Is it worth trying to get Dream villagers from the mystery islands?

[Timeless Theory]

Hi! Mainly curious to see what other people think. I’ve been grinding and using NMT frequently, but I haven’t ran into either Mitzi or Fang yet! I’m a little over 100 down the drain, and with only one plot left open now, I’m unsure whether I should try one last time. I’m also heavily considering just buying an individual amiibo card, but I dunno if it’s worth it lol.
Did anyone else get into this same kind of scenario? Were you lucky or just accepted a second-best villager? Is it worth it? I’m pretty lost and a little tired of grinding, so I’d like to hear other opinions/stories.

 

[Audrey Marie]

maybe try taking a popular villager and then you are able to ask people to trade for your dreamies? that might work better if you still haven't gotten them

 

[Altarium]

What I'm doing is not necessarily looking for someone specific when I go on island tours (though in the back of my mind I'm always hoping I'll find Diana ), but getting to someone that's at least cute or moderately popular (tiers 1-2). Yesterday I went on an island spree and after 10 or so tickets I found Marina, which is not a dreamie of mine but she looks very good compared to a lot of other villagers, and I know she's very popular, so when she asks to move out I can auction her here or trade her for a dreamie!

 

[edsett]

I agree with everyone else to look for popular villagers to trade/sell for more NMTs. I took in Rosie who I traded for Marshal who I never found ever after like hundreds of tickets.

 

[JKDOS]

I use amiibos, but if I didn't, I'd probably try to buy the villagers as playing the lottery doesn't work too well with my luck

 

[momayo]

I did some rough maths (I may be fairly wrong) and it's estimated that you need to spend around 260 tickets to even get 50% chance of getting that one villager you like; around 540 tickets to get 75% chances; 1820 tickets for 99% chance. That's not taking into account that sometimes mystery island campers are based on specific personalities that your island is lacking.

Spoiler: My attempt at maths

Assuming there are 402 adoptable villagers, the probability of getting the one you want, in 1 try, is 0.25%. Now that means for a given visit, 99.75% of the time, you will not get your villager.

For two visits, the probability of not getting your villager is 99.75% raised to the 2nd power (99.75% times 99.75%). Now do that for 100, 200, 300++++ visits (e.g. 99.75% times 99.7% three hundred times). Those are the probabilities that you won't get that villager for that many visits. If you subtract this from 1, this equals the probability that you will get the villager you want. From there, it's a matter of trial and error to see where the percentages lie.

 

[Garrett]

I had a vacant plot ready for my tenth villager and a few tickets left so decided to go on some excursions last night. After a bunch of frogs and other uglies, I found Skye who I was happy with. If you have the tickets anyway, I think it's worth going on excursions. I've found a villager I really like each day I've gone on them.

 

[RandomSanity]

I was in the same situation, I visited a ton of islands and never found any of the villages I was after. Most of the ones I like are not even in the top 2 tiers so I wasn't being particularly picky.

I ended up just accepting the next 2 villagers because I had to get my count up for island rating.. I wasted a few days there needlessly and I'm not a TT so it's a big deal at this point in time!

Every time I go to an island I do strip it down to the bones for the resources however, so it's not a complete waste.

My best luck was yesterday when Flick was visiting my island. The first Nook Miles Ticket I used brought my to tarantula island!

 

[moon_child]

In NL, I was able to obtain all my dreamies in such a short amount of time. This ruined the game for me. When I had them all, I didn’t allow anyone to leave. I got bored so fast. I wished I had more rotation of villagers first before settling in with my dreamies. So in NH, I promised to do it differently. Here’s how I did mine. I didn’t look for a specific villager when I went to the island tours. I just wanted to have control over who’s moving into my island. So every time I go to tours, my mindset is I’m just looking for someone decent, someone I don’t dislike, someone I’d like to get to know. If I get a dreamie it would be awesome, if I don’t, then I’d be able to buy more time to get to bond with a lot of cute villagers first before finding my dreamies. After the entire recruitment process from the 3rd villager to the 10th, I used up about 65 tickets. And surprisingly, ended up with 5 dreamies. Now I’m only gonna look for 2 more when some of the villagers I like but aren’t dreamies leave. I’ll leave 3 spots for villagers to come and go so I can experience living with more of them and keep my island exciting.

 

[cheezu]

What I do is I try to find villagers that are a) either semi popular b) cute enough for me to not mind having in my town for the time being.
That's how I acquired Erik and Wolfgang who I'm hoping to eventually trade for Zucker and/or bells/items.
I guess if you have your mind set on a certain villager, your chances are not in your favor... though some people did succeed so there's always that chance no matter how small!

 

[DJStarstryker]

I'm personally trying to get as much things on my own as I can. I noticed less attachment to villagers I traded for in NL. I don't expect to get my whole set of dreamies myself, but I'd like to get as much as possible.

Considering I still need flowers, fruits, and other things, it doesn't bug me to go to islands that don't have what I'm looking for. Even terrible islands usually give me a furniture from a tree, a bottle, and materials.

 

[PhantomRose]

I've actually been insanely lucky with my islands! I've gotten 3 of my dreamies - two being Audie and Judy (the last being Plucky) from there - with Judy taking about 100 - Audio taking 7! I personally just love going island hopping because it's basically gambling for the 1/400 chance, (with free diy's/fossils/furniture along the way!) and I'm an addict lmaooo

 

[Spunki]

Well, I guess not for me. I’m always getting the popular ones somehow. This time it was Merengue and Mitzi, and in New Leaf it was Whitney, Bluebear and Pietro. In City Folk I got Rosie.

Sad, when almost all of your Dreamies are in Tier 4 or lower lol. But thankfully I will get my Amiibo Cards soon.

 

[roundfrog]

I got crazy lucky and found Raymond after four attempts of island hopping. My criteria then changed to "any wolf but Kyle or Skye" (since I found the smug and normal I wanted) and it took dozens of attempts to find any.

 

[thelonewanderer]

In NL, I was able to obtain all my dreamies in such a short amount of time. This ruined the game for me. When I had them all, I didn’t allow anyone to leave. I got bored so fast. I wished I had more rotation of villagers first before settling in with my dreamies. So in NH, I promised to do it differently. Here’s how I did mine. I didn’t look for a specific villager when I went to the island tours. I just wanted to have control over who’s moving into my island. So every time I go to tours, my mindset is I’m just looking for someone decent, someone I don’t dislike, someone I’d like to get to know. If I get a dreamie it would be awesome, if I don’t, then I’d be able to buy more time to get to bond with a lot of cute villagers first before finding my dreamies. After the entire recruitment process from the 3rd villager to the 10th, I used up about 65 tickets. And surprisingly, ended up with 5 dreamies. Now I’m only gonna look for 2 more when some of the villagers I like but aren’t dreamies leave. I’ll leave 3 spots for villagers to come and go so I can experience living with more of them and keep my island exciting.

Could you explain to me why people like Zucker so much?

 

[roundfrog]

Could you explain to me why people like Zucker so much?

Sorry if I'm not the person you quoted, but people like him cause he's 1. an octopus, of which there are only three, making him part of a rare species 2. Food-themed, which is a popular town theme 3. Super cute (imo)

 

[thelonewanderer]

Sorry if I'm not the person you quoted, but people like him cause he's 1. an octopus, of which there are only three, making him part of a rare species 2. Food-themed, which is a popular town theme 3. Super cute (imo)

Thank you. This new site layout make it easier to reply.

 

[TheRealWC]

I guess it really depends. My only dreamie is Goldie, who I did not find after about 70 or so NMTs. Today I had a random move-in (Avery, ironically I saw him on the island tours), so I guess I'll save up Nook Miles for the next time.

I think if you have a lot of dreamies, then these tours would be a lot easier. Looking for one villager is difficult. However, it's all RNG. You have the same chance of finding your dream villager on the 1st tour and the 100th tour.

 

[Korova]

Is it worth trying to get one exact villager? Probably not. If you have a larger pool of dreamies or are just searching for a villager you like before you get a random one, yes it's totally worth it. I wouldn't have fun spending potentially hundreds of tickets searching for just one, though.

 

[Miss Misty]

Like others have said, you're looking at a lot of Nook tickets if you're looking for one specific dream villager. If you have a list of ones you'd like to have on your island for a while, it's much more fun and chill. That being said, I don't plan on adding another plot to go island hopping with any time soon.