I'm busy/on my phone but I ducked in here to say that lynching people because of preconceived notions of their quality of play or gambling for a "lucky kill" is only harmful to town and you should instead use a juxtaposition of their current play combined with their previous play and examine whether you believe the motivation of their posts align with how you think they'd play as town.
Oh, and no lynching is literally the epitome of poor play so don't do that.
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Game is moving like a slug so I'll kick this off with an rqs:
Answer each of the following questions in this format:
How often do you intend to post each day? Roughly 3 times on average, likely to spike some days.
Gun to your head, you had to Lynch 1 player off the nonexistent content so far, who do you Lynch? Dolby?
There is a red button, a green button and a yellow button, which to click? Yellow.
What's your avatar? Ruby rose from rwby.
How much previous forum mafia experience do you have? Several hundred games over various sites.
Standard Endless. Nothing to this post.
RLing provides information in later days due to the fact that mafia will inherently give clues to their partners in the process. But you're not far off; both rling and nling are abhorrent wastes of the first day. What I was suggesting was scumhunting, just in words rather than with a blanket label.
Friggin' EnderWiggun. That is all on this subject.
Actually I lied:
TFW English major mucks up basic grammar.
Runeraider's entrance isn't alignment telling at all since it resembles his early content from other games. Move on. (Not defending the horror of it, merely suggesting it's irrelevant to his role.)
@Runeraider: Why don't you like RQSes?
@Ashtot: If Ender is scum why're you voting Dolby? (Or are they both red in your opinion?)
Preliminary reads are that pillow appears weak town and Dolby appears weak red.
Pretty standard again. The reads are noteworthy though.
This more or less sums up why I think they're weak mafia.
Read justice's and Wiggin's walls.
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Wiggin isn't a real English word and I watched the movie, I didn't read the book. Therefore I have plausible deniability.
Quoting and responses. Nothing here.
BURNED. Sorry, back to seriousness.
@Wiggin Pillow's being more assertive then they generally are as mafia. That being said, I'd love for you to explain how you get pillow!scum. Even from an objective, meta-less standpoint I don't see it.
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Woah totally missed the page of dialogue between Ashtot and Wiggin.
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And yeah pillow wears their alignment on their sleeve. They were actually hellishly towny in bravely default, I just abused the fact that they inherently have incoherent logic to get them lynched.
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Going to go to bed.
Dolby is my vote for now.
He's defending pillow a lot. Now while I admit that I realised Pillow was town later, his statement "I don't see how even from a meta-less standpoint". Especially with other people fossing Pillow, that statement is very strong for so early. I still wasn't suspicious at this stage.
@LeBelle and Crys: I'm reasonably sure I don't have RQS exclusively saved for the times I flip red lmao? And as for lynching strong players I'm pretty damn sure I also don't need to do that, re-bravely default mafia. (I was voting Tom day 1 but I didn't get him lynched. In fact I never night killed a 'strong' player. I just let them tear each other apart.)
Now for the hunt. For the chase. And finally, after the spear inevitably lands, the feast.
Admission that lynching people for being bad is a terrible notion.
Continues by claiming to actually be suspicious of someone due to poor play. Moreover, Ashtot has posted less than EnderWiggin and his posts have all been short. If Dolby was genuinely going to red-read someone for 'spamming', it wouldn't be ashtot.
After saying that he 'started to be serious with the prospect of an Ashtot lynch' he now lists him as a no-shot on his lynch options. The inconsistency here is killing me.
Need I point out that pillow bunny's vote was for literally the same reason as Ashtot, the now vacant original suspicion Dolby had. There is literally no reason for Ashtot becoming vacant from this guys red list.
Ashtot??? Ashtot?!?!!
YEah no terminate this guy post-haste. If I was being honest I wasn't really not sold on the Dolby wagon yesterday, but I can't see myself not lynching him now. This is the tier of stuff pillow bunny had in KtbC.
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If I had to hazard a guess I'd say ashtot was his partner but don't quote me on that.
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Also just ISO'd Runeraider. I don't see what you guys are complaining about. He's posting everything that comes to his head and that means he's as open as a door without a hinge. Everything he's doing implies he isn't preparing his posts at all/doesn't care what his posts are perceived as. In my experience, red players tend to be more cautious and care way more about how people interpret their content. I'd say Rune is town so far.
Full read on Dolby. This is actually a fairly decent d1 case, and certainly convinced me. There was only one niggle I shouldn't have ignored. Oddly, he misrepresents Dolby a little. I actually comment and:
Still doesn't justify the complete lack of mention of Ashtot further in the post.
Really? I responded to this too but he DIDN'T ever respond. I really should've taken the hint but I like Endless!town too much so I gave him more leeway. This is when I really started to wonder though.
Meh, you can't get em all.
I'm going to focus a lot of my attention on the people that avoided that wagon rather than the people that wagoned it since the logic behind it was substantial.
Cute. Vaunting his own wagon and then never following up on this suggestion? Bet you he has at least one partner on the wagon.
Like I said earlier, I have literally no free time on monday and barely any today. Dad we both know I can easily control the chat as either alignment and that being inactive for me isn't a tell, it simply just means I don't have time. I'm going to address things chronologically as I have time. I should have enough time to address everything within the next 4 hours.
Nothing post for Endless. No tell either way.
These are the following reasons which could have contributed to mafia making a pillow kill:
a) Pillow was red-reading a mafia.
b) Pillow wasn't red-reading a mafia and mafia killed pillow to cast suspicion on pillow's red reads.
c) Mafia was townreading Pillow, and wanted to look good post flip.
d) Mafia was red-reading pillow and wanted to make it appear as if someone died that they were red reading creating a contraction to the possibility of them being mafia. (Ex. they wouldn't kill their red-read)
e) Pillow was killed because they requested it.
f) Pillow was killed because mafia blue read them.
g) Pillow was killed because Pillow is good friends/knows the ins and outs of a member of the mafia team.
h) Pillow was killed because mafia wanted to make it seem like a friend of pillows was on the mafia team.
i) Pillow was killed because a mafia genuinely thought they were towny and that they'd wind up being too hard to lynch along the way. (Despite the present read)
j) Other
Due to this, there isn't any real reason to talk about it. Sure, we could mudsling and try and poe the most likely outcome, but there's nothing stopping mafia coming up with really solid logic using assumptions either. If a type of scumhunting has assumptions this large in it then you're going to spend more time spinning in circles since at least 3 what-ifs are required to even start thinking about it.
If I give it much thought, mafia probably didn't kill pillow because of the request. Then again, does it really matter?
And yeah, I agree, as the player pool gets smaller and we start to know some of the mafia team due to flips early kills are incredibly useful information.
While it is going to be useful later, there's no point attempting to dismantle the wifom we're looking at right now. I'm more interested in figuring out the content and pushes we're dealing with from the days.
Obfuscating it with fair points. I actually almost missed the key point of this one but more on that later.
This hypothesis would be viable albeit weak if it weren't for the fact that, prior to meeting on this site, I've never played with SarasaKat before. I do agree that there's most likely a reasonably experienced/good player on the mafia team. That doesn't really narrow down much though.
OKAY, First of all, I have skimmed the game a couple of times. I haven't had the time to post though. Additionally, using wifom as a logic for a read is kind of humourous considering the terminology's origins. (It's literally the inability to figure something out based on the situation.) Finally, - and this ones a doozer - I said that out of the votes, the ones that we should focus on were those off wagon since the wagon was air tight. However, I never said anything about lynching Rune. In fact, had if I
had inferred that,
that would have been reason to red read me.
This is more or less the same logic I townread him for earlier.
Can't remember you outlining your Tom townread, I'd love to hear your reasoning.
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EBWOP: , if I
had inferred that (No had on the beginning)
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The amount of mafia in any given forum mafia game is roughly <playernum>/3. 15/3 = 3.75
We're either dealing with (more likely) 4 mafia or (less likely) 3 mafia. Cheers.
I'm finished reading up. I'm going to ISO some people and give some dank reads.
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EBWOP: <playernum>/4, 15/4
Usual Endless can respond effortlessly to accusations. Though Dad was inaccurate.
ISO means read in isolation. Basically you get a person, view their forum posts in their thread and only theirs, and use that to get a read on them.
Clarification post. Useless.
Ran out of time, going to finish what I have up on my computer tonight.
Useless post for analysis.
@SarasaKat I did.
Due to irl circumstances, I can't access my comp until tomorrow. To give a basic summery though I townread SarasaKat, rune and dad, am under the impression ender is mafia.
I'll post the case which is mostly written up on my comp when I get up tomorrow. And no it doesn't have anything to do with his activity levels.
Hello. He probably saw something he can jump on. I'm curious to see his case but I'll see it I'm sure.
CONCLUSION:
Endless is
scum
To elaborate. One meta about him is that he constantly, as scum, focuses on one target per day. He'll pick out someone and get them lynched. Now this isn't always a scum-tell. He's too good to have a 100% scumtell. However he does this SO often that I'm very wary of it.
Now, Pillow/Sarasa? Why those two kills? Because Endless. Both of them are people he has set up as "TOWN". No way he'll be able to lynch either, so best to get them out of the way. (If he lead a wagon on Pillow it would scream scum.)
