Resetting at the start?

[Violet~]

I'll reset to get anything but apples and cherries (yes, unpopular opinion, I know... But I had apples and cherries too many times in my ACNL towns so I want a fresh start ). And if I get villagers that I really don't want.

I hope it won't be that hard to reset cause I'll want to start playing asap and not spend hours resetting

 

[Fey]

I’m already prepared for resetting being even more of a hassle this time around due to the autosave feature ;ェ;

Like, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we had to go into our Switch’s system settings to delete the save data before trying anew.

 

[ctar17]

Great topic!

So for the math it's basically probability of A & B happening together (aka. everything goes right) is calculated by multiplying the probabilities of each together. So P(A&B) = P(A) * P(B).

So if you want good fruit & good villagers & good color theme & etc., you just multiply the probabilities of each together. Simple as that! And that gives you the probability that you won't need to reset. Then (1 - answer) = the probability that you will need to reset.

If you want specific villager(s), you just adjust accordingly. For example, if I desperately want Phoebe & Roald together, (1/total uchis) * (1/total jocks) is the chance to get them together. If I just want Muffy really bad and I don't care what jock I get as long as I get her, then it's just (1/total uchis). And then you multiply it with the probabilities of everything else you want.

One thing though, I don't understand your total uchis and jocks? By my count, there are 24 known uchis and 54 confirmed jocks with 2 more that are likely to be in the game, for total of 56. I don't think Sanrio cards work with the game.



Hmm unless I'm misunderstanding you I don't think that works. (1 - P(bad jock villager)*P(bad uchi villager)) gives you the probability that you won't have two terrible villagers together. Yet people will still reset if they have 1 terrible villager they hate and 1 good one (e.g. bad jock + good uchi).

Yeah I know my total villager numbers are off from what it will actually be, I just used the amount of Uchis/Jocks in NL plus the WA update and added in Reneigh... It was mainly to give me a rough idea of my chances for fun

 

[lazyislander]

I just really want apples, don't really care who I start out with!

 

[JKDOS]

I'll reset for the perfect map layout, but I'm willing to take whatever fruits, villagers, and airport colors the game throws at me.

 

[DrewAC]

Resetting for apples, a nice layout, and airport color, so I'll be there awhile, lol.

 

[xTurnip]

I want 2 river mouths and peaches or oranges for fruit. Everything else is changeable.

 

[Soot Sprite]

I'm probably going ot be resetting for a while. I'm not super picky about the native fruit but it would be nice to have apples or maybe pears. I don't think I care that much about the color of the airport, but I do care about the map layout and the villagers. I want at least one villager I plan on keeping for a while, and I'm not a fan of a lot of uchi and jock animals.

 

[Cheybunny]

omfg yes I have no IDEA What I'm gonna be doing ! I think I want to reset until I get peaches and then that's that !!

 

[SugarMage]

I hope to not reset at all but I would prefer villagers I don't really dislike and any airport color besides yellow... Otherwise I'll just take what the game gives me~

 

[Campy]

I think I'll go with whatever the game generates for me. I do have preferences, but I also consider it a challenge to have things like villagers and native fruits grow on me (huhu see what I did there).

Plus, I'll probably be too excited to just start playing the game!

 

[MissShema]

Thank you for making the spread sheet! I have a 4% chance of getting Peaches and a green airport!

 

[Nooblord]

I don’t want to think about how often I might reset. I hope I’m just lucky this time around.

 

[KazooSquirrel]

I just want the lime green airport and pears. Hopefully it won't take me too many tries...