Mafia Generic Mafia (Endgame - Dormant Serial Killer Wins)

[amazonevan19]

Awaiting a potential dolby switch to me, if he does he's confirmed scum because his """survivor""" gambit would be completely out the window and exposed for the farce it (possibly) is. Survivor dolby has no reason to switch, but scum dolby has every reason to. So you thought HE had me locked into voting...nah fam, I got HIM locked into voting Nightmares.

 

[Nightmares]

I'm not seeing the me or Dolby scum at all

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Awaiting a potential dolby switch to me, if he does he's confirmed scum because his """survivor""" gambit would be completely out the window and exposed for the farce it (possibly) is. Survivor dolby has no reason to switch, but scum dolby has every reason to. So you thought HE had me locked into voting...nah fam, I got HIM locked into voting Nightmares.

how about you both unvote me isnt that a great idea

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Honestly, if Dolby switches to you, he's more town than scum

 

[amazonevan19]

Please don't do this

Look, Evan, who do you think can possibly be my teammate first of all. I'm going to try to prove that lynching me, assuming that I was scum, tomorrow wouldn't be different or even better mathematically than lynching me as theoritical scum today.

Also, no way my death as surv would confirm it's Nightmares/Chele. You are Bianca are still both potential scum

Nobody's switching any votes right now. This could totally backfire on me as most people are sitting on their votes rn.

Chele is a fairly likely scummate for you, as I've said before. Go ahead and do the maths and maybe that'll convince me, but rn the 5v2 ---> 5v1 and 4v2v1 ---> 4v2 arguments are looking pretty damn good to me rn. Risk/reward ratio boi

 

[Nightmares]

idrk what to say but dolby pl0x

 

[amazonevan19]

Honestly, if Dolby switches to you, he's more town than scum

the surv claim...would be TOWN...if he voted me?

do you realize what you just said

physically laughing out loud right now

hint: surv claims can only be TP or scum, there's no way they're town

 

[Nightmares]

the surv claim...would be TOWN...if he voted me?

do you realize what you just said

physically laughing out loud right now

hint: surv claims can only be TP or scum, there's no way they're town

nO gdi I meant "town" as in, acting town, he's more town. Not he IS town. I just mean he's on our side (not urs, ur scum)

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not really laugh out loud worthy but ok then

 

[Dolby]

Actually, let's start with the harsher assumption that I'm scum, Nightmares is town, and we mislynch her today.

My possible teammates are I'd say that my only teammates would be Chele and Vanessa. Toads is town, Evan has been distrustful of my claim and kept on bringing up the possibility of hostile TP, and Bianca has been sussing me for mountaneous for most of today

We mislynch today
I get lynched tomorrow at a 100% chance
The day later, there's Chele and Vanessa as teammates, random voting puts town's odds of winning in the case I'm scum at 50%

Now let's say that we lynch me today. I'm surv, we Toads dies tonight, and technically, everybody could be scum. 2/5 gives a random mafia lynching probablity of 40%. The next day of 33%. That's like a 2/15 chance of victory

I'm going to do the probablity that I'm scum in a few minutes

 

[amazonevan19]

nO gdi I meant "town" as in, acting town, he's more town. Not he IS town. I just mean he's on our side (not urs, ur scum)

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not really laugh out loud worthy but ok then

sure but w/e

well we're both digging in our heels that the other is scum, and since all of our arguments are predicated on the other being scum, there's no real use in deliberating over it that much longer. I will reiterate this though, and hopefully it'll get through: Dolby switching to me would mean his survivor gambit was all a ploy, no matter what side I actually am. He commanded me to not switch from you because if scum was ok with your death, we'd have reached maj already. If he now claims some bull**** reason to switch to me, it means his whole "I can win now" claim was horse manure, and he clearly has other motives.

So while he thinks he trapped me, in reality he trapped himself whether he's TP or scum.

What will probably happen is he will vote me out of spite because I'm now heavily questioning his survivorship, but as I've shown through the math, we really don't stand to lose much if Dolby is really surv and we lynch him. Either we lynch true surv or we lynch scum. There's no way dolby can be town.

 

[cornimer]

Well this sure is exciting but I'm going to leave a vote on Chele for now because imo Nightmares and Evan are NOT a team so Chele must be partnered with one of them (or Dolby)
Going to work until like 10, let's see where the game is at then

 

[amazonevan19]

Well this sure is exciting but I'm going to leave a vote on Chele for now because imo Nightmares and Evan are NOT a team so Chele must be partnered with one of them (or Dolby)
Going to work until like 10, let's see where the game is at then

fair, but if you're gonna believe that then put your money where your mouth is in the voting thread

 

[Nightmares]

2 votes on me, 2 votes on others

3 more players to go... and I'm guessing Chele is scum so that's 3 votes for me

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Assuming she will vote me ofc

 

[amazonevan19]

Actually, let's start with the harsher assumption that I'm scum, Nightmares is town, and we mislynch her today.

My possible teammates are I'd say that my only teammates would be Chele and Vanessa. Toads is town, Evan has been distrustful of my claim and kept on bringing up the possibility of hostile TP, and Bianca has been sussing me for mountaneous for most of today

We mislynch today
I get lynched tomorrow at a 100% chance
The day later, there's Chele and Vanessa as teammates, random voting puts town's odds of winning in the case I'm scum at 50%

Now let's say that we lynch me today. I'm surv, we Toads dies tonight, and technically, everybody could be scum. 2/5 gives a random mafia lynching probablity of 40%. The next day of 33%. That's like a 2/15 chance of victory

I'm going to do the probablity that I'm scum in a few minutes

If you're really surv then we have a 3v2 by the next lynch and we already know who we'd lynch by then. (Or so I'd hope)

But you are technically right in that no one would be confirmed at that point. The confirm-o-meter would rank from most to least confirmed Vanessa, Bianca, me, Chele, nightmares, but getting us all to agree to lynch nightmares or Chele might be harder at that point in the game since y'know, they might turn on me instead.

So it's probably a bad idea to lynch dolby after all, even though 5v1 sounds really good if he's really scum right now, and 3v2 sounds manageable if he's surv. I'll maintain my nightmares vote but I swear to God I had scum dolby in my grasp and let him go...

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2 votes on me, 2 votes on others

3 more players to go... and I'm guessing Chele is scum so that's 3 votes for me

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Assuming she will vote me ofc

if your partner is ballsy enough to fulfill Dolby's Wager. I saw her in the thread earlier and I bet she's votesitting because she doesn't want to confirm she's your partner

 

[Nightmares]

If you're really surv then we have a 3v2 by the next lynch and we already know who we'd lynch by then. (Or so I'd hope)

But you are technically right in that no one would be confirmed at that point. The confirm-o-meter would rank from most to least confirmed Vanessa, Bianca, me, Chele, nightmares, but getting us all to agree to lynch nightmares or Chele might be harder at that point in the game since y'know, they might turn on me instead.

So it's probably a bad idea to lynch dolby after all, even though 5v1 sounds really good if he's really scum right now, and 3v2 sounds manageable if he's surv. I'll maintain my nightmares vote but I swear to God I had scum dolby in my grasp and let him go...

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if your partner is ballsy enough to fulfill Dolby's Wager. I saw her in the thread earlier and I bet she's votesitting because she doesn't want to confirm she's your partner

You're right, I'm scum. I'm just gonna admit it, guys ://

 

[amazonevan19]

*IF I had scum dolby

 

[Nightmares]

Chele is my scummate, so make sure to vote her too, guys!

 

[amazonevan19]

You're right, I'm scum. I'm just gonna admit it, guys ://

ik it's a joke

 

[Dolby]

Ok so: 50% win prob in the situation that I'm mafia and you don't lynch me today
2/15 when you lynch me today and I'm surv

Actually, you're guarenteed win if I was mafia and lynched today, since I have only two possible teammates and I was lynched, so 100%

If I'm surv and Nightmares is scum, there's a 2/3 chance of town win(Vanessa, Chele, Evan as teammates) if I choose to townside on the last day, and 1/3 if I choose not to. Overall win probability of 1/2. Depends on how I feel at the moment

So giving each side a 50% chance of being true. 16/30 chance of town winning lynching me today, and 50% chance of winning if you lynch Nightmares. Which is 3% better odds assuming those teammates for me and Nightmares

So I actually can't prove it, unless I can rule out another person from being teammed with either Evan or me

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Nightmares or me

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Actually I have an idea

Force Nightmares to vote Chele as Vanessa just voted her
Same logic applies, but it'll be confirmed that there is at least one scum in two different groups (or GG, but I'm personally fine with that): Nightmares and Evan, and Nightmares/Chele/Vanessa. This would raise the straight probablitiy of Nightmares being scum if she is scum, and a indicator for the members of the other groups alligences

 

[Dolby]

Btw Evan, love Dolby’s Wager. Put it in the Encylopeidia

 

[Nightmares]

How...are you gonna force me?

 

[Dolby]

How...are you gonna force me?

Actually, real quick, who’s the scumteam in your view?

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Also, has everybody who could be scum been online yet since I put forward my wager?