So, I remain committed to Toads/Antonio being the only really viable team that I can think of right now, but I did end up unvoting yesterday just to go through the scenarios. Right now, basically the only team that I can see Vanessa on from my PoV is Vanessa/Punchy but that's basically my nightmare world. I really don't see Vanessa with Toads or Antonio, and especially Antonio, because she made the choice of scumreading Toads when she could have very easily townread him and went for me. Punchy could honestly be a team with technically everybody so far, but there's nothing to strongly indicate that like it does Toads/Antonio
But as I said yesterday, scum doesn't fail this even if they are on it, so I want to go back and reevaluate this belief
Why Vanessa doesn't fail this
Only world's imo are Vanessa/Punchy. Vanessa/Toads kinda exists, but why not pick him for the mission and blame him, hoping that town doesn't think there's a double fail. Regardless, Vanessa regardless of her teammate has a pretty clear path to victory and failing it here forces town to reevaluate, fail round 4 with me or Antonio, and round 5 with the other. Moreovre, if Punchy is town, from his perspective the teams become Vanessa/Toads or Vanessa/Antonio. But both of these I really don't think are viable
Why Punchy doesn't fail this
All teams with Punchy really make sense, but if he passes it he basically had a free pass before this to be in all missions. He just has to display patience and get in rounds 4 and 5. This is pretty much the exact reason why Vanessa/Punchy won't fail this as well because a fail forces a major reevaluation of our two biggest townleans
Why Toads should not be included
It's just in the best interests of Toads to fail this, with the exception of the Toads/Punchy world, because Punchy remains committed to Toads/Dolby. This will apparently provide evidence of this and not vindicate me like Antonio being on a team would, and round 4 goes Vanessa/Punchy/Antonio and we all lose that way. In the world where Toads/Punchy exists (somehow) no information is really obtained an we still leave Punchy on the team because me and Vanessa still will think that Toads/Antonio is most viable (or possibly me/Punchy).
The mission fails as a frame job on Toads, which is really the most obvious shortsighted scenario of all time. We don't reevaluate, and we fail mission 4. That easy for scum
Regardless, this mission passes.
At present, I still believe in Toads/Antonio but I'm gonna devote a segment of this post to discussing why Ness/Antonio is impossible because its apparently viable
The Sendoff
Haven't umm caught up yet (or read anything at all, been busy with college). Let me read first.
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Dolby is scum imo, didn't act like this last game.
I like to put forward punchy and toad please. (I'm still quite confused on the setup so clarification would be nice)..
I'm sorry, but there is just no world where Antonio does NOT send himself or Ness on the mission, and he even had a free pass to send Ness. Me nad Punchy were talking about it for quite a bit, and Antonio had a free pass to send a scummate, but he didn't. Why doesn't he send Ness and get some towncred once Ness is replaced, or minimize towncred given to town players? Because they aren't teamed.
Ok yeah that definitely makes Antonio sound suspicious imo.
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If I were scum why would she send the whole scumteam on a mission isn't that a bit obvious
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Are we voting yay to the me/ryumia mission then? I think it sounds like a fine idea but maybe I'm missing something
Vanessas first read, a scumread of Antonio when there was some space to paint him as confused town who didn't know what he was doing. Again, space to townread or include a teammate that wasn't taken. I also believe that Ryu doesn't put the whole scumteam on a mission
Reading through the thread Toads/Antomia is the team that makes the most sense to me. Punchy could technically be with anyone I guess but he seems to be acting as his usual sporadic town self. I can't see Dolby with Toads or Antomia after his interactions with them, so if he is scum it has to be with punchy. Which is realistic, maybe his strategy was to townread Punchy fast and get him under the radar, but Toads/Antomia is definitely more sus right now.
Just more throwing Antonio's slot under the bus but at this point it could be distancing
But again
Antonio throws out a mission that doesn't have Ness on it despite being urged by town to do so. The safe play to make himself look good is to send his scummate on the mission, which minimizes the towncred given out to town members, and in a 2+1 world gives Ness's replacement free reign to fail the next mission. He doesn't NOT send out Ness if they're teamed. Vanessa comes in with a scumread on Antonio, and Ryu proposes both of them for the mission. Again, not teamed. Their early game actions make it so obvious
from most to least
punchy vanessa toads
although i am also thing of putting vanessa last cos of the whole ness ragequitting thing
assuming 2 scum are on the mission
punchy toads vanessa??
Actually put mental work into putting Vanessa below Toads on the townread scale (or work to elevate Toads I would say)
So again, what does that leave us with Antonio's mission
Again, pointing towards Toads.
I had been advocating for Punchy/Ness, instead Antonio puts forward Punchy/Toads. If he wanted to be townread he had an easy motivation for putting forward Ness as well, and less towncred would go out to town members because Ness was physically incapable of failing. Instead he sends Toads, and even votes on my own team, with Toads on it
which I was trying to sink at the time. It's pretty clear that he intends for Toads to be on the mission no matter what. He sends Toads because he wants towncred for him, not to spread towncred around the remaining townies. Dedenne's first reads were that I was 99% scum and TOADS, not Vanessa, was town. She even put work into elevating Toads above Vanessa, who should be clear if they think I'm scum, for the purpose of making Toads look more town. She's backed off of that point now because it looks bad for her, but her play has also been underwhelming
This is really stream of consciousness honestly
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So very likely team at this point
Toads/Antonio
Toads/Antonio
Toads/Antonio
And the rest
Vanessa/Punchy
Punchy/Toads Punchy sunk the me/Toads team first round, and no voted a team with himself on it that Antonio put forward. Not teamed behavior
Punchy/Antonio
Vanessa/Toads Yeah, I don't think that Vanessa would SR Toads over me when everyone else was
Strikes through indicate that I think the teams are more unlikely
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There should be a strike through Vanessa/Punchy to because I don't think that it's really likely, but I was thinking in lines of actions done throughout the game to make the teams less likely when making that list
