Mafia The Real Housewives of Mafia - Town Wins

[SensaiGallade]

wtf, who am i piggybacking off of ? and how did i slyly vote for Evan ? i explained my vote earlier, but you refuse to except it. so what happens when i get lynched and flip green ? can town lynch you next ?

Town can if they want to, it won't get them anywhere apart from lowering their chances of winning.

 

[mogyay]

First of all, regarding Dolby's assault on Dad:
Funnily enough, I actually follow most of Dolby's points. I don't think he's stretched anything too far, and I think his points are perfectly reasonable. (Especially with regard to assuming you'd get a quicktopic with your jailee when your jailing was a night action)
However, Dolby is most likely incorrect.
Why? Because last night's kills make absolutely no sense unless Dad is in fact jailer.
Or, more to the point, only make sense should a jailer exists, and in the event that a jailer exists, it's Dad.

Why? Because there's no way that busdriver was the only protective role in the game. That's wildly unlikely - and more to the point, mafia have no good reason to assume there isn't any. Yet they were comfortable killing both glow and Farobi.

What this suggests is that they were comfortable with the assumption that there would be no protective role one either. The only reasonable method they could've come to this assumption is if there existed a protective role that had a good reason to not target either of them. The only protective role that fits this description is jailer, because targeting either of them would've blocked them as well.

Consequently, I'm chunking Dad's play down to him ****ting the bed, and would be nothing but absolutely and completely floored if he flipped mafia. (Or TP)

With regard to the PM between Panda and I:
I honestly can't be bothered fetching it. The entirety of the contents are her asking if I'm willing to tell her my role in return for her telling me her role. The only reason this is relevant is because that's a strategy called "scouting". If you're asking that question, then you're going to claim villager. This is why I said no when she asked me, because by asking that question I'd already learnt her role.
The reason Third party is extremely unlikely to do "scouting" is because it limits your own options as a cost for obtaining a small amount of information. This is much, much more useful for a member of a team than someone flying solo. Consequently, I really doubt Panda is mafia.

Now, to the most important thing - who is arsonist. If we don't get them soon, a bunch of people will blow up and change the game into a likely extremely disadvantageous state.
Am I biased because I'm one of those people? Yes. But that's beside the point.

I've narrowed down to this list:
Dolby
Mog
Sensai
Dedenne (I ISO'd her, and at no point does she make any connection between Arsonist and Mafia - moreover, she doesn't show any surprise whatsoever at most people claiming that it's third party. This is honestly my leading read for Arsonist. The only thing that makes me hesitant at all is this post where Dedenne states she "75% believe [my] doused claim". Why 75% Dedenne? What reason would you have to doubt that it was legitimate? Do you think, for example, that both Heyden I are mafia and we're lying about it? I really want clarification here.)

The reason I haven't put Chele(Trundle) or Zendel on this list is because I was doused n1. Given that I was townread by almost everyone day 1, this means that it's likely that arsonist was actively following the thread - not too telling by itself, but given that neither of these two were, I believe it's unlikely that either is arsonist.

abeeeeeeeee, i dont get what u mean tho, u say third party isnt gonna scout bc its too risky but u say it's useful if ur part of a group. but then u say 'i really doubt panda is mafia' if she was indeed scouting then surely itd mean she was part of a group which would mean mafia so why do u doubt she is? im curious

 

[Dolby]

@Endless, if Dad isn't mafia, and considering that we know that Glow was likely blocked(given that she never said who she was going to bus, why did both Glow and Farobi die in your view? Do you think that somebody else knew Glow's role, that Farobi leaked it, or that maf got lucky

 

[Endless]

I think Dedenne and Panda are definitely compatible, and so?s Dedenne/Dad, but the problem is do I believe Dolby or Dad? And if Dad isn?t scum then how would that affect my Dedenne/Panda reads? I don?t think it?s possible to ISO dolby in a reasonable timeframe cuz he?s a talkative mofo as always, but perhaps I should study him more, reread him, and see if I can (a) better deduce his alignment and (b) determine possible teammates. With me cleaning Christmas that may be a challenge

Dad is almost certainly town.

I just had a thought - If a town crier exists, claim to Evan.
If Evan recieves no claims, then the messages are being generated by arsonist. (Or mafia, but accidentally hitting a mafia wouldn't exactly be the worst experience)

If we can conclude that, then we can hunt them based on their messages.

 

[Dolby]

abeeeeeeeee, i dont get what u mean tho, u say third party isnt gonna scout bc its too risky but u say it's useful if ur part of a group. but then u say 'i really doubt panda is mafia' if she was indeed scouting then surely itd mean she was part of a group which would mean mafia so why do u doubt she is? im curious

I think he just mistyped and meant arsonist

 

[Endless]

@Endless, if Dad isn't mafia, and considering that we know that Glow was likely blocked(given that she never said who she was going to bus, why did both Glow and Farobi die in your view? Do you think that somebody else knew Glow's role, that Farobi leaked it, or that maf got lucky

I'm under the impression that there was more people than Dad/Glow/Farobi in that circle. In the event that wasn't, occam's razor dictates that Dad has to be mafia, but like I stated, that's not a reasonable assumption.

 

[Dolby]

Yeah, the only person that I see Farobi giving Glow's role to was Waffle's, but given that they said that they already knew another person's role through Farobi, I don't think that she would have know Glow's role through Farobi, as it really doesn't make sense as town or maf to say one and not the other

 

[Endless]

abeeeeeeeee, i dont get what u mean tho, u say third party isnt gonna scout bc its too risky but u say it's useful if ur part of a group. but then u say 'i really doubt panda is mafia' if she was indeed scouting then surely itd mean she was part of a group which would mean mafia so why do u doubt she is? im curious

As Dolby stated, this is a mistype on my part. Nothing's stopping pands being mafia, but I really, really doubt she's Arsonist. (Assuming Toads hasn't made a debacle of balance and slotted Arsonist in with mafia.)

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Yeah, the only person that I see Farobi giving Glow's role to was Waffle's, but given that they said that they already knew another person's role through Farobi, I don't think that she would have know Glow's role through Farobi, as it really doesn't make sense as town or maf to say one and not the other

I mean I dunno Dolby, if I was mafia and in a town PM circle more or less known to have a leak, I sure as hell wouldn't claim.

 

[amazonevan19]

Dad is almost certainly town.

I just had a thought - If a town crier exists, claim to Evan.
If Evan recieves no claims, then the messages are being generated by arsonist. (Or mafia, but accidentally hitting a mafia wouldn't exactly be the worst experience)

If we can conclude that, then we can hunt them based on their messages.

I’m down for this. I haven’t gotten many messages this game anyway so crier can keep me company

Tbh since glow claimed blue herself, maybe maf just took a risk and shot her with Farobi. It may not be dad’s fault at all

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Beginning to think Dolby vs. Dad is Town vs. town but I would need more info on Dolby before I fully conclude that

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Lolol what if arso claims crier to me

 

[mogyay]

crap i dont know what to believe, i keep flip flopping on how i feel. i kinda agree with evan like i said earlier but circumstances are kinda a bit against dad, like i just dont think jailing kat was a great move but then abe does kinda provide good points as to why he must be jailer. and i did believe his claim at the time... unless abe is protecting dad but that seems a bit far fetched. ok but then who tf is mafia out of u 4 bc it has to be someone lbr

 

[Endless]

Tbh since glow claimed blue herself, maybe maf just took a risk and shot her with Farobi. It may not be dad’s fault at all

The problem with this concept is that the way Glow was playing she was extremely likely to be a veteran or a villager (Yes, glow does this sometimes). Wasting a shot on her? That could be justified by mafia who are too scared to play against her. A shot and a block? That's way, wayyy too much of a coincidence. You can either believe that mafia got wildly lucky, or you can believe there was a leak. One of these scenarios is overwhelmingly more likely than the other.

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crap i dont know what to believe, i keep flip flopping on how i feel. i kinda agree with evan like i said earlier but circumstances are kinda a bit against dad, like i just dont think jailing kat was a great move but then abe does kinda provide good points as to why he must be jailer. and i did believe his claim at the time... unless abe is protecting dad but that seems a bit far fetched. ok but then who tf is mafia out of u 4 bc it has to be someone lbr

Alternatively, instead of attempting to distinguish who Toads decided was experienced or not, you try and conclude who you believe is objectively town, who is objectively mafia, and help me catch the filthy arsonist.

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The more I think about "believe the douse if you will", the more I believe that the messages are coming from arsonist. (Potentially, the arsonist could have that power as well as a town crier, which would explain the double message day 2.)

With the bracketed piece of logic, I don't think we can analyse the message from day 1 to attempt to distinguish the arsonist, because there's nothing stopping them from being the other person, should they exist. However, the message "believe the douse if you will" is taunting at it's finest, and I'm going to analyse the ever-loving **** out of it.

 

[mogyay]

The problem with this concept is that the way Glow was playing she was extremely likely to be a veteran or a villager (Yes, glow does this sometimes). Wasting a shot on her? That could be justified by mafia who are too scared to play against her. A shot and a block? That's way, wayyy too much of a coincidence. You can either believe that mafia got wildly lucky, or you can believe there was a leak. One of these scenarios is overwhelmingly more likely than the other.

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Alternatively, instead of attempting to distinguish who Toads decided was experienced or not, you try and conclude who you believe is objectively town, who is objectively mafia, and help me catch the filthy arsonist.

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The more I think about "believe the douse if you will", the more I believe that the messages are coming from arsonist. (Potentially, the arsonist could have that power as well as a town crier, which would explain the double message day 2.)

With the bracketed piece of logic, I don't think we can analyse the message from day 1 to attempt to distinguish the arsonist, because there's nothing stopping them from being the other person, should they exist. However, the message "believe the douse if you will" is taunting at it's finest, and I'm going to analyse the ever-loving **** out of it.

I KNOW IT'S TERRIBLE LOGIC AND I APOLOGISE. i'm still not 100% on dad, if you're saying there had to be a leak bc a role block and a kill isn't justified then surely it's logical it might be dad. i don't see how any mafia could find out about glow. i don't see who could be the mole in this situation other than dad. i know other people have been brought up but i'm not sure how convinced i am by it.. except maybe the waffle thing does make sense ugh.. i know more than anyone not to talk to your friends during pm games (i still hate karla) but i don't know. maybe i should stop focusing on this situation though and look at other things (where's ness?) also i guess aronist must also write messages cause why would town crier even write that about believing the douse claim? unless maybe there's a crier hinting at something they know??

 

[Endless]

normally I would, but it's Christmas so I'm not reading up on the entire thread. can two different people give me a summary of everything that has happened in their own eyes

Evan and ness are almost certainly town because of a townslip in pm Ness brought forward (I don't think it's faked, that's the first thing you're going to ask)
Dad claims jailer.
Dad/Glow/Farobi (All claimed blue roles, glow hadn't revealed her actual role) had a pm circle n1. Glow/Farobi was killed, and Glow was blocked. (Glow was bus driver, Farobi was Detective [claimed])
From this, most have concluded that there was a mole in the pm circle, most people believe Dad was the mole, I'm under the impression that that notion is absurd - I believe there's another unclaimed member that was the mole.
Heyden was doused day 1, I've been doused day 2. I'm hunting the arsonist. Dw, I'm fairly confident it isn't you.
That's the tl;dr

 

[dedenne]

I 100% believe that it's Dad/Dedenne and I mentioned in an earlier post that there were more than a few people who I would switch out with you. I don't believe that it's a pure scum play, but unwillingness to switch to Dad when he's second competing wagon is a huge red flag to me

I haven't read anything but if you 100% believe it's me and dad why am I null?

 

[amazonevan19]

The problem with this concept is that the way Glow was playing she was extremely likely to be a veteran or a villager (Yes, glow does this sometimes). Wasting a shot on her? That could be justified by mafia who are too scared to play against her. A shot and a block? That's way, wayyy too much of a coincidence. You can either believe that mafia got wildly lucky, or you can believe there was a leak. One of these scenarios is overwhelmingly more likely than the other.

Those are some good points you bring up and I love me some Occam's Razor but let's consider some possibilities. We're assuming at least one godfather is on the scum team because of balance issues.

This means that helps Dolby's not-being-scum case quite a bit since he knows how much glow loves to bull**** blue roles when she doesn't have them, so he would choose not to kill her as scum!Dolby.

For glow to have died, at least ONE of the godfathers here, who knows glow's meta, would still willingly choose to kill her regardless. And the trail leads back to Dad being that godfather...PERHAPS. If we can't figure out who was in the PM circle and who knew about glow when...that really throws a monkey wrench into our analysis here.

In my mind, either Dad is guilty and knew to kill 'em both, or a mainly nooby scum team (not very well aware of glow's meta) just picked Farobi and glow because they were both outted blues. I know I'd certainly have at least mentioned doing that to my scumbuddies in QT if I was scum this game

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Also my pm box sits lonelier and emptier than Charlie Brown's mailbox as he waits for Christmas cards CRIER WHERE ART THOU

 

[dedenne]

I haven't read anything but if you 100% believe it's me and dad why am I null?

*everything

 

[Endless]

It's not necessarily dad that's the leak - as I've been saying. I'd be floored if it was.

Honestly, I'm after Sensai at this current point. I've cross referenced the way that cry was said, and he matches up with it the most.
His content is also beyond lackluster.

He's getting my vote, I'm solid on him being arsonist.

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Dolby, you're under the impression that sensai is mafia, no? Care to join me?

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I KNOW IT'S TERRIBLE LOGIC AND I APOLOGISE. i'm still not 100% on dad, if you're saying there had to be a leak bc a role block and a kill isn't justified then surely it's logical it might be dad. i don't see how any mafia could find out about glow. i don't see who could be the mole in this situation other than dad. i know other people have been brought up but i'm not sure how convinced i am by it.. except maybe the waffle thing does make sense ugh.. i know more than anyone not to talk to your friends during pm games (i still hate karla) but i don't know. maybe i should stop focusing on this situation though and look at other things (where's ness?) also i guess aronist must also write messages cause why would town crier even write that about believing the douse claim? unless maybe there's a crier hinting at something they know??

Logic dictates that there was a leak. Logic also dictates that that leak would've only been acted on in that manner had Dad been what he claims to be.
From this, we can conclude that the leak was likely not Dad.

 

[Dolby]

I haven't read anything but if you 100% believe it's me and dad why am I null?

Yeah, I misstated that, I meant that Dad/Dedenne is the primary pairing within them. But yes, I see you as highly linked to Dad

Dolby, you're under the impression that sensai is mafia, no? Care to join me?

Not really. I'll probably end up joining if the Dad wagon falls apart, but honestly not sure how I feel about the primary Panda. Really need to look into her more

 

[Endless]

I think the Dad wagon is a disaster and I'm going to expend the greatest amount of effort to rip it off it's hinges.

 

[amazonevan19]

Ok so one thing that struck me is that I don’t think ANYBODY took a serious look at the EoD 1 results and tried to use them to scumhunt. I hate PoE scumhunting, it sucks I know, but I’m gonna throw in some maths here as well to legitimize this methodology.

First of all, my hypothesis: I believe there is likely scum in the lynch trains against Punchy and myself. Just from a quick examination of the vote, this is rather obvious: 10/18 people voted for either punchy or myself (simplifies to 5/9  55.6% chance). Assuming four mafia in this game, that means randomly selecting a player to be mafia is a 4/18  2/9  22.2% chance. And the probability of a random person voting for Punchy or myself is the aforementioned 55.6%. Since the probability of a mafia member is an independent, but not mutually exclusive, event from their voting for either Punchy or myself, we can determine the probability of finding a scum via looking at the two lynch trains.

So now let’s take a look at the vote trains, eliminate those we know are confirmed to be town, and we will be left with a much smaller field of people who are likely scum that voted for either punchy or myself.

Punchy’s train consisted of Sensai, myself, Farobi, Punchy, and Waffles
The train against me consisted of Kat, Ness, Panda, mog, and Dolby

Since Farobi and Punchy (confirmed townie/blue) are in the Punchy lynch train, we strike them out and are left with a pool of 8 people (sensai, me, waffles, kat, ness, panda, mog, dolby).

ALSO, since we now KNOW punchy, farobi and glow CANNOT be scum, we are left with an overall potential field of 15. So in reality, 8/15 is what we are now looking at, which is 3/5 --> 53.3% chance of someone unconfirmed voting for either Punchy or myself. Bringing back the probability of randomly picking a scum (22.2%)… 0.22*.533=11.73% that there is scum who voted for either punchy or myself. That doesn’t sound too impressive, but remember we’re talking in the context of the ENTIRE player base. That 22.2% figure forgets to strike out the confirmeds!! So therefore…
- The probability of scum being in the pool of people who voted for either punchy or myself is [4/15 --> 26.67%] * (8/15 --> 53.3%) = 14.151%.

A bit better. We can also try to eliminate some names of people who are very likely to not be scum. This is where this method could fall apart, since I’m making hella huge assumptions, but I’m going to try and not eliminate any names from consideration too wantonly. For sake of argument, I’m going to only strike myself and kat from the list. This leaves 6 people (sensai, waffles, ness, panda, mog, dolby). So now the math needs to be redone.
- 6/13 --> 46.15% chance a random unconfirmed person is in the punchy/evan pool, and
- 4/13 --> 30.77% (!!) chance scum is in the entire voting pool.
- This means that the probability of scum being in that voting pool is 14.2%. Again, just a bit better.

Overall, while mathematically I have shown it’s rather unlikely to randomly pick a scum who then voted for punchy or myself, just looking at the names and using PoE plus doing a more exhaustive examination of the EoD 1 events will probably give us some really likely scum suspects. This analysis leaves us the suspects of sensai, waffles, ness, panda, mog, and dolby. tbh I trust Ness rn so I could make it 5.

(I feel I’ve done something horribly wrong with my math since the probabilities are low, but I just took a stats class and figured I’d try to use it in real life somehow lol. Someone correct me if I need to redo something or made a wrong assumption)


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