oooo gl!
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holy frick cal actually came online
role claim and flavour pls
Mafia The Hunger Games Mafia - Game Thread - Endgame - Mafia + Survivor Win
- Thread starter cornimer
- Start date
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holy frick cal actually came online
role claim and flavour pls
um probably
Ghostkid
the Ghostkidliest guy
Ok then just let me charge this crappy phone and ill post the reads
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Fine ill just put what i think. Mafia is in Cal,Clebx and Evan
Evan and cleb are here due to the fact they didnt join the dedenne lynch who was mafia but joined in on the silver lynch who like i said wad town and, i gave warning that he was but you all dont listen to the new player because u couldn't fake a Sincere post like that, but cleb is more scummy due to them seemingly joining dolby on his "good leadership" of sussing me right after the silver lynch almost instantly. Possibly helping dolby to steer him in the directon of a mislynch?
Cal is because of him just showing up and not saying anything and leaving.
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Fine ill just put what i think. Mafia is in Cal,Clebx and Evan
Evan and cleb are here due to the fact they didnt join the dedenne lynch who was mafia but joined in on the silver lynch who like i said wad town and, i gave warning that he was but you all dont listen to the new player because u couldn't fake a Sincere post like that, but cleb is more scummy due to them seemingly joining dolby on his "good leadership" of sussing me right after the silver lynch almost instantly. Possibly helping dolby to steer him in the directon of a mislynch?
Cal is because of him just showing up and not saying anything and leaving.
ok, im getting tired of waiting
im guessing the reason maf hasnt outed yet is bc they know that there are some kills left unaccounted for from d1/d2, and that getting a ml today does not garuntee victory. assuming optimal play, theres an sk left in the game. ofc, if there isnt maf is free to out themselves and secure an ml today, winning the game (itll be 3v3 in the vote)
so, assuming there is an sk, the game is 2v2v1v1 rn. im also going to assume that sk is immune to nks for the worst case scenario. if scum and i work together today to secure a ml, just focussing on probabilty for now, we have a 1 in 3 to hit sk and win. ofc, this will put us on a timer, as sk will kill scum in two nights, losing scum the game. however, there should be enough time to be 100 percent accurate in the kills, as maf can attempt to shoot the second town tonight and then lynch them if they survive, or lynch the other player if they flip town.
essentially, in the worst case scenario, the kills will go like this:
2 maf v 2 town v 1 sk v 1 surv (surv needed to secure lynch)
- lynch town today
2 maf v 1 town v 1 sk v 1 surv
- hit sk tonight, but they survive, maf is killed by sk
1 maf v 1 town v 1 sk v 1 surv (surv needed to secure lynch)
- lynch sk
1 maf v 1 town v 0 sk v 1 surv
maf victory
another scenario, where town is hit tonight instead of sk (im gonna get rid of the explanations for roles after this, itll make it easier to type, sry if it makes it harder to understand)
2 v 2 v 1 v 1
- lynch town
2 v 1 v 1 v 1
- maf kills town, sk kills maf
1 v 0 v 1 v 1
- lynch sk
1 v 0 v 0 v 1
maf wins
so overall, the best case scenario for maf atm in the event of an sk is to out rn for certain victory, assuming im surv
im guessing the reason maf hasnt outed yet is bc they know that there are some kills left unaccounted for from d1/d2, and that getting a ml today does not garuntee victory. assuming optimal play, theres an sk left in the game. ofc, if there isnt maf is free to out themselves and secure an ml today, winning the game (itll be 3v3 in the vote)
so, assuming there is an sk, the game is 2v2v1v1 rn. im also going to assume that sk is immune to nks for the worst case scenario. if scum and i work together today to secure a ml, just focussing on probabilty for now, we have a 1 in 3 to hit sk and win. ofc, this will put us on a timer, as sk will kill scum in two nights, losing scum the game. however, there should be enough time to be 100 percent accurate in the kills, as maf can attempt to shoot the second town tonight and then lynch them if they survive, or lynch the other player if they flip town.
essentially, in the worst case scenario, the kills will go like this:
2 maf v 2 town v 1 sk v 1 surv (surv needed to secure lynch)
- lynch town today
2 maf v 1 town v 1 sk v 1 surv
- hit sk tonight, but they survive, maf is killed by sk
1 maf v 1 town v 1 sk v 1 surv (surv needed to secure lynch)
- lynch sk
1 maf v 1 town v 0 sk v 1 surv
maf victory
another scenario, where town is hit tonight instead of sk (im gonna get rid of the explanations for roles after this, itll make it easier to type, sry if it makes it harder to understand)
2 v 2 v 1 v 1
- lynch town
2 v 1 v 1 v 1
- maf kills town, sk kills maf
1 v 0 v 1 v 1
- lynch sk
1 v 0 v 0 v 1
maf wins
so overall, the best case scenario for maf atm in the event of an sk is to out rn for certain victory, assuming im surv
amazonevan19
DLELELEWOOOOP
Buckle up for a big ole post. Five pages nearly 2000 words on Word, yikes
Going into this I am of the opinion that cal and cleb are scum v town. Since it’s hard for me to get cleb’s posts since he doesn’t have a post filter, I will try to get all of his posts but if I don’t, I’ll summarize his content the best I can so that cal’s content will also make sense
Cleb is saying that cal’s question about mafia being able to talk to their teammates after death is a potential noob or scum slip. This is where I can see some of the friction between the two rise. Cal’s response is interesting:
I feel this isn’t very well reasoned. If Cal was scum, he would probably ask this to Vanessa in the QT. But he would know full well that by posting it publicly, he could use it to prove his alignment by saying “see! See! I’m not scum! I wouldn’t do this if I was scum!” And that’s what he did. Again, I feel cal is smarter than he’s letting on and there’s things going on behind the scenes.
Lol this is pretty much what I just said when analyzing Cal’s post. Cal’s response is…again, “interesting”
What I notice cal does is he resorts to this “argument” whenever people sus him or back him into a corner. He posts some weird anime character and yells about not being scum, or posts excessive punctuation to REALLY EMPHASIZE HE’S NOT SCUM!! Cleb is right in not trusting this reaction and it’s a pattern of behavior that I have sussed cal for all game.
Maybe I missed something in my post searching, but it appears that cal later on addresses Cleb’s point on Cal’s mafia communication spontaneously later on. Perhaps goaded by QT to give a “better” response:
Here's the thing though: this post is pure fluff. Ok maybe that post alone is a weak reason to vote Cal, but it is simply part of an overall portrait of him that is looking less and less townie as time goes on. There is no reason why what Cal asked proves he’s a “simple man”: on the contrary, it shows that he’s thinking about deeper issues in the game and its mechanics. He then says “vote for me and we lose,” which is something I see either alignment do on EpicMafia ALL the time (but more so by mafia), then redirects the whole discussion on to throwing shade at Cleb. Really don’t like any of that in the slightest.
Antonio, despite his content being confusing, lackluster, and generally antitown in my view, has been replaced by someone who is doing a pretty good job of exposing someone I have sussed for a long time.
Speaking of which, cal’s statement “For the most part, I've been in people's townreads or nulls, with only two players wanting to lynch me. That either means I'm good at playing mafia, or I'm just kind of stupid.” Bothers me for an additional reason. This shows me he’s keeping close track of who is town and scumreading him, which indicates he is afraid of being caught and wants to cite the bandwagon effect to put cleb and I down. He also strokes his own ego over how he’s been playing when he’s really not done much of anything to actually drive town’s agenda forward himself
Overall my analysis seems to bear out what I initially believed about Cal and Cleb. I will be voting Cal again. And to cement my case, let’s take a little look see at voting records:
Cal’s votes
D1: Antonio, who is now Cleb. Hmm
D2: dedenne. Fair enough as she was scum, but DEF a huge potential bus under pressure on cal’s part here. Dedenne was easily sackable due to her low content. Also note cal sussed and voted for Farobi who we now know was the veteran.
D3: MapleSilver, who we now know is townie. I also sussed silver and voted for him too BUT here’s something big. What I do know is Cal started the maple lynch, after initially voting Cleb. He OMGUS voted Cleb as a knee jerk reaction then decided to get on Silver and led town astray.
Cleb’s votes
D1: Antonio voted no lynch, which I found scummy at the time but now I have my doubts. Why stick out like a sore thumb over that? Waffles died in this lynch and with the margins being so close (5-4 waffles) Antonio probably would have just joined the waffles train to save his ass
D2: Antonio voted Punchy. This was a weird vote to be sure and we now know Punchy is confirmed cop but looking back, I am iffy on mafia pushing a blue as much. That’s something I have done as scum before but I do not know if Antonio would be willing to risk it to again, appear like a sore thumb voting wise.
D3: Cleb voted Maple. Was the second to last vote on Maple and Maple was the strongest vote wagon at the time, as any other option was almost nonexistent.
The voting record doesn’t reflect well on Cal and isn’t too kind on cleb, but it definitely appears Antonio/Cleb’s votes have held up better over time.
Going into this I am of the opinion that cal and cleb are scum v town. Since it’s hard for me to get cleb’s posts since he doesn’t have a post filter, I will try to get all of his posts but if I don’t, I’ll summarize his content the best I can so that cal’s content will also make sense
Nothing terribly alignment indicative here on either of them imo; but Cal’s first interaction with cleb before the great debate is notably in agreement with cleb. I do think Cleb’s read of Antonio (the slot Cleb replaced) is honest and that gives him slight town points. I doubt the first thing a mafia replacement would do is discredit who they are replacing. Cal just kinda reiterated what cleb already said which is slight scummy points but really there’s way better reasons to be sussing cal rn.
Cleb is saying that cal’s question about mafia being able to talk to their teammates after death is a potential noob or scum slip. This is where I can see some of the friction between the two rise. Cal’s response is interesting:
I feel this isn’t very well reasoned. If Cal was scum, he would probably ask this to Vanessa in the QT. But he would know full well that by posting it publicly, he could use it to prove his alignment by saying “see! See! I’m not scum! I wouldn’t do this if I was scum!” And that’s what he did. Again, I feel cal is smarter than he’s letting on and there’s things going on behind the scenes.
Lol this is pretty much what I just said when analyzing Cal’s post. Cal’s response is…again, “interesting”
What I notice cal does is he resorts to this “argument” whenever people sus him or back him into a corner. He posts some weird anime character and yells about not being scum, or posts excessive punctuation to REALLY EMPHASIZE HE’S NOT SCUM!! Cleb is right in not trusting this reaction and it’s a pattern of behavior that I have sussed cal for all game.
Maybe I missed something in my post searching, but it appears that cal later on addresses Cleb’s point on Cal’s mafia communication spontaneously later on. Perhaps goaded by QT to give a “better” response:
Here's the thing though: this post is pure fluff. Ok maybe that post alone is a weak reason to vote Cal, but it is simply part of an overall portrait of him that is looking less and less townie as time goes on. There is no reason why what Cal asked proves he’s a “simple man”: on the contrary, it shows that he’s thinking about deeper issues in the game and its mechanics. He then says “vote for me and we lose,” which is something I see either alignment do on EpicMafia ALL the time (but more so by mafia), then redirects the whole discussion on to throwing shade at Cleb. Really don’t like any of that in the slightest.
Antonio, despite his content being confusing, lackluster, and generally antitown in my view, has been replaced by someone who is doing a pretty good job of exposing someone I have sussed for a long time.
Note here that Cal does absolutely nothing to actually address cleb’s main argument here. He repeats himself a lot on how “weak” the evidence is against him and how cleb will have to find more evidence to convince others to vote for him. But nowhere in any of cal’s posts do I see any explanation of why his posts aren’t blatant WIFOMs or really any defense of his “analysis” whatsoever. He just puts up his thoughts, then berates anyone (cleb and yours truly) for not townreading him when most people are null or town reading him.
Speaking of which, cal’s statement “For the most part, I've been in people's townreads or nulls, with only two players wanting to lynch me. That either means I'm good at playing mafia, or I'm just kind of stupid.” Bothers me for an additional reason. This shows me he’s keeping close track of who is town and scumreading him, which indicates he is afraid of being caught and wants to cite the bandwagon effect to put cleb and I down. He also strokes his own ego over how he’s been playing when he’s really not done much of anything to actually drive town’s agenda forward himself
Overall my analysis seems to bear out what I initially believed about Cal and Cleb. I will be voting Cal again. And to cement my case, let’s take a little look see at voting records:
Cal’s votes
D1: Antonio, who is now Cleb. Hmm
D2: dedenne. Fair enough as she was scum, but DEF a huge potential bus under pressure on cal’s part here. Dedenne was easily sackable due to her low content. Also note cal sussed and voted for Farobi who we now know was the veteran.
D3: MapleSilver, who we now know is townie. I also sussed silver and voted for him too BUT here’s something big. What I do know is Cal started the maple lynch, after initially voting Cleb. He OMGUS voted Cleb as a knee jerk reaction then decided to get on Silver and led town astray.
Cleb’s votes
D1: Antonio voted no lynch, which I found scummy at the time but now I have my doubts. Why stick out like a sore thumb over that? Waffles died in this lynch and with the margins being so close (5-4 waffles) Antonio probably would have just joined the waffles train to save his ass
D2: Antonio voted Punchy. This was a weird vote to be sure and we now know Punchy is confirmed cop but looking back, I am iffy on mafia pushing a blue as much. That’s something I have done as scum before but I do not know if Antonio would be willing to risk it to again, appear like a sore thumb voting wise.
D3: Cleb voted Maple. Was the second to last vote on Maple and Maple was the strongest vote wagon at the time, as any other option was almost nonexistent.
The voting record doesn’t reflect well on Cal and isn’t too kind on cleb, but it definitely appears Antonio/Cleb’s votes have held up better over time.
amazonevan19
DLELELEWOOOOP
what your last post and this tell me is that we should have just killed you ages ago because third party/survivors always end up scumsiding in the end anyway, and you continue your pattern of uselessness for town's cause. It is understandable since we've not done a terribly good job up until this point, but I resent your trying to end this game the way you want to when we definitely still have a fighting chance if we get this lynch right.
We kept rune around too long and now he's blatantly scumsiding :\
u resent me for playing optimally? im sry but im gonna do my best to try and win the game, even if its mean to town or we.
for a slightly more serious question, who do u think cal is teamed with then? u never actually said who would be on cals team, im getting a certain impression from some of ur points but u never outright stated it
amazonevan19
DLELELEWOOOOP
if cal is actually scum and thats y he was afk earlier im gonna kill myself omk
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if maf doesnt claim today im just gonna vote cal, its suboptimal but if scum isnt gonna play well y should i
I mean, I do have to agree, the fact that maf’s not outting pretty much means that they think you’re SK or at least one maf is afk. Ghost has been pretty active, I’m here. Evan, despite being kinda inactive DEFINETELY would have tried to out and side with you if his teammates in rn, Cleb I am highly certain is town
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Dolby's Wager, ahh good memories
so this means rune is confirmed SK right
Tbh, highkey wouldn’t be surprised if he was purely for the kill counts
