Villager hunting - Am I doing something wrong or is the RNG just trash?

[Che5hire Cat]

Okay sorry, but I have to vent now, because I have the feeling this game's RNG is kidding me.

Today is the 4th day where I do villager hunting, I had so far luck to find two villagers I wanted via island hopping while I had to buy the third one (Rudy) via Nookazon, as chances of finding him where even lower than with the other two. Now I'm looking for my last dreamie, Rolf. I probably spent over 200 NMT so far and I can't find that dang tiger at all. Instead, the game presents me the same handful of villagers over and over and over and over again. As if this is not dumb enough, I get sometimes send to the exact same island I was previously, which the same exact villager. Like as if the game's RNG wouldn't change anything and just sends me right back to the island I visited a minute ago. Best example happened today this morning: I go to an island, find Elvis, twice within 10 minutes on the same island. No joke. Just a moment ago, I found Octavian, twice, in a row. For some reasons, Kidd along with Kitt and Cesar also showing up pretty often now, all three appeared this morning, with Kidd even three times and Kitt as well as Cesar twice. The only "new" villager I found was Marshal and I was so glad to see that little guy that I even made a photo together with him, as it's a miracle to find someone who is not one of those 10-15 villagers which showing up again and again within a short time. Other villagers who start to bother me too are Whitney (I mean, I like her, but I don't want her right now), Norma, Patty, Bubbles, Stu, Vic, all three of the octopus villagers as well as any of the chicken, gorilla and frog villagers. I also somehow got Bob and Erik quite often, which confuses me a lot, as Bob for example for being a cat villager with low chances of appearing showed up 4 times (!) in total. And somehow, even with such a trashy RNG, I was able to find Raymond, like wow, I get the most popular villager easier and faster than a villager who is kinda liked by the AC fans smh...

Am I doing something wrong here, like do I overlook some sort of trick of how to find different villagers or any kind of thing that perhaps blocks Rolf of showing up on a mystery island somehow? Or is the RNG really just that terrible? I mean, I don't mind spending a good amount of NMT to find certain villagers, but at least having some sort of variety and not seeing the same faces for the 293308th time would be nice, like it would make the search more enjoyable and less frustrating. With how it is right now, it's feels like as if the game jokes with me. If anyone has tips or can help me here of what I can do, I would really appreciated it. Btw, if that's important, I don't have a cranky on my island and also no tiger villager at all.

 

[bebebese]

Uhhh that sounds really weird... Is your island 5 stars/otherwise complete, or are you at that part of the tutorial where you have to find particular villagers? Even if it's the latter, it shouldn't be limiting you that much.
Only thing I can think of suggesting is maybe turning your switch off completely instead of just sleep mode, if you don't do that already. Cow/bull villagers are the most common when island hunting, but I can't explain any of the other stuff.

 

[Rosch]

You are getting Cranky villagers, so I guess RNG just really hates you. Try restarting your game every 10 islands to keep shuffling your RNG.

 

[Che5hire Cat]

A little update: I finally found Rolf after spending almost 250 NMT in total. Before he showed up, I got yet again a bunch of repeats, including Elvis who showed up again twice, so a total of 4 times just today.

What I just found so strange is that it's always the same two-three villagers from the same species. Like when it comes to the gorillas for example, I got either Cesar, Rocket or Boone, but rarely or never one of the other ones. The ones who showed up overall the most were Vic and Norma. I have to say, this was the most strangest villager hunting I've ever done. I'm glad that I found those I wanted, still wondering why I saw all the time the same faces and so rarely any new ones or why suddenly villagers like Bob, Whitney and Erik showed up so often.

Uhhh that sounds really weird... Is your island 5 stars/otherwise complete, or are you at that part of the tutorial where you have to find particular villagers? Even if it's the latter, it shouldn't be limiting you that much.
Only thing I can think of suggesting is maybe turning your switch off completely instead of just sleep mode, if you don't do that already. Cow/bull villagers are the most common when island hunting, but I can't explain any of the other stuff.

Last time I checked my island had 4 stars and I'm not in the tutorial phase, in fact I completed that one a long time ago. I do always put my Switch on sleep mode, perhaps I should maybe turning it off completely once in a while. Interesting is that even if cow/bull villagers are the common ones, I didn't see every cow or bull villager, in fact it was always the same one or two (in this case, Vic and Norma, followed by Patty). Same goes also for gorillas, monkeys, frogs and later even pigs along with the kangaroos.

You are getting Cranky villagers, so I guess RNG just really hates you. Try restarting your game every 10 islands to keep shuffling your RNG.

I had luck at the end to find him, so thank goodness, because I thought something is wrong of why he wouldn't show up. I should try this method out next time. The only times where I restarted the game was after like 20-30 tickets by switching out my characters and go hunting with an alt one (fun fact: I actually found one of the three with my alt character).

 

[jenikinz]

The RNG is garbage. I have the same issue. One day while searching I got the same villager several times. I was suprised and didn't expect that you would get the same villager on a mystery island more than once in the same session!

 

[Rosch]

Congratulations on finding Rolf!!! He is one of my all-time favorites and my birthday buddy.

I adopted him from someone for free. But I got him with an annoying outfit. After a long time, he finally cycled it out (he sold it to me).

 

[skarmoury]

RNG is just bad. There have been speculations here and there about how you only have a set pool of villagers to meet since a lot of people complain not getting their desired villagers, but from what I know this was debunked. It's purely RNG. I don't think there have been any confirmed tricks or exploits to getting your desired villagers. A sort of "placebo" thing to do I guess is to restart your game or play at a later date so you don't feel like the villagers are repeating? Idk. I do it sometimes but it's mainly just to refresh myself.

What I do know is that the game never rolls based on personality but on the species. The reason why octopus villagers are so common to find is because there are only 3 of them, so every time you roll for an octopus (1/35 chance), you have a 1/3 chance per octopus. Compare that to tigers, if you're looking for Rolf then the game first has to roll for the tiger species, then roll within the species (1/7 chance per tiger). If you have repeats thats just how rolls work. You're guaranteed to see doubles at some point.

I also know someone who took 1100+ NMTs just to find Tangy. I feel bad they weren't blessed by RNGesus.

 

[niko@kamogawa]

Villager management is one of the worst features in Animal Crossing. I suffered greatly from it. Honestly, I got a lot of help from the community here. I can't imagine getting all my dream villagers alone.

Congratulations on getting Rolf though! He's a keeper.

 

[Livia]

Congrats on finding Rolf!
It’s all RNG. You just have to get lucky to find who you want. It took me 431 tickets to find Cole and it was at the part of the game where I could only find a lazy villager so I got a lot of repeats. I also saw the same villager twice in a row a few times. The only lazy villager I never saw at the end was Biskit. It’s a good thing Biskit wasn’t the one I was looking for or I might still be Island hopping haha. I love villager hunting, but that time was horrible. At least I could spread it out over a few days because I didn’t have the plot ready yet.

 

[mermaidshelf]

Congrats on find Rolf in the end!! There has been research done on the RNG. It's not truly random (in that all villagers have an equal chance of showing up at any given point). According to this thread, the game chooses a species first.

Mystery Island RNG Pattern - solved with data and stats tests

Hello all, There is lots of talk about the specific pattern that is used for villagers on mystery islands. I would like to present my findings in this thread and open it up for possible statistics discussions to confirm this theory even more. First, I'd like to thank Selkie for sending me...

www.belltreeforums.com

I remember reading about this one person who used 600 NMTs and would only see the same 70 villagers or so at a time. Then something would trigger a new set of 70 but they weren't sure what triggered it.

 

[Mu~]

I read clearing the cache might help with that.

 

[letterKnumber9]

Clearing the cache has been debunked. The cache is only used when the switch connects to websites and stores log-in data, browsing history, and cookies. To quote a dataminer, "A lot of things like native variation and the void are tied to the save file, if clearing the cache affected the save file, it could cause corruption, so it obviously doesn't affect it"

 

[Skyfall]

I think if it was true RNG we would all have better luck.

I really believe there’s some type of preference at the island. I get a disproportionate sightings of bulls. And cows. And birds. Almost no deers, or cats. I’ve only seen one horse ever. No elephants ever.

And even among the animals I’ve see the same villager. There’s a cow I’ve seen like 4 times. You can’t tell me this is real random luck!

I totally feel your frustration

 

[Mairen]

I had a similar experience myself. I wasnt using hundreds of tickets like you, but even with using 25 nmt, I encountered the same villager 3 times, and many others twice, some even twice in a row! I wasnt searching for any villager in particular, thankfully, but it seemed quite unlucky considering there are hundreds of villagers to potentially encounter.

 

[Plainbluetees]

The RNG is so screwy. I remember when you needed crabs for the secret ingredient in the thanksgiving event, I couldn’t find a single one the week before the event and on the day of. I tried trading with villagers but they kept giving me clams and dabs instead. I spent two hours in total trying to find one and I couldn’t. The day after thanksgiving, I found one in ten minutes.

Today, I had Francine in my campsite. I wanted her to replace Ankha. I lost most of the games and when I did win Francine always choose some of the villagers I had the highest level with. She choose Cranston four times, Static three times, Sydney twice, and every villager except Raymond (who isn’t new) and Lily (who came via amiibo) and it took 13 restarts to get her to kick out Ankha who has the lowest friendship level out of all my villagers. All in all it took an entire hour and a half to invite Francine because I kept losing and she kept picking the villagers I wanted to keep.

I don’t have much experience with villager hunting via NMT islands - the only time I’ve used them, I found the villager I was looking for on a money rock island two tickets in. I just kinda think I’d rather spend 60 NMT for a villager rather than 100 trying to find them with how crazy the rng is. The only good thing I’d say about the NMT in my opinion is being able to get an absolutely original villager and not having to communicate with people who sometimes don’t respond. There also might be a villager you want but people don’t seem to sell often - maybe you want Annicotti the peppy mouse. Well, there haven’t been any listings for her here since New Horizons launched and there have only been seven listings on Nookazon.

 

[Xara]

unfortunately, rng is just awful sometimes. i went on an island hopping session about a week ago and used 72 nmt and near the end, i kept running into the same villagers over and over in a row (octavian, jitters, tank, etc) to the point where, like you, i got excited whenever i saw a new face, even if it wasn’t a villager i wanted lmao. it’s incredibly frustrating but i’m glad that you were able to find rolf!! :’^)

 

[SlEEPYTEARRS]

i really dislike the rng for villager hunts especially

one time i used over 100 tickets in a row and i couldnt find any of my like 40 dreamies

ive also noticed that in the 600+ tickets ive used i only have one of the new villagers pop up ever (sherb) so its never inspired confidence in villager hunting and now i just buy villagers to keep the stress away

 

[.MOON.]

Congrats on getting Rolf! But I feel the rng for this game is terrible. I’ve come across the same villager sooo many times while looking for others. Soo much so that I just stop after spending a certain of NMTs for my sanity. I’ve had better luck with my campsite than island villager hunting.

 

[Miss Misty]

Like others have said the RNG is just terrible. I always get into cycles where it seems like I'm getting certain villagers or certain species way more than I should. My most recent island hopping excursion, I had like 30 Koalas out of about 100 tickets used. I usually get days where I end up with a ton of certain species like that (mostly Octopi, Horses, and Lions).

And even within species, I see certain villagers more than others. For instance, if I get a Kangaroo, 9 times out of 10 it's either Astrid or Walt. To go back to the Koala thing, I ran into every Koala multiple times that most recent trip, except Eugene, who I've never seen while island hopping. According to my stats, I've run into 27 Pigs, yet never Chops, Gala, Hugh, or Peggy.

I keep track of it because my memory is good (it's a blessing, and a curse, but mostly a curse); it'd bother me to not have detailed notes because I'd remember the general gist of it and then get frustrated by not remembering the specifics. If you can get away with just zoning out and not paying too close of attention to who each individual villager is, I'd definitely recommend that over taking meticulous notes like I do

 

[-Lumi-]

The RNG in this game is absolutely awful. I have no idea how they’ve programmed it but it needs to be fixed, imo. It’s super frustrating to be hopping islands either to find villagers or just materials and be sent to be same island multiple times!

I usually only have the patience for 5 or so islands at a time because Orville’s dialogue is so long lol and in those few islands I’ll get repeats. Whenever I’m looking for villagers it can be such a headache to go back and forth constantly. Definitely something off about the RNG between the islands, stock in the stores, NPC appearances, and the DIYs it’s a mess.