Mafia TBT Mafia XV: The Siren's Call (Game Over/Mafia & Third Party Win!)

[Jeremy]

Can we give Jello an extended ban please?

His inactivity has certainly affected the game more directly than any other since our new ban system.

 

[Jeremy]

I can't quote much because I'm on my iPod, but I looked quickly through Dolby's posts and he found Cariad "extremely suspicious", agreed with Tom on one or two occasions, found ryan88 suspicious, and after ryan88 said he roleblocked Karla, Dolby suggested to wait for Karla's response before they continued.

I have been analyzing defense posts since the beginning of the game and I planned on releasing the data when the first mafia died. Unfortunately, I still have yet to comb through the last 50 pages, but I'll post what I have once I go through them. From the first 100 pages: there is a slight connection between Dolby and Sataric. And there is a connection between Sataric and Karla. I'll show you all what it is once I compile the last 50 pages. I also think Minties' last post before switching makes her look a bit more suspicious, but my current data doesn't necessarily support that.

 

[Trent the Paladin]

I still personally do not trust Jeremy at all, but Alice's claim is believable (although slightly irked because if you are the real vet, you should have been active to take shots). Switching my vote over to Dolby for the day.

Still waiting for Tom's 'mega case' on other strong players, if that ever comes because it looks like he just wants to tunnel me.

go town!
{rip jello}
also to ryan being town rber, he's essentially cleared, right?

I can't quote much because I'm on my iPod, but I looked quickly through Dolby's posts and he found Cariad "extremely suspicious", agreed with Tom on one or two occasions, found ryan88 suspicious, and after ryan88 said he roleblocked Karla, Dolby suggested to wait for Karla's response before they continued.

Have some quotes.

This is really suspicious to me, first, apparently you block Tom, then Karen says that they think power roles can't perform an action on the same person two days in a row, and then you change your apparent block to Cariad. What the hell! You should be remembering who you blocked if you actually are a town roleblocker, and Cariad claimed blue! If you are town, all you're doing is preventing their actions. Also, since day one, everyone knew that you were a town roleblocker, yet, you have not died or have claimed to be roleblocked. That is extremely suspicious

Ok, I see a potential scum connection here, now, Cariad has claimed to be blocked last night which is good for you, it validates both of your claims, this move is the perfect move from a scum perspective because it "clears" two "town-aligned action roles at once". It confirms both you as town and Cariad who many people were onboard for lynching and was almost lynched until she claimed blue after claiming townie and who many people are still suspicious of. Two people who claim to be blue roles who have contributed almost nothing in this game, one blocks the other, the other claims blocked so both would be clear. AM I THE ONLY ONE WHO FINDS THIS SUSPICIOUS!

I just feel like that is to much of a perfect scum move that Ryan claimed to do, I'm going to vote for him because he and Cariad Are the people I find most suspicious, and this is the last chance for me to vote on day three (except for one hour in the morning tomorrow).

I agree with Tom, Crystal appears to be slipping severely this game, their posts seem to be more of an attempt to blend in without slipping up or potentially harming their fellow scummates, plus the lack of something that could even be considered a defense despite posting makes me more suspicious along with pushing already suspected players while bringing up nothing new. I'm voting for Crystal.

(Only one I noticed quickly skimming his filter that agreed with me, though we both held similar suspicion on Ryan88/Cariad though I'm not sure if that auto-clears both)


tl;dr good kill good kill

- - - Post Merge - - -

rip my quotes

Reply to Minties: "Mega case" coming later, though it'll probably be short paragraphs because I'm not entirely sure if I'll have enough time to cram a few large posts in. If I didn't go assist with clearing out a flooded basement of "loss" items, large gun safes, and other luggage I'd probably have spent some time doing so.

Reply to Alise: No that doesn't auto-clear Ryan88, in older games Mafia used to have two roleblockers before roles like Mugger and Framer were introduced. Who knows, Dolby might have been their only one.

One thing that did bug me though was how fast some of you automatically trusted Alice, which for the record I'm not glad you did, but the risky mentality of lynch first, question later is kind of crazy. Still it was the gamble we needed, glad it paid off. It'll be interesting to see the outcome of night, because no vig and 1 to 0 mafia roleblockers leftover. Will scum aim for the talkers or will try going for power roles now?

 

[Ashtot]

I think we trusted Alice because she waited some time to claim so it seemed truthful and pro-town.

 

[KermitTea]

One scum down but holy crap Jello never shot. I think we could have won the game by now if she actually did something. Yes extended ban please.

With the death of Dolby it should be much easier to find the other scum. I think I have two theories on who they may be.

 

[Cory]

Like a forever ban.

 

[Byngo]

Dolby was scum (ﾉ◕ヮ◕)ﾉ*:･ﾟ✧ rejoice praise the lawd hallelujah (ﾉ◕ヮ◕)ﾉ*:･ﾟ✧ (◡‿◡✿)

Rip jello modkilled noob

 

[Cariad]

(⌒-⌒; ) Scum! Well done Alice. Now we've started, hopefully we'll find more.

 

[Jeremy]

The following is a table of posts made by players in defense of another player. Columns B - N are players defending. Rows 2 - 23 are the players that they defended. The cells display the post numbers, so you can view them for yourselves. Take this data for what it's worth because it will not give you the full picture. Obviously, some mafia strategies involve attacking teammates, not defending them. But I think this will still show us something. You should decide for yourself how to interpret it. Another useful table might be where one player agrees with another player, but it's a lot of work and I don't plan on doing that (I also doubt I will do something like this in future games). Also, I may have missed some defenses, fyi.

Link: http://i.imgur.com/EGoQd6s.png

So the first thing you should all be doing is looking at Dolby's row and column. I started making this table when the game started, so as soon as his role came out I looked at the table and was pretty surprised at how cleanly he connects to Sataric. Take it for what it's worth though- I'll let you all decide what to think about that. Another interesting thing is the consistent defense Sataric has given Karla. I don't know if that means anything, and I wouldn't pursue it unless Sataric turns out to be scum. Hopefully this will be useful for the next mafia death as well, but I wanted to post it now in case I'm killed tonight.

As for looking beyond the data, I think Minties only looks more suspicious after Dolby's lynch. This post gave me a funny feeling about her: http://www.belltreeforums.com/showt...-NIGHT-THREE&p=3756956&viewfull=1#post3756956

 

[Sataric]

Jeremy, that is very impressive work and I definitely applaud the amount of effort you must have put into that. However, I only recall defending Dolby fairly early on in the game when I simply had stronger scum reads on other people. He is very difficult for me to read, but I really feel that people often underestimate how much value he can add to a game when he's town, and I know I've defended him in several games before when people have been looking at lynching him early. I just like the guy, and I don't think it was fair how he was sort of the "default Day 1 lynch" for a long time. Perhaps I gave him the benefit of the doubt a bit too much, but he was never completely off my radar. I said this about him early:

Dolby - I think he's a diamond in the rough. Very dangerous if he's on the scum team though. But in recent games he has been very helpful to town as well. Normally when he's scum, he makes a massive case on someone almost right away, and then slips into the shadows and doesn't say a thing for the longest of times afterwards. That's not been his playstyle this game, so I am inclined to think he's innocent (or a mermaid?) but keep an eye on him nonetheless.

He did kind of turn more towards the playstyle that I described as the game went on, and I should have picked up on that sooner, but there were so many other people that really stuck out to me as scummy. (Especially Alise!)

But I am not going to deny that I have agreed with Karla a lot this game round. I got very strong town reads on him from really early on, and when he looked like he might be in trouble I really felt that it was primarily scummy people that tried to get him to look bad. Some of my early-game suspicions did come from how quickly people turned against him for really minor reasons. I would gladly defend him again, because I am nearly certain he isn't scum.

 

[EpicGamer12]

Phew, Jeremy, that's a lot of good evidence and patterns to go off of. Hopefully after the night, whoever dies will help us narrow down more scum. From the people Dolby has cleared I don't think it'll be too hard from here.

- - - Post Merge - - -

Cory [x]
ryan88 [x]
Minties
Alice [x]
Karen
KarlaKGB
Sataric
Ashtot
Tom
Trundle [x]
Cariad [x]
Yui-Z
alise
Lauren
Jeremy [x??]
Natty [x]

If I've put an [x] on someone, it means there is quite good evidence in the game they are not scum. I've done myself and the thieves, ryan88 and Cariad, who Dolby targeted in his posts, Alice who was the veteran who got Dolby lynched, and I put a questionable [x] by Jeremy's name because, while he has been contributing, especially now with his chart, he is not confirmed town. (I believe you to be town though!!)

So the 9 bolded hold the remaining mafia. Have to head to school, be on later though.

 

[Lauren]

Phew, Jeremy, that's a lot of good evidence and patterns to go off of. Hopefully after the night, whoever dies will help us narrow down more scum. From the people Dolby has cleared I don't think it'll be too hard from here.

- - - Post Merge - - -

Cory [x]
ryan88 [x]
Minties
Alice [x]
Karen
KarlaKGB
Sataric
Ashtot
Tom
Trundle [x]
Cariad [x]
Yui-Z
alise
Lauren
Jeremy [x??]
Natty [x]

If I've put an [x] on someone, it means there is quite good evidence in the game they are not scum. I've done myself and the thieves, ryan88 and Cariad, who Dolby targeted in his posts, Alice who was the veteran who got Dolby lynched, and I put a questionable [x] by Jeremy's name because, while he has been contributing, especially now with his chart, he is not confirmed town. (I believe you to be town though!!)

So the 9 bolded hold the remaining mafia. Have to head to school, be on later though.

I don't understand why I'm bolded but ok, you're entitled to think as you please.

 

[ryan88]

So who should I block?

 

[Jeremy]

Phew, Jeremy, that's a lot of good evidence and patterns to go off of. Hopefully after the night, whoever dies will help us narrow down more scum. From the people Dolby has cleared I don't think it'll be too hard from here.

- - - Post Merge - - -

Cory [x]
ryan88 [x]
Minties
Alice [x]
Karen
KarlaKGB
Sataric
Ashtot
Tom
Trundle [x]
Cariad [x]
Yui-Z
alise
Lauren
Jeremy [x??]
Natty [x]

If I've put an [x] on someone, it means there is quite good evidence in the game they are not scum. I've done myself and the thieves, ryan88 and Cariad, who Dolby targeted in his posts, Alice who was the veteran who got Dolby lynched, and I put a questionable [x] by Jeremy's name because, while he has been contributing, especially now with his chart, he is not confirmed town. (I believe you to be town though!!)

So the 9 bolded hold the remaining mafia. Have to head to school, be on later though.

From your list, the most suspicious in my mind (in order) are:

Sataric
Minties
Yui Z
KarlaKGB
Karen
alise

Although when we find out what the role of one of them is, it will affect my thoughts on the others. But I think we should lynch one of them tomorrow.

 

[Trent the Paladin]

So who should I block?

Just block me or Alise.

 

[Sataric]

Just block me or Alise.

Why you? That makes no sense to me. The Mafia Roleblocker is dead, and I doubt they had two. That means Ryan is likely Town, like he has claimed all along. If you are not scum, then why should he waste his ability on you instead of using it for something positive? You think that would clear you? It just makes you look bad to even suggest that, if you ask me. It would accomplish nothing if you're town, and it just seems like a cheap trick to make yourself look more innocent. In my eyes it accomplishes the opposite.

I also think that Trundle's list is pretty accurate. Not sure if it is flawless but he's definitely looking in the right direction, I feel. The question is, does he even want to the game to end before they have all the diamonds? I'm guessing no. So he might have intentionally switched something up in there.

~@ Jeremy - I'm sorry to hear that you find me very suspicious but I hope to be able to convince you that I'm innocent soon enough!

 

[Jeremy]

Why you? That makes no sense to me. The Mafia Roleblocker is dead, and I doubt they had two. That means Ryan is likely Town, like he has claimed all along. If you are not scum, then why should he waste his ability on you instead of using it for something positive? You think that would clear you? It just makes you look bad to even suggest that, if you ask me. It would accomplish nothing if you're town, and it just seems like a cheap trick to make yourself look more innocent. In my eyes it accomplishes the opposite.

I also think that Trundle's list is pretty accurate. Not sure if it is flawless but he's definitely looking in the right direction, I feel. The question is, does he even want to the game to end before they have all the diamonds? I'm guessing no. So he might have intentionally switched something up in there.

~@ Jeremy - I'm sorry to hear that you find me very suspicious but I hope to be able to convince you that I'm innocent soon enough!

I think Tom is trying to get ryan to block supposed greens so he doesn't do more harm than good.

Sataric, what do you think about Minties and Yui Z?

 

[Jeremy]

Also, we're a long ways away from ending the game since we have no vig, so I doubt they are worrying too much about not finding enough diamonds.

 

[Minties]

The following is a table of posts made by players in defense of another player. Columns B - N are players defending. Rows 2 - 23 are the players that they defended. The cells display the post numbers, so you can view them for yourselves. Take this data for what it's worth because it will not give you the full picture. Obviously, some mafia strategies involve attacking teammates, not defending them. But I think this will still show us something. You should decide for yourself how to interpret it. Another useful table might be where one player agrees with another player, but it's a lot of work and I don't plan on doing that (I also doubt I will do something like this in future games). Also, I may have missed some defenses, fyi.

Link: http://i.imgur.com/EGoQd6s.png

So the first thing you should all be doing is looking at Dolby's row and column. I started making this table when the game started, so as soon as his role came out I looked at the table and was pretty surprised at how cleanly he connects to Sataric. Take it for what it's worth though- I'll let you all decide what to think about that. Another interesting thing is the consistent defense Sataric has given Karla. I don't know if that means anything, and I wouldn't pursue it unless Sataric turns out to be scum. Hopefully this will be useful for the next mafia death as well, but I wanted to post it now in case I'm killed tonight.

As for looking beyond the data, I think Minties only looks more suspicious after Dolby's lynch. This post gave me a funny feeling about her: http://www.belltreeforums.com/showt...-NIGHT-THREE&p=3756956&viewfull=1#post3756956

Well I'm glad you've finally decided to put some effort into a mafia game for once (and read the thread!) and all it took was me making a case on you. I do find it kind of funny how perfect the timing of this post was, to be honest. I still don't trust you because I'm not as gullible as Trundle. Let me guess, your funny feeling was because I didn't post a novel - like most players so far or because I voted for Dolby and trusted Alice's claim - like 10 other players or because I pointed out Tom's empty promises of cases - the same thing he chastised me for. Your absolute desperate, almost manic attempt to get the one person mainly suspicious of you out of the game is so obvious.

Also can I bring up something that has been on my mind? Why has everyone actually forgotten that we don't know the thieves win con fully? For all we know, the whole game could end when they get their diamonds and town + scum both lose. I highly doubt Tina would just stick some random 3rd party in the game and say HEY GO COLLECT DIAMONDS because then why would they help town or mafia at all? They just have to not die. I've just been thinking about it for the past day or so because they have lied to us before.

and before everyone gets on their high horses again - TODAY (it is 12am) IS MY MOVING DAY AS IS TOMORROW. I WILL NOT BE AROUND TO POST OFTEN.

 

[Jeremy]

Well I'm glad you've finally decided to put some effort into a mafia game for once (and read the thread!) and all it took was me making a case on you. I do find it kind of funny how perfect the timing of this post was, to be honest. I still don't trust you because I'm not as gullible as Trundle. Let me guess, your funny feeling was because I didn't post a novel - like most players so far or because I voted for Dolby and trusted Alice's claim - like 10 other players or because I pointed out Tom's empty promises of cases - the same thing he chastised me for. Your absolute desperate, almost manic attempt to get the one person mainly suspicious of you out of the game is so obvious.

Also can I bring up something that has been on my mind? Why has everyone actually forgotten that we don't know the thieves win con fully? For all we know, the whole game could end when they get their diamonds and town + scum both lose. I highly doubt Tina would just stick some random 3rd party in the game and say HEY GO COLLECT DIAMONDS because then why would they help town or mafia at all? They just have to not die. I've just been thinking about it for the past day or so because they have lied to us before.

and before everyone gets on their high horses again - TODAY (it is 12am) IS MY MOVING DAY AS IS TOMORROW. I WILL NOT BE AROUND TO POST OFTEN.

Damn it Minties, I probably read the thread more than anyone else. And I was creating that since the beginning of the game, goodness! Let's lynch you just for being so rude in mafia all the time!