The new villagers HAVE to have a higher chance of appearing right?

[Verecund]

I haven't gone on any Nook Mile tours post-update yet (and the only camper I got post-update was Spike), but I really don't think there's a higher chance of them appearing. There are 16 newly added villagers and there are usually 398 possibilties (407 total villagers minus nine that are currently living on your island after one moves out), so the new villagers take up roughly 4% (one in 25) of the overall roster. If we calculate the probability of getting any of the 16 new or returning villagers based on the fact that species is selected first and then we have an equal chance of choosing any member within that species, we get approximately a 4.6% chance of finding a new or returning villager on any given ticket (assuming my math is correct :P)

Using that probability, we exceed a 50% chance of finding at least one new or returning villager after 15 tickets and a 50% chance of finding at least two within 37 tickets. If you go through 100 tickets, there's a 68% chance of finding at least 4 villagers, a 49% chance of finding at least 5, and a 1.7% chance of finding at least 10, so you can get them with a relatively high frequency without it being too abnormal.

That being said, I'd like if we had a higher chance for the new ones because I'd love to get Sasha, Ione, and most of the others (especially since it took me 213 tickets to find my first of the 8 original new villagers on a NMT island, although I did have Judy on my island at the time I used 75 of those tickets so the odds would have been slightly lower), but I'd be very surprised if that was the case.

 

[Berrymia]

It might be random but I found Sasha and then Ione both within 80 tickets! I’d be interested to hear from others what their villager hunt experience were like since the update!

 

[Plainbluetees]

I don’t understand how everyone has such amazing luck. 120 tickets later and I’ve only run into Cephalobot and Zoe. On top of that I have three smug villagers right now because Eugene and his raymond wannabe house won’t get the thought bubble…

 

[Underneath The Stars]

why do i actually believe this?
i never haunt for villagers anymore, but even before this thread people all over twitter are claiming to always meet the new villagers! and that was surprising considering how painful it was to look for Judy, Sherb etc...

 

[That Marshal Fangirl]

I am inclined to agree that the new villagers are more likely to appear, since I only used about 22 NMT and ran into Azalea, Cephalobot, and Ione. I don't really island hop for villagers, so I don't have a reference for finding a different villager like Raymond. That being said, the little bit I did a few days ago yielded a surprising amount of new villagers in very few NMT.