Mafia TBT Nub Mafia V: Daycare Mafia - Endgame - Town wins!

[toadsworthy]

1. Would you prefer being Town or Mafia? doesn't everyone want to be mafia? although the doctor is the most interesting person imo
2. Which row/column are you hoping this game set up is? A seems fun
3. What timezone are you in and how active will you be? EST and I'm most active on weekdays as I work a lot weekends
4. Name a random person in this game who could be mafia? I'll pick helloxcutiee since she hasn't responded yet
5. What's your favourite food? uhhhhh, Brownies

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guys for Town I think its best if we no lynch though.... the mafia would want us to pick someone to lynch, since its not them... as much as I have my suspicions of Lynn as well, I think its best if we do no lynch

 

[Chrystina]

Hey Ness, you getting any salty Binding of Isaac flashbacks from this?
top kek

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Anyway, I guess I'd better do the questions.

1. Town, I'm a crappy mafia as some of you might know.
2. 3 seems pretty op for town to me, but I do like a good classic setup so 2 I'd say.
3. AEST and I'll try and be on often.
4. Toadsworthy? Just a hunch, not sure.
5. Hot dogs. We're packing hot dogs for the road. You know, hot dogs get a bad rep. They got a cool shape, they got protein. You like hot dogs, right?

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Also, just pointing out meow is online, so hopefully they'll come on.

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No, not meow, hello. That one.
ffs rune come on

helloxcutiee I catch lurking here and there since yesterday. CALLING YOU OUT GIRL.

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1. Would you prefer being Town or Mafia? doesn't everyone want to be mafia? although the doctor is the most interesting person imo
2. Which row/column are you hoping this game set up is? A seems fun
3. What timezone are you in and how active will you be? EST and I'm most active on weekdays as I work a lot weekends
4. Name a random person in this game who could be mafia? I'll pick helloxcutiee since she hasn't responded yet
5. What's your favourite food? uhhhhh, Brownies

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guys for Town I think its best if we no lynch though.... the mafia would want us to pick someone to lynch, since its not them... as much as I have my suspicions of Lynn as well, I think its best if we do no lynch

hmm. I will wait to see what lynn has to say about what I brought up.

 

[N e s s]

If Helloxcutiee or Taesaek don't post soon, I will prod them for inactivity.

Prods generally happen once every 24 hours of inactivity. I count prods to be a whole 24 hours, with 3 being the limited number of prods you can receive. A prod will last an entire Day/night cycle. If you get 3 prods, its an instant replace in and you're out of the game, and the replacee will take up the former slot. Please remember to be active, as i'd generally prefer to not do this to any of you considering we only have 9 players this round.

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Helloxcutiee and Taesaek have been prodded.

 

[illunie]

Well, I guess I have to talk about why no lynch is a bad idea.

Why No Lynching Day 1 Is A Bad Idea
A scientific paper written by Dr Rune Raider.

DISCLAIMER: This post is completely objective, and does not take into account any special mafia or town role modifiers. It also does not take into account scum hunting or any subjective variables, as it would be too hard to take into account here and it would be too complicated to analyse at the moment. For the purpose of this scientific paper, it will be assumed that there are no blue roles, everyone is a townie, every mafia player is a mafia goon and lynches are chosen by complete random.

Because of there being 9 players in the game, and the ratio of mafia on TBT being 1 to 3 rounded down (so 1 mafia to every 3 townies) the mostly likely amount of scum is two. Also, as shown by Ness in the OP about role pms, notice how it only ever metions one mafia partner in the scum role pms. Therefore, it's very likely there are two mafia in the game.

Because of this, the current ratio is 7 town to 2 mafia. Mafia wins when there are at least as many town as mafia, so we'll lose when there's two town left. If we were to lynch every day, and mafia was to kill town every day, then assuming we mislynch town every day mafia would win at the end of day 3. (7-5=2) Therefore, we have two mislynches and three lynches to get one mafia. This also means that we have 4 lynches in total to kill 2 mafia.

If we no lynched, then the ratio of town to mafia would be 6 to 2 on d2. This means that mafia win will only be delayed to the end of night 3. This means that instead of having 3 lynches to kill 1 mafia, and 4 lynches to kill 2 mafia, or a required success rate of at least 50%, but we'll only have 2 lynches to kill one mafia, and 3 lynches to kill 2 mafia, meaning we have a required success rate of 66.6%. Therefore, we can conclude that no lynching is objectively the worst option in this situation.

TL;DR: No lynching means we need to get 2 out of 3 lynches, while lynching means we only need to get 2 out of 4 lynches correct, meaning town should lynch on day 1.

 

[toadsworthy]

ummmm, your logic isn't really convincing me ^
just because being right on 2 out of 3 lynches sounds worse than being right on 2 out of 4 lynches, doesn't mean its the stat you should focus on and that other circumstances don't matter on top of that. Like having more resources with more people
we want to keep the ratio of townie to Mafia as high as possible for as long as possible... so we shouldn't be offing ourselves for the Mafia unless we can come to a good consensus or have good reason to vote someone... if we lynch someone today and are wrong, we put ourselves at a worse disadvantage than if we no lynch, and thats what I'm focusing on now!

 

[mother of all llamas]

Well okay, Ness just confirmed 2 mafia in the OP, so 1 KP. It's good to know at least.
As for todays lynch I don't really expect to get mafia, but for the meanwhile, I'd be good for a Hello/Taesaek lynch due to their sheer quietness or someone else depending

 

[illunie]

ummmm, your logic isn't really convincing me ^
just because being right on 2 out of 3 lynches sounds worse than being right on 2 out of 4 lynches, doesn't mean its the stat you should focus on and that other circumstances don't matter on top of that. Like having more resources with more people
we want to keep the ratio of townie to Mafia as high as possible for as long as possible... so we shouldn't be offing ourselves for the Mafia unless we can come to a good consensus or have good reason to vote someone... if we lynch someone today and are wrong, we put ourselves at a worse disadvantage than if we no lynch, and thats what I'm focusing on now!

No, I'm saying that if we lynched today rather than no lynching, with would have another chance to lynch mafia. We aren't at a disadvantage if you lynch someone who has had interactions with multiple people today as we'll be able to take information from that and use it to read others. This is also why lynching an inactive today is useless.

 

[helloxcutiee]

1. Would you prefer being Town or Mafia? Town
2. Which row/column are you hoping this game set up is? C or #2
3. What timezone are you in and how active will you be? PST. I can't say how active I'll be though since things usually come up on random times during the day.
4. Name a random person in this game who could be mafia? Not really sure right now.
5. What's your favourite food? I'll go with pancakes.

 

[BungoTheElf]

Sure, why not. I'm sure the questionnaire will bring the others who havent posted yet to do so:

1. Would you prefer being Town or Mafia? town, not ready for mafia action
2. Which row/column are you hoping this game set up is? C, having the doctor is always nice.
3. What timezone are you in and how active will you be? EDT. I have no life, aka I will be active. and less of a lurker than how I was in Binding of Isaac.
4. Name a random person in this game who could be mafia? could be anyone. im not gonna read on anyone yet, considering about half have yet to post.
5. What's your favourite food? is coffee a food?


@lynn105 - I find it interesting you listed which mafia roles you would like to see in the game... I do agree that having the roleblocker would be easy to tell but WHY would you even want it in the game at all.

No- I said that I would like to see the goons, but that having role blocker would help us determine the other roles better
((sort of more continued in response downward))

was just wondering why you are announcing your support for town when it would be assumed that we're all supporting town. Does that make sense? And I don't see how your post says anything about wanting to do better in past games. I'm sorry maybe it was rude of me "to point fingers" as you say so early. I apologize.

Not really rude or anything and you don't need to apologize at all lol but I just thought it kinda was quick I can see your point of view though

not really relevant but:
trying my best > trying better > better than before ?? I mean I still don't see how you think it as "announcing support" though - I mean it technically it is but it's just a thing you say "I'll try my best" "I'm doing my best" maybe I'm watching too many shows

Eh, even though I suggested a NL day 1 lynn105 is starting to be pretty sus.

1. Announcing support for town even though that's what we're all gonna be doing anyways.
2. Listed two scum roles they'd like to see in the questionnaire.

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Is there a countdown/timer for day 1? I'm blind sorry, don't see it.

I agree, the way she suggested those 2 mafia roles to be in the game was pretty off. Not sure if she has the possibility of being mafia or maybe she's just a little lost?
Oh and we have 26 hours left, so still plenty of time to select a lynch candidate.

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Well to be honest, she does have a good point either way, if we know there's a roleblocker, we know there's also going to be a Doctor and Cop or a Jailkeeper and Veteran (1-shot Bulletproof). Still a little iffy in my opinion still...

Just pointing out but I didn't suggest the roles... your question asked what row/column we would look for in the game- to make it easier for town it would be better for us to have against the goons since they wouldn't be able to block roles?? yk I don't know how you guys are reading it as but the easier opponents we go up against would be easier than to have a role blocker but at the same time easier to know what roles there are idk I'm just repeating myself I mean what I mean lol If you're wondering why I didn't mention any town roles it's because they're all pretty good row/columns either way (except row 1 is kinda meh)

No, I'm saying that if we lynched today rather than no lynching, with would have another chance to lynch mafia. We aren't at a disadvantage if you lynch someone who has had interactions with multiple people today as we'll be able to take information from that and use it to read others. This is also why lynching an inactive today is useless.

I really tried to make sense of your post there but I could really not keep up with your logic lol
I could bring up a buuuuunch of kind of contradicting and assuming things(towards myself in regards to this lynch/no lynch (note to self and you if you read: I'm considered suspicious, that nl=I live,good points but I don't really buy all of it scum might be smart,mentors new methods) key points that would be pathetic to bring up anyways since whenever I try to make a good content filled post everyone ignores it anyways) but It's easier to just say I kinda of do see your point in having a lynch now that I think about it but I'm really inbetween with everuthing I mean I even tried drawing out diagrams for the cycles but there's too many possiblities to branch out of what happens I mean someone could hit scum over night too many factors out too many assuming we don't get any scum at all means that scum is probs leading or just bandwagoning think people
I mean if I have to say overall I just thank thant the best thing to do with the low chance of hitting mafia today is to have 7:2 than 6:2 starting off into night where we know it will be 5:2 at the start of day 2 (refer to part where scum may be smart- info may not help, may even be misleading)
I think too deep and I've been writting this post for over an hour good ****ing night yes im bitter thansk for asking

 

[mother of all llamas]

Helloxcutie/taesaek, any opiniond about the game so far??

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/opinions not opiniond

 

[helloxcutiee]

Helloxcutie/taesaek, any opiniond about the game so far??

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/opinions not opiniond

Too hard to tell. Especially with it just being the first day so far. Hopefully things will pick up in later so all of us can make our votes.

 

[toadsworthy]

A vote was cast! but come on, you don't actually buy into that bogus logic about casting a lynch now actually gives us better odds do you? @alexi

 

[Chrystina]

No- I said that I would like to see the goons, but that having role blocker would help us determine the other roles better
((sort of more continued in response downward))

Oh I know. I just find it interesting you mentioned scum roles, rather than any town roles. To me, if you're scum & thinking like so, that's what you're going to mention for a question like that.

Just pointing out but I didn't suggest the roles... your question asked what row/column we would look for in the game- to make it easier for town it would be better for us to have against the goons since they wouldn't be able to block roles?? yk I don't know how you guys are reading it as but the easier opponents we go up against would be easier than to have a role blocker but at the same time easier to know what roles there are idk I'm just repeating myself I mean what I mean lol If you're wondering why I didn't mention any town roles it's because they're all pretty good row/columns either way (except row 1 is kinda meh)

I know this wasn't directed just towards me but I never did say you "suggested" the roles, just that you brought them up. Basically I'm reading it as: You're scum & know what the roles are. Day 1 questions are so great, aren't they?

Too hard to tell. Especially with it just being the first day so far. Hopefully things will pick up in later so all of us can make our votes.

Really? I would say things were/are picking up.

A vote was cast! but come on, you don't actually buy into that bogus logic about casting a lynch now actually gives us better odds do you? @alexi

Well to be honet, I TL;DR'd Rune's logic (sorry rune), as I was already reconsidering a NL before that post.
Just think of it in simpler terms: If we NL, Mafia gets control of the game. There's only two scum players, even if we mislynch it's not like we'd lose the game.

 

[Qwerty111]

I'm going to vote for taesaek unless they say something soon. Since it's kinda the only solid lead we have. Interestingly, their posts from pre game seem really aggressive. Though I hate to lynch on day 1, not saying anything at all is really sus.

1. Would you prefer being Town or Mafia? Town. Mafia is really stressful. Though I like being SK and stuff like that. I prefer working alone, I guess. (I'm exactly the same irl, for some reason.)
2. Which row/column are you hoping this game set up is? 2. Doctors are cool.
3. What timezone are you in and how active will you be? GMT. I won't be active near the end of phases, but I'll try to be as active as possible near the middle.
4. Name a random person in this game who could be mafia? ??? I don't know??? Me???? WHO EVEN KNOWS ANYMORE
5. What's your favourite food? chicken dippers or pomegranate. Mmmm.

 

[BungoTheElf]

Oh I know. I just find it interesting you mentioned scum roles, rather than any town roles. To me, if you're scum & thinking like so, that's what you're going to mention for a question like that.


I know this wasn't directed just towards me but I never did say you "suggested" the roles, just that you brought them up. Basically I'm reading it as: You're scum & know what the roles are. Day 1 questions are so great, aren't they?

Really? I would say things were/are picking up.

Well to be honet, I TL;DR'd Rune's logic (sorry rune), as I was already reconsidering a NL before that post.
Just think of it in simpler terms: If we NL, Mafia gets control of the game. There's only two scum players, even if we mislynch it's not like we'd lose the game.

Huhhhh Idk about that since I feel like it would be easier for scum to just lay low on a question like that and not bring it up at all?
and yeah the suggested part was towards mother of all llamas not you since I did mention them, but wasn't saying the roles were in the game?? Since the question was asking which row/column you would hope to have not what roles you think are in the game (maybe they just used the wrong wording is what I think)

2. Which row/column are you hoping this game set up is? Any with just goon but then again I guess having role blocker would make it easier to tell what row/column we have?

but yeah I don't really get your "You're scum & know what the roles are." part, I can't really connect it to what I said

and just wondering since you voted for me, do you genuinely think I'm scum? or because there's nothing better to go off of?

for your part about (not directed at me, I kno)"If we NL, Mafia gets control of the game. There's only two scum players, even if we mislynch it's not like we'd lose the game."
mislynch assumption we loose part of our numbers in town bringing it to 6:2 we don't loose the game but it makes it faster bruh
also how do they get control of the game from that, how is mislynching better than not lynching????


but yeah fr where did taesaek go though
From their last post they weren't here at all when day 1 started but their past post history was really active?? and now suddenly gone
totally not a creeper but I checked out their tumblr and they did post some stuff yesterday

 

[Chrystina]

Huhhhh Idk about that since I feel like it would be easier for scum to just lay low on a question like that and not bring it up at all?
and yeah the suggested part was towards mother of all llamas not you since I did mention them, but wasn't saying the roles were in the game?? Since the question was asking which row/column you would hope to have not what roles you think are in the game (maybe they just used the wrong wording is what I think)

Unless you slipped up.

but yeah I don't really get your "You're scum & know what the roles are." part, I can't really connect it to what I said

and just wondering since you voted for me, do you genuinely think I'm scum? or because there's nothing better to go off of?

All I will say is I have plenty of time to change my vote.

for your part about (not directed at me, I kno)"If we NL, Mafia gets control of the game. There's only two scum players, even if we mislynch it's not like we'd lose the game."
mislynch assumption we loose part of our numbers in town bringing it to 6:2 we don't loose the game but it makes it faster bruh
also how do they get control of the game from that, how is mislynching better than not lynching????

okay well first things first, im not a bruh.
and to answer your question, runeraider explained it perfectly - now that i've gone back and read it all.
here

Well, I guess I have to talk about why no lynch is a bad idea.

Why No Lynching Day 1 Is A Bad Idea
A scientific paper written by Dr Rune Raider.

DISCLAIMER: This post is completely objective, and does not take into account any special mafia or town role modifiers. It also does not take into account scum hunting or any subjective variables, as it would be too hard to take into account here and it would be too complicated to analyse at the moment. For the purpose of this scientific paper, it will be assumed that there are no blue roles, everyone is a townie, every mafia player is a mafia goon and lynches are chosen by complete random.

Because of there being 9 players in the game, and the ratio of mafia on TBT being 1 to 3 rounded down (so 1 mafia to every 3 townies) the mostly likely amount of scum is two. Also, as shown by Ness in the OP about role pms, notice how it only ever metions one mafia partner in the scum role pms. Therefore, it's very likely there are two mafia in the game.

Because of this, the current ratio is 7 town to 2 mafia. Mafia wins when there are at least as many town as mafia, so we'll lose when there's two town left. If we were to lynch every day, and mafia was to kill town every day, then assuming we mislynch town every day mafia would win at the end of day 3. (7-5=2) Therefore, we have two mislynches and three lynches to get one mafia. This also means that we have 4 lynches in total to kill 2 mafia.

If we no lynched, then the ratio of town to mafia would be 6 to 2 on d2. This means that mafia win will only be delayed to the end of night 3. This means that instead of having 3 lynches to kill 1 mafia, and 4 lynches to kill 2 mafia, or a required success rate of at least 50%, but we'll only have 2 lynches to kill one mafia, and 3 lynches to kill 2 mafia, meaning we have a required success rate of 66.6%. Therefore, we can conclude that no lynching is objectively the worst option in this situation.

TL;DR: No lynching means we need to get 2 out of 3 lynches, while lynching means we only need to get 2 out of 4 lynches correct, meaning town should lynch on day 1.

 

[tae]

Helloxcutie/taesaek, any opiniond about the game so far??

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/opinions not opiniond

ahh i have no idea what it is i'm doing. that's all i've got so far, kiddos.

A vote was cast! but come on, you don't actually buy into that bogus logic about casting a lynch now actually gives us better odds do you? @alexi

i'm uncertain as to how to come about with who's mafia and who isn't.
there's been a few fingers pointed but there's also been a good number of people to jump out and defend so the question is, who's defending who and to what degree? mafia would probably protect mafia. esp since they'd all know who each other are.

I'm going to vote for taesaek unless they say something soon. Since it's kinda the only solid lead we have. Interestingly, their posts from pre game seem really aggressive. Though I hate to lynch on day 1, not saying anything at all is really sus.

yo, i'm here. i've been crying over fire emblem for the last few days while getting ready to leave on a plane tomorrow (bringing my laptop don't worry i'll be active still) but yes, i can see how me being inactive towards the starting day's may be a bit suspicious to you, but if you checked my last post date on my profile, you'd know i've been awak from tbt in general, not avoiding posting.



also, just to add in, ill do the questions now as well since i'm finally here:

1. Would you prefer being Town or Mafia?[B/] i honestly don't know the perks of either or.
2. Which row/column are you hoping this game set up is? please explain it like i'm 5.
3. What timezone are you in and how active will you be? i'm currently in mountain time zone, which is like MT -7:00 but i will be leacing tomorrow morning for florida, i will be EST then. i plan to remain as active as possible this game.
4. Name a random person in this game who could be mafia? lynn, because who the hell would trust that dog icon.
5. What's your favourite food? korean bbq bc im tbt's #1 koreaboo apparently.

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i don't really how my aggression towards ness bullying me into mafia plays into my in-game role, but if you need someone to pick at, by all means have your pick.

regardless of the current state, i agree with the idea of "let's not vote on no lynch" because i'm sure lynching is the fun part of the game, right?

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Well okay, Ness just confirmed 2 mafia in the OP, so 1 KP. It's good to know at least.
As for todays lynch I don't really expect to get mafia, but for the meanwhile, I'd be good for a Hello/Taesaek lynch due to their sheer quietness or someone else depending

well i guess you can write me off the mafia list since i'm here now. ~


a guy goes off tbt for a day or two and everyone think's he's mafia. :'(

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helloxcutiee I catch lurking here and there since yesterday. CALLING YOU OUT GIRL.

ohhhh dangggggggg, get at her.

 

[BungoTheElf]

Unless you slipped up.

All I will say is I have plenty of time to change my vote.


okay well first things first, im not a bruh.
and to answer your question, runeraider explained it perfectly - now that i've gone back and read it all.
here

Oh, I'm sorry if calling you bruh offended you
and for the other things ummm ok I guess but I already explained how I got there with my reasoning lol

honestly I dunno here is how I see it

+ 6:2 if it makes sense?
But at the same time we I do see that we get an extra opportunity for lynch hmmmmmmm
actually after rereading it too, I guess I understand it more.... with their tl;dr it's just the extra lynch that is the main point right (bc the town count and everything honestly just messes me up more lol)
but still... it doesn't count the other factors such as the cop which would possibly affect the numbers and idk...


If we do go lynching I think I'd be in favor of taesaek
reason being the abrupt inactivity I guess
I hope they are alright if something happened to them though
hEy they posted with valid reasons nvm

also goldie best dog so , btw the row/columns are what could be included into the game or not like 1 would mean our game includes Jailkeeper,Vanilla Townie,Mafia Goon and A means we would have Jailkeeper,Mafia Roleblocker ,1-shot bulletproof
but atm none of us know what the set up is (besides possibilities since certain people may have a special role/one of those featured roles)

 

[Qwerty111]

yo, i'm here. i've been crying over fire emblem for the last few days while getting ready to leave on a plane tomorrow (bringing my laptop don't worry i'll be active still) but yes, i can see how me being inactive towards the starting day's may be a bit suspicious to you, but if you checked my last post date on my profile, you'd know i've been awak from tbt in general, not avoiding posting.

Oops. I always forget the profile thing. I see now! Thanks for clearing that up.

On that note, I guess I really don't know who to vote for now. If something doesn't come up, I'll go with no lynch. The more of us the better, amrite?

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On the role thing, I guess if we all say our roles, we might figure it out. Though I doubt it, since Vanilla Townie seems repeated a lot, (In row 1, but also filled up with in row 3) so a mafia could claim that and we'd be none the wiser. Role calling is a late game thing though, so it might be best to leave that out. I just wanted to mention it, I guess. Not to mention it makes mafia go haywire killing all the town with roles.

 

[tae]

also goldie best dog so , btw the row/columns are what could be included into the game or not like 1 would mean our game includes Jailkeeper,Vanilla Townie,Mafia Goon and A means we would have Jailkeeper,Mafia Roleblocker ,1-shot bulletproof
but atm none of us know what the set up is (besides possibilities since certain people may have a special role/one of those featured roles)

so even if they're got the matric 5 or 6 or whatever in the op, there still might not be all those roles played?
ooohhhh this will be interesting. and goldie isn't bad but im more of a daisy kinda guy. ;')

Oops. I always forget the profile thing. I see now! Thanks for clearing that up.

On that note, I guess I really don't know who to vote for now. If something doesn't come up, I'll go with no lynch. The more of us the better, amrite?

yes haha. my last post before mafia was like, on like thursday or friday. oops. lol.
but yeah, i'm uncertain as to who it could be as well, but i don't know if a no lynch is really worth it?

i guess every game is different but i really don't know the logistics and the best methods to play given this is my first time around the murder train that is mafia.