I'm fairly certain that harbours fos patterns actually makes them town. It's one thing to buss your mafia when you know they're going to get lynched, it's another to buss them from d2, I had to go back and check because harbour did vote heyden, but they did have the vote on oath before that.
I genuinely believe that harbour is town here, I think it makes the most sense given the circumstances of Oath flipping mafia - even if it's Oath + Shae mafia. Seems like a much more natural read than a buss.
I still don't get the townread on Tae. My scumread on them started end of night 1, and their reaction was to flip out, and then give up even though I'm the only consistent pressure on them all game. Like. What's the plan.
idrg dino to be honest.
And I'm still not sure about the alignment between locket/shae...
But if I assume that Tae is tp who got rb'd, then I'm looking for 3? more mafia.
Earlier I put shae/tae/dino, but if I take tae out as third party, I think it probably looks like shae/locket/dino, with dino as a ? slot, very slight possibility of being trundle.
I think punchy/glow/harbour are a pretty decent townlock, given the state of the game.
None of the prs are mafia, and if it's the masons I'm sure it'll be glaringly obvious.
I'm fairly certain oath flipping mafia solved the game, so I'm pretty happy about it.
glow
Harbour -> to be honest i haven't read very many of harbours posts in detail because i don't really notice very much wrong with them PunchyDaHufflepuff Trundle
side note for context, when oath says "Why" he's speaking to trundle. on d1 trundle said that he was okay with lynching either oath or tae.
so i'm going to say right now that in the case where tae IS mafia, trundle should be effectively cleared unless you think he just went rogue d1, nearly got himself lynched, and attempted to bus two of his partners.
next was hayden posts which i'm skipping. FFWD to oath's reply to daniel:
ok this quote is important. this is actually THE maximum amount of names that he included in a singular post. and we know of the six, four were town. would oath realllllly name ALL town. no, probably not? BUT we also know that his main pushes (hayden, geoni) were town. i'm considering the idea that we can likely assert that one of locket/trundle are mafia.
then oath questions Antonio about trundle/hayden, even though he "sr'd" them both. doesn't ask about punchy. (oath hasn't said anything about punchy) which i questioned him on.
I'm not buying this "tae is mafia" thing because I think that's just...
I have no clue where it came from. And I'm not sure I buy it now.
I do have to sus Geoni a bit. I realized why exactly I've felt weird and felt like I can coast. And you know why? He's not pushing me. I don't feel stressed, I'm not yelling at anyone. Geoni's been half-assed sussing me all game so far. It's resulted in everyone kind of parrotting the same thing. And usually he's been one of the bigger pushes on me when I don't contribute much.
Yeah, I know this is a weird case. "He doesn't sus you enough therefore he's scum?" The answer is yes. He pushes me to contribute. He knows he can't now because his usual push to get me to contribute or get lynched would result in me flipping green. And it'd look bad for him. Because he's scum.
shawo basically said everything I have been thinking about today. Geoni is a higher risk lynch and I am SRing tae over him anyway. I placed my vote on tae because of that. Hopefully the inactives will have more to contribute tomorrow?
I don't know why Dino hopped on Geoni but I'm putting my vote in for him. I'll try to keep up with the thread but it's date night tonight so I'll be floating around and might not read before EoD.
Harbour is sus lowkey and I think I'll re-read their posts. But just based on your second paragraph, the logic would stand that Geoni is a better lynch candidate. You seem to be perfectly fine with lynching potential town (Harbour) to test if Geoni is scum for a lynch candidate tomorrow. That's...odd.
I voted Punchy because at the time, Punchy did seem to be acting off. Then the site went down, then no-one was posting, then I was ASLEEP. Can you stop trying to paint me as mafia because I can't change my vote or be active as late into the days as you can
That's... the first time I've called you mafia, it wasn't for the reason that you voted punchy, it was because you voted punchy at all given the state of the game.
I do think you are a tad bit too defensive, given the context of what I said, especially since I willfully admitted that I am not qualified to read you, you're just kinda in that list because "I have townreads and you're not one of them."
That's... the first time I've called you mafia, it wasn't for the reason that you voted punchy, it was because you voted punchy at all given the state of the game.
I do think you are a tad bit too defensive, given the context of what I said, especially since I willfully admitted that I am not qualified to read you, you're just kinda in that list because "I have townreads and you're not one of them."
No, you did it yesterday as well, and I said the same thing then, to which you completely ignored me trying to talk to you about that. Gimme a minute and I'll find it for you if you like.
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It was when I was caught up in the early Geoni wagon and didn't have the chance to change my vote once things started ramping up at EoD
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Alright, I apologise, I was wrong. You haven't implied I was mafia once before.
You've done it three times.
So here's where I think things get interesting.
I believe that there was definitely a mafia or two on the Geoni lynch, if it's two, it's most likely to be oath/dino.
Well I'm not going to argue semantics with you, but the difference between these posts is in one I actively said "you're a part of the mafia team" while in the others I said "a part of the lynch pool". If you want to split hairs over each of these posts were I suggested you might be mafia you're free to do so, but that wasn't the idea here.
Well I'm not going to argue semantics with you, but the difference between these posts is in one I actively said "you're a part of the mafia team" while in the others I said "a part of the lynch pool". If you want to split hairs over each of these posts were I suggested you might be mafia you're free to do so, but that wasn't the idea here.
Alright, fair enough then, apologies for getting angry with you.
Since you're good with numbers for this it seems, may I make the request that you do the maths for what's likely to happen now we've gotten one mafia member? I think there were 4 mafia so I'd assume they still have 2KP for tonight.
[context: this is to f11 but they're kinda memeing with each other since its a play on what oath said about trundle being investigated. and f11's reply about a framer.]
Dude you couldn't be assed to look into why I thought Geoni was scum. I know he was your buddy but you need to actually provide a reason why you think f11 and I are scum instead of reeeee-ing.
Further, you logically can't clear glow without clearing me.
I gave my reason for why I thought he was scum. First two then voted, then I hopped on.
this is about sheabae, first mention. also, this is in reply to locket, and which is the first time he interacted w. locket after lightly defending locket
locket's response on sheabae: (the bolded is in regards to sheabae)
i still find it slightly weird how exactly they're behaving tbh
i think after they returned a bit yesterday it really made an alarm go off to me @Sheabae i do wanna see more though
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i don't feel like any of my personal scum reads have any concrete evidence because i'm still going pretty largely off of emotions
This seems to be a post that's just a D1 bandwagon onto Trundle.
Mog pops up later. NL is not a good thing on D1, sus.
What I find interesting about this post is that in a little under 48 hours your scum list above completely changes into 4 brand new people, most notably hopping on the lazy train of everyone accusing me
You definitely have been consistent on sussing mog. Which I do think is odd in retrospect. I'm not a fan of "you're inactive so I sus you" when you've been inactive yourself. I'm not blaming you for being inactive but I don't like the lowkey hypocrisy.
You've also been very flip-flopping on mog. Going from sussing on two posts, then losing mog on a post, and then sussing again. I have to ask, do you believe mog's claim?
this sort of push makes me think that sheabae may be town. but it's weak. because oath pursues punchy not shea. the shea vote at the end was self preservation.
then oath discusses more of the game in response to tae, even though tae wasn't really talking to oath.
i think this post is really important. he sets up his push on punchy, and yeah we all know that oath and punchy interacted HEAVILY. so i'm not gonna quote those.
TL;DR from that, punchy comes out of it looking town. the only thing that feels weird is punchy's last minute change of mind, but i believe that he could still have made that choice as town.
really interesting that trundle and dino are ordered first. oath never stated that he townread either of those people. in fact, oath said he had no reads at all on dino previously.
locket is placed in the middle ish, but it is VERY weird that tae is ordered behind me (meaning oath thought i was scummier than tae) despite calling me one of the most town in his prior reads list, and agreeing with me in thread a few times.
i'm seeing a pattern in that oath's hardest pushes (hayden, geoni) were town, he also lists me second in his first list and i am also town in case you were wondering. harbour isn't pushed hard here though, so i'm not sure they fall into this category but i can say that i think punchy does.
this is in reply to punchy. i don't really think it means anything bc he was just trying to find something to argue with punchy about. but it does seem forced as an interaction, as his reads don't align with this claim.
okay. that's basically everything worthwhile. obviously skipped over the punchy stuff.
CONCLUSION/SUMMARY TIME.
oath made several interactions with tae that were pretty fruitless. they feel forced/non interactive in a meaningful way. the reason why they feel forced is that he's injecting himself into the conversation, and involving tae:
D1 - "TLDR on tae would help me" when discussing his scumreads on trundle/hayden. i'm not sure why tae was even mentioned here as it doesn't seem related?
D1 - tae criticised jacob for having a scumread based off 1 single RQS answer. oath replies to tae and says that it "is something to go off" (NOTE: this is NAI as a statement. the interaction is what feels out of place to me)
oath responded to the post where tae was stating that everyone was "sheeping shawo" and explained why he was "likely to sheep anyone", an atypical post from oath as he begins to expand on his thoughts in the game even though he wasn't asked, compared to the earlier reads where Antonio/geoni/etc. had to ask. NOTE: i am not saying that elaborating/explaining is scummy, this is something everyone should be doing. i just think it's interesting that he chose to respond to tae, despite tae not referencing oath directly in their post -- tae was just speaking generally to those that scumread them
oath defended tae once, saying he didn't "buy that tae is mafia". but oath said that trundle/tae were the people he wanted to lynch d2???? this was before the shea/punchy ISOs. THEN after the shea/punchy ISOs, in oath's last reads list, oath listed tae as null/in the middle????
so yes, tae and oath ARE, technically, very compatible. i'm saying this objectively speaking.
if we follow the pattern that oath's HARDPUSHES were town, as in the case of geoni/hayden, this leads to: punchy + sheabae being town. i am much more confident that punchy is town for obvious reasons. and like i said i wouldn't quickly categorise shea as in the same category because ultimately oath's objective was to lynch punchy.
so i'm left with:
Harbour
Trundle
DinoTown
Sheabae
tae
Locket
i stand by the claim that if tae is mafia, trundle is town. objectively there's nothing that suggests that trundle is compatible with tae, and IMO oath as well.
i think harbour and tae's votes placement were interesting. personally i would not suggest any of trundle/tae/harbour for a d3 lynch but i think my main takeaway is that a tae ISO is needed. i still think trundle is town. i really haven't looked into harbour. i'm giving them d3 immunity because i think they pushed oath for awhile lol.
that trims d3's lynch BEST OPTIONS to:
dino/shea/locket. tae as a potential, objectively speaking, because some of the interactions are pretty damning. personally though, i would wait on tae and see if we can hit mafia in the first three.
so that's where i'm looking next and yeah pretty sure everyone else is too. but this post needs to end soon so i'll wrap it up.
of the pool that i don't townread at this point:
tae is mentioned first by oath. (no read from oath), locket is defended lightly by oath. then dino (no read from oath). then harbour (light scumread from oath). then sheabae (stronger scumread from oath).
so i'm looking into locket/dino before shea. which works out bc shea isn't here at the moment anyway. ALSO, i don't find it a coincidence that locket/dino were left out of oath's first listing of his reads in order. he said he had no reads at all on them, then after his punchy/shea pushes are formed, he places dino into #2 townread and locket into #3 townread despite no explanations for either.
love your ISO breakdown @glow
idk of the benadryl is making me hazy but with your trundle + me thing, is it just if i’m maf trundle = town. or is it reversible as well? like if trundle is maf does that make me town?
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alao is anyone gonna fess up to that stupid message i got? bc i’m still haunted by that bull****
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also i can see why you’d assume i could be mafia with some of oath’s interactions with me, but honestly i’m town and i think he saw me as an easy push. even if he didn’t push hard. he kept my name relevant to feed shawo’s tunnel on me /knowing/ i’m not mafia and that there was enough sus towards me that it would be an easy town lynch to jump on.
y’all won’t believe me til you see the roles.
and i admit my attention to this game has been puss poor for my first game back in some years, and i can’t use real life as a solid excuse despite the ****ery going on right now- but i mean it when i say that i think there’s some valid ass shady stuff coming from shawo. i’m hoping i’m just being petty but like y’all my gut says there’s something up.
i agree on the locket sus. but i don’t have a good read on dino or shea. shea jumped in all wolff a few times but they’ve been so distant it’s hard to really read. pockets robotic and kinda.. aloof but i can’t say i’ve ever really played a game with them.
as far as my vote went today, i didn’t think punchy was scummy and i only voted oath bc i really wasn’t caught up and i’ve tunneled my votes for shawo this entire game and i didn’t wanna split the votes and risk punchy dying when i don’t think he’s scum. not that anyone asked but i wanted to explain my vote since i was my present enough to do so earlier
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wasn’t present enough.
also sorry for so many typos i’ve taken so much benedryl today i think i’m gonna die
I'm glad to see a high effort post that is both easy to follow and a great read, my only complaint is that you did the one thing that probably looks the towniest after you lynch mafia and not before??
Also numbers.
Viable situations:
4 mafia:
We're at 12, going to 10, so it's 10-3, so we do have a mislynch, going into 7/3 because lynching mafia here puts kill power back at 1, which would be a 5-2 split.
4 mafia + 1 third party:
This ones basically impossible to analyze, but if 3 people die tonight, we end up at 9/3 + 1, however my understanding of sk has them at not being able to win with mafia, so in order to win the game, mafia or sk has to be lynched tomorrow.
I think the last realistic situation is
3 mafia + 1 third party:
Which has us ending with 2 kill power.
if I'm going to be completely honest, I think this scenario seems really unbalanced for the mafia, and probably isn't a reality.
I think serial killer is actually detrimental for mafia, and not for town since there's a random chance that the serial killer just kills mafia.
But ignoring variance, town ends up at 10/3 with 2 kp, but with 2 opposing factions.
Obviously it's probably impossible to identify which scenario it is, but I think due to the third kill on night 2, and the fact that 3 mafia + 1 third party seems super broken, and the fact that there's no claimed vig... 4 mafia + 1 third party seems to be the most likely scenario.
Given that, I'll probably have to completely reorganize my reads, because the way I read the game doesn't account in any way for a possible third party. It's mostly just read based/alignment tells, and honestly? if someone was on their own I doubt I would be able to accurately identify them as mafia.
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Theory: SK has the ability to send a message, and they send a message to Tae, the mafia, who is now incredibly confused.
What about the possibility that there's only 3 mafia left? As in, we started with 4, got Oath, now there's 3 left, without a third party? That would still give 2KP for tonight.
The three kills on D2 could be explained by Oath using their abilities. They've not said they have/haven't and they aren't gonna so we could be dealing with just 3 maf left and no third party.
so i'm looking into locket/dino before shea. which works out bc shea isn't here at the moment anyway. ALSO, i don't find it a coincidence that locket/dino were left out of oath's first listing of his reads in order. he said he had no reads at all on them, then after his punchy/shea pushes are formed, he places dino into #2 townread and locket into #3 townread despite no explanations for either.
I'm gonna go ahead and take a guess that Oath did this to put the suspicion on two people they thought could be pushed for to cause a mislynch. Even in death they can cause havoc. While I'm honestly current unsure and maybe a little wary about Locket in general, it would be a clever idea to sow seeds of doubt on a town newbie that most people null/weak townlean. You'd waste a day with another mislynch over it.
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Going back to the buildup of roles left, if there's 3 kills tonight there's always the chance that there's another pr mafia who could contribute, so still not necessarily a third party. Given the odd blue prs we have, this game is clearly leaning into a more 'experimental' design so I wouldn't be surprised if there's two or more pr mafs.