459 NMT Island Encounters. Here's the data I collected.

[Lavamaize]

So, I set out to hunt for Audie and Raymond via NMTs. I decided to write down every villager I encountered just because I thought it would be fun. There are a few things I wish I kept track of, like the date & time in game but eh.

I did 459 trips to different islands.

Of the 459 trips, this is the data which personalities I encountered the most and which villager of that personality as well;

View attachment 242609​

This is the data for each gender, I am not at all surprised for the highest male/female villagers I encountered;

View attachment 242610​

This is the data for every species + most common villager I met as well;

View attachment 242611

So, did I encounter Audie and Raymond on the islands? Nope! Not once! Audie ended up being gifted to me and Raymond was acquired via the campsite trick. I want to thank everyone on the TBT discord who sat around with me for a few days while I hunted those two down. The information I collected was fun, I'm stuck at home due to COVID19 and needed something to keep my brain going.

I have a document with more information here; it includes the list of every villager I met on every run I did.

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Im just curious, how did you get all those nook miles? I wish I had that many to island hop!

Also, I really love seeing all the stats!

 

[ChocolateShiba]

I sold Judy and a few other villagers to hoard all of them lol

Post automatically merged: Apr 15, 2020

What is the campsite trick?

Explained this in a comment prior.

 

[Bk1234]

Explained this in a comment prior.

Oh ok, I didn't see. Thanks.

 

[ctar17]

One question I'm curious about is:

When you took your data, were you missing any of the personality types? The two times I've gone island hopping when I've just been down 1 personality type, it seems that I do not see the missing personality at all!

Took me 15+ for a snooty, 20+ for a peppy before I gave up and adopted a Peppy.

 

[gldawn]

Find a day when a camper comes to your island (Isabelle tells you). Go see who the camper is. If it's someone you want, invite them. If not, either way you're going to TT ahead one week, I personally would join and save since it's enough time for a villager to ask to move. Then TT day by day and wait for Isabelle to say there's another camper. You don't have to join and save every day, if she doesn't say there's a camper just force quit. If she does, go see who it is. Same as before, if it's someone you want, invite them, if not just save and quit and repeat the TTing a week and then day by day. It took me a few hours vs. few days I had been going to find Raymond.

This is helpful to know! Just curious, did you have another smug villager on your island when you did this?

 

[toonafeesh]

Does it matter what style of clothes you're wearing? My friend has been testing this theory out a little bit and attracted a lot of normal villagers while wearing the after school jacket and snooty/cranky villagers with the glasses vest Raymond wears (forgot what they're called)

She had a limited number of tickets though so not as extensive as this one haha

 

[Miqo]

My very first island when I started the game, the free ticket you're given actually gave me Audie. Part of me regrets starting over, but having a nicer island and decent layout kinda made it okay. If I saw her again, I'd grab her in a heartbeat.

 

[ctar17]

posted this in another thread, but it makes sense to post here as well:

I think as far as the repeat villager pattern:

You do have to keep in mind that the more islands you go to, the more different villagers you see, and therefore there is a higher chance that you see one you've already seen on your next island due to the pool of villagers you haven't seen becoming smaller with each new one you see.

It's analogous to the Birthday Paradox in that the odds of 2 people in a room having the same birthday are about 50% when there's just 23 people in the room. As you add each person going up from 1 person in the room, the pool of birthdays that no one has yet gets smaller and smaller each time, and it reaches 50% quickly, at 23 people. There are 366 possible birthdays.
here's an article on the Birthday Paradox: https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-birthday-paradox/
I used the site and put in the number of villagers (391) instead and got that there is a 50% of a repeat at 24 islands if it's pure RNG.

The 24 number seems awfully low, but that's how the Birthday Paradox works... The more islands you go to, the higher the chance of seeing a repeat.

 

[Flare]

Did you talk to the villagers every time they appeared? I noticed after talking to them I wouldn’t find them again. Not sure if it was pure luck though since Sandy appeared twice.

 

[Calysis]

Did you talk to the villagers every time they appeared? I noticed after talking to them I wouldn’t find them again. Not sure if it was pure luck though since Sandy appeared twice.

I spoke to Marina the first time I seen her on an island because I had her previously as a random move-in and voided her (turns out my bf got her from my void, lmao) and I was curious if she would remember me (she didn't). The very next ticket I used I seen her again - so I seen her twice in a row. I don't believe speaking to them makes it more likely that you won't see them for awhile.

 

[Flare]

I spoke to Marina the first time I seen her on an island because I had her previously as a random move-in and voided her (turns out my bf got her from my void, lmao) and I was curious if she would remember me (she didn't). The very next ticket I used I seen her again - so I seen her twice in a row. I don't believe speaking to them makes it more likely that you won't see them for awhile.

Oh I guess I just got lucky then. Thank you for letting me know.

 

[AccfSally]

How do you guys get so many tickets? I can barely get 5.

 

[Corrie]

This is actually really cool! Thanks for spending the time to do this and put it together for us!

It really puts the NMTs and random islands in perspective of how RNG can be mean lol.

 

[Sanaki]

Man that's pretty depressing results imo. :c but thank you for compiling it for us! I noticed Octavian is a really frequent find.

 

[mizzsnow]

Ouch, and my hands got tired at 70 tickets ):

I wonder if there's something that influence the species of villager you get? I know I got a ton of frog and tiger villagers meanwhile I didn't see a single cat (so that's why I gave up on Raymond early). Or it's just my luck being super bad

 

[trashpedia]

Wow, that's a lot of NMTs 0-0 I don't think I'll ever earn that many.....
Also I don't I'll ever get Raymond unless it's through amiibo knowing how horrible my luck is.

Anyways, those results are truly interesting though. Screw RNG.

 

[ChocolateShiba]

One question I'm curious about is:

When you took your data, were you missing any of the personality types? The two times I've gone island hopping when I've just been down 1 personality type, it seems that I do not see the missing personality at all!

Took me 15+ for a snooty, 20+ for a peppy before I gave up and adopted a Peppy.

I was mostly hunting for Audie, didn't have a peppy. I did have Marshal at the time.

Post automatically merged: Apr 15, 2020

This is helpful to know! Just curious, did you have another smug villager on your island when you did this?

I kicked Marshal out before doing this.

Post automatically merged: Apr 15, 2020

Does it matter what style of clothes you're wearing? My friend has been testing this theory out a little bit and attracted a lot of normal villagers while wearing the after school jacket and snooty/cranky villagers with the glasses vest Raymond wears (forgot what they're called)

She had a limited number of tickets though so not as extensive as this one haha

I didn't test with clothes. My normal outfit is the crown (1mil one), colorful striped sweater, nook miles backpack, black rimmed glasses, privacy mask, colorful flower socks and hightops

Post automatically merged: Apr 15, 2020

How do you guys get so many tickets? I can barely get 5.

Sold a lot of villagers. Also bought them off people for 100k/ticket. I still have 200~ left.

Post automatically merged: Apr 15, 2020

Ouch, and my hands got tired at 70 tickets ):

I wonder if there's something that influence the species of villager you get? I know I got a ton of frog and tiger villagers meanwhile I didn't see a single cat (so that's why I gave up on Raymond early). Or it's just my luck being super bad

I wish I experimented more but there's no real baseline to go off of :/

 

[Miss Misty]

My RNG has been similar but just as bad/uninspiring. It feels like the game hacked into my brain and has been giving me my - if I mentally ranked them - top 100 least favorite villagers on repeat. Getting someone I find even remotely passable has been like pulling teeth.

 

[Farobi]

I too got an octopus, Marina, from the islands after just a few encounters. Odd that octopuses appear more frequently compared to others, but maybe it's their few numbers that skew the results their way as a way to equalize the odds?

 

[Saga]

Oh noooo, I can't believe what poor RNG you had! ;_; I can't believe you didn't find who you wanted even after that many tickets.

I seems like it really is down to pure luck.