These are my various thoughts on people. This will both indirectly and sometimes directly address some of the points raised against me or my analysis, or simply supersede prior analysis I have already given.
Speaking of Jacob, the only positions he stated before dying were scumleans on unravel and me, and a townlean on dad. I don't believe he gave a reason on unravel but he didn't like my "dad fixation," which I have already addressed before.
Townleans: Punchy, Dad, Damniel, Temptations
Null: unravel
Scumleans: Farobi, Vampnessa, Dolby
Nobody cares because they'll die anyway: Delphine. Probably vanilla townie R I P
Possible scumteams in order of likelihood: Dolby/Vanessa, Vampnessa/Farobi, Dolby/Vampnessa/Farobi, Farobi/unravel, Delphine/some poor chap or lass in my scumreads stuck with an inactive.
Damniel has proven himself imo. What I felt was sketchy at the start has been superseded by generally solid participation and content as time has gone on. And I don't see him as super compatible with Vampnessa or Farobi, could maybe see him with Dolby but I think Vampnessa is a much more likely teammate, which I explain later on.
Punchy's doing everything I would expect him to do as town.
Dad and Vampnessa are wholly incompatible and likely on different teams and I'm betting, for now, that Dad is the town. Call it buddying all you want but I really don't see scummy behavior from him.
Vampnessa, on the other hand, strikes me as fairly scummy. I said she was an easy target because she does come under a lot of pressure most games, whatever her alignment. But after seeing her behavior and interactions with Dolby in particular, I feel I may have figured this out.
I'll say it: while I agree with some of your points against Evan I also think you're cherrypicking. The whole post in general came off to me as trying too hard to find reasons to sus him. I know you always make big posts but I can't remember if you're always this tunnely, I need to cross-reference (and I also need to cross-reference Punchy and Antonio still but I'm too lazy)
This beaut right here smacks of straddling lines. "Yeah I think you may have some good points on Evan but you're going too hard lol just chill bro." Like wtf? Seems very much like she's trying to gain my confidence by putting up a facade of disagreement with Dolby, but also trying to not put off Dolby too much by saying he has good points. Like really if you think his points are correct then
you should probably be voting me by now, not reacting like "oh they may be right but it's a reach." Really? If it's a reach then
the points are not right to begin with. The phrasing makes little sense.
Honestly Dolby/Vampnessa as as scumteam is not only terrifying but likely, given just how much blatantly fake interaction I see between them. It seems pretty similar to what Dolby and I pulled off as scums in Hunger Games mafia, where we carefully tiptoed between agreement and disagreement throughout the game (ie not getting confrontational but avoiding each other almost), then when the time was right just start tunnelling the **** out of each other. Vampy and Dolby obviously haven't gotten to the "tunnelling the **** out of each other" part since it's early game, but there is definitely something weird going on between them. Makes perfect sense why Dolby would latch on to me and practically ignore Vampy in his analysis and sneak her into his nulls.
Dolby's line about "townreading Jacob ain't gonna make me townread you" does feel overly dismissive and antagonistic when I knew my point was lameass anyway. It was a throwaway "RIP Jacob" line and I didn't want to air my townlean hunch until after N0.
Also, his reason for TRing Antonio is just bullcrap. You can't TR someone because you think someone else is wrong
Yeah I can? Whether you think it's right or not, I don't think you can completely discount the logic. Punchy's read is likely wrong; therefore Antonio is likely town. Frankly it's hard to find much Antonio has done that is directly town-beneficial but I am basing my read on instinct and what I know about how he plays. Punchy was just pointing things out that, in a vacuum may make him look scummy, but entirely lines up with what I know about Antonio's town play. Sorry if you don’t like that but *shrugs*
Vampnessa is technically right in that Dolby does seem to make some good points that, when ignoring context of this game, makes me look bad. However she lacks the reasoning/does not go the extra step to actually form a conclusion about me, and that sets off my alarm bells. And my conclusion is this: I think it's pretty clear Dolby is trying to off me because he knows I'm really town. And since he's always good at making a case for practically anything, he dove through what I "usually" do to that end. Problem is that I'm waking up to that reality and not everyone else really believes him either given how tunnelly and reachy it is. I’m focusing more on scums this game given how there’s less of them to go around, and the towns are frankly rather obvious and half of them (Punchy, Temptations) are not playing very optimally in my view because they’re wrapped around the axle trying to destroy each other.
Now I know everyone and their grandma is going to paint this as me OMGUSing Dolby because he susses me, and Dolby is going to look at how much more analysis I gave on who’s scum vs. who’s town. But I do think that him being scum is a palpable explanation for the Dolby/Vampnessa behavior and I need to flesh out my thought process why. If I was really OMGUS'ing then I'd have scumread him after he started diatribing against me.
The one hole in my Dolby read is how he's interacting with Farobi atm. I don't see much reason for scum!Dolby to off Farobi OVER me right now, especially given how much Dolby's focused on me. This opens up the possibility of Farobi not being scum and there being only two scums on the maf team, OR perhaps Dolby just views Farobi as too big of a liability and would use the death as cred to get me out the following vote? Not sure. Either way I think that with the lack of a clear town leader post-Jacob, Dolby's trying to slyly fill that void.
Farobi/unravel is a fairly unlikely pairing in my sight due to them going after each other. It doesn't feel coordinated or distancing since unravel has been casting doubt on Farobi ever since he was inactive at the start. Unravel remains a big fat null for me tbh. If they were really a team, I can't see them pulling off such distancing through the course of the entire game. My farobi read is admittedly the most piggybacky of my positions but I generally agree that what he's done so far has just been blatantly meh and trying to please everyone instead of actually trying to find scums.
The problem is, are there two scums or three? In a game of 11, with the switching powers maf has, an 8-3 split vs. a 9-2 split...honestly both are feasible.
My vote is probably going on Vampnessa or Farobi this phase, leaning much more towards Vampnessa though. And when she flips scum, you can bet Dolby should be next.
I’ve been writing this awhile so if you want me to address anything in particular, feel free to hmu/quote relevant portions.
