Resetting at the start?

[ctar17]

I'm sure no one has the answer to this right now, but does anyone have an idea of how resetting for certain starting island features will work? I forgot how it worked it NL, but I do remember I reset until I got cherries for my native fruit.

I'm not going to be resetting for hours, I'll just do it until I get apples, peaches, or cherries as my native fruit AND none of the 2 starting villagers are ones that I dislike (I have a list of about 50 villagers that I do NOT like at all, only 8 jocks and 6 uchis are on that list, out of 76+ possible jocks and 23+ possible uchis if it's based off NL villagers, but I suspect that they'll be new ones as well so my chances go up). I guess I won't reset if I get pears but get villagers that I love to start out with, I just really don't want oranges.

Anyways I did the math for the chance that I'll be resetting (since I'm a math and spreadsheets person and I'm so hyped about NH and have nothing else to do rn):
Chance to not get desired fruit: ~40%
Chance to get 1 or more of disliked starting villagers (if everyone gets 1 uchi and 1 jock to start out with): ~34%
Chance to get either undesired fruits or disliked villagers and reset: ~60%
Therefore, chance to not reset is ~40%

Quick math so there may be some mistakes, but by the looks of it, I expect to reset around 2 or 3 times, none if I get lucky first try (40% chance to not reset based on these quick calculations, which isn't that bad tbh, it's almost a 50/50 gamble...) 5-10 at most if I get really unlucky. I'll stick with whatever satisfies my two conditions, and I might change my mind when I actually get the game and see what everything looks like. The airport color isn't really a concern for me atm. The biggest chance for me to reset appears to be getting a native fruit I don't like...

I feel like I'm overthinking this a lot, I'm really not that picky about the start as I'd be happy with 3/5 fruits, 68/76 NL jocks, and 15/23 NL uchis. Plus, I don't really have too much to do right now and am just super excited

Any thoughts? I'm definitely overthinking this...

 

[Tobyjgv]

honestly, i'm probably just going to go with the flow! It's a new game, and there's gonna be new interactions and such! I wanna give what I get a try, before I make judgements. We'll see how it goes~! I can't wait to experience all of the new content in the game

I wouldn't overthink it, because at the end of the day, you can change the villagers you get, but I understand that you may want a specific fruit.

 

[sierra]

I love this forum

 

[ctar17]

Yeah like I said I'm definitely overthinking about this. I was able to put my stats skills to use though XD

I'm sure it will turn out fine for me. I'm not worried about the map layout as you get 4 to choose from and can change it later on. The suspense is so much though, I'm so excited so I've been trying to distract myself lol

 

[Tobyjgv]

yeah that's perfectly cool! i've been starting to think about my goals for my own island too!! i can't wait ahh <3333

 

[Pnixie]

Thank you for the math ! I think just like you about fruits. I'll restart if I get oranges or pears, I don't want these as native fruit

 

[Bunlily]

I'm going to be resetting for a few things but mostly until I get apples or peaches as my fruit. I don't really care about the uchi/jock villagers I get but it would be so cool to get Shari and/or Sparrow as my starting villagers as they were some of the first villagers in my New Leaf town.

 

[ctar17]

Hit me up if you want the math for a chance to reset. What else can an Economics major do on spring break while waiting besides worrying about their stocks...? XD

Can calculate a rough idea of your chances based on native fruit preferences and desired/undesired villagers. Will say that due to assumptions used, the actual chance (according to probability and statistics) will either be higher or lower than what I calculate depending on your preferences (i.e. do you specific villager or anything but specific villagers) Can't offer advice on the layouts though, I'm less concerned about that, and no real way to calculate them from what we know

 

[sierra]

Yeah like I said I'm definitely overthinking about this. I was able to put my stats skills to use though XD

I'm sure it will turn out fine for me. I'm not worried about the map layout as you get 4 to choose from and can change it later on. The suspense is so much though, I'm so excited so I've been trying to distract myself lol

I vibe on your frequency haha I've overthought everything about my Island 89 times each

 

[AquaMarie]

Hit me up if you want the math for a chance to reset. What else can an Economics major do on spring break while waiting besides worrying about their stocks...? XD

Can calculate a rough idea of your chances based on native fruit preferences and desired/undesired villagers. Will say that due to assumptions used, the actual chance (according to probability and statistics) will either be higher or lower than what I calculate depending on your preferences (i.e. do you specific villager or anything but specific villagers) Can't offer advice on the layouts though, I'm less concerned about that, and no real way to calculate them from what we know

I was curious what my chances would be for starting out with this specific combination. You definitely don't have to do the math for me on this unless you really want to, but I am kind of curious. Math was always my absolute worst subject. I don't know yet if I'm planning to reset for all of this, but it doesn't hurt to know my chances.

Fruit: Apples, Peaches, or Cherries
Villagers: Reneigh and any Jock
Airport Color: Teal or Blue

 

[ctar17]

I was curious what my chances would be for starting out with this specific combination. You definitely don't have to do the math for me on this unless you really want to, but I am kind of curious. Math was always my absolute worst subject. I don't know yet if I'm planning to reset for all of this, but it doesn't hurt to know my chances.

Fruit: Apples, Peaches, or Cherries
Villagers: Reneigh and any Jock
Airport Color: Teal or Blue

I'm not sure how many airport colors are possible (from the photos I've seen, looks to be 4: orange, yellow, green ,blue) I keep hearing talk about teal but have not seen teal in a photo yet.

If you're going for Reneigh specifically, then the chances aren't that high I'm afraid.
Everything (including Reneigh): less than 1% to not reset (0.6%)
Just fruit and airport color: 15% (if there are 4 possible airport colors and blue is the only one you want), 24% (if there are 5 and blue and teal are the ones you want)

 

[AquaMarie]

I'm not sure how many airport colors are possible (from the photos I've seen, looks to be 4: orange, yellow, green ,blue) I keep hearing talk about teal but have not seen teal in a photo yet.

If you're going for Reneigh specifically, then the chances aren't that high I'm afraid.
Everything (including Reneigh): less than 1% to not reset (0.6%)
Just fruit and airport color: 15% (if there are 4 possible airport colors and blue is the only one you want), 24% (if there are 5 and blue and teal are the ones you want)

Thanks for your reply! Here's the photo that started the teal airport rumors. I actually hope it means that airport colors are customizable in the future and not necessarily that we can start with teal.

 

[Xara]

i think the only things i’m gonna be resetting for are a good layout and peaches as my native fruit - i’m not picky with the airport colour or even who my starter villagers will be lol

 

[Carson]

Would anyone be able to help me establish a full list of each major (resettable) variable at the start of the game? Still trying to grasp what all I do and don't care about resetting for and want to lay it all out and prioritize! Correct me if any of this information is wrong or I'm missing anything major:

1. Map Layout

- With a large subset of variables including terrain formations, river layouts and deposits, dock/peninsula locations, and Resident Services/Airport locations.​

2. Airport Color

- Tentative variables include Red, Yellow, Green, Blue, and Teal.​

3. Grass Shape

- Variables include Circle, Square, Triangular.​

4. Fruit Species

- Variables include Apples, Cherries, Oranges, Peaches, or Pears.​

5. Villagers

- Tentative variables include 1 Uchi Villager and 1 Jock Villager.​

Is that everything?

 

[ctar17]

Wow I didn't know about the teal or red airports! The colors all look good to me right now, and I don't want to have to reset for that in addition to fruit and villagers I can't stand, so I won't get too attached to any of them and just go with the flow for that.

 

[FreliaCrossing]

I'm sure no one has the answer to this right now, but does anyone have an idea of how resetting for certain starting island features will work? I forgot how it worked it NL, but I do remember I reset until I got cherries for my native fruit.

I'm not going to be resetting for hours, I'll just do it until I get apples, peaches, or cherries as my native fruit AND none of the 2 starting villagers are ones that I dislike (I have a list of about 50 villagers that I do NOT like at all, only 8 jocks and 6 uchis are on that list, out of 76+ possible jocks and 23+ possible uchis if it's based off NL villagers, but I suspect that they'll be new ones as well so my chances go up). I guess I won't reset if I get pears but get villagers that I love to start out with, I just really don't want oranges.

Anyways I did the math for the chance that I'll be resetting (since I'm a math and spreadsheets person and I'm so hyped about NH and have nothing else to do rn):
Chance to not get desired fruit: ~40%
Chance to get 1 or more of disliked starting villagers (if everyone gets 1 uchi and 1 jock to start out with): ~34%
Chance to get either undesired fruits or disliked villagers and reset: ~60%
Therefore, chance to not reset is ~40%

Quick math so there may be some mistakes, but by the looks of it, I expect to reset around 2 or 3 times, none if I get lucky first try (40% chance to not reset based on these quick calculations, which isn't that bad tbh, it's almost a 50/50 gamble...) 5-10 at most if I get really unlucky. I'll stick with whatever satisfies my two conditions, and I might change my mind when I actually get the game and see what everything looks like. The airport color isn't really a concern for me atm. The biggest chance for me to reset appears to be getting a native fruit I don't like...

I feel like I'm overthinking this a lot, I'm really not that picky about the start as I'd be happy with 3/5 fruits, 68/76 NL jocks, and 15/23 NL uchis. Plus, I don't really have too much to do right now and am just super excited

Any thoughts? I'm definitely overthinking this...

I had so much fun tracing back ur probability with the chain rule lol yay for animal crossing and statistics! would be cool to create an app with a simple UX that does this

 

[ctar17]

I had so much fun tracing back ur probability with the chain rule lol yay for animal crossing and statistics! would be cool to create an app with a simple UX that does this

It will probably be a Google spreadsheets where you just put your numbers in and it calculates it. I think I'll start on that now... Yeah it wasn't that hard to calculate the probabilities this time around, just lots of multiplying. I didn't explain all of the steps, but would be happy to provide the full proof if you want to take a look lol

 

[Romaki]

Haha I really have to restrain myself to only reset for the native fruit, I could spend days resetting even with all the new changes. I think we'll able to change the airport color, even if it's just themes like for the town hall again.

 

[moonbell]

Hit me up if you want the math for a chance to reset. What else can an Economics major do on spring break while waiting besides worrying about their stocks...? XD

If you're ever bored and want to do mine, you'd surely have my thanks and appreciation! But you absolutely don't have to.

Oranges
Any 1 of 4 specific uchi villagers
1 out of 3 grass types (just in case we still have 3 options)

 

[ctar17]

The spreadsheet has been created for anyone wanting to check their chances:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bSnHaU04hk7IajWKi_ZbkUlcoxArq9KgumUCLZQt3TM/edit?usp=sharing

please follow the instructions on it (right of the numbers)

- - - Post Merge - - -

If you're ever bored and want to do mine, you'd surely have my thanks and appreciation! But you absolutely don't have to.

Oranges
Any 1 of 4 specific uchi villagers
1 out of 3 grass types (just in case we still have 3 options)

3.5% assuming there are not different grass types. Usually, people wanting specific villagers (rather than just wanting to avoid specific villagers like me) will drive the probability way down...