Stalk Market Trend Analysis

Hmm, that purchase price doesn't seem to work out well. Any possibility you might've forgotten the price?

I think the thing you're confused about is the term "increasing phase". Under the table, it describes "Increasing Phase 1" as "Random between 90% and 140% of your base price"

Using your stated base price (105), the range of values you should expect for this first Increasing Phase 1 should be 95-147. This will cover Mon (am) to Tues (pm). Your 2 Wednesday prices are where this gets funky. 90 is outside the range for the increase phase, but also doesn't seem like it is the start of a decrease phase either.

No I know it was over 100 because my friends had lower prices and theirs were 90 and 93 and I didn't buy cuz mine was high. I also know that the first day was an increase because it was higher than what I bought for, cuz I regretted not selling.

To me it doesn't really make sense that an "increasing phase" is only defined by whether it's higher than the base, rather than the trend. Because Small Spike and Large Spike are always such that each consecutive half day is higher than the previous. As in, it has 3 or 4 consecutive increases defining the increasing phase.

In any case, like you observed, regardless of how you interpret it, it doesn't match up with the doc.
 
Small spikes don't necessarily increase from one half day to the next. My small spike week had the increasing phase go 129-114-145-150-142. I think this is a change from old games since I followed the Kurt Boyer wizard that someone posted and it was wrong several times (and it thought that was a random week when it lines up with the small spike in the guide)
 
No I know it was over 100 because my friends had lower prices and theirs were 90 and 93 and I didn't buy cuz mine was high. I also know that the first day was an increase because it was higher than what I bought for, cuz I regretted not selling.

To me it doesn't really make sense that an "increasing phase" is only defined by whether it's higher than the base, rather than the trend. Because Small Spike and Large Spike are always such that each consecutive half day is higher than the previous. As in, it has 3 or 4 consecutive increases defining the increasing phase.

In any case, like you observed, regardless of how you interpret it, it doesn't match up with the doc.

My next question would be, is it possible one of your data points is wrong? (especially the two Wednesday points). Since those are what are messing up the pattern. Otherwise, it would fit the Random pattern perfectly.

The thing is "Increasing Phase" doesn't always have to higher than the base value. A 90% to 100% modifier is possible which will make it slightly lower than the base price, but still classify as under the same phase.

"Because Small Spike and Large Spike are always such that each consecutive half day is higher than the previous."

No this is not true. If you read the description for the "Small Spike", you'll see that the pattern in this game is different from NL.

Half day 1-2 (of the increase phase):
Price is random between 0.9x-1.4x the base price.

Half day 3-5:
Price is random between 1.4x-2x the base price.

This is why some people observe the "camel bump" pattern where an increase suddenly goes down during the next update, then back up.
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Small spikes don't necessarily increase from one half day to the next. My small spike week had the increasing phase go 129-114-145-150-142. I think this is a change from old games since I followed the Kurt Boyer wizard that someone posted and it was wrong several times (and it thought that was a random week when it lines up with the small spike in the guide)

Yeah that's what I was referring to when I said the Small Spike pattern is different in this game. I think the prices were guaranteed to go up each half day in NL, whereas that's not the case here.
 
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