Alright, that lynch was def very informative. Currently phone posting because I have a meet tomorrow, but again, unless Calamity is maf, one scum at most exists among Dedenne’s voters. Two switches into Calamity from Dedenne and it would’ve been him on the chopping bot instead of her
While I do feel that Calamity is town, I’m going to break this into two sections: one section detailing the possibilities where he’s town, and one detailing the possibilities where he’s mafia, because if he is town, I think the game is close to solved. He’s a lynchpin and the circumstances of the lynch honestly made a lot dependent on his alignment simply by having the second most votes (if people don’t understand the premise of this, read up on why Toads surrendered in APM, or why I cleared Antonio for not voting Tom (a mafia) or myself on D2 of last game)
Commonalities before the analysis: Punchy and Farobi are townlocks. Rune is TP so this is analyzing Ghost, Evan, Antonio, Silver, and Curry. Calamity himself really isn’t analyzed
It is assumed that Rune is a no-catch surv for the purposes of this
The situation where Calamity is town
Again, this is really looking into the involvement of the aforementioned five: Ghost, Evan, Antonio, Silver, and Curry
I’m actually kinda shocked looking into this because I thought that one or two on this list voted Dedenne, but they all voted for other people
Evan and Curry both voted for Calamity, in this situation where Calamity is town THESE TWO VOTES ARE MOST SUSPECT. The Calamity lynch was the only viable option besides Dedenne herself, and he was the only opportunity to get something off of the ground besides Dedenne.
Silver votes for Rune. As much as I want to think that she’s mafia for the rest of her play, I really have a hard time seeing her as mafia being so aggro to a surv, and should Calamity be town, I really think that she’d vote Calamity if she was mafia
Antonio voted for Punchy. You know what, I’m not even going to go into this vote, it’s just a dumb vote, but the same logic applies, however, I feel that it’s town in this hypothetical because a easy cop-out for scum here is to vote no lynch to get the vote off of Dedenne (this is specific to the timing of Antonio’s vote and does not apply to Ghost). Antonio failed to do that, so I’d like to think he’s town for his vote.
Ghost voted no lynch and didn’t end up changing it. He did end up saying that he’d vote Dedenne between Dedenne and Calamity
Bottom-line, Antonio and Silver come out looking best in this scenario for their votes. Ghost doesn’t look that good. Evan and Curry look Sus.
One reason that I’m kinda feeling the need to make both sides to this is that Dedenne voted for NLrather than Calamity when both were tied at the time. I feel the natural path for Dedenne is to vote Calamity to push his vote numbers up a bit, but instead pushes NL more, which in her mind should be more harmful to the mafia then lynching a town Calamity. So I actually can see maf teaming motivations there, but I still think he’s town for moving his vote away from Farobi to vote for maf. But anyway, let’s go into the scenario
Calamity is maf
Evan and Curry, both who voted for him, are almost certainly not mafia. Even if Calamity is a simple goon he has more utility than the framer Dedenne, since Lunchys prob dead tonight anyway and he looked better before the lynch. Maf would prefer a dead teammate Dedenne over a dead Calamity, and Evan and Curry, if maf, would be trying to lap up that towncred
Ghosts vote again looks kinda sus, but that’s due to the nature of it
Antonio, again, I feel would for go for NLover Punchy or Calamity, as at the time of his vote it would have tied Dedenne with NL, and all they would need is one more vote
Silver has no reason to aggro to a surv as scum when she could NL
So Calamity’s hypothetical teammates in this scenario would probably be Ghost, but could also be Silver or Antonio. Having wrote these teams out I really don’t feel Calamity is scum due to the ramifications entailed (almost certainly being teammed with Ghost), there’s only one possibility which I consider plausible within the whole hypothetical subset of scenarios
