I'd like you guys to reply to my/our posts, it would be appreciated.
Also the whole Kelpie thing really explains Trundle imo.
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Mafia TBT Mafia XV: The Siren's Call (Game Over/Mafia & Third Party Win!)
- Thread starter Chris
- Start date
I'd like you guys to reply to my/our posts, it would be appreciated.
Also the whole Kelpie thing really explains Trundle imo.
Well I stopped posting because it was night and I didn't have much to say, and I wasn't on during day until early this morning when I was groggy. I know that oath died as a detective under suspicion and I really don't have much of a defense for that, except for the scum might have a mafia detective
JellofishXD
Senior Member
I'm sorry Ashtot I'm actually trying
Anyone want to counterclaim Cory, Natty or Trundle? Any remaining thieves?
Hello hi. zthe only person I said to be killed is Cory, who ended up being 3rd Party. But hey, I play to improve.
Spotlight: Crystal
K so those who played Prin's Cell Mafia ought to remember the "spotlight" cases. Since there's clearly more than four people up for lynch at a time, don't expect me to do a case for each person. Only doing this with those I'm suspicious of and those who I think we should be wary of.
Not really going to commentate posts sort of like I did with the others previously, but having gathered up all of Crystal's posts it makes you think. Where did the strong, I'm trying, player go? There's really nothing of substance here, just a collection of one liners that could give Alise a run for her money. Crystal why have you seemingly stopped trying? Are you mafia trying to blend in as much as possible this game?
So far only three posts are large enough and have any real substance. Each point fingers to various players like Cory, Natty, Sataric and Cariad. Two thieves, two unknowns. You keep saying you'll post suspicions later or you'll bring up quotes from previous games, but you've yet to do that. So what are you doing Crystal?
K so those who played Prin's Cell Mafia ought to remember the "spotlight" cases. Since there's clearly more than four people up for lynch at a time, don't expect me to do a case for each person. Only doing this with those I'm suspicious of and those who I think we should be wary of.
Not really going to commentate posts sort of like I did with the others previously, but having gathered up all of Crystal's posts it makes you think. Where did the strong, I'm trying, player go? There's really nothing of substance here, just a collection of one liners that could give Alise a run for her money. Crystal why have you seemingly stopped trying? Are you mafia trying to blend in as much as possible this game?
So far only three posts are large enough and have any real substance. Each point fingers to various players like Cory, Natty, Sataric and Cariad. Two thieves, two unknowns. You keep saying you'll post suspicions later or you'll bring up quotes from previous games, but you've yet to do that. So what are you doing Crystal?
Where is everyone? I see Dad lurking the thread, presumably making a case against someone. The rest of you who haven't given excuses for being away for the day can still post, so where are you modkills in waiting?
Thoughts, suspicions, anything? Or are you only going to "improve" in Nub Mafia?
For my suspicion on Natty and Cory can be explained. It's a completely closed setup Natty's claim could have been easily fake. Same with Cory. I noticed something was off and it was. He was just 3rd party that doesn't care to win with town or Mafia. I'm am suspicious of Cariad tho. Her play style just seems so different from her town play style. I'm always suspicious of overly town players too. Just see how well that turned out in Mount Olympus and Cell mafia II. Yes the quotes is just laziness on my part but real life happens.
Geoni
You're doing great!
20 players alive. 3 thief claims that I believe (Natty, Cory, Trundle). 1 Town Roleblocker claim that I believe (Ryan88). 1 townie that I'm 100% sure about (myself).
This leaves 15 players, 5 of which are mafia. Now, if I want to take a gamble and exclude some of the people I feel strongly about being town but of course can't be 100% sure of, I could deduct Minties from that count. Minties has addressed any of the concerns I had about her and made what is what I consider the strongest post in the game so far, but then again there's this chance that she could be really convincing and is mafia, in which case she's awesome. And shame on me for ending my analysis on her at this point since nothing else suspicious is coming up from her. Anyways, if I want to be confident about her alignment (I should at least try to be comfortable with something or I'll get nowhere and continue to suspect everybody), I can suspect that there are 14 players, 5 of which are mafia. These are the players that I will be focusing on right now. My approach today with these folks is that I'm going to be looking at the behavior that makes me unsure of their alignment, and try and find something within their posts that makes me think they're avoiding talking about something/hiding something/not expressing that extra something that they usually do.
So, the 13 people that I think could be mafia are: Alice, Dolby, Karen, JellofishXD, KarlaKGB, Sataric, Ashtot, Tom, Crystal, Cariad, Yui-Z, alise, Lauren, and Jeremy. I want to make a case on each one of these individuals before the day two/day night cycle is over and I'm potentially dead, but this will take a while. I know I should do the most suspicious first since I need to help town form an opinion on a lynch for somebody, but this is going to take a lot of effort on my part and I'd just rather do cases on who I feel like doing cases on first. I'll get to my first victim(s) soon but I wanted to put this post out there since I said I would, even though it isn't what I promised. I've been getting sidetracked today.
- - - Post Merge - - -
14 people that I think*
This leaves 15 players, 5 of which are mafia. Now, if I want to take a gamble and exclude some of the people I feel strongly about being town but of course can't be 100% sure of, I could deduct Minties from that count. Minties has addressed any of the concerns I had about her and made what is what I consider the strongest post in the game so far, but then again there's this chance that she could be really convincing and is mafia, in which case she's awesome. And shame on me for ending my analysis on her at this point since nothing else suspicious is coming up from her. Anyways, if I want to be confident about her alignment (I should at least try to be comfortable with something or I'll get nowhere and continue to suspect everybody), I can suspect that there are 14 players, 5 of which are mafia. These are the players that I will be focusing on right now. My approach today with these folks is that I'm going to be looking at the behavior that makes me unsure of their alignment, and try and find something within their posts that makes me think they're avoiding talking about something/hiding something/not expressing that extra something that they usually do.
So, the 13 people that I think could be mafia are: Alice, Dolby, Karen, JellofishXD, KarlaKGB, Sataric, Ashtot, Tom, Crystal, Cariad, Yui-Z, alise, Lauren, and Jeremy. I want to make a case on each one of these individuals before the day two/day night cycle is over and I'm potentially dead, but this will take a while. I know I should do the most suspicious first since I need to help town form an opinion on a lynch for somebody, but this is going to take a lot of effort on my part and I'd just rather do cases on who I feel like doing cases on first. I'll get to my first victim(s) soon but I wanted to put this post out there since I said I would, even though it isn't what I promised. I've been getting sidetracked today.
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14 people that I think*
This is a blatant lie in my opinion. Already on Day 1 you said:
And I believe that was one of the very first posts in the entire game where someone strongly suggested that another person needed to die, and for the weakest of reasons too. You didn't say that you found them scummy or anything like that - Just that you felt they did not contribute much, and it was still super early. Since I believe Ryan is town, I am very glad people did not follow suit with your idea.
Looking at the whole Crystal VS Cariad scenario, I feel that both have an higher than average chance to flip scum. And if they do, we'll start a chain reaction that will significantly improve the position that we are in. For instance, I was not too sure about Tom at first, but now he's really pushing for the Crystal lynch I feel - So when/if Crystal flips scum, that would certainly make me feel a lot better about Tom. And that's just one example out of many. We could go back and analyze the entire thread. Who else was suspicious of them early? Who stayed out of the conversations about Crystal, hoping it would blow over? We could get so much information out of just one successful lynch.
As for Cariad, whom has also been shady through-out the majority of this game, one particular thing she said in her most recent post stood out to me a lot:
I didn't want to mention it at first, and maybe I am reading in to it too much, but I feel this could be a soft blue-claim. She's implying that she's important, at least, and maybe that she has an action that she has not yet used. (Vigilante?) That makes it incredibly risky to go for her first. BUT it could also mean that she has a scum power that only has a limited amount of uses, like a mass-kill-strike. Or that she's an arsonist (Yes, still not ruling that out..). And if that is the case, she's wanting to buy herself one more day so that she can use this power to do harm to us before she ends up lynched. That makes me feel incredibly uncomfortable.
I will try to defend myself to the best I can. If I do happen to get lynched and flip townie, I'd appreciate all town players to look at who I'm suspicious of. There is no "if or when" I flip scum, I will not. Why? Its not rocket science, I am town.
Then as town why are you not trying harder? You spent time working on posts in previous games as town and tried keeping that up when you were scum, but this game you've kind of slipped until accused.
I agree with Tom, Crystal appears to be slipping severely this game, their posts seem to be more of an attempt to blend in without slipping up or potentially harming their fellow scummates, plus the lack of something that could even be considered a defense despite posting makes me more suspicious along with pushing already suspected players while bringing up nothing new. I'm voting for Crystal.
Geoni
You're doing great!
Hmm actually, I just want to reduce my list and get some people out of the way that I think are town and one that I don't want to risk lynching right now.
Cariad
Cariad is the one I don't want to risk lynching right now because of what Sataric pointed out. I got softclaim vibes from that too, and tbh I think anybody would. Which isn't good for her either way because people already seem to want to lynch her and that could just be her means of trying not to get lynched but at the same time that's how she can say 'hey guys I'm actually claiming to be a useful blue role so don't lynch be and doc protect me because mafia will go after me'. But then I feel like this is what could be going on. I find it peculiar that she gave a response to everything in minties' post against her except the part where she criticized her for the reaction she had to me saying I was reaction testing. And that seemed like a slip but then again it could have been an honest mistake. I'm against lynching her right now but I want to get not wanting to lynch her out of the way.
Other players I think are probably town:
KarlaKGB: Seemed kind of quiet and scummy towards the beginning of the game (it was just a vibe), but then he picked up pace in the middle of the game and started making productive and logical posts that just made him seem like town. He's quieted down, but he gave a reason as to why (flying somewhere). I don't want to lynch KarlaKGB.
C R Y S T A L: I'm looking into all of the responses she has given to people and I think that she isn't scum, because when people have criticized her similarly in past games she responded in the same way. This is a very difficult thing to point out and put on display through quotes in stuff, it's just a...read.
Sataric: see my last list post for some reasons why I think he's town and why I think that he shouldn't be lynched. However, in deeming him one of my 'town-likes' I risk letting scum get by. He could have been using this kallie thing to throw us all off but then at the same time my other theory about it makes him feel too important to lynch.
Karen: It's difficult to get a great read on this person because as I've stated before, I have not played a game with her before. But the things that she is pointing out (Such as the point about Alice only pointing out 'facts') makes me think she's a townie trying to figure out the game like I am.
I probably shouldn't have promised a grand amount of postage because I'm starting to get a really crappy headache but maybe tomorrow I'll be feeling better. I definitely want to make posts on Alice, Jeremy, Ashtot, Lauren, and JellofishXD. The prime suspects in the remaining players I haven't talked about yet. The others being Yui-Z, Dolby, Tom (ugh odd vibes from him too), alise, and anyone I'm forgetting about.
Cariad
Cariad is the one I don't want to risk lynching right now because of what Sataric pointed out. I got softclaim vibes from that too, and tbh I think anybody would. Which isn't good for her either way because people already seem to want to lynch her and that could just be her means of trying not to get lynched but at the same time that's how she can say 'hey guys I'm actually claiming to be a useful blue role so don't lynch be and doc protect me because mafia will go after me'. But then I feel like this is what could be going on. I find it peculiar that she gave a response to everything in minties' post against her except the part where she criticized her for the reaction she had to me saying I was reaction testing. And that seemed like a slip but then again it could have been an honest mistake. I'm against lynching her right now but I want to get not wanting to lynch her out of the way.
Other players I think are probably town:
KarlaKGB: Seemed kind of quiet and scummy towards the beginning of the game (it was just a vibe), but then he picked up pace in the middle of the game and started making productive and logical posts that just made him seem like town. He's quieted down, but he gave a reason as to why (flying somewhere). I don't want to lynch KarlaKGB.
C R Y S T A L: I'm looking into all of the responses she has given to people and I think that she isn't scum, because when people have criticized her similarly in past games she responded in the same way. This is a very difficult thing to point out and put on display through quotes in stuff, it's just a...read.
Sataric: see my last list post for some reasons why I think he's town and why I think that he shouldn't be lynched. However, in deeming him one of my 'town-likes' I risk letting scum get by. He could have been using this kallie thing to throw us all off but then at the same time my other theory about it makes him feel too important to lynch.
Karen: It's difficult to get a great read on this person because as I've stated before, I have not played a game with her before. But the things that she is pointing out (Such as the point about Alice only pointing out 'facts') makes me think she's a townie trying to figure out the game like I am.
I probably shouldn't have promised a grand amount of postage because I'm starting to get a really crappy headache but maybe tomorrow I'll be feeling better. I definitely want to make posts on Alice, Jeremy, Ashtot, Lauren, and JellofishXD. The prime suspects in the remaining players I haven't talked about yet. The others being Yui-Z, Dolby, Tom (ugh odd vibes from him too), alise, and anyone I'm forgetting about.
Okay, just because I'm third party doesn't mean I am going to sit back and do nothing. I still would prefer to win alongside town. c:
I was gonna make a post listing my thoughts of everyone but I decided to only talk about who I find to be very suspicious.
Ashtot.
Something seems off about him this game to me. Looking through his posts, I find it strange how many people he voted for and thought should be lynched. He starts with a vote on SP
Then he changes to Yui-Z.
Then he says Alise or Kaden should be lynched.
Now he goes to Ryan88? Wtf.
Then he ultimately changes back to SP. He agrees with SP about Yui, and thinks his reasoning is solid. Ash even says he doesn't think it's worth lynching an active town player was worth it - yet he changes back to Sp without giving any reason?
The one thing I notice about Ash as scum is that he kind of gets mad about being accused (or overly defensive), so I checked back through some past games where he was scum to compare with how he's acting now. (For reference, post 954 & post 998) In Faithful June, when Ashtot was accused of not contributing much, guess what he did? He got mad, accusing Oath of being less useful and claimed he himself was in fact contributing and acting very pro town. Does that sound familiar? Probably because something similar just happened in this game.
I mean, it's almost the same. First he defends himself and then his brother. He usually defends his brother, but you have to admit that it is interesting how similar his replies have been to when he was scum. The way he's replied this game is essentially the same as the way he did from Faithful June; Gets mad that he was accused of not contributing much, throws Oath under the bus, defends his brother and continues to assert Oath wasn't doing squat. Here's some other examples from how he has reacted as scum: Here, here. In Sunleth Waterson Mafia, Ashtot in one day voted for the following people in this order: Prin, MewMewMewm, JelloFishXD, Superpenguin, back to Prin and finally Ryan88. Need I mention how many people he's voted for in this game?
Ashtot has only been scum 3 times out of the 20 games he's been in so far, and I think the way he's been this game is exceptionally similar to the way he acted as scum. To further my point, I decided to check through some games where he was town for comparison. I can't be bothered to bring up more posts because I've worked on this for almost 1:30 minutes, but I looked through the more recent games (Portal mafia, XCOM mafia, and then there were none). All of you can look through those games yourselves, but he definitely behaved differently in those games. Like, when he was accused of something or people said they were suspicious of him, he was a lot calmer than as scum.
Finally, we have this. I think the above is absolutely ridiculous. He jumps with Karla in the ridiculous idea that simply because we misspelled the word, that somehow makes our claim doubtful. Seriously? And then he says Nymph doesn't seem like something that would be in this game. Lol. I'm a mermaid, Trundle is a kelpie. Both of those are mythological creatures, so Cory being a nymph isn't exactly that weird. I think third parties with harmless win conditions are prime targets for mafia to make appear suspicious, especially in a closed setup like this because 1) we can't prove we are actually third parties unless we are inspected and 2) it would be relatively easy to instill doubt into people's minds because of reason 1.
So yeah, I find Ashtot incredibly suspicious. I spent 2 hours on this altogether so if someone says I haven't put any effort into the game at all I will flip a table.
I was gonna make a post listing my thoughts of everyone but I decided to only talk about who I find to be very suspicious.
Ashtot.
Something seems off about him this game to me. Looking through his posts, I find it strange how many people he voted for and thought should be lynched. He starts with a vote on SP
Then he changes to Yui-Z.
Then he says Alise or Kaden should be lynched.
Now he goes to Ryan88? Wtf.
Then he ultimately changes back to SP. He agrees with SP about Yui, and thinks his reasoning is solid. Ash even says he doesn't think it's worth lynching an active town player was worth it - yet he changes back to Sp without giving any reason?
The one thing I notice about Ash as scum is that he kind of gets mad about being accused (or overly defensive), so I checked back through some past games where he was scum to compare with how he's acting now. (For reference, post 954 & post 998) In Faithful June, when Ashtot was accused of not contributing much, guess what he did? He got mad, accusing Oath of being less useful and claimed he himself was in fact contributing and acting very pro town. Does that sound familiar? Probably because something similar just happened in this game.
I mean, it's almost the same. First he defends himself and then his brother. He usually defends his brother, but you have to admit that it is interesting how similar his replies have been to when he was scum. The way he's replied this game is essentially the same as the way he did from Faithful June; Gets mad that he was accused of not contributing much, throws Oath under the bus, defends his brother and continues to assert Oath wasn't doing squat. Here's some other examples from how he has reacted as scum: Here, here. In Sunleth Waterson Mafia, Ashtot in one day voted for the following people in this order: Prin, MewMewMewm, JelloFishXD, Superpenguin, back to Prin and finally Ryan88. Need I mention how many people he's voted for in this game?
Ashtot has only been scum 3 times out of the 20 games he's been in so far, and I think the way he's been this game is exceptionally similar to the way he acted as scum. To further my point, I decided to check through some games where he was town for comparison. I can't be bothered to bring up more posts because I've worked on this for almost 1:30 minutes, but I looked through the more recent games (Portal mafia, XCOM mafia, and then there were none). All of you can look through those games yourselves, but he definitely behaved differently in those games. Like, when he was accused of something or people said they were suspicious of him, he was a lot calmer than as scum.
Finally, we have this. I think the above is absolutely ridiculous. He jumps with Karla in the ridiculous idea that simply because we misspelled the word, that somehow makes our claim doubtful. Seriously? And then he says Nymph doesn't seem like something that would be in this game. Lol. I'm a mermaid, Trundle is a kelpie. Both of those are mythological creatures, so Cory being a nymph isn't exactly that weird. I think third parties with harmless win conditions are prime targets for mafia to make appear suspicious, especially in a closed setup like this because 1) we can't prove we are actually third parties unless we are inspected and 2) it would be relatively easy to instill doubt into people's minds because of reason 1.
So yeah, I find Ashtot incredibly suspicious. I spent 2 hours on this altogether so if someone says I haven't put any effort into the game at all I will flip a table.
