no hero should absolutely not claim at this point, save it for tomorrow if we ml today i legit think aerious just wants the hero public so they can be kingmaker an extra day
It doesnt matter if you king the hero tomorrow so there is literally no reason for hero to claim until that point
youre wrong here we need the hero to hold the claim
tomorrow hero claim can be tested, but i'd rather hit a mafia today
regardless, i think either 2 or 3 of them will lie in vt if there's even a hero cc
is tomorrow mylo/lylo?
It doesnt matter if you king the hero tomorrow so there is literally no reason for hero to claim until that point
youre wrong here we need the hero to hold the claim
If hero outs there's no way a kinged player would ever lynch them, so we won't get any vig kill.
If hero doesn't out and they get lynched unknowingly by the king, the king will die and they get a vig shot, but with RBer and backup still alive it's likely they'll just roleblock and kill.
I ran the numbers and I don't think tomorrow MYLO or LYLO (D5 minimum) so I don't understand the importance of outting today honestly.
tomorrow hero claim can be tested, but i'd rather hit a mafia today
regardless, i think either 2 or 3 of them will lie in vt if there's even a hero cc
is tomorrow mylo/lylo?
heyden brings up a good point in that if the hero gets targeted by the king publically then the hero is outed anyway, for this reason the king shouldnt publicize their final decision at the end of the day... the king obviously is still accountable in this instance so we dont need to worry about like wolf kings going ham
But if we get a general consensus that glow is town, scum can fake claim today to save themselves, because we don't want glow to die. So unless glow is willing to die for the hero, we have to be super careful. And even if the real hero claims to save the king, they die. Or worse the real hero claims to save glow and mafia cc, so glow kills the real hero and mafia kills them.
Hero should never claim, unless we hit mafia today, if that happens, tomorrow we try to get the other rb if we miss, hero scarifies to get the other rb only keeping vt and we just have to fight a goon, with the best possible outcome ending D6/7, but this way we can get to F3.
So after thinking this, I would strongly suggest no other town claims today or until the hero is ready.
So following this.
Mafia will rb watcher and kill someone else
if we hit rb
Mafia will rb watcher and kill someone else
if we hit second rb
Mafia will kill watcher
BUT and this is suicide mission, if hero claims today and glow is willing to die, we still have watcher, so if we agree on mafia, they will have to decide between, rb the vig kill or the watcher. So hero dies but vig hits, and watcher gets rb. And if you think this is a good idea, well its not, because they will just rb the hero and kill the watcher, so therefore HERO SHOULD NEVER CLAIM THIS DAY!!!
1. Geoni Heyden Null 2. Epona um not sure started town but i need to reeval now 3. voltairenism wolf lean they have really been coasting to me and their king kill seemed a little lackluster 4. Sidney wolf 5. Shawo Birdo (Doctor) died N2
6. Aerious town 7. Ace Marvel Leaning town 8. Fleshy Town 9. guav@ Town 10. DinoTown MC Ballyhoo (Kingmaker I) died N1
11. N e s s Town 12. glow Town 13. MyLifeisCake Captain Toad (Townie) died D1
14. Feferily bell account Town 15. unravel Starlow (Kingmaker II) died D2
this seems a bit too clean to be right it's more likely that im wrong and its an easy ness guava to wrap up but that just doesnt feel right to me, im more confident in guava being town than i am ness atm but weve already talked a lot about ness
i think glows case on guava holds a lot of merit too idk why im even arguing against these kills theyre fine on paper
Tbh Aerious isn't wrong bc I'd rather sort out the claims early game rather than late game in a MYLO situation, for which deciding being hero claims makes things a lot more complicated, or between kingmaker claims, but like the problem with Hero outting now is that they're 100% dead N4. While it gives us a safe king choice on MYLO situations, we won't have one after that bc they'll die that same night.
Honestly we could just king volt again he's probably town I think.
Also still waiting for Guava defence posts! She's literally digging her own hole, why would she do this as mafia, like there's barely any effort in her posts for which she could easily turn it around but it seems like she just doesn't care? Feels so townie
i think guava ness is town and im sticking to that, if im wrong im wrong
epona is concerning me between the behavior yesterday and now the regret for not killing guava and trying to push toward that today is inconsistent with the confident "okay guava is town lol" from yesterday??
not a good look
i am convinced ness is town. if it's between ness/guava today then it has to be guava. i chickened out with guava eod yesterday bc i find her really difficult to read, i always tr her when she's scum and i always sr read her when she's town. people still seemed to want unravel dead and just from the POE i felt like she could have been scum, especially if shawo was town which i was pretty confident he was after the whole ness fakeclaim stuff
with the hindsight that unravel is town i think i just misread guava last night
like her lack of effort/giving a crap if she lives or dies feels towny to me but if she's not on the scumteam i do not know who is
but if it's between guava and ness then i want it to be guava
you weren't even in that game? show me where i was uncertain lol
i also think it's pointless to compare certainty as AI in plurality lynch games vs a kingmaker game. there is a massive difference between being 1 vote that has to convince everyone else to see it from your perspective, and being the ONLY vote that decides the kill
heyden brings up a good point in that if the hero gets targeted by the king publically then the hero is outed anyway, for this reason the king shouldnt publicize their final decision at the end of the day... the king obviously is still accountable in this instance so we dont need to worry about like wolf kings going ham
i didn't even think of this. isn't the hero effectively useless until both the roleblocker and the backup are dead then?
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see this is why is is useful to have everyone chime in on claiming instead of one voice dominating and saying everyone needs to claim or else i'm kinging ppl who will lycnh you
I’m not here partially tomorrow bc I have surgery and idk how long before I’ll have access to my phone bc I’m not allowed radiation exposure afterwards lol so apologies for my absence, but I have faith that glow won’t lynch me, I hope. I’m not counting Aerious or Fleshy bc mechanically they should be clear for everyone. I'm pretty sure everyone has checked in anyway and hasn't CC'd Aerious' kingmaker claim for what it's worth.
Voltaire - His king reign on D1 was way too chill to be mafia, scum king generally tend to not interact as much to avoid their scummates being suggested as lynches for which they panic, for which Volt was quite clearly the opposite. Someone mentioned his EoD activity as king made him more town which I think is true bc it revealed his sporadic nature and I don’t see him emulating that behaviour as mafia, especially since the main candidates were all town (unravel, dino, cake). He’d only be this sporadic if a) a scummate was up for nomination (not the case), or b) he’s town. His current posts reflect that too so I’m pretty comfortable in saying Volt is probably town.
Ness - Based on what unfolded on Day 2 I really can’t see Ness as mafia, I can understand why people would think his behaviour equates to mafia but in my eyes it’s just not feasible or correlates to how he plays as scum, or at all honestly, plus combined with how literally everyone jumped on him with 0 thought. No offence but Ness is lowkey a tryhard and this game from the beginning he’s just been posting junk/memes, and for him to later come out with the watcher fakeclaim it just feels like he’s suffering from ~~bored townie syndrome~~.
His watcher claim flop it reads to me as embarrassment and confusion rather than defeat, for which the same thing happened to me last game. I just really don’t see any person doing this, ‘bluefishing’ is always by town, for which it’s misconstrued and wasn’t actually bluefishing in the first place lol. I’ve never seen mafia ‘bluefish’ bc if anything they’re the most cautious and self-aware when talking about blue roles. Along with him WILLING to be lynched for the sake of town, for which those posts were closer to EoD, the timing making all the difference. He’s under high pressure right now and doesn’t seem to care which is upsetting bc I genuinely believe he’s town so idk what’s he’s doing rn since he’s generally a high effort player regardless of alignment. I’m not trying to insult your play it's just idk.
Glow - I like her early game posts, very reminiscent of town glow and her usual thought process on her reads, besides her push on Feferily for her excusatory posts which was really weak and grasping at straws imo. I think I said this before but her Cake lynch reaction screams town bc she wouldn't admit to her mistake which is typical lol. Her calling out Epona in one of her posts reads well to me as well even though I don't think Epona is maf bc I thought the same thing, but the Epona thing wasn't AI so. I’m still wary though bc she hasn’t been scum in years but also her attitude towards Ness is what’s throwing me off. I’m annoyed bc besides me glow has played the most games with Ness and she’s seemingly just deathtunneled him under the influence of Aerious without considering how Ness plays, for which I feel like she’be more aware of it. Maybe I’m being blind to Ness but I really really don’t think that’s the case, but outside of that I’m pretty sure she’s town.
Epona - Her early game activity to me reeks of town actively trying to put forth content and reads that are actually useful, except when she brought up her scum game to prove something, like she’s aware of her behaviour or something, that was weird. Right now, she feels like one of the only players trying to actively progress the game though rather than stalling (i.e. deathtunnelling, not presenting lynch candidates) so I believe she’s town bc as maf I feel you'd just let the thread flop further. Initially I was a bit skeptical on her Waffles lynch, bc she seemed a little too relaxed? But the more I think of it, it reads more like she gave up and just let town pick for her, which feels like deflated town to me, like she was genuinely upset at EoD lol. I feel good about Epona for the most part, probably town.
Ace - Reading through his post filter is a chore trying to sift out the posts that actually have something to look at lol, which is typical of the last game or two I’ve played with him. His first rainbow reads list is intriguing bc he put Cake in townreads then 180’d on her later which is not the problem, but he lumped Cake with Sidney and put Cake over Sidney without much reasoning. His discern for shawo looks good for him IMO, but what weirds me out is his role name speculation. I hate when people speculate role names bc it’s a common mafia tactic to pile on reasoning to lynch someone, especially with shawo softing PR, for which he didn’t show any paranoia to his lynch, to which town should. Also him ‘preparing a death post’ then immediately stating how he thought Shawo would flip hero and not doctor reads so weird to me, like I can’t put my finger on it but something feels so off in his statement.
Not AI but his threesome thing with Ness/Dino reads as meh, that forced buddy buddy mindset reminds me of a few older games where scum did similar jokey alliance things but idk. What’s throwing me off again with Ace is how detached he is with the thread, I feel like if he was mafia he’d be a little bit more attentive unless it’s some preplanned facade, but I’ve never seen his scumgame which is why I’m not sure if this is applicable or not.
Bell - I’m on the fence bc bell seems to be one of the more rational players here, and while being rational doesn’t equate to town obviously, his thoughts align with mine which makes me inclined to believe he’s town. What I didn’t like was his ease to accept Shawo’s claim bc IMO Shawo showed no display of being town or actual PR, so for him to confirm Shawo as town so quickly is weird to me. Then followed by Shawo’s eventual death, from a town POV I wouldn’t expect shawo to be obvious town? idk. Besides his involvement in the Ness fiasco I’m not sure where he stands bc besides that I don’t think he’s really contributed much besides a few tidbits here and there. Him going after Aerious who was basically confirmed town provided nothing and derailed the thread further, not sure what he was trying to achieve with that. His Volt/Sidney read is intriguing so I’d like to har about that.
I know it’s unfair to speak on a replacement’s predecessor but food for thought, Feferily quite clearly read the read and asked if there were claims, knowing Aerious claimed townie and Shawo softed PR, feels like forced town involvement lol. I’m not sure anyone picked up on that but whatever.
Guava - Not gonna lie I’ve been blindly townreading her on the sole reason no one has come to her defence, for which she looks like lynch fodder and upon rereading I’ve confused myself further. With how people reacted to her and are currently reacting to her I think she’s too easy of a lynch and like I hate to be a hypocrite but I’m not sure I’ll ever be able to get over Guava since she’ll inevitably live to endgame/be lynched IMO. Her full 180 on Ness then denying she called Ness townie and placed on it on Bell (for which I’m interested why she’s TRing him) feels like pure retcon. Also I didn’t like her roleclaiming to Aerious, feels like sucking up tryna get on her good side zzzzz. As someone who’s seemingly an independent player and not afraid to do/say what she wants, which would usually indicate a townplay to me, that Aerious suck up is so off to me.
>This game’s really weird bc I feel like I townread most people and idk what I’m looking for at this point. As much as I hate to admit it, we do have 2 mislynches left and I think ~infolynching~ is fine if some people are really such a hindrance on one’s reads and thoughts. My problem with this game is that I feel like an exact repeat is occurring where Aerious is confirmed town, and everyone else is under the knife, for which there’s one person who she’s deathtunnelling and it’s kind of derailing the game. The general consensus last game was that I was town, hell even Tom townread me and he was mafia lmao, yet Aerious was the only person gunning after me which derailed the thread continuously, for which it’s happening here with Ness imo. If lynching Ness helps appease her thoughts then fine, we have room for that but again the general consensus is that Ness isn’t mafia?? Mistakes are forgivable, but not learning from them isn’t imo.
Also writing through this list I’m kind of doubting myself on the outside interactions, since technically there’s only 3 mafia so I feel like I’ve kinda exaggerated their external influence on the current scumreads/lynches within town a bit, if that makes sense.
Outside of the jumbled situation, ideally I’d like to lynch Ace/Bell, maybe Guava but again she feels too obvious. Epona and Glow are also under my radar but most people here are too scared to come after them, so I’m just praying they’re town. Latter can’t be lynched anyway.
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Omg I'm glad I didn't put quotes in ^_______^
Excuse my typos GOODNIGHT
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Oh I forgot Sidney and Volt
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Voltaire - His king reign on D1 was way too chill to be mafia, scum king generally tend to not interact as much to avoid their scummates being suggested as lynches for which they panic, for which Volt was quite clearly the opposite. Someone mentioned his EoD activity as king made him more town which I think is true bc it revealed his sporadic nature and I don’t see him emulating that behaviour as mafia, especially since the main candidates were all town (unravel, dino, cake). He’d only be this sporadic if a) a scummate was up for nomination (not the case), or b) he’s town. His current posts reflect that too so I’m pretty comfortable in saying Volt is probably town.
Sidney - seem to be neutral on most things about the game so far, which is kind of expected of a new player bc they don’t exactly know what they’re looking for, but also idk how to read that as town or scum bc it’s easily either. New players are relatively easy to push into lynches by scum since they trip themselves up without realising, so pls consider this with Sidney bc it feels like that’s what’s happening rn? Although she does seem missing from the thread.
She’s being scumread for coasting from what I’ve seen and I’m not entirely sure that’s substantial though. Her 4 main scumreads have all ended up town hence why she seems lost, for which her current TRs are Ace/Volt/Epona/Glow, but other than that I’m not really sure where she stands at the moment. I don’t think she’s a good lynch at all for today, she seems like an easy push zzzzz.
secondly these reads are creme de la creme and i think probably town
only one i really disagree with you on is sidney, i think she might just have randed scum and is now doing the whole uwu i'm just not sure! on the suggestion of her scummates bc it's ez
agree that she's not a good choice for today bc she's detached and it doesn't help with worldbuilding at all regardless of which way she flips
secondly these reads are creme de la creme and i think probably town
only one i really disagree with you on is sidney, i think she might just have randed scum and is now doing the whole uwu i'm just not sure! on the suggestion of her scummates bc it's ez
agree that she's not a good choice for today bc she's detached and it doesn't help with worldbuilding at all regardless of which way she flips
imo there is a track-record of guava being ML for the same reasons people are pointing her out but it could go either way. I don't think unravel is town but I don't think I can change your opinion. My other idea is geoni's slot but that can't be done rn
Look I get if you guys can't trust me but I doubt you'll get much information from eliminating me considering I'm public enemy #1 and everyone in the thread has said I'm suspicious at some point this phase. I'm just going to drop it and do what I can based off my actions going forward.
@epona Could you take out unravel maybe, I really don't care for the way they reacted to my claim initially since they were one of the several people that doubted it. The only people that have excuses for not assuming I was telling the truth at the time are Fleshy and (maybe) shawo, since only the mafia could have known that I'd be lying that shawo was the one who committed the kill. If you don't get what I'm saying I'm down to explain it more.
yeah i get you
to be honest i hadn't really reconsidered unravel after i basically conf biased them town bc of my shawo tmi theory. but now shawo is probably town so that theory is bogus anyway
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ok i'm leaving sidney alone if they're scum they're not rlly a priority
who do u guys want gone? guava or unravel
my brain doesn't have the capacity to care about you thinking i'm indecisive
read back over EOD and just wanted to show a quick progression of my thoughts and why i switched to unravel
volt and ness were probably my two biggest townreads (minus fleshy) so i did what they thought was best. i stlll townread them both
heyden is right in that i was honestly feeling dejected af by eod yesterday and i really just didn't care how the lynch flip reflected on me. i still don't but there's been a weird little spin-off theory that i'm mafia and i'm just not. if i were scum trust me that i would have killed aerious yesterday. i had plenty of reason to do it and had been scumreading her all game. the back and forth between me and her this whole game has honestly been super draining and has made me really hate this game and not want to play, so i would have been happy to execute lol. i only didn't kill her bc i had a niggling feeling that she was town and i was just letting my personal irritation get in the way of me reading her correctly, which as it turns out is exactly what happened
i really really did not want to kill town yesterday and i tried my best not to but i made a mistake
will try post more detailed reads later i'm just not feeling motivated enough to do it now.
i think scum is within guava, ace, sidney, bell and (maybe) glow but idk about glow
do you type out your reads in a separate doc or something and then post them into the thread or something
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bell, fleshy, aerious
glow, ace marvel
heyden, epona, voltaire, sidney
ness, guava
i mean, if ive decided ness and guava as town at least one of heyden and epona is mafia, more likely heyden atp
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why cant i iso
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the best thing i can come up with is shooting one of ness/guava today and then following a town flip shoot one of volt/heyden tomorrow
i know thats not very helpful at all but im really at a loss past my stronger town reads of which there arent enough for me
id recommend ness into volt
i keep skimming all ur posts cos there's just. very little chance i kill any1 that's not ness... lol
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wild that not only does epona townread ness but worse "one of her biggest townreads". it's really not clear to me why tho cos her giant post is about her unravel lynch from d2? so please... enlightenment
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also @bell account why are you advocating for ness' lynch today when you still townread him... iirc yesterday u were defending against an "info lynch" on him but ur last post seems to imply doing that
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have work so i'll be back in ~8-9 hours ish but i'll catch up during lunch
IF i do end early it will probably be in 10-12 hours
but what would help is outing your reads bc you haven't even tried to offer me an alternative and instead call me mafia despite townreading me most of this game.