First of all, regarding Dolby's assault on Dad:
Funnily enough, I actually follow most of Dolby's points. I don't think he's stretched anything too far, and I think his points are perfectly reasonable. (Especially with regard to assuming you'd get a quicktopic with your jailee when your jailing was a night action)
However, Dolby is most likely incorrect.
Why? Because last night's kills make absolutely no sense unless Dad is in fact jailer.
Or, more to the point, only make sense should a jailer exists, and in the event that a jailer exists, it's Dad.
Why? Because there's no way that busdriver was the only protective role in the game. That's wildly unlikely - and more to the point, mafia have no good reason to assume there isn't any. Yet they were comfortable killing both glow and Farobi.
What this suggests is that they were comfortable with the assumption that there would be no protective role one either. The only reasonable method they could've come to this assumption is if there existed a protective role that had a good reason to not target either of them. The only protective role that fits this description is jailer, because targeting either of them would've blocked them as well.
Consequently, I'm chunking Dad's play down to him ****ting the bed, and would be nothing but absolutely and completely floored if he flipped mafia. (Or TP)
With regard to the PM between Panda and I:
I honestly can't be bothered fetching it. The entirety of the contents are her asking if I'm willing to tell her my role in return for her telling me her role. The only reason this is relevant is because that's a strategy called "scouting". If you're asking that question, then you're going to claim villager. This is why I said no when she asked me, because by asking that question I'd already learnt her role.
The reason Third party is extremely unlikely to do "scouting" is because it limits your own options as a cost for obtaining a small amount of information. This is much, much more useful for a member of a team than someone flying solo. Consequently, I really doubt Panda is mafia.
Now, to the most important thing - who is arsonist. If we don't get them soon, a bunch of people will blow up and change the game into a likely extremely disadvantageous state.
Am I biased because I'm one of those people? Yes. But that's beside the point.
I've narrowed down to this list:
Dolby
Mog
Sensai
Dedenne (I ISO'd her, and at no point does she make any connection between Arsonist and Mafia - moreover, she doesn't show any surprise whatsoever at most people claiming that it's third party. This is honestly my leading read for Arsonist. The only thing that makes me hesitant at all is
this post where Dedenne states she "75% believe [my] doused claim". Why 75% Dedenne? What reason would you have to doubt that it was legitimate? Do you think, for example, that both Heyden I are mafia and we're lying about it? I really want clarification here.)
The reason I haven't put Chele(Trundle) or Zendel on this list is because I was doused n1. Given that I was townread by almost everyone day 1, this means that it's likely that arsonist was actively following the thread - not too telling by itself, but given that neither of these two were, I believe it's unlikely that either is arsonist.
