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Talking a villager to death causes them to move?

I definitely think when a villager has a higher friendship they want to move.
But talking to them to death, until they have that emotion, they dont like
 
What I do is just use my second villager (technically a mule except for the fact I like playing as him too) and talk to the villager I want to leave once. Then I TT forward and make a new character and see who moved, if it's who I don't like I then just keep soft resetting for new villagers. If it's who I don't want to leave, I go back and talk to them before they move.

I'm surprised that this isn't a more popular method of seeing who's moving.
 
I don't think talking/ignoring a villager has anything to do with them moving. I think it's completely random.
 
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