There are three things that are a given for Animal Crossing Wii U should Nintendo go ahead with adopting another home console version.
One, it won't sell well. Past console versions compared to hardware didn't sell well outside Japan. Even New Leaf has only 1/3 the sales in America that it has in Japan (nearly 4 million to about 1.3 million). The Wii U's install base isn't even 10 million at a time when it's now likely halfway through its life. It still has a few games coming that will help push the sales (Zelda, Star Fox, Mario Maker just to name a few), but only so many first party titles can carry a system as the GameCube showed 10 years ago. I predicted this system coming off the insanely popular Wii would be between N64 and SNES lifetime sales. Now, it looks like if it does pass GC's near 22 million, it's going to have a tough time catching N64's just below 33 million. Let's assume it makes 25 million lifetime. Let's also give the same attach rate for the console as the handheld. New Leaf sits around 8 million now with 50 million 3DS systems. That's about 15% using rounded numbers to make it easy to follow. Taking 15% of 25 million makes the total just over 3.5 million, which is about the same as the N64/GC iterations and City Folk, and that's assuming the same attach rate, which polls here and sales themselves show, there are more fans of the handheld version than console. It's likely to only reach about 1 to 2 million units due to the combined low Wii U install base and that Japan buys more Animal Forest games than Americans buy Animal Crossing games. Added to it the fact that the soonest the game would come out would be 2016 (worldwide at least) means it comes out very late in the U's lifetime. We already know Nintendo is thinking of the next console, they are likely going to give the U 5 to 6 years, meaning the U's successor is scheduled to hit around 2018.
Two, Nintendo will somehow or another figure Amiibo into it. We all know how well Amiibo sold, scalpers especially know. Nintendo already announced they're looking into other NFC chips to be installed, even mentioning using cards, which sounds a lot like the old e-reader Animal Crossing cards from 2002. They made far too much money off the Amiibo to simply abandon them, they'll somehow work them into the game.
Third, they'll somehow tie this game with the 3DS, similar to how they tied City Folk and Wild World with the suitcase. Perhaps they'll do a better job, but given how New Leaf is probably going to have 9 to 10 million units sold before it's dead, there's an outstanding chance Nintendo will again try to court them into playing the console version. Whether that means using Amiibo to transfer data, or making a new game that ties into New 3DS, and its Amiibo support remains to be seen.
Nintendo knows games, and knows Animal Crossing sells better in Japan than any other territory, and Japan loves handhelds (big surprise there), but the Wii U is not looking good right now, especially after the latest financial report. It needs all the games it can get, but maybe if they rebuild Animal Forest/Crossing again from the ground up like New Leaf they can maybe, possibly get the Wii U Animal Crossing game to match City Folk's lifetime sales, but that means a higher attach rate than New Leaf has to the 3DS.
One, it won't sell well. Past console versions compared to hardware didn't sell well outside Japan. Even New Leaf has only 1/3 the sales in America that it has in Japan (nearly 4 million to about 1.3 million). The Wii U's install base isn't even 10 million at a time when it's now likely halfway through its life. It still has a few games coming that will help push the sales (Zelda, Star Fox, Mario Maker just to name a few), but only so many first party titles can carry a system as the GameCube showed 10 years ago. I predicted this system coming off the insanely popular Wii would be between N64 and SNES lifetime sales. Now, it looks like if it does pass GC's near 22 million, it's going to have a tough time catching N64's just below 33 million. Let's assume it makes 25 million lifetime. Let's also give the same attach rate for the console as the handheld. New Leaf sits around 8 million now with 50 million 3DS systems. That's about 15% using rounded numbers to make it easy to follow. Taking 15% of 25 million makes the total just over 3.5 million, which is about the same as the N64/GC iterations and City Folk, and that's assuming the same attach rate, which polls here and sales themselves show, there are more fans of the handheld version than console. It's likely to only reach about 1 to 2 million units due to the combined low Wii U install base and that Japan buys more Animal Forest games than Americans buy Animal Crossing games. Added to it the fact that the soonest the game would come out would be 2016 (worldwide at least) means it comes out very late in the U's lifetime. We already know Nintendo is thinking of the next console, they are likely going to give the U 5 to 6 years, meaning the U's successor is scheduled to hit around 2018.
Two, Nintendo will somehow or another figure Amiibo into it. We all know how well Amiibo sold, scalpers especially know. Nintendo already announced they're looking into other NFC chips to be installed, even mentioning using cards, which sounds a lot like the old e-reader Animal Crossing cards from 2002. They made far too much money off the Amiibo to simply abandon them, they'll somehow work them into the game.
Third, they'll somehow tie this game with the 3DS, similar to how they tied City Folk and Wild World with the suitcase. Perhaps they'll do a better job, but given how New Leaf is probably going to have 9 to 10 million units sold before it's dead, there's an outstanding chance Nintendo will again try to court them into playing the console version. Whether that means using Amiibo to transfer data, or making a new game that ties into New 3DS, and its Amiibo support remains to be seen.
Nintendo knows games, and knows Animal Crossing sells better in Japan than any other territory, and Japan loves handhelds (big surprise there), but the Wii U is not looking good right now, especially after the latest financial report. It needs all the games it can get, but maybe if they rebuild Animal Forest/Crossing again from the ground up like New Leaf they can maybe, possibly get the Wii U Animal Crossing game to match City Folk's lifetime sales, but that means a higher attach rate than New Leaf has to the 3DS.
