Do you think we start with one jock and one uchi villager?

Cheerious said:
I'd put it as a coincidence. It'd be very odd for it to be that specific, since you're getting ~40/50 options instead of all the others. Bad idea.
Not a major setback, though.
Click to expand...

I'm sorry but we're way past the point of it being coincidence.

We've seen the following uchi/jock combos, as MKInfinite compiled:
1. Tammy & Bill (Sept Direct)
2. Cherry & Buck (Feb Direct)
3. Tammy & Kid Cat (Feb Direct)
4. Canberra & Drift (Feb Direct)
5. Hazel & Hamlet (IGN preview)
6. Mira & Biff (Eurogamer preview)
7. Flo & Genji (Gamesradar preview)
8. Mira & Mac (GameInformer preview)
9. Katt & Sly (Pax East)

Plus these which seem to follow the pattern:
10. Pashmina & new sheep (Pax East)
11. new horse & Antonio (Pax East)

I know we don't know exactly how many villagers will be in this game, but just to demonstrate the math, there are 472 villagers total that have been in AC games, 224 female (71 Normal, 65 Peppy, 65 Snooty, 23 Uchi) and 248 male (63 Cranky, 76 Jock, 74 Lazy, 35 Smug).

The chance of picking an Uchi out of all females is 23/224, and of picking Jock out of all males is 76/248. Assuming we always start with 1 male and 1 female, the chance of picking both together is given by multiplying the two together = 0.03147 aka. 3% chance.

But we've seen 9 in a row that have that combination. The chance of getting the same 2 personalities together 9 times in a row is given by multiplying its likelihood that many times (or raising it to that power) = (0.03147)^9 = 3.0274 x 10^-14 aka. 0.000000000003% chance.

Plus we've also seen another Uchi (23/224) and another Jock (76/248) in combination with villagers we can't confirm. So multiply those rates on to the end = 9.5x10^-16 = 0.0000000000001% chance.

I think I've calculated that right. That's the likelihood that it would happen purely by coincidence.
 
jiojiop said:
I'm sorry but we're way past the point of it being coincidence.

We've seen the following uchi/jock combos, as MKInfinite compiled:
1. Tammy & Bill (Sept Direct)
2. Cherry & Buck (Feb Direct)
3. Tammy & Kid Cat (Feb Direct)
4. Canberra & Drift (Feb Direct)
5. Hazel & Hamlet (IGN preview)
6. Mira & Biff (Eurogamer preview)
7. Flo & Genji (Gamesradar preview)
8. Mira & Mac (GameInformer preview)
9. Katt & Sly (Pax East)

Plus these which seem to follow the pattern:
10. Pashmina & new sheep (Pax East)
11. new horse & Antonio (Pax East)

I know we don't know exactly how many villagers will be in this game, but just to demonstrate the math, there are 472 villagers total that have been in AC games, 224 female (71 Normal, 65 Peppy, 65 Snooty, 23 Uchi) and 248 male (63 Cranky, 76 Jock, 74 Lazy, 35 Smug).

The chance of picking an Uchi out of all females is 23/224, and of picking Jock out of all males is 76/248. Assuming we always start with 1 male and 1 female, the chance of picking both together is given by multiplying the two together = 0.03147 aka. 3% chance.

But we've seen 9 in a row that have that combination. The chance of getting the same 2 personalities together 9 times in a row is given by multiplying its likelihood that many times (or raising it to that power) = (0.03147)^9 = 3.0274 x 10^-14 aka. 0.000000000003% chance.

Plus we've also seen another Uchi (23/224) and another Jock (76/248) in combination with villagers we can't confirm. So multiply those rates on to the end = 9.5x10^-16 = 0.0000000000001% chance.

I think I've calculated that right. That's the likelihood that it would happen purely by coincidence.
Click to expand...

This is the kind of analysis that I live for. It looks like we do end up starting like this.
 
jiojiop said:
I'm sorry but we're way past the point of it being coincidence.

We've seen the following uchi/jock combos, as MKInfinite compiled:
1. Tammy & Bill (Sept Direct)
2. Cherry & Buck (Feb Direct)
3. Tammy & Kid Cat (Feb Direct)
4. Canberra & Drift (Feb Direct)
5. Hazel & Hamlet (IGN preview)
6. Mira & Biff (Eurogamer preview)
7. Flo & Genji (Gamesradar preview)
8. Mira & Mac (GameInformer preview)
9. Katt & Sly (Pax East)

Plus these which seem to follow the pattern:
10. Pashmina & new sheep (Pax East)
11. new horse & Antonio (Pax East)

I know we don't know exactly how many villagers will be in this game, but just to demonstrate the math, there are 472 villagers total that have been in AC games, 224 female (71 Normal, 65 Peppy, 65 Snooty, 23 Uchi) and 248 male (63 Cranky, 76 Jock, 74 Lazy, 35 Smug).

The chance of picking an Uchi out of all females is 23/224, and of picking Jock out of all males is 76/248. Assuming we always start with 1 male and 1 female, the chance of picking both together is given by multiplying the two together = 0.03147 aka. 3% chance.

But we've seen 9 in a row that have that combination. The chance of getting the same 2 personalities together 9 times in a row is given by multiplying its likelihood that many times (or raising it to that power) = (0.03147)^9 = 3.0274 x 10^-14 aka. 0.000000000003% chance.

Plus we've also seen another Uchi (23/224) and another Jock (76/248) in combination with villagers we can't confirm. So multiply those rates on to the end = 9.5x10^-16 = 0.0000000000001% chance.

I think I've calculated that right. That's the likelihood that it would happen purely by coincidence.
Click to expand...

Math looks right to me? At least when I double check it with google, it comes out correct.

But yeah, we're way past coincidence now.
 
Damn. Well that kinda kills all the plans I had for the starters I wanted, since they're supposedly supposed to be your "besties" I really wanted to get at least one of my ultimate faves. But at least I won't get Barold as a starter now!!!! That is beautiful news. I just wish I could say the same about Canberra.
 
For all the people who aren't thrilled with this, don't worry! We've only seen a few new villagers, so there could be a bunch of new jock/uchi villagers to choose from! You might even find one you actually want, so anyone who's planning on resetting for good villagers might have more options than they realize.
 
Here's who I'm hoping for :D : (Bold = most preferred)
Uchi - Cherry, Deirdre, Fuchsia, Mira, Hazel, Pashmina, Agnes, Paula, Plucky, Shari, or somebody new (like Reneigh?) (:)
Jock - Antonio, Bill, Billy, Bud, Drift, Genji, Pierce, Poncho, Peck, Roald, Rudy, Scoot, Sly, Snake, Sprocket, Stinky, or somebody new/somebody possibly returning like Tarou, Woolio, Shoukichi, Quetzal, Iggy, Hambo, Hank, Gen, Ace, or Aziz :)
 
Last edited:
More official media released, and further confirms we start with an Uchi and Jock villager.

Deidre (Uchi) and Louie (Jock):

uchijock.jpg
 
Khaelis said:
More official media released, and further confirms we start with an Uchi and Jock villager.

Deidre (Uchi) and Louie (Jock):

View attachment 231709
Click to expand...

I think that at this point it is basically confirmed. In that case I hope I start with either Canberra, Deirdre or Agnes as an uchi and Tad or Poncho as a jock. Maybe I new villager I'd like too
 
My luck I'll get a penguin jock, who'll spend all night talking about sport, which I loathe almost as much as clowns, and I'll have to craft some bait, chum the waters, dive in and pray for a shark attack, just to escape the jock/sport vortex. O_O
 
Khaelis said:
More official media released, and further confirms we start with an Uchi and Jock villager.
Deidre (Uchi) and Louie (Jock):
View attachment 231709
Click to expand...

aah, i came here to say the same thing.
well.. i'm gonna still cross my fingers & my toes that it's to keep certain villagers hidden.. but..
i can just hope that i get cherry & bam :lemon:
 
I honestly DON'T want any of the starting villagers to be ones that I want in my town. If I can't move their house later, that is. Regardless of type, although I only have one specific Uchi I want and I'm still not sure about a Jock.
 
The Hidden Owl said:
I honestly DON'T want any of the starting villagers to be ones that I want in my town. If I can't move their house later, that is. Regardless of type, although I only have one specific Uchi I want and I'm still not sure about a Jock.
Click to expand...

I think we can move the starter houses. They will give you their tent and you can find a location for them.

Jock/uchi thing could be a development build for the promos although it’s looking too coincidental to be otherwise! Since I’m guessing the stuff they are showing are basically the completed game. I don’t mind though. Jocks are one of my favourite personalities :’ ) There’s not many Uchis I like but we’ll be able to move the villagers around anyways. Of course, it would be cool if we start with a villager we actually like because of the sentimentality, but starters have never been a concern for me at all in any game.
 
this annoys me because it's so limiting and i'm not really a fan of most of the jock/uchi villagers. hopefully i get teddy or fuschia or something. hmm.
 
Well, since we seem to be starting with a jock and an uchi villager, I hope that we can take the time to bond with them and discover that we might enjoy that personality type. Maybe they will be a bit different this game with the dialogue?

I understand the dislike for both types. Uchi rubbed me the wrong way at first and jocks annoyed me until I started bonding with them. Now I quite like them and I love that we get to start with a jock and an uchi.
 
jekabu said:
I agree! I think this'll be a good opportunity to get to know different types of villagers to what we're used to. Giving less loved personalities a chance might be refreshing.
Click to expand...

I agree with this! It is, after all, how you end up loving your favourite villagers in the first place: by having them in your town.
 
Kristen said:
I agree with this! It is, after all, how you end up loving your favourite villagers in the first place: by having them in your town.
Click to expand...

I super agree! I started off hating Velma strictly based on her looks. If I never interacted with her, then she wouldn't have become one of my favorite villagers. It will be like that for all villagers. And I have a feeling the two we start with (for some of us) will become some of our most loved villagers because of the fact we are starting out on a deserted island so it will just be the three of us and the Nook family.
 
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