Are villagers moving out totally random?

[bam94-]

I’ve had Bam on my island since I started the game on release day back in March 2020; he was one of my original villagers.

He has never asked to move out and I’ve played almost every day. All of my other original villagers have long moved on. I don’t even really speak to him anymore in the hopes that he’ll want to leave.

Is it totally random that a villager will want to leave? Has anyone else had a villager that just simply won’t leave?

 

[Mu~]

Yes, it's random and I hate Sterling because he never has the thought bubble, TT'd a lot in 2 diferentes occasions with no luck and ended up evicting someone else.

 

[bam94-]

Yes, it's random and I hate Sterling because he never has the thought bubble, TT'd a lot in 2 diferentes occasions with no luck and ended up evicting someone else.

Ahh I see, thank you! It’s so annoying that a villager I can talk to all the time and give gifts to asks to move out more times than the villager I am ignoring!

 

[Etown20]

It is random, but the odds favor villagers you have lower friendship with. Since you have had Bam that long, it's possible you have high friendship with him if you used to talk to him regularly (even if you stopped recently).

Friendship levels aren't visible to the player, but if you have an idea of what level you are at with each villager, there is a tool that shows you the odds each villager will ask to leave when a move out is due:

villager move out calculator

 

[JKDOS]

It is random, but the odds favor villagers you have lower friendship with. Since you have had Bam that long, it's possible you have high friendship with him if you used to talk to him regularly (even if you stopped recently).

Friendship levels aren't visible to the player, but if you have an idea of what level you are at with each villager, there is a tool that shows you the odds each villager will ask to leave when a move out is due:

villager move out calculator

That's for the calculator link. That's really helpful. Still waiting for Phoebe to move out. Looks like I got about 33% chance for the game to pick her.

 

[Plum Pudding]

The villagers I want to move I ignore, those I speak to and gift all the time ask to move. So I'm paying more attention to those I want to move in the hops that they'll ask to move pretty soon!

 

[RoxasFan25]

As a Time Traveler it is Random when the game picks who wants to move out after 15 days. You have to make sure its on the right villager you want to move out.

 

[Cirice]

Man why is it the ones I ignore in hope that they move the ones that never asks to leave

 

[Matt0106]

What you can do is just wait for the thought bubble to appear on a villager. If it isn't Bam, don't talk to that villager while they have the bubble, and wait for the next day. That bubble will then have a chance of transferring to someone else (the only time it doesn't is when K.K. is there or there's an event going on). I'm assuming friendship places a role in who will get the bubble the most?

 

[bam94-]

The villagers I want to move I ignore, those I speak to and gift all the time ask to move. So I'm paying more attention to those I want to move in the hops that they'll ask to move pretty soon!

Same here! I was thinking of doing that too!

As a Time Traveler it is Random when the game picks who wants to move out after 15 days. You have to make sure its on the right villager you want to move out.

Ahh I see. I don’t TT, is it 15 days between one villager asking to move out and then a different villager asking?

 

[RoxasFan25]

Same here! I was thinking of doing that too!

Ahh I see. I don’t TT, is it 15 days between one villager asking to move out and then a different villager asking?

Well the way that it works is that depending what friendship you have with your villager they will have a chance of getting the move out thought bubble. If you have a lower friendship with your villager there is a higher chance that they will be the ones to move out. If you tell them not to move out it takes 5 days until the thought bubble appears again on a different villager. Also the 15 days do get restarted once a new villager moves in.