math exhausts me. i understand it, though, at least i think i do

i wonder why it was done this way and not so thst all villagers have an equal chance of appearing


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## maple22 (May 15, 2020)

I wish the game would gauge mystery islanders on personality. I had 3 lazy villagers at one point, and I’d still get lazies on the island. If you lack one personality type, the chances of getting a villager of that type should increase


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## Blueskyy (May 15, 2020)

Ok I broke my own rule and hunted for Maddie or Ketchup specifically. I found Ketchup on ticket 29 though!


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## Lavamaize (May 15, 2020)

Hey if island hoping for a villager is enjoyable for you and makes you happy go for it!


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## Sharksheep (May 15, 2020)

Yeah I don't island hop for anyone specific. I have a big list of dreamies that I would love to have but I'm OK with having someone I never consider for a bit too. Unless I get super lucky I'm probably never going to have an island of dreamies since I don't plan on buying villagers from other people.


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## Ananas Dragon (May 15, 2020)

I spent 175 nmt hopping for judy, later gave up.

turns out i forgot diana wasn't in my town so I accidentally campsited for judy and found her


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## ctar17 (May 15, 2020)

The way probability works, after 2,400 islands, 95% of players will have found Raymond by that point.

Just a quick correction: there are 23 cats in the game, so the chance to find Raymond is 1/805.

I island hop because I'm not looking for a specific villager, I've got a long list of those that I like, so it hasn't been a problem for me.  Longest I've done is 70 to get a cranky I liked

Definitely use the campsite method if you're specifically after Raymond or Judy or any villager in a species with a lot of villagers.


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## charicharn (May 18, 2020)

Hello

I guess I got fortunate   I agree that it should figure on what personality you don't have and go from there


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## Catto (May 18, 2020)

ooh!! I never island hop but this makes so much sense!!! thank you for the info, small bump for everyone to read~


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## Cnydaquil (May 18, 2020)

good thing im too poor to save up over 20 nmt


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## Licorice (May 18, 2020)

Island hopping is a massive waste of time. Luckily all my villagers are not new so I could use amiibo cards.


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## seularin (May 18, 2020)

i got real lucky when island hopping for lolly   my first ticket !!!


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## mizzsnow (May 18, 2020)

Yeahh if you have a ton of NMT to island hop you're probably way better off just buying the villager off of someone else

I took the time to shake trees for new furniture and wasps to sell so it wasn't a total waste of time


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## Cnydaquil (May 18, 2020)

seularin said:


> i got real lucky when island hopping for lolly   my first ticket !!!


dude your soo lucky!


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## seularin (May 18, 2020)

MissMelody said:


> dude your soo lucky!



it wasn't exactly my _first _ticket-- i used six tickets before, took an hour break (since i kept running into the same villager qidkjs), landed on a bamboo island, and bam !!! my wife


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## Cnydaquil (May 18, 2020)

seularin said:


> it wasn't exactly my _first _ticket-- i used six tickets before, took an hour break (since i kept running into the same villager qidkjs), landed on a bamboo island, and bam !!! my wife


ah that happened to me once in pokemon 
shiny eevee hunting wasted an hour, took a break, first try shiny eevee.


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## BambieTheMayor (May 18, 2020)

Is it odd that I don't mind the... odds? (pun not intended)
Maybe it's just because I'm so used to staring at the screen, mindlessly pressing A to get through the dialogue in Pokémon X/Moon, only to reset because I didn't get shiny Fennekin/Rowlet, but I don't mind the dialogue (honestly when I watch Island Hoppers on YouTube complain about Orville's NMT dialogue, I get annoyed. It really isn't that bad!)

I'm also not a time traveler. Campsite method is an instant no-go. Plus, I'm not a shiny charm type of shiny hunter, haha.

*edit: By no means am I saying that campsite method users are doing it wrong/the island hopping method is the better one! I am only stating that I find the Island Hopping method to be more closely tied to shiny hunting, which is fun for me.


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## seularin (May 18, 2020)

MissMelody said:


> ah that happened to me once in pokemon
> shiny eevee hunting wasted an hour, took a break, first try shiny eevee.


eevee


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## Sweetley (May 18, 2020)

Guess I had huge luck finding Raymond after only spent 3-4 NMT the other day while not even searching for him specific, wow.

Otherwise, while it may be a waste of tickets (and also being frustrating) to go on island hopping, it's just so much fun for me somehow? Like, Idk, of course it's much easier to buy/trade a villager from another player, and yet I do enjoy searching for new villagers on Mystery Islands. Today for an example, I wasted over 20 NMT and yet was really happy when I found Hazel at the end.


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## Cnydaquil (May 18, 2020)

seularin said:


> eevee


y e s


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## JKDOS (May 18, 2020)

Mezzanine said:


> yea after reading this I don't think I'm gonna try island hopping for Kiki anymore



Are you okay with TT'ing? I can get you KiKi (for free) in about 6 days. The reason I bring up TT'ing is because you'd need an open plot when the day comes that I force KiKi out.


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## DJStarstryker (May 18, 2020)

I didn't hate Lopez, but this is a large reason I let Lopez go - I no longer have any smugs (the only personality I'm missing), so that means the chances of a smug at my campsite is high. I hope this will help me find Raymond.

I personally don't mind island hopping. It actually gives me the chance to meet new villagers and try out new villagers on the way to finding my dreamies. I have found Gladys, a new dreamy, thanks to meeting her via island hopping. I've also enjoyed every single villager that I've invited to live at my island via island hopping, even if some of them have only lived on my island for a short period of time.


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## Tiffany (May 18, 2020)

I was lucky and got Raymond in my campsite(also had no other smugs in my town. I did island hop for others though(i want molly,stitches, shep and bob but mostly im after the first 2). I won't island hop looking for anyone specific anymore. I sold Purrl and used those tickets I got for her to look for the villagers mentioned above. Naturally I didn't get any of them but on the 5th island i met a cute mouse named Bettina. I liked her but I didn't want to stop searching for the villagers I wanted that soon so I let her go. I regret doing that. Not only did I not find anyone while island hopping but the next day the plot had a sold sign on it. I got a voided villager named Boone  from an island I visited to talk to Celeste. So from now on I will island hoping i find a villager I really want but not really looking for them and if I find someone else I like I'll invite them to my island.


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