Mystery Island RNG Pattern - solved with data and stats tests
- Thread starter ctar17
- Start date
I have Gladys moving out tomorrow, and I plan on wasting all my Nook Miles finding a replacement villager (hopefully), should be about 15-20 tickets. I'll jot down who I encounter and stuff and PM it to you... if I remember.
I haven't formally tested personalities yet, but I suspect that villagers 7 and on do NOT have personality weights (i.e. one personality isn't forced on you in the mystery islands, it certainly hasn't been the case for me). I had quite the opposite experience where I had a lot of trouble finding a single snooty but found tons and tons of jocks and other personalities but not a snooty and cranky.
Once you go out looking for villager #7, it won't be different than looking for villager #27, I don't think the game changes weights based on "early game" or "late game" The only exception is the starting 2 (uchi and jock) and villagers 3-5 are normal, lazy, and peppy. Villager #6 (the forced campsiter) seems to be almost always a smug.
Hi everyone, I'm back with some more findings.
Looking at more data, I have reason to believe that the game does NOT roll for a personality. It just goes from species to villager. Nor does lacking a personality or species make them more likely to appear on the islands. My data analysis I did today seems to point to this, but I would need a lot more data to formally confirm it. Very strong lean towards no personality roll, but can't outright confirm it at the moment
Looking at more data, I have reason to believe that the game does NOT roll for a personality. It just goes from species to villager. Nor does lacking a personality or species make them more likely to appear on the islands. My data analysis I did today seems to point to this, but I would need a lot more data to formally confirm it. Very strong lean towards no personality roll, but can't outright confirm it at the moment
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Dragostea Din Tei
Senior Member
So that means the best time to search for a peppy/lazy/normal dreamie would be with the first 3 plots near the start of the game? Since those are the only ones that are personality locked... I can already see myself spending the first days searching for Beau like crazy 
Since there are only two lazy deers that means I have better chances than trying to find Bob
Since there are only two lazy deers that means I have better chances than trying to find Bob
Typhloquill
Lucky Lucky
This is really cool! Thank you for the data. If you would like, I can compile a list of all the villagers I saw on tours to help add to the pool. Thi is pretty concrete in itself but I'd love to help if you need it! I'm just a sucker for looking at statistics.
sicklewillow
Senior Member
I just found one of my remaining favorite villagers a few minutes ago. Will send data to you as soon as possible.
So that means the best time to search for a peppy/lazy/normal dreamie would be with the first 3 plots near the start of the game? Since those are the only ones that are personality locked... I can already see myself spending the first days searching for Beau like crazy
If you don't mind them not having their cool house then yes. However, these 3 along with the starting uchi and jock will never get their upgraded houses unless they leave your island and you find the villager again and invite
I guess I'm happy that I got Reneigh on a NMT island, instead of at the start!
Dragostea Din Tei
Senior Member
The villagers also upgrade their house? I knew that the interior was different for those and didnt mind it as I don't think the new horizons house interiors for the villagers are as interesting and unique as they were in new leaf. How does that house upgrade work?
If they're one of the first 5 villagers, their house interior will always be basic.
If they're villager 6 or later, they will come with their normal "upgrade" house interior. This will be the same for each different villager.
For example, a Fauna invite as one of the first 5 will have a basic interior, but a Fauna invited after villager 5 (6 and beyond) will have her themed house. Inviting someone else's basic Fauna will result in the Fauna upgrading to her themed house when she comes to your island
Dragostea Din Tei
Senior Member
I had seen the interiors for normal and peppy and actually liked them even if they were basic, but gosh the lazy interior is awful
Hey, just checked this out as promised! Thank you so much for testing more and figuring out that there's no personality roll! I have still no clue what a Chi Square test is or what any of those numbers mean, but as long as I know now how the game rolls in idiot terms, I'm good!
I'm not quite sure what the game will want from me next and when I can go island villager hunting again (and if it'll then be with set personalities again and if I can do it once more before putting the housing plots down), but once I will go hunting, I'll collect more data.
Thanks for linking to my little thread, too!
I appreciate it!
I'm not quite sure what the game will want from me next and when I can go island villager hunting again (and if it'll then be with set personalities again and if I can do it once more before putting the housing plots down), but once I will go hunting, I'll collect more data.
Thanks for linking to my little thread, too!
I appreciate it!
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Wait, wait, what? My guys will not have their pretty houses? D: I know this is not really the topic of this thread, but this is the first I've heard about this. How do I get my guys to upgrade while on my island? I spent so long to get them now!
Oh, nice...
I think I'm pretty much screwed up because I'm after a specific Dog, Duck, Squirrel and a final villager that will be either another Squirrel or an Ostrich (which means, I would end up with either two squirrels or two ostriches in the island)
I think I'm pretty much screwed up because I'm after a specific Dog, Duck, Squirrel and a final villager that will be either another Squirrel or an Ostrich (which means, I would end up with either two squirrels or two ostriches in the island)
Data update:
I have checked ALL of the species, not just the octopuses, and have found the species roll first theory to hold across the board (only 2/35 didn't hold, but this is not enough to conclude there is a different chance)! The chance for a species to be rolled is 1/35, it does not vary by species.
I will update my original post to reflect these findings.
Hey thanks for checking it out! No need to worry too much about the Chi Square test. Basically it tests whether 2 groups of data are statistically different. A common use of it is to test whether your observed set of data is statistically different (not due to random chance) from the expected data.
As far as the house upgrading, sadly they won't upgrade. If you don't mind them not having the upgraded houses then it doesn't matter, but if you really want the upgraded house, you'll have to have them move out and back in again.
I have checked ALL of the species, not just the octopuses, and have found the species roll first theory to hold across the board (only 2/35 didn't hold, but this is not enough to conclude there is a different chance)! The chance for a species to be rolled is 1/35, it does not vary by species.
I will update my original post to reflect these findings.
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Hey, just checked this out as promised! Thank you so much for testing more and figuring out that there's no personality roll! I have still no clue what a Chi Square test is or what any of those numbers mean, but as long as I know now how the game rolls in idiot terms, I'm good!
I'm not quite sure what the game will want from me next and when I can go island villager hunting again (and if it'll then be with set personalities again and if I can do it once more before putting the housing plots down), but once I will go hunting, I'll collect more data.
Thanks for linking to my little thread, too!
Post automatically merged:
Wait, wait, what? My guys will not have their pretty houses? D: I know this is not really the topic of this thread, but this is the first I've heard about this. How do I get my guys to upgrade while on my island? I spent so long to get them now!
Hey thanks for checking it out! No need to worry too much about the Chi Square test. Basically it tests whether 2 groups of data are statistically different. A common use of it is to test whether your observed set of data is statistically different (not due to random chance) from the expected data.
As far as the house upgrading, sadly they won't upgrade
. If you don't mind them not having the upgraded houses then it doesn't matter, but if you really want the upgraded house, you'll have to have them move out and back in again.
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Miss Misty
Senior Member
Like ctar17 said, the only way to get one of your first 5 villager to have their 'real' homes is to let them move out and then invite them again down the line. You may have luck gifting them items, but there's no guarantee that they'll put those items up in the correct places (or at all) and as far as I know, you can't gift them carpet or wallpaper. That is the major downside to island hopping for villagers 3-5 when the odds for dream lazies/normals/peppies is slightly better.Wait, wait, what? My guys will not have their pretty houses? D: I know this is not really the topic of this thread, but this is the first I've heard about this. How do I get my guys to upgrade while on my island? I spent so long to get them now!
Data update:
I have checked ALL of the species, not just the octopuses, and have found the species roll first theory to hold across the board! The chance for a species to be rolled is 1/35, it does not vary by species.
I will update my original post to reflect these findings.
Post automatically merged:
Hey thanks for checking it out! No need to worry too much about the Chi Square test. Basically it tests whether 2 groups of data are statistically different. A common use of it is to test whether your observed set of data is statistically different (not due to random chance) from the expected data.
As far as the house upgrading, sadly they won't upgrade
Thanks for the Chi Square test explanation!
And maaaaan, this is such a bummer about the houses! I've tried to google to see how their houses are supposed to look like and Dotty's isn't that amazing or themed, but I haven't been able to find a picture of Fauna's yet. If I move any of them out, I'll probably never see them again, especially not Dotty, given how horrible it was to find her even with the Peppy restriction. Wow, this absolutely sucks. I thought "Oh nice, I have two dreamies now and am good", but apparently not.
Ugh, the struggle never ends, does it? Thanks for letting me know about this issue, now I need to figure out what to do about it and how in the world I can fix it. Seems like luck is not on my side these days when I finally thought it had turned around yesterday. Well, at the very least it might not be as horrible as imagined if I really have to send my Switch Lite in for a non-reacting Joystick and potentially losing a villager during those weeks then...Anyway, guess that might mean that I'll have to go even more island-hopping in the future if I am moving these guys out again.
And while I know it's not on the topic of the thread again: Does anyone know how the amiibo-villagers react? Like, do they have different dialogue from "normally" invited villagers? I never owned amiibos and don't even know if a Switch Lite can use them, but at this point, buying the amiibos might be easier (even though more expensive) than Mystery Island hopping - because yeah, I fully admit that after grinding NMTs for two weeks, I bought a 400-batch from ebay for my spreadsheet test because I was just sick of it all. At least the data made it worth it and managed to help someone, so there's that. Honestly, though, if I had known the houses mess, I would have never done it at all and just picked the first villager available. Still, I would prefer a "natural" way of recruiting villagers and not some magical inviting process. :/ Ah well. Thanks for all the help, guys!
Thanks for the Chi Square test explanation!
And maaaaan, this is such a bummer about the houses! I've tried to google to see how their houses are supposed to look like and Dotty's isn't that amazing or themed, but I haven't been able to find a picture of Fauna's yet. If I move any of them out, I'll probably never see them again, especially not Dotty, given how horrible it was to find her even with the Peppy restriction. Wow, this absolutely sucks. I thought "Oh nice, I have two dreamies now and am good", but apparently not.
-snip-
I ended up trading Dom, who was my jock starter, to someone on another site briefly and re-adopting him so he could get his normal house. Maybe someone on here would be willing to cycle them back to you if you want their normal houses? Dom even remembered me when I went to pick him up and he was excited we were going to be neighbors again.
I understand your frustration! The only default personality house I like is the peppy house so I'm not as upset about Audie not getting her own custom house, but it's really annoying when you see what they could be.
ETA: I picked up the exact same Dom I traded so that's why he remembered me (and the friendship level was retained). A random amiibo or mystery island copy villager won't remember you, but if that doesn't bother you, definitely consider it.
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Miss Misty
Senior Member
This thread has a pic of Fauna's interior. It's honestly up to you if it's worth it for an interior layout change. I do know your pain - Wade (who I'd like to keep) has an amazing ice/fish/shell themed interior normally, but he's stuck with the generic lazy interior since I got him from an early-game island tour. Once the adoption glitches are fixed, I may end up letting him go and trying to adopt him again from someone who could scan his amiibo for me.
As for amiibo villagers, they act the same as a game-spawned villager would.
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