Exactly that, I don't want Ryan blocking doc from possibly saving someone. We still need to figure out whether or not Cariad is truly blue. Thoughts later, might use Jer's chart to help with several mini-cases.
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Mafia TBT Mafia XV: The Siren's Call (Game Over/Mafia & Third Party Win!)
- Thread starter Chris
- Start date
Exactly that, I don't want Ryan blocking doc from possibly saving someone. We still need to figure out whether or not Cariad is truly blue. Thoughts later, might use Jer's chart to help with several mini-cases.
Cory
Senior Member
Well even though you think I am not scum. I think you are the real scumlord.
lol jk alise is the scumlord
My thoughts post Dolby flip:
I challenged him on Day 2, putting my vote in for him along with Alice and Jello.
http://www.belltreeforums.com/showt...iren-s-Call-NIGHT-THREE&p=3736522#post3736522
I can see from this that he liked my plan about shooting the thieves. From Dolby's filter, I can see that all the people he has pushed for lynch or attacked, have been innocent:
Oath
Me*
Superpenguin
ryan and Cariad*
Jellofish
* yes I know we haven't been completely cleared, but I know I'm innocent, and ryan and Cariad are 95% town at this stage
Because of this, I'm satisfied that the thieves are who they say they are (though still wary of their win condition).
---
What's giving me a headache is that one of Jeremy and Minties is scum. I can't link Dolby to either of them. Jeremy posting that spreadsheet is all well and good, but does it hurt his team much if he is scum? I don't think so - there's little in there to link Dolby to anyone. According to the spreadsheet, Dolby was defended by Sataric (who has defended at least half of the playerlist in some way), and Yui (who has also defended at least half of the list). Dolby himself defends Sataric once. Suspicious, sure, but that one post itself is weak. He's soft defending Sataric in order to frame oath.
As for Minties, well some of her posts are bordering on ad-hominem attacks which aren't constructive. Her post count isn't that high, but this game isn't about that. She was one of the first players to make an effort with a useful post. Her voting wasn't unusual - she was on all of the lynchwagons but that doesn't mean much. (Of note on the first day, Jeremy expressed doubt about SP and voted alise at the last minute. If only our ****ing vig wasn't useless and shot alise at some point). Yes Minties's activity waned somewhat for a few days, but she's back up now with good posts. I just can't scumread her, so I still place Jeremy ahead of her.
We'll see what happens tonight.
I challenged him on Day 2, putting my vote in for him along with Alice and Jello.
http://www.belltreeforums.com/showt...iren-s-Call-NIGHT-THREE&p=3736522#post3736522
I can see from this that he liked my plan about shooting the thieves. From Dolby's filter, I can see that all the people he has pushed for lynch or attacked, have been innocent:
Oath
Me*
Superpenguin
ryan and Cariad*
Jellofish
* yes I know we haven't been completely cleared, but I know I'm innocent, and ryan and Cariad are 95% town at this stage
Because of this, I'm satisfied that the thieves are who they say they are (though still wary of their win condition).
---
What's giving me a headache is that one of Jeremy and Minties is scum. I can't link Dolby to either of them. Jeremy posting that spreadsheet is all well and good, but does it hurt his team much if he is scum? I don't think so - there's little in there to link Dolby to anyone. According to the spreadsheet, Dolby was defended by Sataric (who has defended at least half of the playerlist in some way), and Yui (who has also defended at least half of the list). Dolby himself defends Sataric once. Suspicious, sure, but that one post itself is weak. He's soft defending Sataric in order to frame oath.
As for Minties, well some of her posts are bordering on ad-hominem attacks which aren't constructive. Her post count isn't that high, but this game isn't about that. She was one of the first players to make an effort with a useful post. Her voting wasn't unusual - she was on all of the lynchwagons but that doesn't mean much. (Of note on the first day, Jeremy expressed doubt about SP and voted alise at the last minute. If only our ****ing vig wasn't useless and shot alise at some point). Yes Minties's activity waned somewhat for a few days, but she's back up now with good posts. I just can't scumread her, so I still place Jeremy ahead of her.
We'll see what happens tonight.
Cory
Senior Member
Yay karla approve. I am happy now.
I had Minties pinned down as Town pretty early on. I think she was the first player in the game to make a post that was incredibly well-written and solid all the way through, and that made me feel that she was innocent. But now several days have passed, and I am quite frankly very surprised she's still alive at this stage of the game. She has made some good contributions I think, but I would never underestimate her. She's very clever, and if you (Jeremy) and/or Tom isn't the evil mastermind behind the scum team then she very well might be.
As for Yui Z, I've been a bit back and forth regarding her. Think I said that before as well. Everytime she posts, she does mention a bunch of things that make sense, and that it's easy to agree with - But at the same time, she has brought very few "brand new ideas" to the table. That makes me worried, because in the past when she's been town, she has contributed more and tried harder. That being said, she's not my top scum-read right now, at least.
I would be happy if you could tell me what it is about me that you find so suspicious! I definitely do not trust you yet, but your chart was pretty nice, and I do think that Trundle is on the right track with his suspects as I mentioned before.
Mini Cases
More or less after relaxing for a bit last night, I called it a night instead of staying up and working on mini-cases and then trying to blow up a few minis into a larger case. Sadly I'm on mobile, so quotes and formatting will not be provided but I'll aim to provide post numbers.
I'll start this off with rehashing Trundle's list, but with a few more Xs for people I truly believe are town.
Cory [x]
ryan88 [x]
Minties [x?]
Alice [x]
Karen
KarlaKGB
Sataric [x]
Ashtot
Tom [x] (Like I wouldn't clear myself)
Trundle [x]
Cariad [x]
Yui-Z
alise
Lauren
Jeremy [x??]
Natty [x]
Not that many more Xs, but hopefully it narrows the list a little. You don't have to believe I'm in no, but I'm pretty sure the other Xs we can trust. Minites and Jeremy are difficult to get a read on, and I originally thought Jeremy was our vigilante because very few others agreed with not shooting the thieves. Jeremy's chart is kind of useful, but like a few others pointed out how can we be sure scum has defended scum that much this game?
Individual Thoughts:
Cory
Thief, no cc. Confirmed by Natty and Trundle as they share a quick topic. Still wary about their win condition as I don't personally believe it would change mid-game. Clarified perhaps, but changed?
Ryan88
Don't expect much from him truthfully. Supposed town roleblocker, thought suspicious by Dolby. Weird choices and dumb bandwagoning. You died in Nub Mafia, please step up and help us out here. We need more contributions from all players, you can't solo play this.
Minites
Hard to get a solid read on, as when I felt her contributions are beginning to lack after Day 1. Fought back and posted a solid case on Jeremy. Will be away for Day Four.
Alice
Extremely quiet until Dolby claimed Veteran, revealed her true role as Jeremy the Heartbreaker (Veteran). Secured Dolby lynch. Expect slightly increased activity now.
Karen
Aside from bringing up Dad's quotes and using them to build a case on Dolby, I can't think of any memorable posts of Karen's that stuck out to me. 50/50 on Karen honestly.
KarlaKGB
Would have expected another case from you by now honestly, not because "lol mafia god" but because of the varying filters you've read through. Aside from that and the slightly weird tunnel vision with Jeremy, I'm pretty sure he was the first to bring up Dolby. Still you're crafty enough to strategically sacrifice a teammate or at least cast suspicion on one.
Sataric
I've got a few theories on Sataric, but until Sat dies or comes out with it, I'm not going to share just yet. Fairly neutral, but I'm pretty certain Sat is town. For now.
Ashtot
What are you doing brutha? /hulkhoganvoice Quick see through your filter and there isn't much there of value. Loads of one liners, you go from jumping on Minties to jumping on Jeremy to riding out the Dolbywagon. Where's the paragraphs mi amigo?
Tom
Hi, I'm Tom and I'm a jackass.
Trundle
I think he's a little more trustworthy of the thieves. He actually seems to have town's interests in mind while I think Cory and maybe Natty really don't care who they side with. Question to you though, did Tina actually change your win condition?
Cariad
Possible blue, confirmed blocked by Ryan. Suspected by Dolby. Tries...ish. One of Minties suspects for being scum. Action unknown.
Yui-Z
"Slippery". Not sure what to make of her this game. Could be scum, might not be. Last post was about voting on the Dolbywagon. Have your suspicions changed now that one of your five have flipped town and Dolby flipped red?
Alise
Generally inactive, generally unhelpful, generally a pain. " Tries" to defend themsef, but none it really holds water. Doesn't try to contribute an original thought aside from a very weak case on Sataric. Claimed Aiden the First Mate (townie). Possible safe claim for sirens?
Lauren
Something about Lauren irks me. Like there's really contributive posts from Lauren and then there's really ****ty posts from Lauren. Yes, I'm being hypocritical but something just really rubs me wrong. She'll probably be someone I look note in depth to.
Jeremy
Weird vibes from Jeremy the entire game, from defending the thieves from being shot at to just cryptic posts. I thought he was the vigilante until Jello died, now I'm not sure where Jer stands. The defense chart seems handy, but is it really? Dolby didn't much defend anyone, just agreed with a few suspicious and pointed fingers at a small number.
Natty
Thief. Contributes more than Cory, but less than Trundle. Was building a case on Ashtot that I would have loved reading. At least a summarized version now.
Some thoughts:
* How many blues do you guys think we have left? We have Ryan, we have Alice, and we have Cariad possibly. Does one or two more blues seem reasonable?
* What if Dolby claimed Veteran to draw out the real one? Sure there's plenty of townies they could slaughter, but what if scum was worried one of their next targets was Veteran? Just a thought.
* Has anyone analyzed votes since the SP lynch? Looked at the ones originally hesitant to vote Dolby?
More or less after relaxing for a bit last night, I called it a night instead of staying up and working on mini-cases and then trying to blow up a few minis into a larger case. Sadly I'm on mobile, so quotes and formatting will not be provided but I'll aim to provide post numbers.
I'll start this off with rehashing Trundle's list, but with a few more Xs for people I truly believe are town.
Cory [x]
ryan88 [x]
Minties [x?]
Alice [x]
Karen
KarlaKGB
Sataric [x]
Ashtot
Tom [x] (Like I wouldn't clear myself)
Trundle [x]
Cariad [x]
Yui-Z
alise
Lauren
Jeremy [x??]
Natty [x]
Not that many more Xs, but hopefully it narrows the list a little. You don't have to believe I'm in no, but I'm pretty sure the other Xs we can trust. Minites and Jeremy are difficult to get a read on, and I originally thought Jeremy was our vigilante because very few others agreed with not shooting the thieves. Jeremy's chart is kind of useful, but like a few others pointed out how can we be sure scum has defended scum that much this game?
Individual Thoughts:
Cory
Thief, no cc. Confirmed by Natty and Trundle as they share a quick topic. Still wary about their win condition as I don't personally believe it would change mid-game. Clarified perhaps, but changed?
Ryan88
Don't expect much from him truthfully. Supposed town roleblocker, thought suspicious by Dolby. Weird choices and dumb bandwagoning. You died in Nub Mafia, please step up and help us out here. We need more contributions from all players, you can't solo play this.
Minites
Hard to get a solid read on, as when I felt her contributions are beginning to lack after Day 1. Fought back and posted a solid case on Jeremy. Will be away for Day Four.
Alice
Extremely quiet until Dolby claimed Veteran, revealed her true role as Jeremy the Heartbreaker (Veteran). Secured Dolby lynch. Expect slightly increased activity now.
Karen
Aside from bringing up Dad's quotes and using them to build a case on Dolby, I can't think of any memorable posts of Karen's that stuck out to me. 50/50 on Karen honestly.
KarlaKGB
Would have expected another case from you by now honestly, not because "lol mafia god" but because of the varying filters you've read through. Aside from that and the slightly weird tunnel vision with Jeremy, I'm pretty sure he was the first to bring up Dolby. Still you're crafty enough to strategically sacrifice a teammate or at least cast suspicion on one.
Sataric
I've got a few theories on Sataric, but until Sat dies or comes out with it, I'm not going to share just yet. Fairly neutral, but I'm pretty certain Sat is town. For now.
Ashtot
What are you doing brutha? /hulkhoganvoice Quick see through your filter and there isn't much there of value. Loads of one liners, you go from jumping on Minties to jumping on Jeremy to riding out the Dolbywagon. Where's the paragraphs mi amigo?
Tom
Hi, I'm Tom and I'm a jackass.
Trundle
I think he's a little more trustworthy of the thieves. He actually seems to have town's interests in mind while I think Cory and maybe Natty really don't care who they side with. Question to you though, did Tina actually change your win condition?
Cariad
Possible blue, confirmed blocked by Ryan. Suspected by Dolby. Tries...ish. One of Minties suspects for being scum. Action unknown.
Yui-Z
"Slippery". Not sure what to make of her this game. Could be scum, might not be. Last post was about voting on the Dolbywagon. Have your suspicions changed now that one of your five have flipped town and Dolby flipped red?
Alise
Generally inactive, generally unhelpful, generally a pain. " Tries" to defend themsef, but none it really holds water. Doesn't try to contribute an original thought aside from a very weak case on Sataric. Claimed Aiden the First Mate (townie). Possible safe claim for sirens?
Lauren
Something about Lauren irks me. Like there's really contributive posts from Lauren and then there's really ****ty posts from Lauren. Yes, I'm being hypocritical but something just really rubs me wrong. She'll probably be someone I look note in depth to.
Jeremy
Weird vibes from Jeremy the entire game, from defending the thieves from being shot at to just cryptic posts. I thought he was the vigilante until Jello died, now I'm not sure where Jer stands. The defense chart seems handy, but is it really? Dolby didn't much defend anyone, just agreed with a few suspicious and pointed fingers at a small number.
Natty
Thief. Contributes more than Cory, but less than Trundle. Was building a case on Ashtot that I would have loved reading. At least a summarized version now.
Some thoughts:
* How many blues do you guys think we have left? We have Ryan, we have Alice, and we have Cariad possibly. Does one or two more blues seem reasonable?
* What if Dolby claimed Veteran to draw out the real one? Sure there's plenty of townies they could slaughter, but what if scum was worried one of their next targets was Veteran? Just a thought.
* Has anyone analyzed votes since the SP lynch? Looked at the ones originally hesitant to vote Dolby?
The only analyses of his posts is my table so far. I don't think anybody hesitated to vote for Dolby after Alice claimed. It's grasping at straws, sure, but Minties' reaction stood out to me because, instead of being completely enthusiastic about it, she mixed in some complaints with her post. When the news came out, I wasn't thinking about Alice not claiming earlier than she did. I was just thinking, "finally we have a lead." Something else was on Minties' mind, possibly frustration over losing teammate. I realize this is very minor, but it's the best we can do when everyone jumped ship to vote for him. I think Sataric had a similarly strange response (overly explained) when we started voting for Dolby as well. Maybe I'm reading too much into it since I brought his name up before though, I don't know.
Here is my post against him on Day 2: http://www.belltreeforums.com/showt...Call-NIGHT-THREE/page53&p=3733118#post3733118
If Jeremy brought him up before that, then please point it out.
Regarding looking at yesterday's votes, I did that and couldn't draw anything from it. Because of the nature of the vote (strong evidence that led to many votes piling on), you can't really pick out scum who are jumping ship. I couldn't see anyone who was hesitant to vote Dolby AFTER Alice's claim.
What I did note was Trundle and Lauren's posts, that basically were "yeah the evidence against Dolby is good, but I don't want to be seen as bandwagoning so I'm going to stick with my current vote". Normally I would say that it's pretty scummy to be worrying about your town image. However, in this case, with no way to save Dolby, I would see every scum player jumping onto his wagon just to be safe. With this in mind, I put Town in the town camp now.
For the record, I don't think I mentioned Dolby until after he died. Except when I thought it was strange Karen was voting for him despite his undisputed (at the time) vet claim.
Can't even tell if this is for or against me by the way. I'll look through everything when I'm back from a meeting in about an hour ish.
Take me Fool's Gold then, I don't want it.
I pointed out in an earlier post that she was very aggressive, actively pushing targets for lynch when she was the scum DT in Frozen. Not so much in this game, which is why I didn't scumread her.
He was dying anyway, all scum would have jumped on to him anyway so i kept my vote as is. I didnt see any point jumping on him. It wouldnt have killed him any quicker than he was.
Tom, make your case, honestly, I don't care, im not scum, I'm town. If I'm honest, I'm expecting scum to kill me soon anyway.
why do you think scum is going to kill you?
EpicGamer12
Senior Member
To settle the claims, I'd like to know; where did my thief team claim we had a change of win condition in the middle of the game? There have been no changes as far as I know. After I see it I can answer the full truth that I know.
My bad, win condition unchanged but whether or not you guys leave after getting the seven chaos emeralds did supposedly.
I just expect them too if im honest, no real reason.
