(I copy-pasted this from a previous reply I made to another thread. I thought it might be notable enough for its own thread.)
edit: I realized my math was wrong --- it's not 920 tickets. It's 1820 tickets for a 99% chance.
I did some rough maths (I may be fairly wrong) and it's estimated that you need to spend around 270 tickets to even get 50% chance of getting that one villager you like; around 550 tickets to get 75% chances; 1820 tickets for 99% chance. That's not taking into account that sometimes mystery island campers are based on specific personalities that your island is lacking.
Maths:
Assuming there are 402 adoptable villagers, the probability of getting the one you want, in one try, is 0.25%. Now that means for a given visit, 99.75% of the time, you will not get your villager.
For two visits, the probability of not getting your villager is 99.75% raised to the 2nd power (99.75% times 99.75%). Now do that for 100, 200, 300++++ visits (e.g. 99.75% times 99.7% three hundred times). Those are the probabilities that you won't get that villager for that many visits. If you subtract this from 1, this equals the probability that you will get the villager you want. From there, it's a matter of trial and error to see where the percentages lie.
edit: I realized my math was wrong --- it's not 920 tickets. It's 1820 tickets for a 99% chance.
I did some rough maths (I may be fairly wrong) and it's estimated that you need to spend around 270 tickets to even get 50% chance of getting that one villager you like; around 550 tickets to get 75% chances; 1820 tickets for 99% chance. That's not taking into account that sometimes mystery island campers are based on specific personalities that your island is lacking.
Maths:
Assuming there are 402 adoptable villagers, the probability of getting the one you want, in one try, is 0.25%. Now that means for a given visit, 99.75% of the time, you will not get your villager.
For two visits, the probability of not getting your villager is 99.75% raised to the 2nd power (99.75% times 99.75%). Now do that for 100, 200, 300++++ visits (e.g. 99.75% times 99.7% three hundred times). Those are the probabilities that you won't get that villager for that many visits. If you subtract this from 1, this equals the probability that you will get the villager you want. From there, it's a matter of trial and error to see where the percentages lie.
