Alolan_Apples
“Assorted” Collector
I paid attention to the election predictions over the last six months. Previously, I predicted that Republicans would take back the House while keeping the Senate and White House. But now, I’m not so sure.
It’s no surprise that the Democrats impeached Trump. This time, it was more about the Ukraine thing than about the Russian interference of the 2016 Election or his offensive remarks. Even so, we knew that they would impeach him since the 2018 Election. In my personal opinion, I felt that Obama did several things worse than what Trump was getting in trouble for (including sending the DOJ to investigate Ferguson), but at least the Republicans were smart enough to not impeach him since that would damage their ratings like it did in 1998 to 2000. But the Democrats, they don’t care. And the impeachment is more about playing politics than punishing him for high crimes. Even Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez admitted that.
And surprise, their approval ratings have dropped! I predict that they will lose seats. However, that doesn’t mean they will lose control of the House. They may not even have a paper-thin majority. But they are going to lose seats. Lose 19 of them, they are in trouble. However, this may not be the case this year. One of the reasons being is gerrymandering. The state courts in Virginia and North Carolina forced the states to re-draw electoral districts to prevent disproportionately hurting minorities. Based on how they’re drawn, Democrats may win more seats in North Carolina and Virginia. Not only that, but California, a state that is continuing to go leftward despite how much control they have of the state, may eventually have no district won by Republicans, state or federal. While most states would cave in to federal government bullying, the state of California will continue being defiant in their radical progressivism. Lastly, more Republican representatives (including the ones from Texas) have retired. When a representative retires, there’s a good chance that their seat will flip.
The Senate may still go another tern under Republican control. As you know, the Class 2 Senators primarily come from southern states, which are very likely to vote Republican. However, the whole reason why Republicans made big gains in the Senate in 2014 was because of low voter turnout while conservative voters took the election more seriously. But this year, it’s possible that the Senate would go down to 50/50. I know for a fact that Alabama could flip Republican while Maine would flip Democrat. North Carolina, Colorado, and Arizona’s special election, are up for grabs. If the parties can’t flip safe seats or likely seats, Republicans may get control of the Senate 55-45 at best while the Democrats may get control of the Senate 52-48 at best.
Finally, going to the President, I have a feeling that Donald Trump is going to win re-election. He is very unpopular, but so are the 2020 Democrats. But the fate of the election goes to suburbs, more particularly white suburban women. The suburbs were the reason why Republicans lost the 2018 Midterm Elections and the 2019 Elections in Kentucky and Virginia, while they have been a voting bloc for the Republicans. White suburban women could swing either way next election. Would it be because of womens’ issues, or racial issues?
And that’s not all. As I went through our history of World Series winners, I noticed an interesting pattern. Since 1993, if a National League team won the World Series in an odd-numbered year, it would be good luck for the incumbent party. But if an American League won the World Series in an odd-numbered year, it would be good luck for the challenging party.
In 1993, 2005, 2009, and 2013, an American League team won the World Series. In 1994, 2006, 2010, and 2014, the party in power lost seats in both chambers. In 1997 and 2001, a National League team won the World Series. In 1998 and 2002, the party in power gained seats in both chambers. 2018 was an unusual exception, as the Republicans (the incumbent party) gained seats in the Senate while the Democrats (the challenging party) gained seats in the House. The coincidence, an American League team won the World Series in 2017, and they were a National League team not too long ago.
In the other odd years, if a National League team won the World Series, the incumbent party wins the next presidential election. If an American League team won the World Series, the challenging party wins the next presidential election. In 1999, 2007, and 2015, an American League team won the World Series. In 2000, 2008, and 2016, the party in power lost the presidential election. In 1995, 2003, and 2011, a National League team won the World Series. In 1996, 2004, and 2012, the party in power won the presidential election. Since the Washington Nationals, a National League team, won the World Series in 2019, that might be a cue telling us that Donald Trump will win re-election.
It’s no surprise that the Democrats impeached Trump. This time, it was more about the Ukraine thing than about the Russian interference of the 2016 Election or his offensive remarks. Even so, we knew that they would impeach him since the 2018 Election. In my personal opinion, I felt that Obama did several things worse than what Trump was getting in trouble for (including sending the DOJ to investigate Ferguson), but at least the Republicans were smart enough to not impeach him since that would damage their ratings like it did in 1998 to 2000. But the Democrats, they don’t care. And the impeachment is more about playing politics than punishing him for high crimes. Even Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez admitted that.
And surprise, their approval ratings have dropped! I predict that they will lose seats. However, that doesn’t mean they will lose control of the House. They may not even have a paper-thin majority. But they are going to lose seats. Lose 19 of them, they are in trouble. However, this may not be the case this year. One of the reasons being is gerrymandering. The state courts in Virginia and North Carolina forced the states to re-draw electoral districts to prevent disproportionately hurting minorities. Based on how they’re drawn, Democrats may win more seats in North Carolina and Virginia. Not only that, but California, a state that is continuing to go leftward despite how much control they have of the state, may eventually have no district won by Republicans, state or federal. While most states would cave in to federal government bullying, the state of California will continue being defiant in their radical progressivism. Lastly, more Republican representatives (including the ones from Texas) have retired. When a representative retires, there’s a good chance that their seat will flip.
The Senate may still go another tern under Republican control. As you know, the Class 2 Senators primarily come from southern states, which are very likely to vote Republican. However, the whole reason why Republicans made big gains in the Senate in 2014 was because of low voter turnout while conservative voters took the election more seriously. But this year, it’s possible that the Senate would go down to 50/50. I know for a fact that Alabama could flip Republican while Maine would flip Democrat. North Carolina, Colorado, and Arizona’s special election, are up for grabs. If the parties can’t flip safe seats or likely seats, Republicans may get control of the Senate 55-45 at best while the Democrats may get control of the Senate 52-48 at best.
Finally, going to the President, I have a feeling that Donald Trump is going to win re-election. He is very unpopular, but so are the 2020 Democrats. But the fate of the election goes to suburbs, more particularly white suburban women. The suburbs were the reason why Republicans lost the 2018 Midterm Elections and the 2019 Elections in Kentucky and Virginia, while they have been a voting bloc for the Republicans. White suburban women could swing either way next election. Would it be because of womens’ issues, or racial issues?
And that’s not all. As I went through our history of World Series winners, I noticed an interesting pattern. Since 1993, if a National League team won the World Series in an odd-numbered year, it would be good luck for the incumbent party. But if an American League won the World Series in an odd-numbered year, it would be good luck for the challenging party.
In 1993, 2005, 2009, and 2013, an American League team won the World Series. In 1994, 2006, 2010, and 2014, the party in power lost seats in both chambers. In 1997 and 2001, a National League team won the World Series. In 1998 and 2002, the party in power gained seats in both chambers. 2018 was an unusual exception, as the Republicans (the incumbent party) gained seats in the Senate while the Democrats (the challenging party) gained seats in the House. The coincidence, an American League team won the World Series in 2017, and they were a National League team not too long ago.
In the other odd years, if a National League team won the World Series, the incumbent party wins the next presidential election. If an American League team won the World Series, the challenging party wins the next presidential election. In 1999, 2007, and 2015, an American League team won the World Series. In 2000, 2008, and 2016, the party in power lost the presidential election. In 1995, 2003, and 2011, a National League team won the World Series. In 1996, 2004, and 2012, the party in power won the presidential election. Since the Washington Nationals, a National League team, won the World Series in 2019, that might be a cue telling us that Donald Trump will win re-election.
