Mafia CHATBOT MAFIA...Chapter 5: The Glitch... ENDGAME?

[Dolby]

I'm placing my vote on betsy. Not because I am sure she's mafia, but theres not a horrible chance. And regardless of how she flips, Betsy's death could provide a lot information for the rest of us because of how split we are on her.

I really don’t see Betsy’s flip being valuable as town, especially in a game this small. The best that I can say in that world is maybe Dan specifically had TMI on her

 

[Damniel]

Dan how do you read this?

Idk it feels, not great, but still relatively benign because I do feel like there’s a connotation of there being multiple mafia in most games. Looking back most recent splits have been 7/2

if it was 5 townies and 2 mafia, mechanically we should always eliminate. a 7 v 2 is different bc at least we get 2 chances at miselimination

 

[Dolby]

if it was 5 townies and 2 mafia, mechanically we should always eliminate. a 7 v 2 is different bc at least we get 2 chances at

I don’t think he’s thinking like that regardless of alignment

Post automatically merged: Apr 13, 2023

I meant specifically to your thought that he might have TMI of there being two mafia

 

[BetsySundrop]

I'm placing my vote on betsy. Not because I am sure she's mafia, but theres not a horrible chance. And regardless of how she flips, Betsy's death could provide a lot information for the rest of us because of how split we are on her.

I think I'm a strong town player and I definitely shouldn't be voted off today. But if you're sus of me, please- list the reasons. I'm more than willing to resolve any questions you might have. So please - question me! I know I'm town, and will do my best to prove it.

Pretty sure, maybe 99%, the betsy votes/susses are a result of a maf wagon. It's definitely providing info....

 

[Damniel]

I don’t think he’s thinking like that regardless of alignment

Post automatically merged: Apr 13, 2023

I meant specifically to your thought that he might have TMI of there being two mafia

yeah it looks like he’s always thought there’s 2 maf

 

[Dolby]

Yeah I don’t think the Kiko looking into buddying or pairs (implying he thinks there’s multiple mafia) is sus the more I think about it. Don’t think he’s dived deep into numbers speculation

 

[Damniel]

can people tell me why they don’t want to flip the raven slot

 

[Dolby]

can people tell me why they don’t want to flip the raven slot

Would rather vote off an active player on a pure emotional level though yeah if Raven doesn’t start posting soon that is a problem for us

Post automatically merged: Apr 13, 2023

If someone is like “Kiko knows mech” I’ll probably take Dans point on the matter with more credence

 

[BetsySundrop]

can people tell me why they don’t want to flip the raven slot

Rave stated they'd be on at 7pm. If not, yeah I'll vote em. But if they came on with a strong town lean, I'd rather vote someone I actually sus.

 

[tessa grace]

can people tell me why they don’t want to flip the raven slot

I want to hopefully hear from her first

Post automatically merged: Apr 13, 2023

Dude kiko might be mafia

 

[Dolby]

Betsy also thought there was two

Tbh I think the point is a complete non starter for me though in retrospect I came out of iso reading not liking Kiko jokingly playing at power votes for him

I can totally see relatively new players assuming there’s two for no real reason. But the fact that I strongly think there’s one anyway ironically enough makes me think it’s not TMI

Dan I still think I’m right on you, work with me a bit here. What besides that makes Kiko a wolf?

 

[Damniel]

Betsy also thought there was two

Tbh I think the point is a complete non starter for me though in retrospect I came out of iso reading not liking Kiko jokingly playing at power votes for him

I can totally see relatively new players assuming there’s two for no real reason. But the fact that I strongly think there’s one anyway ironically enough makes me think it’s not TMI

Dan I still think I’m right on you, work with me a bit here. What besides that makes Kiko a wolf?

i really don’t like a no elimination is really a town play. i guess if they’re new i can see them not thinking about mechanics much, but I’m not giving a pass on that alone. i also said i don’t think the betsy/me team theory makes much sense

there is a world where kiko is town but they’re the least towny to me rn besides raven

Post automatically merged: Apr 13, 2023

for d1 i’m more interested in finding town and voting off the least towny people so

 

[Dolby]

I mean, if you read back to 2014 in this forum, I wanted to no elim when I was starting out.

I just see the you/Betsy team theory as being just kinda misguided. A lot of new players will be like “irrational townread, must be protecting a teammate”.

But thanks for working with me on this, I get your pov and am happy to work with you on other things. Can I get you to talk about your Frosty townread?

 

[Damniel]

I mean, if you read back to 2014 in this forum, I wanted to no elim when I was starting out.

I just see the you/Betsy team theory as being just kinda misguided. A lot of new players will be like “irrational townread, must be protecting a teammate”.

But thanks for working with me on this, I get your pov and am happy to work with you on other things. Can I get you to talk about your Frosty townread?

frosty i don’t have a particular instance that has made me think town lock like betsy and tessa, but tonally their posts come off as genuine. there’s a bit of nervousness to it but i think it’s from lack of information and not really knowing how to set their foot in the ground. mostly a vibe thing but the vibes come off as innocent

do you still hard town read kiko like you were a little bit ago?

Post automatically merged: Apr 13, 2023

If someone is like “Kiko knows mech” I’ll probably take Dans point on the matter with more credence

also if kiko is maf and there are 2, the mechanics could just come from the partner

 

[Dolby]

Eh I think that Tessa is more towny now. Funnily enough cause I read a Kiko post completely disconnected to this bit and didn’t like it.

 

[kikotoot]

Theres a lot of things hanging in the air right now that I don't think we can discuss until after the game for the sake of keeping town alive and its killing me.

100%
no power-roles have been alluded to except for Dolby's

I think it'll put a target on someone, and I'd rather that not be me. Also, I don't see how the power could be useful if the person croaks, but not knowing the powers, I'll just trust the process.

To me, this is sussy. A townie's first priority would be ensuring that the power does not fall into mafia hands. There are two rationales for you feeling this way, one being town-leaning, and the other maf leaning.
1. It follows that the public winner of the item-vote will likely be a mafia target, and especially on day 1 where there's not too much to go by, the item-vote winner would almost certainly be killed *if they're a townie*. A mafia would not want the item, especially day-1, as the item winner *not* being killed would throw lots of suspicion on them as being one of the mafia.
If you're a townie, the only reason I can think for you to not want the item-vote is if you believe your innate power is so strong that you really don't want the extra heat on you and want to 100% make it to at least day-2.

Good question.



When you quoted me on this, I was waiting on the "power vote". I left questions about the power vote, so that I'd (hopefully) come back to more information. I think it's more town leaning to wait for more information before deciding who gets the power. Why do you find it maf lean?

From what I've read, your reasons to sus me are: my waiting to power vote/ waiting to vote (sorry, but I'd rather wait until my questions are answered), and Dan townreading me?

Essentially, yeah, but mostly the latter. I know most things can go both ways though (even my response to you just there^, and I'm also guilty of still waiting to vote a bit). At this point it's a mix of logic and just gut feelings telling me which is more likely (cuz what else is there to go by day-1)

Maybe you can explain, because I don't understand this reasoning at all. How is waiting to vote on the power a maf lean?
And I really don't understand the reasoning about tessa. Placing the power vote before the elim vote is why you're townreading tessa?

Waiting to vote is something that benefits mafia more than townsfolk is all, because mafia are the ones with steadfast knowledge, so they know what outcomes are best for them from the vote. A townie has no real way of telling day-1 who's what, so would inherently care a bit less of being able to sway things one way or another at the last minute, as they're going solely based on susses vs a mafia knowing exactly what is best for them. Like most things, you can also explain the converse by saying that a townie needs as much info as possible to establish how they want to vote. Choosing which line of reasoning to follow is where the gut would come in to play. Following the thread of all possible ways to read different people, you can make stories for each of them that make the most sense given all these read-options, and atm, the maf leaning reads are lining up with each other pretty well. I can't really think of other people who you can take the maf option for for all their reads and have as cohesive a story atm.

It seems to me that it's way better for town to have as much info as possible, and more likely to be maf pushing everyone to rush the power vote...?



I don't see the frosty angle at all. Could you maybe explain why you think it's maf!frosty? I might be wrong (I often am), but frosty is one of my stronger tr.

With frosty, I don't necessarily think they're maf, what I meant by 3 and 3 was just, if I were to split us in half, those are my top 3 town leans and top 3 mafia leans. the number line could look like this:

<---A----D--------M/T--B--E--C----F--->

and even though B is town-leaning slightly, they'd be lumped in that bottom 3 kinda thing.

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@kikotoot reading your reasons for no elim, I really feel like we have very similar perspectives on day 1 kills here, just executing it completely different.

You are team no elim because you don't want to risk losing a valuable town member, but I'm team elim the in/least active because I want to keep the game going and get some intel and think risking a not participating town is better than risking someone vocal.

I also never really considered your perspective on waiting to vote. I felt placing a vote right at the start can be suspicious too to be honest, haha. This is so complicated. It also made it harder now that the inactive thing is gone, though I still have my least active thoughts for Raven. I just know that I don't want to vote Tessa.

I will go ahead and place my power vote on Tessa though, because unless she says something very maf leaning, I feel confident about that pick.

Placing a vote immediately can def be sus if you're counting on ppl jumping on your bandwagon. If I remember correctly, when tess was maf in baby park I think she also made the first vote there (but she also just wasn't gonna be able to vote later, and has played lots of games since then). Given this group, I don't think any of us would really count on the bandwagon angle that heavily. Kinda just a gut thingy, but I do feel atm that the more likely maf move in this game is controlling the end of the vote vs trying to initiate a bandwagonning.

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i appreciate the effort but it rubs me the wrong way how confident they are that it’s 2 mafia and is pushing no elim when that doesn’t give us any extra days. i can see them being town over you, but i’m not liking the confidence. someone like tessa has expressed multiple times that she’s unsure which i feel comes from an uninformed mindset

2 mafia is literally just me being a little mind-fixed from baby park, which was a similar size to here I think and had 2 mafs and 3rd unkown maf. I feel like a 1 maf game with 7 people would just be so skewed against them unless they had some absurd powers. Especially considering the fact that, as soon as we nail down people as innocent, the mid-late game will be dominated by voting to give powers to townies most likely, making it near impossible for the lone maf to win.
With the no elim thing, again, I've only ever played one game of maf, and it had a day-1 no elim vote and townies won it. I do see your guys' way of thinking though and am 50/50 on it atm I think, am not a firm no-vote.

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Would rather vote off an active player on a pure emotional level though yeah if Raven doesn’t start posting soon that is a problem for us

Post automatically merged: Apr 13, 2023

If someone is like “Kiko knows mech” I’ll probably take Dans point on the matter with more credence

ngl I've no idea what this 'mech' is that's being referred to.
again, my only experience with mafia is the *very* nontraditional baby park

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vote-wise, I think I'd like to give the power to one of tessa or frosty, probably frosty because they're newer and I'm excited to see how they use it. I would give it to Dolby but don't want to split the town's votes and let maf control the day-1 item going to mafia

voting to elim, I'm most leaning towards dan or betsy rn (ofc), and seeing how tessa was talking with/about betsy earlier has me a little wary, but also I'd feel bad voting betsy out when the first thing that sent me down that train of thinking was a result of someone else's play.

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frosty i don’t have a particular instance that has made me think town lock like betsy and tessa, but tonally their posts come off as genuine. there’s a bit of nervousness to it but i think it’s from lack of information and not really knowing how to set their foot in the ground. mostly a vibe thing but the vibes come off as innocent

My thing is, (if I missed/forgot about it, please link me to it), I feel like there hasn't been any real detail behind your stances on betsy and tessa. And even moreso, your stances haven't really evolved throughout the day. Especially with Betsy, who's only known their role and been speaking through that lens for a few hours, you're still so set

Post automatically merged: Apr 13, 2023

I hate popping out immediately after dropping big posts but am prepping for a dinner party, will be back later in the eve! hopefully sporadically before then too

 

[Dolby]

Yeah this guy is super town

Post automatically merged: Apr 13, 2023

I would really appreciate his power vote though

Post automatically merged: Apr 13, 2023

Kiko please trust me when I say that voting for me for the power vote will not split the vote.

Well it probably will but the item being in my hands would be extremely good

 

[Biancasbotique]

From Bianca:

Please do not forget to VOTE for both item and elimination each round. Failure to do so will result in forfeiture of special item privileges if you are voted by the group in the future.

 

[BetsySundrop]

..me think town lock like betsy and tessa

For town locking frosty, nobody is ever town locked imo. It's why, while frosty, as an individual, isn't sus to me, I'm still waiting on who to vote to give the item.

To me, this is sussy. A townie's first priority would be ensuring that the power does not fall into mafia hands. There are two rationales for you feeling this way, one being town-leaning, and the other maf leaning.
1. It follows that the public winner of the item-vote will likely be a mafia target, and especially on day 1 where there's not too much to go by, the item-vote winner would almost certainly be killed *if they're a townie*. A mafia would not want the item, especially day-1, as the item winner *not* being killed would throw lots of suspicion on them as being one of the mafia.
If you're a townie, the only reason I can think for you to not want the item-vote is if you believe your innate power is so strong that you really don't want the extra heat on you and want to 100% make it to at least day-2.

Yes.

but also I'd feel bad voting betsy out when the first thing that sent me down that train of thinking was a result of someone else's play.

I really hate when someone else's play somehow puts a target on myself.

And I really dislike when people who imply tr on me most of the game suddenly flip that and vote me, and then don't really explain it.

At least you're giving reasons for sus, responding, and are really thinking it through, which I do appreciate.

 

[FrostyAlmonds]

Quick catch up. I'm just skimming now, if you think I missed something important, let me know. I'll be able to concentrate more around 6-6:30pm EST so right now just replying to

Would you be okay with voting yourself for the item? A split isn't ideal near eod

I still need to catch up with the rest of the thread but as of right now, I feel more comfortable with you simply because there is more doubt about me than you as town right now. Is there a reason you feel better letting me have it? I'm not wholly unwilling of changing my vote to me, if we think it's the better call, but right now I think the majority of us are most comfy with you having it. I 100% do not want the power to go to Dolby because of how adamantly he is pressuring us to give it to him. I can't trust that.

Didn't Bianca confirm that Betsy did not get her role until last night?

Sorry if someone addressed this already.

Yes Bianca did, but Kiko brought up a good point that Betsy claimed yesterday to not have been reached out by a maf partner and that's why she was confident she was town. That could have been a lie. I'm not agreeing with the theory that it's a Dan Betsy game just yet, but it's something I want to look into more. It really gave a whole new perspective that we can't wholly ignore how Betsy played yesterday.

Placing a vote immediately can def be sus if you're counting on ppl jumping on your bandwagon. If I remember correctly, when tess was maf in baby park I think she also made the first vote there (but she also just wasn't gonna be able to vote later, and has played lots of games since then). Given this group, I don't think any of us would really count on the bandwagon angle that heavily. Kinda just a gut thingy, but I do feel atm that the more likely maf move in this game is controlling the end of the vote vs trying to initiate a bandwagonning.

Ah, okay, got you, thanks for explaining your pov. I totally see where you're coming from about that being a maf move, right now we all seem pretty divided so using that as a last minute advantage makes sense.