Just to preface, I want to say that these are general thoughts and not necessarily accusations (yet). I'm writing this down because this is the best way I can think to contribute and because I honestly want to have a conversation to try and figure this out.
Alright, let's start with the obvious:
Toad led the wagon on our detective. In fact he had been sussing her since Day One. Now, unless Toad is just that good, I can't imagine he knew he was going after the detective even if he is mafia.
If he really is wolf, I imagine he picked a person who'd done a soft accusation but never really followed through and just tunneled on that. The fact that she ended up being the detective seems like dumb luck.
But, like I said yesterday before casting my vote, he honestly sounded like he's town and trying to figure things out and he made a very convincing argument (which could just be some good acting on his part).
Also, I want to say that regardless of what we do with this, we all are responsible for our own votes. Toad did not force anyone's hand, and if we are to vote him based on this, I'd like it to be after hearing his side and not blindly revenge-voting. After all, we don't get another chance.
To be honest, for me the most suspicious thing was that, despite switching his vote on Day One after Catharina's snipe, on Day Two he kept insisting on Misty despite outright calling Catharina sus. In addition, he's the only person consistently calling Tessa town from the get go (or bleeding town, whatever that means).
Now, Catharina on the other hand, has been sus since her incredible snipe, and it's very likely that if the Misty wagon hadn't happened, she would have been the one to go yesterday. I'm personally not fully convinced by her reasoning, and most of her following posts has been reiterating information that had already been said by others.
To be fair, a lot of that could be a result of inexperience (something I know all too well) and the one post of hers that made be truly doubt if she's mafia was the one where she answered Toad about "how the night was for her". I don't know that that's enough to convince me (especially since if she and Toad are a pair they could have staged it), but it's more than enough to give me pause.
Tessa is the strangest case for me. She had a rocky beginning and was sussed for no particular reason, and then had a rollercoaster of votes and debates (mostly with Dino). Now, as I said before, that only made me think that she was floundering trying to navigate being new at this game while being hard sussed for something she couldn't really defend against. It's her following silence that's strange to me. Despite being rather verbal at the first day and a half, we've hardly heard from her since, even when she voted on Misty she said she would explain and then didn't.
If I'm being honest I don't know what to do with this information. It's for sure kinda sus, but at the same time I understand where she's coming from.
I'm still mostly neutral about Ace. It seems like he's been mostly chilling, never really hard accusing anyone until just now. I don't want to say he's town because I can see him just kinda laying low until the last possible moment. And, while I know his claim of me being town is correct, it could also be an attempt at marinating me, so I'm a bit wary.
As for pairings, the one that seems most likely to me right know is Toad/Catharina for reasons stated above.
Toad/Tessa is another possibility, with him trying to take eyes away from her, both by soft clearing her and by telling her to lay low.
Ace/Toad is possible but, I think, unlikely. Or at least it's unlikely that we'll win if that's the pair.
Ace/Tessa seems more possible than Ace/Catharina, but I'm not really sold on either of those.
Catharina/Tessa is a possibility I suppose, and if it's them, they deserve massive kudos for making it this far while both being heavily sussed for most of the game.
So, yeah, I'm mostly leaning towards Toad/Catharina right now.
One thing before I stop talking:
I went back and looked at the posts Misty made on Day Two (when she would have had the results from her first investigation). All I got was that she initially sussed Tessa and then ended up voting Catharina. She didn't provide any information beyond what had already been said, so make of that what will. It could very well mean nothing.
I'm not voting yet. I don't want to get in my own head and rush this. I want to hear what you guys have to say before making a decision. After all, my track record isn't that great since all I've done so far is talk a bunch, try (and fail) to figure out who the mafia members are, and ultimately vote to murder a townie. Also, I'd really prefer not to write something this big again.
I hope my ovethinking and excessive use of commas helps us win this.
