It's always smug. This thread was bumped from launch date when no one knew that it was going to be smug all the time. I got Ed, some smug horse, and I kept resetting hoping I would get someone different. I didn't like him at all and he was one of the first villagers I kicked out. I don't know if it was before I had the chance to use the amiibo cards or it was just natural.
I think it was confirmed last year that your first campsite villager is always smug. Its locked into the game I believe. The game forces you to get uchi, jock, lazy, peppy, normal, and.. snooty I think, and your next villager must be smug type (then cranky). Don't quote me on that order, but the main idea is that up until smug the game controllers the personality of villagers you get early in the game.