Mafia The Real Housewives of Mafia - Town Wins

[moonford]

can you kill me tonight? lol

 

[SensaiGallade]

Well that was smart of Trundle to vote for himself

 

[moonford]

Abe/Kat/Heyden

Comes to show kids, that godfather logic is crap and should be second guessed; you'll be shunned if you do though.

 

[EpicGamer12]

Well that was smart of Trundle to vote for himself

You were so sure I was mafia you even convinced me!

 

[N e s s]

looks into camera like i'm on the office

 

[SensaiGallade]

You were so sure I was mafia you even convinced me!

Hopefully I didn't blow up your ego too much then. Wouldn't want it to burst would we

 

[cornimer]

looks into camera like i'm on the office

Again I ask myself the question: what is going on in obvs?

 

[cornimer]

Zendel

Just a quick colour list, this is in order:

Heyden
Chele
Abe (Endless)
Ness
Vanessa
Dolby
Mog
Evan
Waffles
Dedenne
Panda
Punchy
Kat (Arstotkan)
Farobi
Glow -
Dad

First reads list. Endless and Heyden are amongst his top townies

IN ORDER:
Farobi
Evan


Vanessa
Abe
Dolby - btw, I don't like your attitude during EOD mister!
Chele
Heyden - I doubt he is lying and I doubt he would make a claim like that as scum, I don't like his posts though.
Ness
Mog
Dedenne
Waffles
Sensai
Kat
Panda
Glow
Dad - I'm aware he claimed but I haven't read into it much so I still need to do that, I'll keep him here though.

Second reads list. Heyden and Endless are still in townleans. Heyden especially is important to note because he townleaned him just for the reason that he wouldn't claim doused as scum, despite not liking his posts. He says this again when questioned about it:

I doubt that he was lying about being doused and I doubt that he is scum, I don't see how it work out for him.

This reasoning never made sense to me. Why wouldn't he claim doused as scum?? He has no reason not to.

Could someone explain arsonists?

Apparently there can be mafia and town arsonist from what I'm gathering here? I don't understand it completely and the mini game was messy so I didn't get a full understanding from there.

- - - Post Merge - - -

I searched it but I still don't understand completely.

So arsonists are primarily third party but they can also be mafia? So I know about that now.

Need to look into Heyden even more because I was under the assumption that there could only be scum arsonists.

Believing that only scum arsonists exist would explain why he townleaned Heyden, but I believe multiple people had mentioned third party arsonists by this point (this was Night 1). Never liked these posts, as I believe Kat mentioned before they seem like he's pretending not to know about arsonists to get off the hook.

Another thing to note is that Zendel was strongly in favour of both Panda and Trundle's lynches. He pushed for them both without much question, as shown below:

There isn't anything to solve, we have won the game.

(this was in regards to Panda). Admittedly I didn't question Panda much either, but even after it was revealed Waffles lied about her he still immediately pushed on Trundle:

Okay.

So we're lynching Trundle?

It has to be Trundle though, everyone is basically confirmed at this point right?

okay let's kill trundle.

He considered Kat briefly when I mentioned it, but then went back to tunneling Trundle.

These are the only scummy things Zendel has done all game, his other posts and reactions have seemed pretty town. But, at this point, he should not be discounted as potential scum.

- - - Post Merge - - -

I'll do Kat soonish

 

[SensaiGallade]

I feel as though I should take it upon myself and apologise on behalf of everyone for Trundle's lynch. I'm taking this as a learning experience and whether you think i'm "intuitive" or not, I'm only going to learn from my mistakes and try not make them again.

In other words, last scum lies between Zendel, Kat and Vanessa. Vanessa is a near impossibility based on her play and if she is scum, then she absolutely deserves the win. Kat is not as unlikely as Vanessa but I won't put the idea to the side. I'm leaning towards Zendel based on recent behaviour and points Vanessa has brought up in her ISO of him.

 

[moonford]

Trundle's lynch is kind of a good thing though, we dont have to see his posts anymore. It was everyone's mistake, so dont blame yourself.


Abe didn't express any scuminess, imo.

Heyden's douse claim messed me up because I dont have much experience with arsonist games (i played one game) and his posts made me second guess him, so he was kind of a null/sus but he had his douse claim, which i thought was an action which could only be preformed by scum and thus confirmed him as town for me. Looking back on it now Abe and Heyden had a connection, when Heyden first came in with his douse claim Abe was like "omg, this is soy genuine soy genuine, i believe his claim" and tried to play it off in the hopes that people would sheep him.

Kat has been scummy throughout the game and should have been lynched but was anyone really for a Kat lynch? No. Everyone believed the interactions between multiple players lead to Trundle being scum, which was wrong and everyone makes mistakes.

I was fine with a Kat or Trundle lynch because if we mislynched, which we did, then we would be able to get scum (kat) next phase. Mog has gave up and Waffles is just meddling at this point because she screwed herself over.



If you vote for me then I'm glad scum or TP wins tbh, seeing as they have manipulated us this well so far. I'll vote for myself to end it quicker.

- - - Post Merge - - -

oh yeah, i hope i die tonight if they have any kp but i probably wont seeing as im sus right now.

 

[cornimer]

Kat

Ive been w/ my dad a lot today, so cant make a big post atm but:

@My reaction to Dad: To be totally honest I skimmed and it seemed good, I'll have to reread it. Entirely missed Abe/Zendel even being brought up in that. But doing that when Im at home and not hanging w/ dad

@Ness making this quick bc goung to see holiday ligjts in a sec but I did feel like Abe saying that was significant. Its not my heaviest FOS, will get into it more later. I feel like my opinion on Abe more solidly is gonna depend on my Dad reread

k I ****ed up lmao, reading dad's post it was bad. I know it sounds hollow but I don't really have any excuse for it aside from skimming from reading a bunch of pages at once so FOS that all you want for me being alright with Dad's post, it's justified (like even the mog/Ness part like good lord). Also I've really liked Abe's recent content and I dont think the points against him for arrogance is really a good scumtell - he's always arrogant (kek, last time I said I shouldn't call you talented abe you said it wouldn't hurt for me to compliment you ) so that's not really alignment indicative, and then I also liked his replies to my ****. Moving him into town read.

I will say that I know Dad respects Ness's scum play a lot because of Greek Cultists so I'm not entirely surprised about the GF logic there so I dont really sus him for thinking Ness is good, but I do think his logic is flawed in saying that Toads would assume the same.

Still want to read into Zendel/Panda, gonna do that next and also gonna read into Ness since he'd made markedly little impact on my mind. Slight TR on Zendel atm though, something about his interaction with me feels genuine.

These posts have literally been beaten to death by everyone and Kat has defended them multiple times, but it's worth including bc it was the first scummy thing she did.

repeating it one more time for the choir since it's STILL getting ignored:

PUNCHY IS CLEAR.​

I still don't think clearing Punchy for asking questions about the arsonist was a good reason to clear him, and looking back she could have insisted on this in order to look good when he flipped town.

VERY confident town (bold is confirmed imo):
Dad
Punchy
Chele
Dolby
Endless

town lean:
Ness
Sensai
Farobi
Zendel
Vanessa
Heyden

null:
Dedenne2
Waffles
Mogyay

scum is 75% within these two, if not both:
AmazonEvan19
PandaDarling

she's ****ing scum pls lynch:
Glow

Glow/Panda is almost certainly a team with Panda's earlier comment and general lackluster content. I'd say it's Glow/Panda/Waffles or Glow/Panda/Mog maybe? And Evan with the Arso? I could see Glow/Panda/Evan too, actually yeah.

An important lesson of the day tho:

If yall want some clarification on anyone while I'm still alive, hmu, gonna write some PMs detailing some other smaller thoughts I have

First reads list. Townread Heyden and Endless.
Also for some reason she seemed to think she was going to die N1? Idk why when she claimed green and everyone else had claimed blue. Could be she was trying to sound town. However, I've mentioned before that writing giant PMs and sending them to people in case she died is a very pro-town thing to do.

Tbh my brain's a little fried to do an entire revamped reads list, especially regarding Dolby and glow I need to figure out wtf is going on with them, but:

Endless: I see no realistic world here where Abe is scum here after this line:

Everyone claim in PM to Farobi - Farobi, don't share the claims with anyone you can't strongly identify as town.

There is one exception, which I've PM'd to Farobi, but like if that doesn't happen, I'm having a VERY hard time trying to ration why scum would say this. "Immense town cred!" ok, but town cred at what cost? The systematic destruction of your entire team and likely yourself in due time? Abe has experienced the power of strong trust circles first hand. These things are powerful as **** lemme tell you.

She townleaned Endless because he said that everyone should claim to Farobi and Farobi should keep the claims secret? I don't think that's a good reason to townlean him, he could so easily say that as scum (and he did infact say that as scum) just to seem pro-town

What's up with you saying "hey dedenne is gud" 2 times in quick succession and then going to "hey flip to sensai that'd be great"

Calling Endless out, ok, good

Gonna do quick reads bc mobile but I'll elaborate if I get home in time

Lock town:
Evan

I'd be surprised if scum but not lock:
Dolby
Trundle
Heyden

I believe town due to wagonomics:
Panda
Sensai (less confident on the wagonomics part, but still here bc Evan clear)

Townlean:
Ness
Abe (if Dad's town, its him imo)

**** my pants if mafia but likely Arso:
Waffles

Scummy:
Zendel (looking forward to replacement)
Vanessa (her tunnel on me ended when Dads did which I find odd. Also feel eh on her in general but I wanna ISO her)
Mog
Dad

Still townreads both Endless and Heyden in her second reads list though.

Then, the Big Dramatic Leak happened. Reading back through it, this is a little strange:

sorry waffles betrayed you fam

mafia team: Endless/Heyden/PandaDarling

Wait why Panda?

Heyden had surrendered at this point, and she was starting to become more sus of Endless so it could be she's just surprised that Panda is "scum", or maybe she's surprised that Panda's name was there instead of hers :thinking:

After the Big Dramatic Leak she had a dip in activity due to being away. In today's lynch she voted for Mog instead of jumping on the Trundle ship, which, points for that I guess, but she did say she believed Trundle was the most likely scum.

After doing these ISO's I'm honestly torn between which one of them could be scum. Maybe next I should find Heyden and Endless' readlists and see what they said about Kat and Zendel.

 

[SensaiGallade]

Well ahead of you

Townread
Evan - obv town
Farobi - detective
Zendel - townreading
Panda - think she's town tbh
Glow - blue
Dolby - highly doubt hes scum or tp based on early game behaviour

Null
Dad - still can't wrap my head around his claim something just doesn't sit right with me
Chele - don't know why she's townread when she hasn't done anything towny imo
Waffles - null town cos she's usually obv as maf
Ness - null ish idk

Scumlean
Sensai - could see him on scum team but idk about lynching him
Mog - havent iso'd but posts feel fillery
Vanessa - sort of torn but i can't wrap my head around to tr her
Endless - poe says it's him or kat, maybe both
Kat - ^
Dedenne - done nothing all game, my weakest sus though

Not a great list but I'm using notes on my phone so hey

- - - Post Merge - - -

also no way in hell arsonist is town, don't give them ideas for a claim lmao

This is the only reads list I could find between the two of them. Zendel is townread by Heyden while Kat is scumleaned. Note that Abe is also scumread by Heyden.

 

[cornimer]

Thanks Sensai, that is definitely something to note.

I found Endless', so here it is:

Legend:
Locktown
Strong town
Weak town
Null
Weak mafia
Strong mafia

Farobi: I've never seen a game that didn't have a detective. Well, I have, but I've played hundreds of games, and I can count the number of times there was no detective on my hands.
Honestly, while I was rereading that EoD, I was chanting in my head "flip to farobi" when there was about 30 minutes left, so you can imagine my excitement when it almost happened - which is to say, that if he wasn't det, I'd have almost certainly nailed him to a cross tomorrow.
But he is det, which means there's borderline no way he's mafia.
Which I'm going on to demonstrate how stupidly townsided PM games are; Everyone claim in PM to Farobi - Farobi, don't share the claims with anyone you can't strongly identify as town. Dad and Glow are not options for strongly identified town, and neither is anyone you have a strong townread on without necessarily having a great reason for it. (That's how mafia get inducted into town circles and blow **** up.)
I'd suggest evan as someone you can correspond with, but that's up to your interpretation.
AmazonEvan: Once again, had this guy as mafia due to some inconsistencies (irrelevant now, but if required I can bring them up as a "this is why I thought this thing) but the PM ness leaked of him is like straight up blatant town.
If it's faked, then good ****ing job, but I really don't think it's faked.
Ness: Same as AmazonEven, except there does exist a slight chance that he shared the pm as mafia anyway just for a butt load of town cred. I don't believe that's the case, but the possibility is enough that I'm not going to lock him. Ness is lightyears away from the chopping block though.
Dad: I initially put him as purple on this list, but couldn't figure out a good reason to lock him. Then I put him as strong town, but again, couldn't find a reason to justify it. The reason I'm putting him as weak town? I like his claim. I like what he's saying about his character, but my character is a less relevant character from a non-recent airing of housewives, so I don't know if relevancy of character in the show is all that important.
That being said, I still think he's a poor lynch choice at the moment.
Dolby: Contrary to glow, I love his "godfather" flavour hunt early in the game. I haven't ever seen a mafia pull a stunt like that. I have seen Dolby pull some weird stunts before though, which is why I'm only listing him as weak town.
I think Glow's case against Dolby is pretty garbage.
Zendel: I don't really like doing meta reads, but this is Zendel's town play to a T. I'm not going to provide this as a strong read, because meta reads should never be strong, but I have reason to suspect he's town so far and none to suspect otherwise. (Dad's case against him is poop)
Kat: I originally had Kat as orange, then null, but in retrospect, I like her punchy defense. I'm going to insert the caveat that if arsonist is mafia, then punchy's townslip wasn't a townslip, but I already iterated earlier that arsonists are almost always third party. (And consequently I will assume that they're third party unless proven otherwise)
I still don't like some of her early play - it seems sloppy, but as EoD approached her content was quite solid.
Panda: She hasn't done anything especially definitive in any direction, really. I don't think her defending inactives is a tell.
Vanessa: I don't think she's done anything super telling so far. She has some content though, if I was to change this read it'd be to weak town.
Mog: Moved from orange. No real strong convictions, no real direction. I thought about it though and that doesn't diverge strongly from town!mog, so I redacted the weak scum read.
Sensai: I was soooo tempted to put him as orange, he has actually 0 content, but has posted several times. That being said, I think town!sensai could possibly do that. So I'm going to sum him up as just not having done anything.
Chele: Realistically, Chele is grey for me, I'm just putting chele as orange in my reads list to prove a point - the point being that Chele has jack**** no content and of course she's not going to repeat some terrible mafia play she's done in the past. Anyone townreading Chele is off their rocker, and I'm sticking to this. (Not to say that Chele is necessarily not town, but that current logic identifying her as town is abysmal.)
Dedenne: I can't count the number of "I'm confused" posts on one hand. Hell, I don't know if I could count them on 2. Dedenne posted 3 posts about catching up, and upon catching up, did absolutely no comment on the ridiculous event that they'd just read over.
I know they're new, but this feels like they're scared to be noticed/want to appear like they're still doing stuff. A trait much more common among mafia members than town players.
Heyden: Confused where the townreads on this dude came from. To clarify, I never thought he was town from his doused claim - I just think that there's no way in high hell he's the arsonist. (If the arsonist does wind up being mafia, which seems wildly unlikely to me, then he isn't mafia.)
He then went on ask the doctor to PM him. Obviously, this could've just been a panic reaction, which is why I have him as orange rather than red, but I don't see where the townreads on this dude are stemming from.
I don't think any of his content is too great.
ITYW: General inconsistency, in post 770 she asked "why lynch dedenne without crucial evidence" then goes on to list dedenne as one of her 2 strongest scumleans here.
In another post she declares that Punchy is probably third party and shouldn't be lynched as it could be his wincon (possibly as a joke) but then goes on to vote Punchy "because he asked for it" - just straight logical dissonance.
First point is much more relevant than the second, which might not have been particularly serious.
Glow: Forgive me for being suspicious of a lack of claim. This all can be sorted out by Farobi once he gets all the claims. I think Glow's content is beyond lackluster.
That being said, not having time at this time in the year is super acceptable, and I'm not really going to be putting pressure here given that and the fact that pressuring a blue role is the stupidest thing you can do.
Endless: Blatant mafia, how haven't you guys seen it yet.

Townread both of them. He was evidently flip-flopping on Kat, and his Zendel read is weak. So from this post it could be either of them.

 

[Arstotzkan]

YALL THIS IS WHY WE LYNCH MOG FFS

look if I need to get pictures uploaded to verify my alibi of me being on vacation i will. I will give yall a god damn itinerary. And quite frankly I almost asked toads to MK me because I just had a friend die.

Its Zendel or Waffles, I'll have to look. If anyone has any questions for me fire away

 

[cornimer]

YALL THIS IS WHY WE LYNCH MOG FFS

look if I need to get pictures uploaded to verify my alibi of me being on vacation i will. I will give yall a god damn itinerary. And quite frankly I almost asked toads to MK me because I just had a friend die.

Its Zendel or Waffles, I'll have to look. If anyone has any questions for me fire away

I'm really sorry to hear about that Kat, best wishes and thoughts.
And dw about an alibi or anything I believe you were on vacation.

 

[Arstotzkan]

@Vanessa I never thought I was gonna die N1 lol, I thought I was gonna be the D1 lynch

 

[cornimer]

Ohhhh ok that was a misread on my part, that point is invalid then

 

[SensaiGallade]

YALL THIS IS WHY WE LYNCH MOG FFS

look if I need to get pictures uploaded to verify my alibi of me being on vacation i will. I will give yall a god damn itinerary. And quite frankly I almost asked toads to MK me because I just had a friend die.

Its Zendel or Waffles, I'll have to look. If anyone has any questions for me fire away

Aw Kat im so sorry to hear that. You have my condolences.

You don't need to prove that you were on vacation.

 

[unravel]

Ok guys we are officially not listening to another word Waffles says
Just pretend she is dead

 

[cornimer]

Information worth noting:
-In past games where Zendel was mafia (see: SU2 mafia) he bussed all of his partners, whereas in this game he put Endless and Heyden as town. It is possible that he consciously changed his meta, however, and when I suggested this to him he replied "i dont care enough lol". Not sure how to take that tbh
-In a discord convo, Kat put significant effort into analyzing the remaining players, which makes me townlean her slightly more over Zendel
-It isn't impossible that Waffles is the last mafia. I think it's less likely, but worth noting is that Waffles first claimed unjester after it was first mentioned that toads is using mafiascum definitions, so she could have gotten the idea from there