Mafia Caxnival Mafia: Game Thread - End Game

[Locket]

@evan why do you think I'm scum?

 

[Kirbystarship]

I want a Bianca lynch today. With all the ... and ! in her posts should tell you that she is scum.

 

[toadsworthy]

I want a Bianca lynch today. With all the ... and ! in her posts should tell you that she is scum.

like this isn't proper reasoning

 

[amazonevan19]

locket's been ultra coasty and flying under the radar, and I feel it's awfully convenient she's decided to show up now and is trying to ask questions to look town. Probably coached to do so tbh. I don't see a solid reason to vote for Dolby yet, and I don't want to lynch in the vigs right now as I'm wary of balance arguments. I could be persuaded on that front though, since it is fishy having three vigs in a single game...

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also lol kirby, you're not getting anywhere with sussing over punctuation

 

[toadsworthy]

locket's been ultra coasty and flying under the radar, and I feel it's awfully convenient she's decided to show up now and is trying to ask questions to look town. Probably coached to do so tbh. I don't see a solid reason to vote for Dolby yet, and I don't want to lynch in the vigs right now as I'm wary of balance arguments. I could be persuaded on that front though, since it is fishy having three vigs in a single game...

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also lol kirby, you're not getting anywhere with sussing over punctuation

oh you are probably scum too... did i roleblock you at all last night?

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god there are a million reasons for dolby lynch to be profitable... whoever is town, vote for him for the love of everything

 

[Kit]

I don't know what scum dolby would have to gain by townlocking me.
Maybe early on if Dolby went down it would make me look suspicious or something but
I'm an easy lynch target, and it would be pointless to still be townreading me at this point.
I think we should lynch Trundle because trundle is scum.

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If there's 4 scum left, town is screwed.
If there's 3 left.. maybe?
If we don't hit scum today, it is game over.

 

[toadsworthy]

I don't know what scum dolby would have to gain by townlocking me.
Maybe early on if Dolby went down it would make me look suspicious or something but
I'm an easy lynch target, and it would be pointless to still be townreading me at this point.
I think we should lynch Trundle because trundle is scum.

ever think he is town reading you because he knows your not scum..... granted have you even read this game at all?

 

[Kit]

We have to be right. We can't risk just another lynch for "information" at this point.

 

[toadsworthy]

We have to be right. We can't risk just another lynch for "information" at this point.

I'm not, I'm certain dolby is scum

 

[Kit]

ever think he is town reading you because he knows your not scum..... granted have you even read this game at all?

Scum dolby doesn't do things like that without a good reason for it.
I don't know. I really feel like you're going the wrong way

 

[amazonevan19]

What kind of question is that? You know whether you roleblocked me or not. Plus I'm a townie so I don't do anything at night.

Furthermore, you haven't said why my sus of locket made me scum, or why dolby is scum. You just keep repeating it again and again and never explain why we should vote Dolby. You just expect us to follow your lead after you've killed how many townies? (Yeah I was in on the panda thing too so fingers pointing back at me, but you get the point.) If you don't explain why I should vote for Dolby, how do you expect me to go along with it? I'm not gonna fearvote him just because scum dolby is dangerous.

 

[Kit]

I swear to god if dolby ends up being scum after all of this idk what i'm gonna do man
But i rlllllllly think we should lynch trundle instead

 

[toadsworthy]

What kind of question is that? You know whether you roleblocked me or not. Plus I'm a townie so I don't do anything at night.

Furthermore, you haven't said why my sus of locket made me scum, or why dolby is scum. You just keep repeating it again and again and never explain why we should vote Dolby. You just expect us to follow your lead after you've killed how many townies? (Yeah I was in on the panda thing too so fingers pointing back at me, but you get the point.) If you don't explain why I should vote for Dolby, how do you expect me to go along with it? I'm not gonna fearvote him just because scum dolby is dangerous.

I
HAVE
EXPLAINED
IT

Dolby is extremely smart player. Late in the game he is knowledgable about every aspect of the game. And he is not doing that this time, his posts lack any enthusiasm or insight about anything this whole game.

Steven Universe 2.0

The reason that I wanted Kirby to block Curry was bc if he was scum and the kills were blocked, I would see Panda visit. If either of them are scum, than Silver sent the kills in

No, Silver could easily have been the one to send the kills in, so it doesn't clear Uttu. The logical thing for maf to do is have Panda send in the kills since she couldn't be blocked last night

Hey, just gonna say that I'm gonna be gone for the first half of day tomorrow. Currently, I believe that the scum team is likely Panda, Curry, and Toads. The new sus on Toads is primarily for what he said in #1344, but I am far more certain in the first two, especially for Panda in trying to get Uttumori lynched(who isn't confirmed town, but said push went against all the mechanics of the situation)

Is this the same dolby that we have in our game right now?

Bunker Hill

Alright, I'm home, and I'm just going to say that there's more than a few incriminating things about waffles

1. Literally says that Kirby can't be scum
2. Turns around on that and implies that Kirby is most likely scum
3. Dodges around the question and literally refuses to directly answer who he thinks is scum, and refuses to vote in addition to this.

Would like to point out, that unlike waffles who was merely sus of Kirby, Chick was strongly townleaning Bianca

Though I wouldn't put it past Toads to frame a noob with a Dan kill when he knows he's expected to die

Bianca/Dan makes more sense to me as things are than Toads/Kirby or Waffles/Kirby. Chick, imo, is pretty much clear. Thinking I'll stick with Bianca for now

Mystic Messenger

Ok, I don't believe that there are two NBs. If there are, I swear to god we need normal setups.

Same. This is why I'm a good bluesniper and not good town
Regardless, Ness should have claimed when he said he was going out, and that's what I think town Ness would do

I don't view it like that. I'd wait for a hard claim. Besides, that'd be implying his role gave him evidence Evan was scum

He comments so much on game set-up, claims, organizing people when people have outted claims, in depth questioning of others. Does any of these above posts sound like the Dolby we have had in this game? Ok, I understand being busy, and less activity, but gdi its such a drastic change I can't help but notice it and it oozes from all his posts especially right now. I have been on the receiving end of Town dolby in Steven Universe, and it was extremely hard because he does such a great job of coordinating things to get what he wants. As a town member now, I obviously look for his wisdom in something like this, and I'm not getting it. I'm not getting an ounce of it. Hence why I am so adamant and sure that he is scum

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I would've expected him to have some sort of analysis of the weird Twins' role, his take on the three vigilantes and which is most likely scum, been more involved in the planning of last night's actions. But its not there, he doesn't want get too involved in the matter because he knows which one of them is scum. I bet the scum chat is filled with all the analysis and strategy that he is withholding from here.

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he is probably just going to try and say that in each one of the games above it was a different situation and not applicable, but like what other games can i take from like he is asking of me...?

 

[Dolby]

Toads, I really don't get where you aren't seeing me not getting involved in claims and organization. Definetely haven't been questioning people as much. As for determining which of them as scum, do you remember my post on what would happen if we NLed? That was my method of determining, because we do have a greater chance of winning, under the assumption that there are 3 mafia when we NL today. Twins were irrelevant honestly, Jacob died before I had a proper chance to analyze who was what due to Tina extending twilight, and reading his description showed that his shot wouldn't go through.

Anyway, these are some of my quotes from this game, mainly as a counterpoint to setup analysis and claims. I probably didn't do enough with the vote thief claim, but the best thing that could be done with it would be to steal the vote from Vanessa or Bianca. And again, I haven't been going as in-depth questioning people

Hey, just woke up and want to remind you that Kit was 99% Heyden?s cop inspect

Also, assuming maf has a role blocker, they could easily stop Bianca from killing maf or allow her to kill town with her shot.

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Oh god no, that is even worse than announcing to the thread you?ll shoot Locket

Yeah, Cleb's 100% clear from being maf and the only way that he could.be bad is if he's SK who shot Farobi N1 (again Dad/Farobi aren't compatible maf kills)

Walking rn on data

Ok so: Kit, Cleb, Vanessa clear

Honestly, Is rather not lynch Bianca or Locket as we really don't get any information from either of their deaths. I'd much rather stick with Toads, Panda, and Trundle

@Trundle, is there really any reason to not believe Vanessa's claim? 14v5v1 is completely unreasonable, and Vanessa's claim explains the kill drop. Only reasonable explanation for her lying is if she's SK, and if she is, she's basically killed herself because she's going have to kill someone at some point in the game

Ok yeah. Did a full analysis and he probably ended up inspecting Kit. Cleb is pretty confirmed through being hit, he townread Ness from D1, and f11 is dead. Only other person who had gained ground was Jacob, but to a far lesser degree than Kit. So yeah, Heyden probably had inspected Kit and got town N1 is what I'm thinking.

Ok honestly, this is to quiet, almost suspiciously so. We have a three way and no discussion is happening

Kirby, knowing that Bianca lynch prob isn't going to happen, who's your next best option. Same goes for Bianca and Panda on Vanessa, which I guess is possible but is honestly unlikely

 

[toadsworthy]

None of those quotes have anything to do with finding scum... or nailing down who to lynch or showing you have any opinion to lynch. Instead you were clearing people, or saying who isn't mafia, not the same and not what I expect from town dolby

 

[Dolby]

None of those quotes have anything to do with finding scum... or nailing down who to lynch or showing you have any opinion to lynch. Instead you were clearing people, or saying who isn't mafia, not the same and not what I expect from town dolby

Yes, I have sussed people, I have scumhunted. I have not done so to the degree that I should. It's cherry-picking, but here

Panda, vote switching yesterday into pretty much everybody but oath (she was on the Vanessa wagon and voted for me last minute), then following up the next day, after I said that you were 99% Heyden?s N1 inspection, by first slinging mud at you, then going after Bianca, and then going after me. All theee of these with no content and no substance

Spoiler: reads

Heyden-Pretty much led the last lynch singlehandly, I see him as nothing but town. Townlock

Jacob-I've wrote about him before, and he's done little since then. But I find him a good scumteam fit with oath

Ness-I honestly would have him scumleaned if it wasn't for his behavior during the lynch, which I honestly find pretty town. Yes, he was gunning for me, but besides that, he had one right reaction which I felt was pretty town.



He was the first person to point out how BS the prospect of a Vanessa lynch was (tbh, I do think it was orachstrated last minute by the mafia team). The wagon itself, and the people on it, didn't and continue to not sit well with me

Toads-The reasoning behind this should be obvious, pretty much all of yesterday. I'm honestly kind of torn on if I think that Toads would be this obvious, but he was DEPARATELY trying to get the lynch off of oath. To the point of which he was actively defending oath's fake claim. The only thing that keeps me from a true red read is that he wasn't on Vanessa, but me and her were tied in the votes at that point, so it wouldn't make much of a difference.



Him going after me felt fake as well, he wasn't even talking about me and hadn't even mentioned me for something like 3 hours. Also, if Toads did make a full post about me and detailing his sus, he's going to have to direct me to it because I've read through his filter and the nearest I could find was him saying that I "felt off" and his null read on me

Vanessa-I had her down earlier as a potential scum partner of oath due to the connection between them. But I think the wagon at the end of day was pure BS and I think that it was a last ditch attempt to create a mislynch. Townlean overall

XCleb-If he isn't town he's third party, plain and simple. No mafia says that they "took a hit" in a game this size unless they actually did (I don't think that Dad and Farobi both were maf kills).

Kermit-This purely comes from Tae's play, which I thought was pretty town

Locket-I still have pretty much nothing from them to indicate that they're town or maf, I listed them as sus earlier, but I really don't have all that much to say to either side.

PandaDarling-Honestly, all that vote switching in the last 15 minutes felt desparate. As I said before in this post, the Trundle/Oath/Panda (all of whom at the start of day I wanted to be lynched) wagon onto Vanessa felt fake as all hell. But the vote switch from me to vanessa to oath, and finally me at the end felt like something that you'd say in a play about the five stages of death.

Kirby-Him/Heyden/Oath is amusingly similar to Kirby/Heyden/Evan D2 last game. He put the majority on oath when it could have easily been swung to Vanessa or myself, I don't see him doing that as mafia

I have to go now, I'll address the other five later, but tldr, null-scum Evan, Kit and f11 town, scum Trundle, and null-scum Bianca

Yes, I know that you didn't agree with an oath or Sensei lynch at the time, more so with the oath. Frankly, I don't think I should have to know your personal schedule, but all I know is that you had been stating suspicion against Heyden since roughly 2.5 hours before the lynch. This really doesn't prove something either way but it's distracting from the fact that you dropped the ball here.

The fact that you felt the need to point it out as relevant in any way means that you at least thought something about it. I also feel like your emotional response is worth noting

Spoiler: more reads

Ok, I was intending to do this yesterday, but the thread being locked for I don't know how many hours kinda left me stranded

Jacob
Note beforehand, I left out fluff and jokes

Actually, looking at this quote again in context, it seems relatively fine, main reason I flagged it in the first place was because it seemed to be parroting what others said, though the thought on Toads actually does seem genuine. My issue is that 4/5 people beforehand had expressed townreads on the 3


This post I do have problems with, particularly in the second paragraph. The fact that he doesn't take a stance on either Oath or f11 is a problem fmpov, and gives reasons to town and maf read him. The last sentence of the paragraph is particularly bad as I really don't see why there is any benefit to describing what would make you townread someone as town. This is his last post before his dissappear, so that's why there's a sudden time shift after this.

This I feel is definetely interesting. Agrees with Evan's logic (also, I'm dropping Evan to null, the main reason I TRed him was because I saw Farobi as pocketing him). He then continues with "did he slip? IDK!" where Panda points out something that she viewed as a slip. The fact that Jacob refused to really go into depth on this bugs me, but not so much his reaction to Evan's guide to reading him.
1. He implies that he thinks that Evan is town by omitting a read on him while scumreading Panda(who was against him)
2. This is more a post about Evan, and there's really nothing about Panda, what happened to the logic on her?
3. The fact that he doesn't take a stance on Evan bothers me as well



His next three posts are in response to susses on him. Reasonable, mainly included for the sake of completion. Don't find his reaction to the deaths alignment-indicative

The main problem is that this is a large post but there is literally no valid logic. I suppose you could extend Heyden's godfather thing, but he really only prominently featured it in the one game I was scum with him. The rest of this is entirely fluff, which I feel is pretty unlike town-Jacob


This is decent, don't really have any problems with this, included for the sake of completion

Overall, scumlean. I'm kinda worried that I'm going after somebody who justs does better in the late game here, but overall I don't feel like many of his posts make sense from a town standpoint, particularly his one on Panda/Evan or accusation of myself and Heyden

Ness
Now, honestly I'm probably not going to do what I did for Jacob for the rest of these, as they've posted to much and Jacob's only made about 20 posts so far.


The fact that Ness tries to construe this as a slip instantly raises red flags, and really I shouldn't need to explain why. Him backing away from it doesn't help his case either.

But I've already explained a lot of this before, his case on Heyden seemed designed to be to little to late and was almost something like what I did in Smash with Zendal/Endless. Nor does his lack of elaboration on the possibility of a "Dad/Heyden team with a Toads or Vanessa lackey".

Oath
To scumread him would be beating a dead horse honestly.

Panda
Has done nothing pretty much.

Locket


Included for the sake of referance




This is definetely the weakest of my reads. The only thing that makes me suspect her is that she reacts to Bianca's disappearance and not any of the others (ness, Jacob) after Bianca is being substantially sussed. It seems very bandwagony, and the fact that it's right after the discussion on Oath has died down makes me think that a Locket/Oath team is possible here.

Trundle
Trundle is weird to say the least



Great contribution! 10/10!

I agree with you on the fact that all this distraction is not helping town at all, however not sure why you're so fixated on bianca over the others. Ness, Sensai, and toadsworthy and **** posting to their limits.

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Because he asked for my thoughts and I provided them.



I didn't give anything day one that game.



why are you full reads listing so early in?

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Fails to take his stated previous stance on Ness, inconsistant.


If oath flips maf and we lynch him today, I'm gonna say it'll reflect positively on Trundle. But while he's acting high and might what town v town are we looking at here? Obviously, Trundle most know that there was town v town going on, outside of Evan and Cleb, why doesn't he just tell us? Also, why does he even mention Evan and Cleb when he could give reads on who he thought was obvious town.


This is maybe three posts after Trundle says that Cleb plays very similar as either alignment, and the fact that he's meta-analyzing Cleb N1 after that post is suspect. He goes back on his "strong scum" read on oath, claiming that "the cases on oath so far are weak at best". This reads of opportunistic maf, willing to throw aside their reads just to throw shade on somebody. Moreover, this is entirely inconsistant with his early game behavior. Oath was his strongest scumread, and he didn't dare to call out Cleb on his meta. This post is probably the biggest reason why I'm putting Trundle down here, and why I dropped him.

And now we have this. Oath, his scumread, was being sussed for this reason. Trundle, were you bodysnatched?

I would also like to point out that I dropped Kit from here, this is because I felt that she was providing good content this past hour, and I agreed with pretty much all of it. The reason that I haven't expanded more on Panda and Ness is because I've done it before. Oath is because I noticed that he wanted to policy before and I have a policy of policying policiers. Honestly, I want to lynch Trundle most today, but I have no objections to anybody on this list.

Also strayed away from Bianca and Kirby conflict because it's ongoing and I'm lazy

Ness
His vote and opinion changes I find to be present no matter his alignment D1, however, his case on Heyden and switch off of Sensei sent off red flags. Now, his logic in voting Sensei did make sense from a town perspective, essentially being null on her, but of the bandwagons, being the least certain about. But his case on Heyden honestly reeked of ingenuine, being delayed to the point of uselessness due to the timing of it(he had been lurking in the thread for a good hour and a half at this time). His reaction to the lynch reminds me of how I played in Smash, delibrately rushing in to defend the accused in the last hour, when it was to late to do anything about it. His reaction to f11's "excuse" also seemed like trying to misconstrue her behavior as a slip and his reaction "low hanging fruit" feels really poor from a tone perspective. If scum, it's likely that none of the lynch targets from yesterday are scum with him (with the exception of maybe oath). Also, a couple of things that he said to Farobi seemed like artificial distancing. I don't view Panda/Ness as a particularly strong possibility though, as I don't think that he'd stick out his neck that far.

Also, when reading through the Ness/Tae/Farobi thing in the beginning, my initial reaction was that Ness and Tae were likely town and Farobi mafia.

Kit
Kit's the read that is the most gut out of all of these. My most solid reasoning is that she seems less laid back in comparison to the last few games. This may be because of her absence, but this just seems like she's more afraid to talk kinda? The thing that bothers me most is her reaction to Farobi's reads where she points at Farobi, but doesn't take a stance on him.

Farobi
Initial Ness/Tae/Farobi thing I felt looked bad for him, as did his first vote on f11. He opens his reasoning post asking how f11 played, then holding the NL against her, but not the PL against oath (btw, I see oath/Farobi as 100% feasible). And using her answering the RQS as logic. Also his f11/heyden/dad train tomorrow comment is pretty weird, considering that it came before the lynch happened and there was no clear consensus (at this point, I think that it was thought that Sensei/oath would be the lynch). But it sounds weird for town to say, just like him wanting Dad and Heyden to die, but townleaning them.

His reads also seem like a carbon copy of Evan's, having literally one difference in scum reads and extremely similar townreads. Honestly, it would be very convienient for Farobi to be scum, because I think that he's been overall the most transparent.

Panda
I've already touched on this, but defending herself with her own meta and only going after noobs are big red flags. The re's probably less content from her than from Kit, I think the most that she's discussed is the motivations behind making a tag, and I'd expect more from her honestly.

I'll touch on Jacob later

Actually, gonna move Panda to my sussed. Going after the noobs (Luniel/Kirby and Vanessa) doesn't look well for her. Also, her vote switch into Evan felt off as well.

****, I may not be able to get anything substantial out this phase

 

[toadsworthy]

I also took the time and read through smash mafia, and you get a touch more defensive and little more ATE which is usually none for you. Looking at smash vs this game, it seems like the same dolby except less effort which you've admitted to is the case for this game

 

[amazonevan19]

I...am really not sure what to think.

Toads' point makes sense, and the fact he took the time to go and grab a bunch of old quotes from prior games is a plus. Dolby's responses are basically "yeah I'm not as Dolby as I usually am, but hey I have tried to scumhunt! Look at these quotes!"

It seems both are cherrypicking but yeah, dolby's tone does seem a bit different this game. Hard to put a finger on it but it is noticeable. Does that mean he's scum? I am not sure, and I'm inclined to think not.

The central question is, is Toads v. Dolby town v. town or town v. scum? Cuz I'm pretty sure it can't be scum v. scum, and I think it's most likely to be town v. town since both Toads and dolby are doing due diligence. Quite frankly, I wouldn't expect scum toads to put in this much effort to kill so many townies, and then risk another mislynch with Dolby.

 

[toadsworthy]

With the amount of modkills and bad decision making, which is on my part too, town doesn't really deserve to win this game at this point. But hey, if we're still alive we need to keep trying

 

[toadsworthy]

The fact tht so many people are opposed to this Dolby lynch makes me more certain that he is scum tbh