How does moving out/the villager cycle work again?

[Misha]

So, I took a loooooooong break from ACNH.

Now, with the new villagers I'm thinking about going on some nookmile hunts and swapping out some old friends. But I can't remember how it all works in this game, and somehow can't find a good guide? I especially remember a thing about the last villager who moved in not being able to move out or something? IDK, there was something about it I believe. I also miiiiight start a new island, so a guide on how the cycle of the first villagers works would also be nice, as I have forgotten all of that as well.

 

[Calysis]

I think this thread might have most of the information you're looking for:
Friendship Affects Move Outs! (Villager Move Out Datamine and Calculator)

Taken from the thread:

For Thought-Bubble Move outs:
+- You must have at least 6 villagers for one to ask to move
+- Nobody will ask to move out 5 days after you've told someone "no"
+- After someone has moved out, there's a 15-day cooldown where nobody can ask
+- Villagers are excluded from asking if:
‣ their birthday is in the next 7 days;
‣ their house is being moved;
‣ they were picked the most recent time and told to stay; or
‣ they were the most recent villager to move in* (anecdotal evidence of this one being false, or possibly bugged)

+ more regarding friendship affecting villager move out chance in the thread as well.

 

[skarmoury]

This is the source I use! Hope it helps! <3

Ultimate Move-Out Handbook

yuexr.github.io

 

[Rosch]

For a comprehensive guide on all things related to moving out villagers, check this guide:

Ultimate Move-Out Handbook

yuexr.github.io

EDIT: Ninja'd

 

[Misha]

Ah, thank you all <3