The lottery and you!(r odds of winning)

[kikotoot]

I was exploring the site a little bit and went through all lottery history I could and does no one ever enter this thing? I did some math and this is what I found:you have a 1 in 5456 chance of winning no matter the amount of entrants, and since there are less than a million people active a week (I'm assuming), the odds of two people winning is incredibly unlikely (one in 29767936), so lets say pot splitting will never occur. If there are 4000 people online a week, and they all enter, you'd have a 73% chance to make money off of the lottery if you entered it until you won, and someone new took your spot. Statistically ideal would be the case that 5456 people enter a week, resulting in every person who enters making money except for one person who breaks even, provided no one enters after they win and someone new fills their space. It'll take some faith and is nearly impossible to organize, but the bell tree lottery is profitable!

(disclaimer: stats and probability are valid in the long run so 5456 lotteries would need to be entered (that follow the conditions above) numerous times (infinite) before it is made 100% accurate. Even so (this next part wasn't calculated) You will likely profit from the lottery if the scenario above is (impossibly) realized )

 

[Justin]

There have been two winners in the entire history of the lottery.

Good luck!!

 

[Zandy]

I think that your statistics may be a little off.

If you must pick 3 numbers, each ranging from 1-33 then the odds of selected all 3 numbers correctly is actually 1/35937 (unless there's smaller prizes that I'm not aware of?)

Also, the number of members who visit the forum daily tends to be only around 1000-1200 which is much, much fewer than 1 million. That said, if every ~active~ member purchased a ticket you'd expect one win (on average) every 30-36 weeks the lottery comes up. Of course, very few (if anyone) participates in the lottery because the odds are extremely low xD.

Because everyone's odds of winning are independent of everyone elses' there's only a 1/35937 chance of any user guessing correctly each week, and on average, it would take 35937 = weeks (about 691 years) for any individual person to win at least once.

Edit - On average once again. Of course, the more people that play the higher chance that there will be any winner overall xP.

 

[Raffy]

There have been two winners in the entire history of the lottery.

Good luck!!

omg really lmao.
i'm gonna start entering the lottery like every week now c:

also lots of maths so much wow.

 

[kikotoot]

I think that your statistics may be a little off.

If you must pick 3 numbers, each ranging from 1-33 then the odds of selected all 3 numbers correctly is actually 1/35937 (unless there's smaller prizes that I'm not aware of?)

Also, the number of members who visit the forum daily tends to be only around 1000-1200 which is much, much fewer than 1 million. That said, if every ~active~ member purchased a ticket you'd expect one win (on average) every 30-36 weeks the lottery comes up. Of course, very few (if anyone) participates in the lottery because the odds are extremely low xD.

Because everyone's odds of winning are independent of everyone elses' there's only a 1/35937 chance of any user guessing correctly each week, and on average, it would take 35937 = weeks (about 691 years) for any individual person to win at least once.

Edit - On average once again. Of course, the more people that play the higher chance that there will be any winner overall xP.

thought it was 33C3?

- - - Post Merge - - -

omg really lmao.
i'm gonna start entering the lottery like every week now c:

also lots of maths so much wow.

its only worth it if 5456 people enter each week so i wouldn't yet

 

[Zandy]

thought it was 33C3?

33C3 implies that the order of the 3 number chosen does not matter, i.e., 1-2-3 is the same as 3-2-1, but, I think the order of the numbers does matter from how it lets you choose 1 of 33 for each slot xP.

For each of slot you have 33 choices and there's 3 slots, so there 33 choices for slot 1, 33 choices for slot 2, and 33 choices for slot 3, i.e., 33x33x33. Someone correct me if I'm misunderstanding how the TBT lottery works though xD.

 

[kikotoot]

yeah i thought the order didn't matter like 649 but if it does then your right and its not the best thing to invest in

 

[Bowie]

Please sign my petition to make Justin have us all win the lottery, all at once.

 

[kikotoot]

lol, if there was a collectible you get the first time you win the lottery id be all for that (they should totally do that to increase demand)

 

[Zandy]

lol, if there was a collectible you get the first time you win the lottery id be all for that (they should totally do that to increase demand)

Haha, that's be a neat perk .

 

[kikotoot]

although the small fraction of 3 bells I would profit off of does sound appealing

 

[PeeBraiin]

lol, if there was a collectible you get the first time you win the lottery id be all for that (they should totally do that to increase demand)

Or maybe increase the price since odds are so low

 

[Jacob]

Even if it is a 1/5456 chance, the odds do not rise.

For example, Flipping a coin statistically states that there is a 50% chance that you will get heads on the first flip. But, this does not ensure that you will automatically get Tails the next time because it is still only a 50% chance.

If that made any sense then.....

For the lottery,
if you enter it this week, you have a 1/5456 chance that you will win
Next week, you will also have a 1/5456 chance, not 2/5456

TL;DR - Even if you enter the raffle 5456 times there is a huge possibility you will not win.

 

[GalacticGhost]

Oh, so that's why there has only been a couple of winners...

Seriously, it needs to be made more likely that someone will win, if only two people have ever won.

Either that, or increase the amount you get from winning.

 

[Nightmares]

How do I enter? XD

- - - Post Merge - - -

Nvmmmmmmm!

 

[Dinosaurz]

My brain hurts

 

[Damniel]

Oh I forgot that lottery function even existed....

 

[milkday]

Why does hardly anyone win? Can't they change that?

 

[ZetaFunction]

Technically the odds of winning don't increase each time you try it, but they theoretically do in the case of trying it multiple times in one go, if that makes sense. But even then, that's only in the 'theoretical lottery', and as you know, theoretical probability is very improbable when applied in real-life scenarios when it's infinitesimal or infinite.

Example: normal lottery, 1/x chance of winning first time, 1/x chance of winning second, etc.
i.e. you'll never ever win

Example 2: theoretical lottery, 1/x chance of winning first time out of 2 times, 2/x chance of winning second time out of two times, etc.
i.e. this will never occur because this is a statistically perfect lottery, and gods know they'll never exist.

the theoretical lottery rule (example 2) can be applied, IF it's statistically perfect. again, the math still shows it's not likely to happen

FOR THOSE WHO DON'T KNOW/WANT TO KNOW THE MATHS: chance of winning = 0 pretty much

... what should be asked is what happens to all bells used in the lottery tickets. do they get sent to justin?

 

[Moose716]

Honestly you could earn 100 bells a week by being active so there's really no point