[Spreadsheet] Mystery Tour Villager "RNG" (Peppys only. Spoiler: Species gets rolled first, thus odds are not equal)

[ctar17]

Thank you for sharing this and I'm glad you finally found Dotty! I assumed this also while I was island hopping since I saw so many repeats in smaller species like the octopi and barely any of the cats or dogs etc., but I just tracked names and not personalities so I would need to clean it up prior to posting.

That's disappointing if you're looking for that one elusive villager who happens to be one of many of that species (especially once you get passed the initial 5 villagers where all villagers personalities can appear)! I hope more people continue to share their data like this so we can analyze more.

Also @ctar17 thank you for running a Chi Square test! My brain is happy

I knew my econometrics class I suffered through this semester because I had to take it for my economics major would come in real handy!

 

[Aliya]

I knew my econometrics class I suffered through this semester because I had to take it for my economics major would come in real handy!

For sure! I'm studying Epidemiology so I love hard numbers like this. I'd love to compile more data as more people share to really dig into this too.

It'd be interesting to see what the chance of encountering each villager is once you get passed the initial 5 villagers (accounting for those 5 prior to calculating, but that'll be a project)!

 

[ctar17]

For sure! I'm studying Epidemiology so I love hard numbers like this. I'd love to compile more data as more people share to really dig into this too.

It'd be interesting to see what the chance of encountering each villager is once you get passed the initial 5 villagers (accounting for those 5 prior to calculating, but that'll be a project)!

My next plan is to test if there's an intermediary personality roll before finally rolling a specific villager. Will need a lot more data for this, but I have a plan of how to test it. I can't use the octopus method for this though. I'd do it on a species with all the personalities and a lot of villagers!

 

[Sheba]

Sorry for suddenly turning silent, guys! And thanks so much for all the congratulations! I rushed to put down the three houses before the new day began here in Germany (and wasn't fast enough so for the first time I TTed back an hour because dangit, I wasted two weeks on this already, I let myself have this!), so Drago has now moved in and I was also allowed to finally put down the spot for the Able Sisters. Suddenly I have a whole town in the making!

When it comes to the actual data collecting for when all personalities are on the board during the Mystery Island Tours, I wouldn't even know how to begin figuring that out since I think it's pretty important when the roll for personality is made. If personality get rolled first, then a species who doesn't have villagers in every personality will show up less often. If species gets rolled first, then you're actually better off with wanting a dreamie from a species which doesn't have villagers in every personality (I think).

As I'm not in that stage of the game yet, I also still have no idea if the personalities you already have on the island affect the chance of each personality showing up on a Mystery Tour and stuff like that. And I'm (obviously) really, really bad at maths. Doing this with one set personality was easy, but you've seen I needed help to interpret the data correctly even now, so...more complex matters are definitely better left with people who are smarter than me. Still, I'm very glad I managed to get some good data for you all. In the end, it wasn't all 450 promised NMT, but I'm not sad about that at all. Took long enough already to get Dotty!

But you guys can be sure I'll be back here, using all those tickets, when it's time to get Annalisa, as she's not the Normal villager I had settled on during the initial plots, but she's one of my dreamies, so on all the tours I'll go! Might as well make spreadsheets again, too! For now, it seems I'll have a relaxed weekend while I wait for my three new guys and gals to slowly move in! Yay!

Thanks for the help, support and smart explanations here, guys!

 

[ctar17]

Sorry for suddenly turning silent, guys! And thanks so much for all the congratulations! I rushed to put down the three houses before the new day began here in Germany (and wasn't fast enough so for the first time I TTed back an hour because dangit, I wasted two weeks on this already, I let myself have this!), so Drago has now moved in and I was also allowed to finally put down the spot for the Able Sisters. Suddenly I have a whole town in the making!

When it comes to the actual data collecting for when all personalities are on the board during the Mystery Island Tours, I wouldn't even know how to begin figuring that out since I think it's pretty important when the roll for personality is made. If personality get rolled first, then a species who doesn't have villagers in every personality will show up less often. If species gets rolled first, then you're actually better off with wanting a dreamie from a species which doesn't have villagers in every personality (I think).

As I'm not in that stage of the game yet, I also still have no idea if the personalities you already have on the island affect the chance of each personality showing up on a Mystery Tour and stuff like that. And I'm (obviously) really, really bad at maths. Doing this with one set personality was easy, but you've seen I needed help to interpret the data correctly even now, so...more complex matters are definitely better left with people who are smarter than me. Still, I'm very glad I managed to get some good data for you all. In the end, it wasn't all 450 promised NMT, but I'm not sad about that at all. Took long enough already to get Dotty!

But you guys can be sure I'll be back here, using all those tickets, when it's time to get Annalisa, as she's not the Normal villager I had settled on during the initial plots, but she's one of my dreamies, so on all the tours I'll go! Might as well make spreadsheets again, too! For now, it seems I'll have a relaxed weekend while I wait for my three new guys and gals to slowly move in! Yay!

Thanks for the help, support and smart explanations here, guys!

Hi I'd be interested in data once you can collect more!
I'll just need:
Island # , Villager name, Species, personality

Doing it with 1 personality was actually very useful as it established a control for us to find this species first pattern. My data when all 8 personalities available point to the same thing, species first

Also I made another thread about this, and I'll say it here again: my stats test from data collected when you can hunt for all 8 personalities currently conclude that the game rolls species first. I'm unsure if it goes straight to a specific villager from there, or if it rolls personality next, but it decides species before anything else

anyone can DM me data, very interested!

 

[Sheba]

Hi I'd be interested in data once you can collect more!
I'll just need:
Island # , Villager name, Species, personality

Doing it with 1 personality was actually very useful as it established a control for us to find this species first pattern. My data when all 8 personalities available point to the same thing, species first

Also I made another thread about this, and I'll say it here again: my stats test from data collected when you can hunt for all 8 personalities currently conclude that the game rolls species first. I'm unsure if it goes straight to a specific villager from there, or if it rolls personality next, but it decides species before anything else

anyone can DM me data, very interested!

Awesome, I'll definitely keep that in mind once the island hopping game begins for me again! And it's good to know that it's species first (because honestly, that seems more fair than personality first). I'll see what the game wants from me next, I haven't spoilered myself that much, but I sit on a lot of NMT and will sooner or later need to use them anyway.

 

[ctar17]

Awesome, I'll definitely keep that in mind once the island hopping game begins for me again! And it's good to know that it's species first (because honestly, that seems more fair than personality first). I'll see what the game wants from me next, I haven't spoilered myself that much, but I sit on a lot of NMT and will sooner or later need to use them anyway.

Yeah, I suggest reading my thread about species first, as there's also some answers to questions that people asked. Not to self promote, but it could be very useful if you're hunting for someone specific... like... you know who XD

 

[Sheba]

Yeah, I suggest reading my thread about species first, as there's also some answers to questions that people asked. Not to self promote, but it could be very useful if you're hunting for someone specific... like... you know who XD

Man I will never get why people are into the "you know whos" xD In New Leaf it was Marshal, who is one of my very least favourite villagers ever. Now we have a new You-Know-Who and while I like him and definitely wouldn't kick him out if I'd get him, I'd also be cool with Lionel over him.
Only dreamies I really still need now with no alternative are Bunnie and Annalisa and it seems Bunnie might become the biggest pain in the bum, thanks to the amount of rabbits in the pool. Would also like Ruby, but three peppy are not really a good thing. For all others, I have alternatives or just flat out don't want anyone from that personality. Also gonna check your thread out now, yay!

 

[Tiny Knight]

EDIT: It's clear now! TL;DR: Game rolls species first, then villager if there's more than one in the species, making the odds uneven - less possible villagers in a species mean higher chances for those villagers appearing. Thank you to ForbiddenSecrets for helping me realize this!
---

So, as I had posted yesterday, I am desperately trying and failing to get Bunnie or Dotty as a Peppy villager for my initial Peppy pick. Given that I have already and very quickly found a Lazy and Normal I like, I am currently only getting Peppy villagers. However, I not only failed to find Bunnie and Dotty but basically every single bunny, despite there being so many in the Peppy pool.

And so, spreadsheets. I have 450 NMT to use (but will stop when I get Bunnie or Dotty). I will use them in batches of 50 and will vary daytime and date to see if it has any influence. For now, here's tickets 1-50, done on Friday afternoon. And look at this data, it's already interesting and has a pattern:
View attachment 243751
View attachment 243754
As you can clearly see, species with only one possible villager in the Peppy group appear A LOT! There are nine villagers who are the only "Peppy"s of their species, out of 49(!) total, but they make up almost half of the island populations! This is a huge thing, obviously, and rabbits seemingly just don't happen unless the stars perfectly align because there's so many of them. At least not in the afternoon hours.

I will start my second 50-batch once my Switch has recharged and edit it in here once I've collected the data. It's now in the middle of the night here in Germany, so the second 50-batch will happen at around 3am and we'll see how that influences things. Given that I had done all tours at night until now and I'm at this since almost two weeks, I can say: It likely won't change much and I expect the same results based on my experience. But science and all that... also I am horribly frustrated. I just want Bunnie or Dotty...

EDIT: I got Dotty (AAAAAAAA!), so collecting is over for now, but it's pretty sure at this point that ForbiddenSecret has it right and the game rolls species first (all equal chance). And, if there's more than one possible villager for the set personality in that species, it rolls again. Hence, if there's only one villager possible for a species, said villager will appear far more often than if there's eight villagers in a set species and personality type. To summarize: If you want a peppy bunny, be ready to cry. If you want Audie, your chances are pretty good during the initial three houses!
View attachment 243842
View attachment 243843

Will collect more if a set personality happens again on the mystery islands. But this is pretty confirmed.

what about characters like Cherry, Ankha, and Lucky? Do they also apply to the list?

 

[Tracie.honeybay]

What about maple how hard is it to find her?