I don't want to sound cocky or anything but I don't get this failure rate that everyone is complaining about? Like I had maybe 10 butterflies in the garden and I only missed on 3, so I got 7 out of it.
I can only imagine it's RNG'd like the getting candy canes/countdown charms for those events - sometimes you'll have a dry spell but then you get really lucky. You who are complaining will get lots of butterflies soon, while I can't catch any.
I don't even remember struggling to get loads of countdown charms, even though I actually started playing back in December 26th 2017. And man, Pocket Camp was generous with those things! I would frequently earn at least one countdown charm from doing a villager's request, and the Shovelstrike Quarry often offered an opportunity earning over 20 charms a pop. At the end of the Countdown promotion, I got all of its exclusive items and ended up selling well over 500 leftovers.
Even if its RNG were to be just as stingy the rare butterfly catching, I still would wind up with plentiful of countdown charm leftovers by the end of the promotion. That's because the rewards for completing a request are tied to only one RNG. Rover's Garden Safari on the other hand, is a different story.
Earning both blue and red dahlia seeds isn't too difficult, with the latter being slightly less common. You get both of these by fulfilling requests and handing out any rare butterfly to one of your friends. I've stockpiled over 20 of both types of seeds with only 2-3 days of gameplay. Sounds fine at first glance, but it ain't when you realize there are layers of RNG being involved.
There's one for determining whether or not a rare butterfly will spawn whenever a dahlia blooms, and another for determining the success of catching one. Failure in any of these instances will not yield you a rare butterfly, and success will require you spawning a rare butterfly and grabbing one.
Assuming that each possibility share the same exact success rate, there are 3 possible scenarios, with only one giving you a rare butterfly. In other words, you have 1 out of 3 chance to succeed, so you'd wind up with much less butterflies than the amount of dahlias you've planted.
It doesn't help that the garden is the only way to catch those rare butterflies. A garden in Pocket Camp can hold up to 20 flowers, and getting all of the dahlias to bloom there can take anywhere between 3 and 4 hours, assuming that they're watered at least once or twice. A bloomed dahlia can't host more than one rare butterfly without relying on your friend's doing, so you'll need to replace all of the dahlias in order to spawn even more of those little guys.
With that, the fact you could run short of dahlia seeds and how short the event duration is in mind, the opportunities on snagging those elusive beasts are pretty limited, especially if you don't have much free time to spare.
You might be thinking that I should consider spending my hard-earned Leaf Tickets for Gyroid to guarantee catching rare butterflies. While I appreciate the assistance he could give me, asking 10 Leaf Tickets per creature seems to be a very steep price to ask for, especially when your campsite level is over 38, ran out of goals that rewards you with tickets and lack animals with happiness level lower than 3.
