Frightening trend

[pika62221]

With all the talk lately of the Wii U and how dismal it is, there's an even more scary trend occurring with the 3DS. Back in 2012, 2013 it was the highest selling of its life, and not really facing as still a competition from smartphones. Well, that was 3 to 4 years ago, and the years since, it hasn't looked pretty. Ignoring the launch year since those are only part years, here's how they look:

Nintendo 3DS
2012: 13.95
2013: 12.24
2014: 8.73
2015: 6.60 (expected, 5.88 last report)

For comparison, let's not use the highest selling handheld, let's use the Game Boy Advance, the lowest selling handheld system, who only had 3 years (2001-2004) before its successor came out.

Game Boy Advance
2002: 17.09
2003: 15.65
2004: 17.59
2005: 15.40
2006: 8.33
2007: 4.34
2008: 1.59


Looking at the downward trend, you can see the 3DS is around the time the GBA was in 2006/2007. That thing was discontinued shortly after. There's more too. Look at the regions buying the 3DS:
Japan: 20.97
Americas: 19.50
Other: 17.47

Now, compare it to the GBA:
Japan: 16.96
Americas: 41.64
Other: 22.91

This means the GBA will have outsold the 3DS in all the Western regions, while the Japanese 3DS has already surpassed the GBA. The Americas is more surprising. From over 40 million to less than 20 million? It'll crack 20 million, but there's no way on Earth it reaches 40 million after taking over 5 years to reach 20! Other is primarily Europe, and it's doubtful it sells another 5.5 million given it has also taken over 5 years just to reach 17.5 million. Westerners are turning away from handhelds, while Japan hasn't yet. The 3DS is also the first one to have its highest sales come from Japan, the smallest region listed. The US alone has nearly 3 times the population, while Europe combined has over 5 times. That's not good for much larger regions to have lower sales. This means the Western dedicated handheld market has massively shrunk, so if Japan follows this trend, Nintendo will be in some serious trouble, because it's dropping fast here! Just look at GBA and the 3DS who would have thought the 3DS would fail to reach the GBA? I sure didn't, not in 2012, and 2013!

 

[visibleghost]

wait why is this frightening? nintendo isnt really going to go bankrupt, but i mean i get that less sales isn't good for them but like uh. pls explain what this could lead to because im not very good at this stuff ;;

 

[DJStarstryker]

The 3DS is 5 years old now. You won't have as much hardware movement because people already have one.

3DS games are still selling quite well, I'm fairly certain. I just left Japan back in September (lived there for a few years), but people used their 3DSes all the time there.

 

[mirukushake]

Pretty much every single game company that's not making mobile games is losing sales on consoles and software. It's not really just a Nintendo thing.

 

[Reindeer]

Pretty much every single game company that's not making mobile games is losing sales on consoles and software. It's not really just a Nintendo thing.

To add to this: Industries fluctuate, as well as the sectors within them. For the past few years, the mobile games market has gained a lot of popularity while the consoles and handhelds markets have seen a decline. PC has been slowly gaining popularity along with MMOs.
I think Nintendo partially caused this growth in the mobile market as well, as the Nintendo DS is the #1 most sold handheld, so it likely familiarized a lot of people with games that used touchscreen controls.

The Nintendo 3DS is not doing bad. You're only comparing it to Nintendo's lowest-selling handheld system. The Vita is, at least somewhat, in competition with the 3DS. It has only sold an estimated 12 million units, compared to nearly 60 million 3DS units sold. These are two systems that released in the same year. The Vita sold so badly that Sony basically pulled support on it in 2013 and made it an accessory for the PS4.

Also, the GBA had a 9-year run, whereas the 3DS has been around for over 5 years now (the DS also had 9 years). The two trends given in the OP don't match up equally. 3DS sales are not being cut in half each year like the GBA sales were, they are just losing units as less people buy the system (likely because those possible customers already have one). The 3DS may yet outsell the GBA entirely in the coming years.

Next time try a less clickbaity title.

 

[oath2order]

How much did the GBA and 3DS sell for

 

[Holla]

I think we all know that we are on the verge of Nintendo's next gen gaming systems. Both the Wii U and 3DS are around that age of being discontinued. It's just a matter of time now. It may be sad but it's bound to happen eventually. It's just how the gaming industry works.

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How much did the GBA and 3DS sell for

Price?

GBA around $100 when new
3DS around $200 (depends on which model though)

 

[piichinu]

spooky

 

[Trent the Paladin]

I think we all know that we are on the verge of Nintendo's next gen gaming systems. Both the Wii U and 3DS are around that age of being discontinued. It's just a matter of time now. It may be sad but it's bound to happen eventually. It's just how the gaming industry works.

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Price?

GBA around $100 when new
3DS around $200 (depends on which model though)

Is that accounting for inflation plus the various models?

 

[AnimalCrossingPerson]

Mmm... they may need a bright idea soon.

 

[GuerreraD]

I fail to see where is the frightening ing that, but well... speaking for myself, I only used handheld N systems all my life, never any other.
Anyway, my opinion about this ranking is the GBA was unique in its time, nothing to compete with. The DS system instead is a too big family, with waaay too many "siblings". I mean standard 3ds, standard DS, DSi, DSlite, XL's, 2ds... and now the New3ds. Simply a lot of innecessary ports to fight among themselves

 

[Reindeer]

I fail to see where is the frightening ing that, but well... speaking for myself, I only used handheld N systems all my life, never any other.
Anyway, my opinion about this ranking is the GBA was unique in its time, nothing to compete with. The DS system instead is a too big family, with waaay too many "siblings". I mean standard 3ds, standard DS, DSi, DSlite, XL's, 2ds... and now the New3ds. Simply a lot of innecessary ports to fight among themselves

That trend started with the GBA (regular/SP/micro), so I don't see what your point is suppposed to be. There's no competition between these systems. The DS line has been discontinued, and all sales of DS/DS Lite/DSi/DSi XL and all sales of 3DS/3DS XL/2DS/N3DS/N3DS XL are all put under the banners of "DS" and "3DS" respectively. They don't compete with themselves.

 

[pika62221]

The 3DS is 5 years old now. You won't have as much hardware movement because people already have one.

3DS games are still selling quite well, I'm fairly certain. I just left Japan back in September (lived there for a few years), but people used their 3DSes all the time there.

That's the point, the Western markets are abandoning handhelds, Japan is the last forefront, so if they ever turn to mobile like the West has, goodbye dedicated handheld market.

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I fail to see where is the frightening ing that, but well... speaking for myself, I only used handheld N systems all my life, never any other.
Anyway, my opinion about this ranking is the GBA was unique in its time, nothing to compete with. The DS system instead is a too big family, with waaay too many "siblings". I mean standard 3ds, standard DS, DSi, DSlite, XL's, 2ds... and now the New3ds. Simply a lot of innecessary ports to fight among themselves

The West went from leading in handheld sales, to TRAILING in handheld sales. It's not about being 5 years old, it's about the fact that the US and Europe who had higher sales of a system with only 3 1/2 years on the market are TRAILING the smallest market of Japan, something that hasn't happened before. It means the West is turning to mobile and Japan is the last region, and without them, the 3DS not only wouldn't be 50 million, after 5+ years we're looking at barely 35 million, NOT a success by any means for a Nintendo handheld! Japan is the last forefront, if they turn to mobile like the West has, it's going to be VERY tough for a dedicated handheld to survive.

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How much did the GBA and 3DS sell for

Factoring in inflation and different models, same exact price.

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To add to this: Industries fluctuate, as well as the sectors within them. For the past few years, the mobile games market has gained a lot of popularity while the consoles and handhelds markets have seen a decline. PC has been slowly gaining popularity along with MMOs.
I think Nintendo partially caused this growth in the mobile market as well, as the Nintendo DS is the #1 most sold handheld, so it likely familiarized a lot of people with games that used touchscreen controls.

The Nintendo 3DS is not doing bad. You're only comparing it to Nintendo's lowest-selling handheld system. The Vita is, at least somewhat, in competition with the 3DS. It has only sold an estimated 12 million units, compared to nearly 60 million 3DS units sold. These are two systems that released in the same year. The Vita sold so badly that Sony basically pulled support on it in 2013 and made it an accessory for the PS4.

Also, the GBA had a 9-year run, whereas the 3DS has been around for over 5 years now (the DS also had 9 years). The two trends given in the OP don't match up equally. 3DS sales are not being cut in half each year like the GBA sales were, they are just losing units as less people buy the system (likely because those possible customers already have one). The 3DS may yet outsell the GBA entirely in the coming years.

Next time try a less clickbaity title.

The 3DS IS the lowest selling model! I'm comparing it to the SECOND lowest selling! Plus, it shows how JAPAN is the reason why it's so high, the SMALLEST market has the HIGHEST SALES? NEVER has that happened before! Game Boy had its lowest sales in Japan, Game Boy Advance had its lowest sales in Japan, Nintendo DS had its lowest sales in Japan, Nintendo 3DS has its HIGHEST sales in Japan? THAT means JAPAN is the reason why it's considered a success, THAT is the scary trend, the WEST has many, MANY more people than tiny Japan, Japan should NOT be leading in sales when it hasn't before!! Common sense will tell you the 3DS is NOT going to sell MORE the coming years than it has its prior 5 years, NO CHANCE this thing reaches 41 million units in the Americas! The Vita will reach 40 million before the 3DS has 40 million American units sold!

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wait why is this frightening? nintendo isnt really going to go bankrupt, but i mean i get that less sales isn't good for them but like uh. pls explain what this could lead to because im not very good at this stuff ;;

The United States has 3 times the population of Japan. Europe has 5 times the population. Japan is the smallest region by population. The Game Boy, the Game Boy Advance, and the Nintendo DS had its LOWEST sales in Japan for that reason. The 3DS however, like I showed has its HIGHEST sales in Japan, remember the smallest populated region. That means the West is turning from handhelds. The scary trend is that the larger regions are turning from it, so if/when Japan does, it's going to be a nightmare for Nintendo's handhelds going forward, because if it weren't for Japan, the 3DS wouldn't be looked at as a success, especially when the Game Boy advance, a system with only 3 1/2 years before the DS came out sells MORE than the 3DS after 5+ years? NOT GOOD!!!

 

[pika62221]

Mmm... they may need a bright idea soon.

Your graph totally represents what I'm saying. The thing that's pulling down the 3DS is the West. Japan, like I showed, is leading in sales, a first for a Nintendo handheld (Game Boy through the DS all had lower sales in Japan) it's the final forefront, so Nintendo HAS trouble brewing if Japan ever follows the West! A system with only 3 1/2 years before its successor comes out should NOT be outselling a system who has had 5 years on the market! That's why with Japan outselling the GBA, it's totally a success, but anyone who believes the 3DS will exceed 41 million units in the Americas is totally a fanboy, and too blinded by that fandom to realize this things market here is dwindling fast!

 

[Red Cat]

Even if Nintendo goes under, it won't be the end of the world. If mobile games become better than dedicated handhelds, then it's not really a bad thing that the superior product survives and the inferior product dies.

 

[Reindeer]

Even if Nintendo goes under ...

They won't, at least not for a long while. Even though Nintendo isn't doing as well as they were during the DS/Wii era, they're sitting on a ton of money from their successes over the past 3 decades. Their profits have fallen, but Nintendo does still make a profit. People also treat Nintendo as if it's the company doing the worst. The only thing keeping the Sony brand alive nowadays are its camera and gaming divisions, the company is failing on all other fronts. Microsoft is being kept alive with things like Windows and Office, whereas its gaming division is failing.
Nintendo is purely a gaming company, and still manages to bring in a profit on that alone. There would have to be a serious mismanagement of funds for Nintendo to go under this decade (or even the next).

 

[pika62221]

They won't, at least not for a long while. Even though Nintendo isn't doing as well as they were during the DS/Wii era, they're sitting on a ton of money from their successes over the past 3 decades. Their profits have fallen, but Nintendo does still make a profit. People also treat Nintendo as if it's the company doing the worst. The only thing keeping the Sony brand alive nowadays are its camera and gaming divisions, the company is failing on all other fronts. Microsoft is being kept alive with things like Windows and Office, whereas its gaming division is failing.
Nintendo is purely a gaming company, and still manages to bring in a profit on that alone. There would have to be a serious mismanagement of funds for Nintendo to go under this decade (or even the next).

Yup, they've banked quite a bit from the DS/Wii era that I'm not worried about that, but I get the feeling with the way these numbers are, and with their move to mobile recently that the rumor of a NX hybrid is starting to bear truth. If handhelds can't support themselves like they have in the past, it'd be pointless to continue pouring money into a dying industry- likely why they've now released a phone app. People act like it's a great thing, but I don't like it, because it's their admission that mobile is doing the dedicated handheld in, and I loved having a handheld solely for a handheld and a phone solely for a phone. I'm in a minority apparently...

What's more, and this probably explains why I see so many complain about StreetPass on this site, and commonly read about people going to Japan not having this same issue, and doing the math, if there's 350 million people between the United States and Canada, with just under 20 million units sold, that is just over 6% of the population, while in Japan with 120 million people and 21 million units, it's nearly 3 times that at 17%. With a higher percentage of the population owning one, and with larger metropolitan areas than America (come on metro Tokyo makes New York seem like a small town), it's no surprise tags occur more often in Japan than any region, a higher percentage owns them, and more people are crammed closer together.

Really, I don't want to see the dedicated handheld market go, I've been with it over 35 years with the original Game&Watch, but I have to admit, these numbers are not only not promising, if they continue this way, then I have to accept the fact the market just isn't going to continue to support dedicated handhelds like they have in the future, and like I said earlier, I like my phone to be a phone, and my handheld to be a handheld!

 

[GuerreraD]

I think even Japan is already falling... You can't imagine how disappointed I was when FantasyLife2 went to mobile instead 3ds

 

[Reindeer]

Really, I don't want to see the dedicated handheld market go, I've been with it over 35 years with the original Game&Watch, but I have to admit, these numbers are not only not promising, if they continue this way, then I have to accept the fact the market just isn't going to continue to support dedicated handhelds like they have in the future, and like I said earlier, I like my phone to be a phone, and my handheld to be a handheld!

Demand would have to drop much further for the console market to disappear. Like I said in my first post, the mobile market has grown which caused the entire consoles market, both home consoles and handhelds, to diminish. However, while handhelds don't have a lot of power in them compared to home consoles, they do have power compared to mobile phones, and people will still want that because the games that utilize it can't run on mobile.
Nintendo also has a lot of successful franchises, with Mario and Pokemon being the #1 and #2 best-selling video game franchises of all time. All Nintendo has to do is throw a proper Mario or Pokemon game onto their systems and they're raking in money again.

You're making a mountain out of a molehill.

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I think even Japan is already falling... You can't imagine how disappointed I was when FantasyLife2 went to mobile instead 3ds

That's Level-5 making a weird decision, not Nintendo.

 

[Holla]

Guys, it's safe to say gaming consoles as a whole (not just handhelds) are not doing as well as they used too. Hard to say if they will completely die out (I hope not as I love my handheld consoles!) But anyways a few reasons why the industry as a whole is struggling (not just Nintendo) are as follows:

- Price. Gaming consoles and games aren't cheap and they only keep going up
- Mobile/Computer gaming most people own a Phone and/or computer already and you can game on both of those so why waste money on a system solely for gaming?
- The digital age be it roms on emulators or digitally downloaded games which are becoming more common and beginning to faze out game carts and discs.
- General lost interest. As people get older many lose interest in games they once loved (not all do but most tend to) and in response the newer generations just aren't jumping on console gaming like we once did.

It's a sad truth but it is what it is. I think console gaming will continue on for a bit longer but I have a feeling t won't last forever. Regardless I still love console gaming and will continue to be part of the fanbase even long after it dies out.