Are Coelacanth spawns bugged in snowy weather?

[JKDOS]

Has anyone ever caught a Coelacanth during a snowstorm without using bait?

I've been searching for a coelacanth for a collective of over 15 hours now within the last 48 hours. In total, I've found

2x Blue Marlin
4x Tuna.
14x Oarfish

I took a break for a bit yesterday evening and even caught a Stringfish.

Ninji's datamine shows Oarfish have a 1% spawn rate, Coelacanth have a 2% spawn rate. Statistically speaking, I should have found a couple Coelacanths by now.

I did a search and found a reddit post where others have the same problem and claim it may be bugged

https://www.reddit.com/r/AnimalCrossing/comments/katy4n

I just now time traveled to February 27th. A day with actual rain. I found a Coelacanth in 24 minutes.

The Critterpedia says rainy days, and lists all 12 months. Rain is not possible in January, so it leaves one to assume snow counts.

I'd like to know everyone's opinion and experience with this. I've seen that fish bait can spawn Coelacanths without rainy weather, so if you found a Coelacanth in the snow without fish bait, let us know.

 

[Raz]

I have. Although I didn't play a lot during winter, I recall fishing two coelacanths back then. I even took them (and a third one I had caught before) to CJ, to commission a statue.

 

[Wrathie83]

So far I haven’t caught one yet and yet it’s been snowing all day for the past 2days....weird

 

[JKDOS]

So far I haven’t caught one yet and yet it’s been snowing all day for the past 2days....weird

On my main island, I would find so many of them before winter, it no longer felt special when I would catch one. Maybe Nintendo nerfed their winter spawn rate sometime after the spawn rates were last data minded.

If you don't mind TTing, I'd recommend trying to look on a rainy day in late February / early March, see if that helps. Took me less than 30 minutes after I moved out of the snow season, and now I feel like I've wasted a lot of time for nothing. I normally wouldn't use TT to gain a bug/fish, but since the coelacanth is supposed to be available right now, it seemed justified.

 

[jefflomacy]

I did when the game was first out and people on the southern hemisphere began having snow. But, that was many builds ago and may be broken now. Hard to say.

 

[moonlights]

I've caught one in snowy weather, but that was in December. it seems like it was easier to find them in the rain.

 

[Shawna]

I have heard stories of people being able to, but I haven’t found any proof of it. :/

I have spent a lot of time trying to catch one in the snow, but to no avail.

 

[JKDOS]

I have heard stories of people being able to, but I haven’t found any proof of it. :/

I have spent a lot of time trying to catch one in the snow, but to no avail.

I'm starting to feel the same way about snails now. They are out all year and all day during rain, yet I have never seen a single one in the snow.

--
Unless my math is wrong here.

The Coelacanth has a 2% spawn rate, while the Oarfish has a 1% spawn rate. If we pretend they both had a 1% spawn rate, then finding a size 6 fish would be a 50% chance of being either one. Me finding 14 Oarfish in a row is not probable.

As the chances of finding that many oarfish in a row is (0.5^14)*100 = 0.0061%.

The chance of finding 1 Coelacanth within 14 size-6 fish is about 99.99%

So being 2%, the odds of a size-6 fish being a Coelacanth in the rain should be 2/3, which means the actual chance of finding 14 oarfish in a row is (0.33^14)*100 = 0.0000181%

If this isn't bugged, I should try the lottery

 

[Shawna]

I'm starting to feel the same way about snails now. They are out all year and all day during rain, yet I have never seen a single one in the snow.

Me neither. Granted, I just reset my island a few days ago, but it’s been snowing quite a bit and I do have rocks.

 

[John Wick]

I found coelacanth to be common at the start of the game.
The spawn rate was high for me.

They paid for my mortgage.

Haven't caught any in the snow, though I no longer fish or catch bugs.

 

[Mick]

I'm not sure I have seen one in the snow. I used to catch them all the time back in the rainy days (have 6 and a model in storage, they really weren't that rare). It's definitely been a few months since I've fished one up, and I've seen a lot of snow on my island.

I wonder if people are thinking snow and rain are the same because it has the same effect on flowers? I'm really doubting it based on your findings, especially since I haven't seen snails either and I have a ton of bushes...

 

[DarkSlayer1331]

Me neither. Granted, I just reset my island a few days ago, but it’s been snowing quite a bit and I do have rocks.

I have noticed that snow does not actually seem to effect spawns the same way that rain does. Why do I say this? No snails when it snows, and the butterflies are still out when it's snowing, even though they're not when it rains. So either they bugged up snow so that it's not affecting spawns the way it's supposed to, or snow just doesn't affect bug spawns.

 

[nightglow]

I assumed they disappeared in the snow like the snails

 

[Shawna]

I have noticed that snow does not actually seem to effect spawns the same way that rain does. Why do I say this? No snails when it snows, and the butterflies are still out when it's snowing, even though they're not when it rains. So either they bugged up snow so that it's not affecting spawns the way it's supposed to, or snow just doesn't affect bug spawns.

That could be.

But on the other hand, snow waters your flowers. pp
And I have of heard people catching coelacanths in the snow. I guess I need to do more research.

 

[JemAC]

I haven't managed to catch any in the snow and I don't think I'd caught one for quite a long time leading up to the snowy weather either, though I've had no problems catching oarfish despite their lower spawn rate. However I did do some TT'ing recently to move out a villager and when I'd made it to rainy day in March I decided to do some fishing and caught 4 coelacanths in a row, nice surprise but a little odd considering how rare they've been recently. I'd guess that the snow and rain act differently to each other in the game (except for watering the flowers) and that's why the coelacanths and snails don't seem to be spawning.

 

[JKDOS]

That could be.

But on the other hand, snow waters your flowers. pp
And I have of heard people catching coelacanths in the snow. I guess I need to do more research.

I know coelacanths can be caught without rain by finding them on a NMT island or using bait on your island. So I'm wondering if those finding it during snowy season were in a special scenario like that. At first I thought I was just unlucky, but looking at the supposed math makes me feel otherwise.

https://www.reddit.com/r/AnimalCrossing/comments/fn76sb