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Villager cycling/move-out question

telluric

rowdy lass
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So I've been doing some villager cycling/holding/other stuff that just involves certain villagers needing to move out. I've noticed some things and I wanted to see if this was a common thing of if my RNG was just bad.

If you get villager A to move-in, and immediately try to cycle them out, are their odds for pinging to move out lower than they would be if say, villager A moved in, then a villager B moving out? Basically, you have another villager move out after village A moves in, THEN try to cycle them out. While I'm sure it's possible to get them to ping, but does anyone know how RNG might factor into this, or do they all have the same odds of pinging no matter how long they've been there.

For example, Jambette was a random move-in into an empty plot that came from somebody's void. I immediately tried to cycle her out because I was going to be accepting someone else from a trade. After a while of TTing, she would NOT ping and eventually I moved out someone else to accept the villager from my trade. Eventually, I got her out later on with someone from the campsite.

Sorry if this is a basic question, I never ever cycled in games like new leaf so I'm a bit unfamiliar with how the RNG works here. Any insight/experiences is appreciated!
 
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