Mafia TBT Mafia: Renaissance - Game Thread [ENDGAME - Town Wins]
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oof antonio i miss you already. 
do y’all all really believe locket is scum?
do you also believe shawo’s ego was too big to admit he couldn’t get me lynched?
do you really think he wouldn’t flip onto locket because she’s mafia? wouldn’t that be an easy set up when he knows he’s going down? you guys saw him panic.
@glow i know you’re going one at a time but humor me for a minute.. if locket wasn’t here, she’s not an option, she’s not even in the game, who would your next focus be & why?
i’m my head. shawo isn’t dumb. he’s calculated. he calculated that he could run his facade all game, he was dedicated to the lie.
why wouldn’t he flip to locket to save himself?
even if she /was/ mafia, wouldn’t he gain some cred for making the switch? wouldn’t he be able to twist a story that i jumped to locket to self preserve my own agenda as “mafia” (if i didn’t die in the night that is) and still push onward with his absorber scheme?
unless he really was so panicked he slipped, but y’all that’s a REALLY big slip. like super huge.
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so you’ve townlocked me, glow and dino?
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do y’all all really believe locket is scum?
do you also believe shawo’s ego was too big to admit he couldn’t get me lynched?
do you really think he wouldn’t flip onto locket because she’s mafia? wouldn’t that be an easy set up when he knows he’s going down? you guys saw him panic.
@glow i know you’re going one at a time but humor me for a minute.. if locket wasn’t here, she’s not an option, she’s not even in the game, who would your next focus be & why?
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i’m my head. shawo isn’t dumb. he’s calculated. he calculated that he could run his facade all game, he was dedicated to the lie.
why wouldn’t he flip to locket to save himself?
even if she /was/ mafia, wouldn’t he gain some cred for making the switch? wouldn’t he be able to twist a story that i jumped to locket to self preserve my own agenda as “mafia” (if i didn’t die in the night that is) and still push onward with his absorber scheme?
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unless he really was so panicked he slipped, but y’all that’s a REALLY big slip. like super huge.
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DinoTown
Festive Fossil
Shawo is calculated, which begs the question of WHY he would include Locket in a lynch pool to flat of refuse to vote that way when it came down to it.
I have no idea why he would really include Locket in a lynch pool in the first place other than there was suspcision being thrown around at the time. He was the only one at the time to really think anything on (or rather, wanted to pin anything of) me or tae, so it was important to include someone else in there who was generally sus'd to provide a little more legitimacy to the claim.
In terms of why he would be so insistent to not vote Locket, the only thing I can really think of at the minute is the possibility that Locket is perhaps another pr mafia. Perhaps a 1-shot kill being saved for the night when taking out an extra town will cause a mafia win. I've not done the maths for it and can't because I just woke up, but I don't think this is the case since I'm pretty sure we'd have already passed the point of 'extra kill = mafia win' so I'm not sure that's it.
I have no idea why he would really include Locket in a lynch pool in the first place other than there was suspcision being thrown around at the time. He was the only one at the time to really think anything on (or rather, wanted to pin anything of) me or tae, so it was important to include someone else in there who was generally sus'd to provide a little more legitimacy to the claim.
In terms of why he would be so insistent to not vote Locket, the only thing I can really think of at the minute is the possibility that Locket is perhaps another pr mafia. Perhaps a 1-shot kill being saved for the night when taking out an extra town will cause a mafia win. I've not done the maths for it and can't because I just woke up, but I don't think this is the case since I'm pretty sure we'd have already passed the point of 'extra kill = mafia win' so I'm not sure that's it.
you're a townlock. glow and dino are townleans, they're not 100% town confirmed.
maybe. and i guess shawo was just incredibly desperate, because when you look into the numbers at the time, a mislynch of you would've bought mafia the game. i feel like he didn't want to switch onto locket either because she's mafia or because he wanted you dead so bad (and the game to be over) that he couldn't stop fighting for it. or both.
my only thought for this is that if locket is mafia, then locket is a powerful role that he wanted to protect, especially because he's just a weak messenger?
i'm also trying to think why shawo would've done that if locket is town. as you mentioned, he is an intelligent player and maybe he was afraid that both locket and you would be townlocked if he were to switch to locket and still die. or he may have also wanted to leave the sus on locket before he dies, so town could be misled from his actual scummates.
when you really think about it, mafia pretty much already had a one-shot kill. and that was with oath's joat ability, he had a strongarm kill and i think that was used on night 2.
DinoTown
Festive Fossil
While that is true, I'm not sure it's a complete impossibility of a second 1-shot kill, or maybe just another useful mafia pr that Locket is.
i’m getting on a plane in a few hours... and it’s gonna be a 13+ hour traveling day so i might be twiddling my thumbs trying to not fall asleep in an airport but i’ll most likely be able to stay filled in today as long as my phone doesn’t die.
still looking forward to hearing @Trundle @glow and @PunchyDaHufflepuff ’s responses to my questions.
why would they risk town lynching scum today instead of just dwindling our numbers of they had an extra kill last night? i don’t think it’s a mafia PR save sacrifice. i think it was a distraction.
with the numbers where they’re at, if we mislynch today, do we lose?
still looking forward to hearing @Trundle @glow and @PunchyDaHufflepuff ’s responses to my questions.
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that would be so ****ing broken tho. and if she was a 1-shot kill, why was there only one death last night?
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why would they risk town lynching scum today instead of just dwindling our numbers of they had an extra kill last night? i don’t think it’s a mafia PR save sacrifice. i think it was a distraction.
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with the numbers where they’re at, if we mislynch today, do we lose?
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sorry guys end of semester hell but just realised the assignment i thought was due tomorrow is due next week >:3
lmfao.
as someone who's known him for years, the answer to any sentence beginning with "do you believe shawo's ego was too big to...." is always yes ; )
nah but rly tho i'll discuss why fhpov he, technically, had a reason to not switch to locket
ignoring the state of the game and speaking generally, i would assume that he would be more likely to bus a "less-experienced" teammate to preserve himself
i have been thinking about this question a lot while i was writing the rest of this and i'm actually writing this part last, because i dunno how to answer it but here's my thoughts:
alive players (this is for me bc the player list in the OP is crowded): trundle / dinotown / locket / tae / glow / harbour / punchy**
there was a point in this game where i was like, there are just some people here that i townread to the extent where i'd just have to accept the L if they were mafia. thankfully basically all those players are dead now but tae you're one. i have been trying to shed some of my d1-d2 reads still even now (like my TR on trundle) but it's difficult when a lot of my gut reads are tonally based.
the idea that there's two mafia within dino/trundle/locket/harbour is confusing especially if i try to ignore locket. i have townread each of these players at different points, each dropping off and alternating spots with the others. locket included, i still have no idea why as mafia she'd outlay a potential push on two nightkills. but that's pretty weak, given the circumstances of the game
** i also can't fully TR punchy for the oath push because of his overall lack of motivation to uh, you know, lynch mafia? now that town has a winning chance?
him swaying off oath because of oath's AtE is something i had dog-eared to revisit later. @ punchy i STILL don't know why you did that.
the thing with shawo's interactions is that i feel they're well crafted and i also think that he spent a large majority of the game deathtunneling you so he had limited interactions with everyone else. i dunno if i want to overwhelm myself by going through them all.
i'm interested to know what the interactions look like between: trundle/punchy/locket/harbour. i intend to look into this in the first 24h of this day phase, so i'm hoping to find something there. off the top of my head i can say i do not think harbour/trundle are aligned? i still operate under the assumption that one of trundle/locket are mafia, but this is actually an assumption based on the idea that punchy is town? a good question to answer with trundle/locket interactions is whether or not they could be both mafia. if i assume there's only 1, de facto this makes one of punchy/harbour/dino mafia, leading to harbour or dino since i had also assumed that oath wouldn't push so valiantly for his partner..........
it's just... something seems wrong with a lot of these conclusions? mainly because harbour and i shared a push on oath, dino voting shawo was wildly beneficial to town, + punchy flipping off of oath last second makes him look really bad.
yes, definitely a calculated play in either case, i believe
well his claim kinda had a clock on it. so basically, if he absorbed the ability that f11 had like he claimed, then either he used it n4 (or whatever night it was, night phases are all a blur now) or he still had it. he seemed to imply he still had it, at first.
BUT he refused to explain either way. that was something i should have caught onto i suppose
if he claimed that he still had it, he would be instructed to be on the clear Antonio. this would mean that if Antonio DID die then either shawo was mafia or mafia had another roleblocking ability (less likely? there's only one blue role that we've seen that has an ability that CAN be roleblocked? {f11} ) so yeah. if we happened to lynch mafia outside of shawo and shawo claimed to still have a bussing ability, Antonio wouldn't have been able to be killed without implications falling heavily on shawo.
i don't think he slipped. from his perspective, he had "CONFIRMED" mafia in you / dinotown. this is because there was no blitz on him. this meant from his angle that "teams were set" i.e. there was no mafia team from his point of view that didn't include you / dinotown. and this was why he also was prompting locket to "just vote him if she's mafia"
personally i don't care to consider vote counts in this way in a forum setting, but what he said was technically true. if we were playing an epicmafia game (basically, irc mafia), i would entirely side with him on this in because of the instantaneous way lynches are determined.
that said, none of it mattered to me because some people were AFK from thread, diff timezones, etc.
lmfao.
as someone who's known him for years, the answer to any sentence beginning with "do you believe shawo's ego was too big to...." is always yes ; )
nah but rly tho i'll discuss why fhpov he, technically, had a reason to not switch to locket
ignoring the state of the game and speaking generally, i would assume that he would be more likely to bus a "less-experienced" teammate to preserve himself
i have been thinking about this question a lot while i was writing the rest of this and i'm actually writing this part last, because i dunno how to answer it but here's my thoughts:
alive players (this is for me bc the player list in the OP is crowded): trundle / dinotown / locket / tae / glow / harbour / punchy**
there was a point in this game where i was like, there are just some people here that i townread to the extent where i'd just have to accept the L if they were mafia. thankfully basically all those players are dead now but tae you're one. i have been trying to shed some of my d1-d2 reads still even now (like my TR on trundle) but it's difficult when a lot of my gut reads are tonally based.
the idea that there's two mafia within dino/trundle/locket/harbour is confusing especially if i try to ignore locket. i have townread each of these players at different points, each dropping off and alternating spots with the others. locket included, i still have no idea why as mafia she'd outlay a potential push on two nightkills. but that's pretty weak, given the circumstances of the game
** i also can't fully TR punchy for the oath push because of his overall lack of motivation to uh, you know, lynch mafia? now that town has a winning chance?
him swaying off oath because of oath's AtE is something i had dog-eared to revisit later. @ punchy i STILL don't know why you did that.
the thing with shawo's interactions is that i feel they're well crafted and i also think that he spent a large majority of the game deathtunneling you so he had limited interactions with everyone else. i dunno if i want to overwhelm myself by going through them all.
i'm interested to know what the interactions look like between: trundle/punchy/locket/harbour. i intend to look into this in the first 24h of this day phase, so i'm hoping to find something there. off the top of my head i can say i do not think harbour/trundle are aligned? i still operate under the assumption that one of trundle/locket are mafia, but this is actually an assumption based on the idea that punchy is town? a good question to answer with trundle/locket interactions is whether or not they could be both mafia. if i assume there's only 1, de facto this makes one of punchy/harbour/dino mafia, leading to harbour or dino since i had also assumed that oath wouldn't push so valiantly for his partner..........
it's just... something seems wrong with a lot of these conclusions? mainly because harbour and i shared a push on oath, dino voting shawo was wildly beneficial to town, + punchy flipping off of oath last second makes him look really bad.
yes, definitely a calculated play in either case, i believe
well his claim kinda had a clock on it. so basically, if he absorbed the ability that f11 had like he claimed, then either he used it n4 (or whatever night it was, night phases are all a blur now) or he still had it. he seemed to imply he still had it, at first.
BUT he refused to explain either way. that was something i should have caught onto i suppose
if he claimed that he still had it, he would be instructed to be on the clear Antonio. this would mean that if Antonio DID die then either shawo was mafia or mafia had another roleblocking ability (less likely? there's only one blue role that we've seen that has an ability that CAN be roleblocked? {f11} ) so yeah. if we happened to lynch mafia outside of shawo and shawo claimed to still have a bussing ability, Antonio wouldn't have been able to be killed without implications falling heavily on shawo.
i don't think he slipped. from his perspective, he had "CONFIRMED" mafia in you / dinotown. this is because there was no blitz on him. this meant from his angle that "teams were set" i.e. there was no mafia team from his point of view that didn't include you / dinotown. and this was why he also was prompting locket to "just vote him if she's mafia"
personally i don't care to consider vote counts in this way in a forum setting, but what he said was technically true. if we were playing an epicmafia game (basically, irc mafia), i would entirely side with him on this in because of the instantaneous way lynches are determined.
that said, none of it mattered to me because some people were AFK from thread, diff timezones, etc.
DinoTown
Festive Fossil
So do we really have ANY idea of who to vote for next?
I'm wary of Locket in general considering what's happened but a lot of people still seem to be wary of Harbour too. I think either is a good idea, honestly.
I'm wary of Locket in general considering what's happened but a lot of people still seem to be wary of Harbour too. I think either is a good idea, honestly.
DinoTown
Festive Fossil
So we've got 12 hours until EoD and there's like... 2 pages or less of posts since EoN. Does anyone have any ideas at all?
At this rate, I'll be having to throw a Hail Mary and vote before I go to bed and just hope something happens.
At this rate, I'll be having to throw a Hail Mary and vote before I go to bed and just hope something happens.
i’m unnerved with how quiet it’s been.
still never heard from trundle or punchy. and not a whole lot from anyone really.
not sure how i feel about glows huge wall of a reply but still no real substance behind it, except saying she doesn’t think shawo had a slip.
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i don’t think i’m comfortable with a locket lynch though.
like are those your top scum reads or are you only voting harbour bc other ppl were sus of them
DinoTown
Festive Fossil
I'm wary of Locket, Punchy and Harbour the most. Trundle a bit eeeh but not as bad as the other three. And out of those three, I think Harbour has the highest chance of being able to be lynched. I wanna actually use my vote and not just throw it somewhere that leads to nothing which just puts suspicion on me for nothing
DinoTown
Festive Fossil
I'm not sure. There was clear support for Shawo at the start of last night but they got more and more annoyed with him as he dug himself deeper into the hole and did vote for him in the end. I guess that could be read as trying to save a teammate and giving up once it was too far gone, but at the same time, I didn't really get those vibes from it.
They made a post - I can't remember which one now - that when I first read I thought 'huh that's a lil funky' but then I reread and I realised I had totally misunderstood the context and once I got it proper it wasn't funky at all, really.
So I guess there's reason enough to suspect glow, but I'm not sure I really see it.
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Okay, I found the post that made me feel weird. I went into my catch-up with the knowledge that Shawo was mafia and had been lynched, and that glow eventually changed their vote to Shawo. When I saw this post, my brain went 'glow's given up trying to defend a teammate, there's another maf'
but I don't think that level of slip would happen and think it was actually supposed to mean 'glow's given up trying to convince Shawo to vote Locket'
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