Stalk Market Trend Analysis

[tajikey]

Hello fellow TBT'ers! I am asking for your help with a project to better forecast the right time to sell those wonderful turnips. I created a Google Form that has a series of questions related specifically to your daily AM and PM experience with stalk prices. The output is only as valuable as the input will allow, so if you'd like to participate, you'll need to access the form daily, starting Monday AM, to input your values.

Here's the form:
Trending the Stalk Market

It asks for the following:
1. Forum Username - imperative that you type it correctly each time
2. Island hemisphere location
3. Initial price paid per turnip - I'd like this each time you input data, but if you forget, leave it blank (don't guess)
4. Day of the week, and whether it is AM or PM - do your best to provide both data points daily. For those who don't know, turnip prices change at noon each day
5. Current offering price per turnip

Hopefully, with the power of this wonderful community, we can rally together and create a resource folks can use to best predict when to sell their turnips.

If I missed anything, including whether someone has already started this, let me know. Thanks!

 

[Colette]

It hasn't yet been updated necessarily for ACNH, but this week I used Kurt Boyer's Turnip Wizard and it recommended I sell last night and it seemed to work great! I doubled my investment.

https://kurtboyer.com/stalkmarket/

 

[tajikey]

I see that you put in your data. And yeah, I'd say you did great! That's a hard thing to do, wait until Saturday. Did you check your prices this morning?

 

[Colette]

I did and I can't say I remember exactly, but it was slightly less than last night, probs between 120-160.

 

[Khaelis]

Unfortunately don't remember all the prices for my first week, but I do know it was very similar to a small spike pattern from New Leaf. I'll try to remember to jot down my prices for this week.

 

[DJStarstryker]

I can help starting tomorrow (Sunday). I ignored turnips this week because 1) they were expensive (110) and 2) being only 2 days in, I didn't feel ready to invest money in buying turnips. I want to start doing that now.

I used Kurt Boyer's site for NL, but it's unknown right now if we have the same patterns.

 

[NoMoreNook]

Amazing idea!

Will you be posting the dataset anywhere as you collect this data? Perhaps as a csv or xlsx somewhere?

Also, have you given thought to "price you bought turnips at this week" vs. "price Daisy Mae was selling at on your island this week". As in, if you bought turnips from a friend's island this Sunday because it was cheaper than your own. Which would the game be tracking as a factor for prices? On your form you're asking for "how much did you pay per turnip" which I agree seems the more reasonable of the two choices.

 

[tajikey]

Wanted to give this a bump, since the first turnip prices for North America are tomorrow morning. The output will only be valuable if each person provides 12 data points.

Thank you so much!

 

[Khaelis]

I'll remember to put in my prices for today in, and for the rest of the week (hopefully).

 

[lucitine]

Is question 4 meant to be for when I sold my turnips?

 

[Khaelis]

Is question 4 meant to be for when I sold my turnips?

You mean, "How much is Nook's offering per turnip?"

If so, no, its just the price they are buying for. Of coarse, you can sell if its a good price but do continue to check prices for the rest of the week.

 

[lucitine]

You mean, "How much is Nook's offering per turnip?"

If so, no, its just the price they are buying for. Of coarse, you can sell if its a good price but do continue to check prices for the rest of the week.

Oohh! I think I get what you mean. I just got a little confused by the wording. I'll submit mine soon!

Edit -

I got confused by the question above it. Id recommend changing the wording to something like
"What day and time is the pricing for?"

Or maybe a little description to explain what you're looking for

 

[tajikey]

Is question 4 meant to be for when I sold my turnips?

Nope. The question before asks what Nook's is offering, and question 4 is asking when they're offering that price. I'll edit the wording a bit.

 

[Miss Misty]

I put in my values for today. My pattern seems really weird this week, so I'm interested in where it goes.

 

[NoMoreNook]

Is question 4 meant to be for when I sold my turnips?

I believe the question "How much is Nook's currently offering per turnip?" refers to the price Timmy/Tommy are buying turnips at.

So you should come to the Google form and enter the new value you get from Timmy/Tommy each Monday-Saturday morning and afternoon. (or perhaps if you prefer, just write down all 12 prices somewhere else and submit 12 forms at the end of the week).

[edit]
jk.. I see that tajikey cleared up the confusion.

 

[tajikey]

I believe the question "How much is Nook's currently offering per turnip?" refers to the price Timmy/Tommy are buying turnips at.

So you should come to the Google form and enter the new value you get from Timmy/Tommy each Monday-Saturday morning and afternoon. (or perhaps if you prefer, just write down all 12 prices somewhere else and submit 12 forms at the end of the week).

[edit]
jk.. I see that tajikey cleared up the confusion.

I got you.

Also, PST bump for PM Monday turnip prices. My PM is lower than my AM, so we'll see what happens.

 

[tajikey]

Bumping this for the Tuesday crowd. Please input accurate data. All 12 data points are important, but even 9 or 10 throughout the week could be telling.

 

[iSharingan]

-snip-

 

[thelonewanderer]

Should I sell at 146 or wait?

 

[tajikey]

Should I sell at 146 or wait?

Depends. That's a better than average price, but if you follow the trading board and sell elsewhere, you could do better.