I wanna get a specific villager to move into my town and I feel as if I won't have much luck with villager trading, so I was contemplating grinding out nook miles and getting a bunch of tickets for island trips. Is it worth the grind of nook miles to go on multiple island trips searching for one guy?
How successful are multiple island trips for villager searching?
- Thread starter Spongebob
- Start date
I find it pretty fun and useful. You get to experience the thrill of discovering an animal you never thought you'd like (I met Nana twice, and i just couldn't let her go after that). Also, if you don't like the villager you can farm the island for resources. I think it's totally worth it.
TheMariqua
Ambrosia, you calling me an Hamster?
You forgot to mention that not every trip guarantees that there'll be an animal on the island.
And that you can find the same villager multiple times.
That's still a 1/391 chance per ticket either way, if every island had a villager.
I'm pretty sure every island has a villager as long as you have a plot open. If that not correct?
If you have a plot open and have not recruited a villager yet that day, every island will have a villager.
That doesn't affect the 1/391 odds, that's not how odds work :V Every island has a 1/391 chance of having each villager. That means that if you use one ticket, you have equal odds of finding the one you're looking for, or finding the same one you found on your last ticket. It doesn't mean you'll see each villager once if you search 400 times.
thelonewanderer
Senior Member
I haven't been to a mystery in 5 days. Went on my first one today and I found Bianca and hybrid flower island again! My luck with mystery island is pretty good. Bianca is not a dreamy of mine but she is very close, could end up being one.
I found all the villagers in my signature aside from Diana, Lobo, and Julian. It took me about 400-ish tickets since the game came out. Kinda depends on your luck and rng, imo. I'd say if you're looking for one villager in particular, it's probably not worth it unless you have a ton of tickets at your disposal. You're probably better off hoping you can find them through trading/buying an amiibo if available. If you have a list of villagers you'd be okay with, it's definitely worth it imo.
edit: fixed my maths. Sorry it's 4 AM also, words hard.
The probability of getting the villager in one try is around 0.25%.
The probability of not getting the villager in one try is 99.75%.
In two tries the probability of getting the villager is (100% - (97.5% times 97.5%)) In other words, 100% - (99.75%)^2. We can extrapolate that to be
[Probability of getting the villager in N tries] = 100% - (97.75%)^N.
The probability of getting a villager in 100 times = 100% - (97.75%)^N, which is 100% - 77.8557%, or around 23%.
The probability of getting the villager in one try is around 0.25%.
The probability of not getting the villager in one try is 99.75%.
In two tries the probability of getting the villager is (100% - (97.5% times 97.5%)) In other words, 100% - (99.75%)^2. We can extrapolate that to be
[Probability of getting the villager in N tries] = 100% - (97.75%)^N.
The probability of getting a villager in 100 times = 100% - (97.75%)^N, which is 100% - 77.8557%, or around 23%.
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senbeiiscool
Could you pass the senbei?
It's fun the first few times around, but unless you have good luck, I found that I preferred to save my tickets for trades instead!
I would only consider doing this for any of the 10 new villagers who do not have amiibo cards since I have a pretty good collection I am able to save a lot of time just inviting my favorites to my campsite. This method is not very affordable for newer players so I hope they reprint all of the cards soon.
CitrusCakes
art-school trash
It's easier to avoid disappointment when you go on Nook Miles trips to find a cute animal in general, as opposed to searching for ONE specific villager. I just found Flora and was very excited to ask her to move to my island, even though I entirely forgot she existed beforehand lol. I'd say to keep your hopes high, but don't ignore all the other cute villagers out there waiting for a home, too.
I've had great luck so far, but I also think I've been unusually fortunate. I have a list of 20 or so villagers I want, and so far I've found three.
After three tickets, I found Marina.
After two tickets, I found Flora.
After two tickets, I found Tangy.
There was only one time when I was villager-hunting and didn't find anyone good. I used five tickets, didn't find anyone I liked, and gave up since I didn't have any more Nook miles. (It was early on in the game).
So, for me, so far it has been well worth it. Then again, I also don't really have anything else to spend miles on, since I've gotten all the recipes I want. I figure I might as well spend them on island tours! Right now I'm saving up miles for whenever my next villager asks to move out. Plus, many villagers are trading for so many tickets that I dodn't think I could afford to trade for most of the villagers I want.
After three tickets, I found Marina.
After two tickets, I found Flora.
After two tickets, I found Tangy.
There was only one time when I was villager-hunting and didn't find anyone good. I used five tickets, didn't find anyone I liked, and gave up since I didn't have any more Nook miles. (It was early on in the game).
So, for me, so far it has been well worth it. Then again, I also don't really have anything else to spend miles on, since I've gotten all the recipes I want. I figure I might as well spend them on island tours! Right now I'm saving up miles for whenever my next villager asks to move out. Plus, many villagers are trading for so many tickets that I dodn't think I could afford to trade for most of the villagers I want.
I wouldn't get my villagers any other way than grinding them from mystery tours, personally. I can't stand it when the villagers that I love wont stop talking about their "old life" in someone else's town... lol. Idk if that still happens in NH but I hated it in NL.
But it took me maybe 200-ish tickets before I got Cranston just the other day (the villager I care about most.)
But I also got Julia, Ketchup, and Mitzi from the island within those 200 tickets (all 3 were villagers I also wanted.)
Still going to have to keep looking for Gladys, Sprocket, Deirdre, Zell, and Kabuki. And maybe Lolly.
I anticipate it will take me a great deal of time and tickets to run across all those.
But I think it's worth it, and so exciting when you pull the one you've been looking for!
But it took me maybe 200-ish tickets before I got Cranston just the other day (the villager I care about most.)
But I also got Julia, Ketchup, and Mitzi from the island within those 200 tickets (all 3 were villagers I also wanted.)
Still going to have to keep looking for Gladys, Sprocket, Deirdre, Zell, and Kabuki. And maybe Lolly.
I anticipate it will take me a great deal of time and tickets to run across all those.
But I think it's worth it, and so exciting when you pull the one you've been looking for!
brockbrock
♬ jeg har ikke lyst til at dø ♬
If you have an open plot then there will be an animal on the island, no?
I've yet to find an empty island from my 400+ trips as long as I had an open plot available.
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