- killing catharina will confirm she is town which is already known but may not stop any investigations since people may have moved their target
- killing antonio will potentially stop investigations (cath or myself) and will confirm that volt and guava are normal and naive rather than one of them possibly being inverse (potentially dangerous considering one of them may move to me after the announcement)
- killing guava may stop an investigation if volt or antonio decides to shift there after the announcement, but will give them info they really didn't have to work for (unlike catharina)
- killing volt will confirm that catharina and antonio are both inverse and paranoid rather than one of them possibly being normal
assuming antonio is mafia
catharina must be paranoid (inspect antonio - get town - true)
misty must be normal (inspect antonio - get mafia - true)
volt is inverse/naive (inspect catharina - get town - must be naive)
guava is inverse/naive (inspect volt - get town - must also be naive)
assuming volt is mafia
antonio is paranoid/normal (inspect catharina - get mafia - must be paranoid)
catharina is normal/paranoid (inspect antonio - get mafia - must also be paranoid)
misty must be inverse (inspect antonio - get mafia - true)
making guava naive (inspect volt - get town - true)
assuming guava is mafia
antonio is paranoid/inverse (inspect catharina - get mafia - true)
misty is normal/naive (inspect antonio - get town - true)
volt is normal/naive (inspect catharina - get town - true)
catharina is inverse/paranoid (inspect antonio - get mafia - true)
assuming misty is mafia
antonio is inverse/paranoid (inspect catharina - get mafia - true)
volt is normal/naive (inspect catharina - get town - true)
guava is normal/naive (inspect volt - get town - true)
catharina is inverse/paranoid (inspect antonio - get mafia - true)
framing antonio - almost impossible. catharina inspecting antonio will yield mafia to cement her as paranoid. guava would need to die to pigeonhole volt as being naive. in this case i need to inspect antonio and say mafia since my only option to blend in would be normal since volt is naive. but since guava would be cleared as town, volt and i would both be a little suspect in this case. could try to argue that guava was the inverse. antonio would inspect catharina (presumably) and get mafia.
why would antonio kill guava over volt, catharina or me? - could argue kept volt alive to frame them since guava was inspecting volt and could theoretically clear volt by having the votes "add up" in volt's favor. would know from my inspection that i was not the inverse. could argue it was a 50/50 shot between guava and volt for who was inverse. between catharina and guava, guava gives less info since no one inspected them either night. no answer for why i'm alive, in this case with me the theoretical normal i'd be the biggest target since i'm inspecting antonio tonight.
framing volt - almost impossible. need to inspect antonio and say mafia to cement myself as inverse. guava's inspection of volt as normal will corroborate their naive pigeonhole. one of antonio or catharina needs to die. catharina inspecting antonio will yield mafia so it's possible to pigeonhole her as paranoid. antonio inspecting catharina will also yield mafia, so he can also be pigeonholed as paranoid. need to convince others that volt is open wolfing.
why would volt kill catharina/antonio over guava, antonio or me - catharina's been cleared as town and is a town rallying point. in the volt mafia scenario, guava must be naive so their results really don't matter. no answer for why i'm alive, in this case with me the theoretical inverse i'd be the biggest target since i'm inspecting antonio tonight and would turn up mafia on him and therefore seal volt's doom.
framing guava - easiest but not easy. one of antonio or catharina still needs to die to ensure the other is seen as paranoid.
most likely scenario to make them want to wait another day to sort that out without a day kill. guava will say volt is town. volt will say catharina is town. catharina/antonio will say the other is mafia. inspecting antonio and saying town then inspecting guava and saying mafia will cement me as normal and volt as naive. whichever of catharina and antonio dies will be confirmed town.
why would guava kill catharina/antonio over antonio/catharina, volt or me - catharina's been cleared as town and is a town rallying point. antonio and catharina inspecting each other would both yield mafia. volt inspecting catharina would yield town since volt is either normal or naive. me inspecting antonio should yield town since i am either normal or naive. catharina is more valuable than antonio and volt in this case since she hasn't been inspected, and more valuable than me since i haven't been cleared.
why would guava pretend to be normal or naive by "clearing" volt? - because in the wolf!guava scenario the wolf was always between me, volt, and guava since our results were the ones that didn't add up. guava is trying to blend into that group.
next steps? - presumably group will try to split votes between me and guava. i'll be on the guava train so i say mafia when inspecting guava. then i would need to kill either volt or antonio depending on who is inspecting me and what i think those results are going to be. pray the one left alive is the naive/paranoid and their results give us nothing.
- killing sheep villager would do very little good in terms of protecting myself but it has the least bad outcomes. it looks the worst for guava.
- killing volt will make me look guilty because i am the only person volt has yet to investigate and would definitely be their target n2. if ace is mafia then volt is definitely naive so there'd be no reason for ace to kill them. really risking volt being naive for me as well.
- killing ace is killing the one person who is attached at the hip with me and would do no good
