Mafia Squeaky Clean Mafia - Day 3 - Ends Monday May 25 at 7pm EST

[DinoTown]

^ Honestly this setup isn't all that fun, at least in my opinion. I don't get the instant satisfaction of knowing whether I was right or wrong.

Also, to add to Epona's post, by stopping those early flips from showing, it also helps mafia generally confuse the town on what roles are and are not currently in play. If Mayor had flipped and showed doctor, it would be hard for mafia under suspicion later to turn around and claim doctor, because I think we'd all pretty much call bs on a third protective role. On the other hand, if we have no idea if Mayor was doctor or not, it would be slightly easier for them to make that claim which could save them.

Then again, I think the idea of a second protection role after Seroja is already a bit up in the air on if people believe it or not (I'm inclined to say no) so I think that a doctor claim would be a poor choice for mafia in general but hey ho.

Post automatically merged: May 23, 2020

Also without the flips, we have no idea how many players are sat on either side. If the game started with 3 mafia, for example, we could still be at 3, be at 2 or at 1, depending on Kat and Mayor's roles. This makes it that much harder to do the math and work out at what point we reach lylo. Unless Toads tells us or we find out something like mafia will flip and town won't, we aren't going to know which lynch could end the game if it's the wrong choice. If we'd have Kat and Mayor's flips, it would be easier to do that maths since we'd at least have a starting point. Right now all we really have is "9 living players. 3 dead. All we know for sure is we lost one townie. Not sure about the other two."

Post automatically merged: May 23, 2020

*If we'd had Kat and Mayor's flips and the wipes were saved for later

 

[Biancasbotique]

okay worst case that Kat and Mayor are both town, that leaves us with how many town and how many mafia? Do we know how many mafia are there?

Post automatically merged: May 23, 2020

so let me see, as you said, if the game started with three, then if both Kay , Mayor are town...now we are left with 3 mafia, and six townies.

If there is a nightkill, then we are at now 3 mafia, six townies.

3 vs. 6, during day 3.
If mislynched, left with 3 vs. 5,
nigh 3, left with 3 vs 4,
Day 4, mislynch and then mafia wins

so we have two cycles to get it right if worst case happens

 

[Damniel]

if the infection kills more people who even knows how much time we have lmao

 

[Biancasbotique]

sorry , i miscalculated

after night 2 tonight, nightkill (and i hope they only have 1 kp- which is confusing- because typically- if there is kp in tbt, it is 3/2=1.5 or 2),

3 vs. 5

if we mislych day 3, then its 3 vs. 4
and at night it will be 3 and 3

So we are at MYLO during day 3! dang if this is the case

Post automatically merged: May 23, 2020

if the infection kills more people who even knows how much time we have lmao

dang i didnt even factor in the infection jeez

 

[Ace Marvel]

Does anyone else find it weird that we are 5 hours from ending the cycle and Geoni and Trundle are IMA?

 

[Damniel]

Does anyone else find it weird that we are 5 hours from ending the cycle and Geoni and Trundle are IMA?

yes that’s why they’re scum uwu

Post automatically merged: May 23, 2020

not why but because

 

[Ace Marvel]

MIA* and yes I'm starting to have doubts too, also about you Damniel, I can't be 100% you are scum anymore.

Post automatically merged: May 23, 2020

the virus in the game be like:

 

[Biancasbotique]

Does anyone else find it weird that we are 5 hours from ending the cycle and Geoni and Trundle are IMA?

Yes, those two are truly sus for not being here and posting random stuff. The last time Geoni was here was just asking questions left and right, and last time Trundle was here was just to reply to Mayor's sus..Jeez. they are coasting

 

[Damniel]

@toadsworthy if a player was modkilled, would we be told of their role? (not saying i’m trying to be MK’d lol)

 

[DinoTown]

I think my brain is going all over the place - can I have a hand with some of the maths? I'm going absolute worst case here but I think I must be wrong about something somewhere.

Let's assume there is still 3 mafia left alive, Mayor and Kat were both town, but then infection is done by an anti-town tp, that actually means 4 to eliminate for town to win, right? Which would put us as 5 town vs 4 anti-town currently, then 2 kills EoN at 3 town vs 4 anti-town (again, assuming worst-case neither of the two anti-town parties hit each other). But since 3/4 anti-town is mafia and there's 3 townies left, wouldn't that meet the mafia wincon of equaling town? Unless either a) the infector throws a spanner in those works somehow or b) the mafia wincon for this game is not to equal or outnumber town but to straight-up kill every single townie. If neither of those, though, then technically, the absolute worst-case, town has already lost at EoN2?

I know something must be wrong in my logic but I can't spot it.

 

[epona]

I think my brain is going all over the place - can I have a hand with some of the maths? I'm going absolute worst case here but I think I must be wrong about something somewhere.

Let's assume there is still 3 mafia left alive, Mayor and Kat were both town, but then infection is done by an anti-town tp, that actually means 4 to eliminate for town to win, right? Which would put us as 5 town vs 4 anti-town currently, then 2 kills EoN at 3 town vs 4 anti-town (again, assuming worst-case neither of the two anti-town parties hit each other). But since 3/4 anti-town is mafia and there's 3 townies left, wouldn't that meet the mafia wincon of equaling town? Unless either a) the infector throws a spanner in those works somehow or b) the mafia wincon for this game is not to equal or outnumber town but to straight-up kill every single townie. If neither of those, though, then technically, the absolute worst-case, town has already lost at EoN2?

I know something must be wrong in my logic but I can't spot it.

i think the logic we've assumed so far is there's 3 anti-town, be that a 3-man scumteam or 2-man scumteam and a hostile TP

Post automatically merged: May 23, 2020

i think a 3-person scumteam PLUS a hostile TP would be stacked too heavily against town

 

[DinoTown]

i think the logic we've assumed so far is there's 3 anti-town, be that a 3-man scumteam or 2-man scumteam and a hostile TP

Post automatically merged: May 23, 2020

i think a 3-person scumteam PLUS a hostile TP would be stacked too heavily against town

That sounds much more balanced, especially with the wipes going on.
6 town vs 3 anti, down to 4 town vs 3 anti.
Assuming that TP infector wincon is to have everyone infected or something at least separate from mafia wincon, then 2 scum + TP wouldn't be mylo because a mislynch would leave us at 3 town, which is still more than 2 scum.
If there's no TP and it's 3 scum, D3 is mylo.

 

[epona]

That sounds much more balanced, especially with the wipes going on.
6 town vs 3 anti, down to 4 town vs 3 anti.
Assuming that TP infector wincon is to have everyone infected or something at least separate from mafia wincon, then 2 scum + TP wouldn't be mylo because a mislynch would leave us at 3 town, which is still more than 2 scum.
If there's no TP and it's 3 scum, D3 is mylo.

why do you say this when there was only 1 death on n1?

also, this is all assuming that both kat and mayor leaf were mislynched townies, which a) we have no evidence for and b) i disagree with

 

[Ace Marvel]

2 mafia
1 TP
9 townies (1 power role confirmed, 1 maybe (doctor))

ATM
best case esenario
1-2 mafia and TP
8 townies

worst case
3 mafia/TP
6 townies -today's kill

Post automatically merged: May 23, 2020

scenario*

 

[DinoTown]

why do you say this when there was only 1 death on n1?

also, this is all assuming that both kat and mayor leaf were mislynched townies, which a) we have no evidence for and b) i disagree with

Did you miss the part where I said I was doing worst-case scenario?
I also think that we've hit either a scum or the TP in Kat/Mayor but like I said, I'm doing the calculations on worst case in that they were both mislynches. Worst case I think is 2 deaths tonight because we might get our first death from infection than also a mafia nk.

 

[Ace Marvel]

Both Seroja and Leaf if she didn't lie, were immune, but maybe the one able to pass the virus is not (Kat) and she was doomed from the start.

Post automatically merged: May 23, 2020

I will be open and say it, I have not received any notification telling me in anyway that I am infected.

 

[DinoTown]

^If, for example, Kat was the infector, we don't need to worry about infection at all, we'll only have 1 nk most likely (with the exception of mafia strongarms but that would just be getting insane at this point) and also be down to just 2 anti-towns.
My maths only applies if we've done the worst we could possibly do so far.

 

[epona]

Did you miss the part where I said I was doing worst-case scenario?
I also think that we've hit either a scum or the TP in Kat/Mayor but like I said, I'm doing the calculations on worst case in that they were both mislynches. Worst case I think is 2 deaths tonight because we might get our first death from infection than also a mafia nk.

eh, that's a lot of assumptions based off of pure theory for my liking. we don't really know how the infection mechanic works so i think it's impossible to say how the deaths will operate, and i don't think pulling numbers from basically thin air is actually helpful to town at this point, at least until we see what happens n2

i also don't think kat was the infector seeing as she died d1 and we got the infection flavour text at the end of n1, unless the infection is a day action

 

[DinoTown]

eh, that's a lot of assumptions based off of pure theory for my liking. we don't really know how the infection mechanic works so i think it's impossible to say how the deaths will operate, and i don't think pulling numbers from basically thin air is actually helpful to town at this point, at least until we see what happens n2

i also don't think kat was the infector seeing as she died d1 and we got the infection flavour text at the end of n1, unless the infection is a day action

It is a lot of assumptions and I'm pretty much certain that the scenario I described isn't the case. (Nor do I think Kat was the infector, I just used that example since Teddy mentioned it - I think it's more likely the case that Mayor was scum).

 

[epona]

It is a lot of assumptions and I'm pretty much certain that the scenario I described isn't the case. (Nor do I think Kat was the infector, I just used that example since Teddy mentioned it - I think it's more likely the case that Mayor was scum).

then i don't really see the point in fleshing it out in the first place. it's not useful