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As for Antonio I changed my mind after reading the quotes, though I am curious, and while I do agree changing your vote last minute is definitely suspicious, why did you react they way you did when Betsy changed her vote?
The thing is, it's not suspicious. I have proper reasoning behind my vote, and clearly stated why. I also clearly stated my reads beforehand so changing my vote to Catharina isn't that much of a stretch.
A last minute change of vote is only suspicious if you don't explain beforehand or if you attempt to pull a wagon by persuading others to last minute change their vote. If you have proper reasons why to change your vote, then state it and you'll be fine.
@Koopadude100 D2, Antonio switched vote to Cath knowing full well that meant her likely elimination with no real vocal opposition. I really cannot see this as a possible strategy Antonio would take, in the case of an Antonio/Cath team, so I think an Antonio/Cath team is completely impossible.
Antonio/Koopadude100 team is a possibility, because that switch would be to save a teammate. But, it seems unlike Antonio to do something that silly and risky, even having explained the logic behind it. That's an extremely unlikely situation for me as well.
If I trust BetsySundrop is town, that only leaves one possibility for who the mafia team is.
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A possibility that I have given serious consideration to is that on D2, Betsy 'faked' being 'convinced' by Damniel to vote for Cath instead of for him, planning all along to switch her vote back to Damniel in an act of 'regretting being convinced by Damniel'. My involvement (e.g. my end-of-day posts about my theory) might have been anticipated or not, but to her credit Betsy has not tried to pin any blame on me for her decision, even having been drilled in detail by Antonio.
For this reason and others, I read Betsy quite strongly as town.
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p.s. I don't mean to characterize what Betsy said as blaming Damniel for "convincing" her, I didn't go back to grab the quotes and I'm just using convenient words that might not be perfect to get the idea across
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Koopa and Cath - I haven't decided for myself that anything that either of you have done is indicative of you being mafia, it's mainly that my observations above have reduced my possible voting pool to you two, and nobody else. As explained earlier, I'm going to be voting Cath first simply because that's what Antonio and Betsy have already voted and I don't want to risk any funny business!
Oh it's late and I'm really sleepy... I didn't even explain the reason, lol. I mean, the quoted sentence does not really follow the paragraph. Here's the reason - "I think this possibility (Betsy faking the Damniel swap) is extremely unlikely because it's really elaborate and subtle. I think faking it would be really difficult, especially considering the PAGES of dialogue that occurred between Betsy and Antonio working out many of the details of this particular decision."
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If it turns out that Betsy is mafia, I'll be absolutely stunned and probably awed at the elaborate machinations of her (& her partner's) play in this game. But I think those kinds of things probably only happen in fancy mystery novels and dramas ; )
Antonio/Koopadude100 team is a possibility, because that switch would be to save a teammate. But, it seems unlike Antonio to do something that silly and risky, even having explained the logic behind it. That's an extremely unlikely situation for me as well.
On top of that, in this scenario the vote stands to eliminate a townie, meaning mafia wins. The fact that you (@Koopadude100) are trying to sway me to vote Antonio is pretty much the final nail in the coffin of this team-up, lol. Even if I accept the viability of an extreme case of bussing such as this, you'd be literally trying to persuade me to not do something that will win you the game... So, again, impossibility.
A possibility that I have given serious consideration to is that on D2, Betsy 'faked' being 'convinced' by Damniel to vote for Cath instead of for him, planning all along to switch her vote back to Damniel in an act of 'regretting being convinced by Damniel'. My involvement (e.g. my end-of-day posts about my theory) might have been anticipated or not, but to her credit Betsy has not tried to pin any blame on me for her decision, even having been drilled in detail by Antonio.
This is extremely well phrased and puts my previous perspective on Betsy into well, perspective. If you had to give me a ratio, what X/Y would you provide regarding the possibility that Betsy faking it. (X being percent for and Y being percent against.) I'm currently at a 30/70 ratio, coming down from a 45/65.
Your sus on Catharina and Koopa is simply due to a process of elimination, do you not find any of their behavior (or lack of) suspicious? I have previously explained that both Catharina/Koopa lacked the drive to push on their opinions (during day 2) plus the fact that both of them seem the most likely to fall under my previous stated theory...do you think that warrants a sus read or not?
Your sus on Catharina and Koopa is simply due to a process of elimination, do you not find any of their behavior (or lack of) suspicious? I have previously explained that both Catharina/Koopa lacked the drive to push on their opinions (during day 2) plus the fact that both of them seem the most likely to fall under my previous stated theory...do you think that warrants a sus read or not?
(I'll answer this one first.)
I do find some of it suspicious but I'm not confident in my own ability to discern whether "not driven" means "mafia" or "low involvement town"... Your theory is the one about inexperienced players eliminating Geoni, correct? can you explain to me how you arrived at that? i'm kinda inexperienced myself, and I'm not sure why it would be a bad move to eliminate him.o
(I'll answer this one first.)
I do find some of it suspicious but I'm not confident in my own ability to discern whether "not driven" means "mafia" or "low involvement town"... Your theory is the one about inexperienced players eliminating Geoni, correct? can you explain to me how you arrived at that? i'm kinda inexperienced myself, and I'm not sure why it would be a bad move to eliminate him.o
There are two mafia members in this game, due to the 1 mafia per 7 players rule (with the remainder counting as an extra). Right? Then wouldn't it make sense that both of them are inexperienced due to them voting off Geoni day 1? Usually, if there is more than one mafia member, they have to come together and decide on who to kill during night 1. Therefore, we can conclude that killing off Geoni was a collective idea between the mafia members. Therefore, can't we conclude that both of the mafia members are inexperienced.
I stated before that I believe Geoni death was motivated by inexperienced players, but I don't see how both of them can come to that conclusion unless they are both inexperienced. I do believe that a Koopa/Cat team is possible but I'm not sure how experienced Cat is as mafia.
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Here's my quote regarding my reason why I think Geoni vote was inexperienced motivated.
This is extremely well phrased and puts my previous perspective on Betsy into well, perspective. If you had to give me a ratio, what X/Y would you provide regarding the possibility that Betsy faking it. (X being percent for and Y being percent against.) I'm currently at a 30/70 ratio, coming down from a 45/65.
okay, your theory about inexperienced players makes a lot of sense to me. i wrote a big page full of my thoughhts but won't send it, the short version is: more experienced players as mafia know that eliminating current threats won't guarantee them fewer threats in the endgame?
i think a decision might not in practice be particularly collective if one mafia is more pushy (due to experience and/or personality), but generally im also in agreement that you'd need two less-experienced players to make a decision that runs counter to logic that an experienced player would have developed.
barely Able to form coherent words due to sleepy, good thing I can edit them!! Good night
The summary of what you were actually saying was that experienced players wouldn't eliminate someone they might be able to work with. From your own experience playing mafia you've noticed more experienced players prefer people they can work with, or have you noticed yourself preferring that? Or both? My last before-bed post was me trying to figure out why that would be the case -- I guess everyone is a little scared, everyone wants a game where they're confident about the outcome. Unpredictable new players have logic that's harder to follow, so with Experience a person begins to prefer people with more consistent reasonable logic that they can actually interact with?
The summary of what you were actually saying was that experienced players wouldn't eliminate someone they might be able to work with. From your own experience playing mafia you've noticed more experienced players prefer people they can work with, or have you noticed yourself preferring that? Or both? My last before-bed post was me trying to figure out why that would be the case -- I guess everyone is a little scared, everyone wants a game where they're confident about the outcome. Unpredictable new players have logic that's harder to follow, so with Experience a person begins to prefer people with more consistent reasonable logic that they can actually interact with?
Sort of, what I am saying is that experienced mafia would tend to vote off inexperience (and inactive) townie because there's only a little bit of information to work with regarding their vote. Voting off experience players would obvious make a statement that "Hey, they found this person a threat" while voting off inexperience players is like "Hmmm, why did they do that", ya know?
Droqen- Town. All of my earlier reads/posts explain why I think droqen is town, and nothing has occurred since to change my reading.
Antonio- Most likely town. I put a lot of pressure on antonio, and we had some conflict on d2. Because of this, and the fact that antonio had been on my sus list for a good amount of time, I think if antonio were wolf, he'd have killed me.
Koopa- Wolf. Based on previous activity, but also because of d3 activity. Koopa has previously contradicted himself, and has had sudden changes in opinion with inadequate explanations. In a d3 post, koopa says he thinks catharina and antonio are a team, so he is voting for antonio, but in that same post says catherina reads more town. So...a catharina/antonio team, except catharina's not sus, but antonio is. That makes no sense.
Catharina- Wolf. Based on previous activity/reads, but also on d3. I think koopa is very suspicious, but after voting for koopa d1, Catharina has had him as null ever since, no sus. Also, the d1 vote for koopa came in the last few minutes, when there were two town wagons, and geoni had left his legacy of koopa being a likely wolf. Then all of d2 she has koopa not sus. And in a d3 post, said she still wouldn't vote koopa over dan in a repeat.
Antonio's theory- I think the theory fits, but would add one thing to it regarding personal schedules. I believe it is possible (and I could be wrong) that catharina/koopa were not able to engage in eod, possibly because of other issues, and that this had to affect their votes. Ultimately, I believe this worked in their favor, as it made others who did engage at eod suspicious.
Based on everything I've explained in earler reads and posts, along with the activity of d3 I am sticking with my catharina vote.
To me, both mafia players have to be in the antonio/droqen/betsy pool. (I feel like I already explained my "townread" on koopa and I just don't see him being mafia and if I was, I would prob not dare to say that. (also the other way around I would prob tell koopa to vote me, but oh well)). I feel like I'm just an easy push. The experienced town killing at night could honestly just be a tactic to shove the newbie players under the bus. (Bianca even thought a few things were townie of me). I know I don't post a lot but, my play style is being more reversed (just like the first game I played) I honestly struggle to post and if I had a mafia member I would get help? Also, isn't this going way too easy ? Oh well, what will be will be.
@Koopadude100 for someone interested in a cat/antonio mafia pair, you seem awfully invested in switching the vote from one mafia to the other. why bother?
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@Catharina sorry we haven't talked much lol. i buy your point about "having help" if you're mafia, but if anything this increases my sus in either specifically a cath+koop pair (since you're both quiet/inexperienced) or a betsy+antonio pair. are betsy and antonio complete and utter evil geniuses? seems more likely the situation is a pair of less experienced mafia
@Koopadude100 for someone interested in a cat/antonio mafia pair, you seem awfully invested in switching the vote from one mafia to the other. why bother?
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@Catharina seems more likely the situation is a pair of less experienced mafia
What I meant is that if it's a choice between [a pair of inexperienced mafia doing night kills on big threats] vs [a pair doing night kills on big threats in order to then elaborately pin it on the inexperience of inexperienced players], the former does seem a lot easier to believe?
reflecting back on this though, I realize that Betsy should really be in my inexperienced pool... so do I believe Antonio, specifically, has been masterminding a plot to eliminate big threats (i.e. Geoni) in order to pin it on the less experienced players? not sure! I'm steaming a fish, I'll be back in an hour.
I find all mafia pairs including Antonio utterly unbelievable at this point except Antonio X Betsy for reasons previously stated, and that pairing would be a very big leap for me. not totally impossible, but a Very Big Leap. going to think on this more.
Antonio/Betsy, if you have any evidence disproving your pairing, I'm open to hearing it, but being totally honest it might just feed my paranoia that you've thought this through too much X_X I leave it to your judgement.
Cath/Koop, if you want to help me see this pairing more clearly, point me in the direction of evidence that might support it? I don't have much at the moment, myself.
Antonio/Betsy, if you have any evidence disproving your pairing, I'm open to hearing it, but being totally honest it might just feed my paranoia that you've thought this through too much X_X I leave it to your judgement.
I'm not sure how exactly I would do that, there's no evidence atm supporting the possibility of a me/Betsy team so there's nothing I can do to counter that argument. if I'm missing any evidence, let me know.
I'm not sure how exactly I would do that, there's no evidence atm supporting the possibility of a me/Betsy team so there's nothing I can do to counter that argument. if I'm missing any evidence, let me know.
I haven't found any smoking guns anywhere, and I've learned I'm apparently a fan of deduction! So, something like how you switched vote to Cath without any good "way out" if you were both mafia is a concrete action which seems to disprove to me that you and Cath could be mafia together. Anti-smoking gun!
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Not something that disproves apparent proof, but anything that disproves the theoretical possibility. There may not be any such evidence, tho.
I haven't found any smoking guns anywhere, and I've learned I'm apparently a fan of deduction! So, something like how you switched vote to Cath without any good "way out" if you were both mafia is a concrete action which seems to disprove to me that you and Cath could be mafia together. Anti-smoking gun!
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Not something that disproves apparent proof, but anything that disproves the theoretical possibility. There may not be any such evidence, tho.
I see where you are coming from. If I had to think up a possible "Anti-smoking gun" regarding the possibility of a Betsy/Me team, wouldn't the previous back-and-forth during our early D3 interaction weaken that possibility? There was obviously a huge miscommunication between the two of us when conveying our points. Since being mafia requires off-page communication between each other, wouldn't that miscommunication weaken the possibility? There is also the possibility of me and Betsy faking that interaction but there's not much backing that up, really. I still remember the frustration I was feeling trying to convey my points and Betsy reading something else entirely. ._.
Plus, if we are talking about communication then the "attempted" (in quotes because there isn't much pressure on me to solve their suspicions, they are just going with their idea without enforcing much on it) push on me from Catharina/Koopa could be coming from a place of off-page communication, since there wasn't such a push on me, to begin with. That would further the idea that both Catharina and Koopa are on the same mafia team.
I've got no way to prove a negative, so I have no way to prove that antonio/myself are not a team.
At the beginning of d2, I did suspect an antonio/koopa team, and I have mentioned before that it was quite a coincidence that they were both replacements, and both going for geoni. Koopa voted geoni, antonio did no vote, and then geoni was killed while under suspicion.
However, I don't think that would be the case now, because I believe antonio cleared himself in my view, and did say that he was rxn testing with his geoni comments, and has had koopa as sus for a while now.
Antonio's theory of 2 inexperienced players would remove only himself from the pool, leaving everyone else, but I still think its valid. He gave clear reasons for it, and based on my interactions with him on d2, along with his reads, I don't think he's wolf.
Also, I will say that as koopas post and lack of explanation left him sus in my perspective, I find it sus that catharina still has him town.
I came in to check in, post my last post and confirm my vote. I said yesterday I wouldn't do eod late action, and I will stick to it. But I may stay for just a few minutes more..
I see where you are coming from. If I had to think up a possible "Anti-smoking gun" regarding the possibility of a Betsy/Me team, wouldn't the previous back-and-forth during our early D3 interaction weaken that possibility? There was obviously a huge miscommunication between the two of us when conveying our points. Since being mafia requires off-page communication between each other, wouldn't that miscommunication weaken the possibility? There is also the possibility of me and Betsy faking that interaction but there's not much backing that up, really. I still remember the frustration I was feeling trying to convey my points and Betsy reading something else entirely. ._.
Plus, if we are talking about communication then the "attempted" (in quotes because there isn't much pressure on me to solve their suspicions, they are just going with their idea without enforcing much on it) push on me from Catharina/Koopa could be coming from a place of off-page communication, since there wasn't such a push on me, to begin with. That would further the idea that both Catharina and Koopa are on the same mafia team.
This just confirms my vote decision. It's like the pool of betsy/droqen/antonio was presented, and they picked one and are attempting to clear each other while focusing on the one, who just happens to have been having a lot of conflict with another, but leaving it up to us to find the reasons. I listed in my last post some of the reasons I thought you were sus at first, and how those were cleared up for me, so I am sticking to my vote.
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I read back some posts and will parrot droqen. If you want to convince me that antonio or droqen are mafia, let's hear it. But it will have to be logical, with reasons to back it up. And I dont have much time, because I have to be off before eod.
o
