voltairenism
the mac propaganda representative
i hate the jester role can we ban this role forever
Mafia TBT Fair Mafia 2020 | Game (Starting 8/31 at 9PM EST)
- Thread starter Antonio
- Start date
i'm big confused bc you said maf know who the masons are already.
but then you're sus on even believing the dan&shawo claim? pla help my dumb monkey brain understand
i dont believe anyones' claims, if im being honest. this is a cluster **** of a game already.
Post automatically merged:
what is EM pls im lost.
Damniel
Openly Wolfing
volt, what do you think the scum motivation behind pushing a mass claim given the setup is
i have already outlined the benefit to doing this, you'll need to refute my argument. otherwise your claim that i just wanted masons to out is unfounded
i have already outlined the benefit to doing this, you'll need to refute my argument. otherwise your claim that i just wanted masons to out is unfounded
no evan said that to me. my post quote ****ed up ;-;
Damniel
Openly Wolfing
you can't use the argument of ness's claim in KM since that setup is very different compared to here
you shouldn't want to chop me if you believe my claim or if you think im jester, so you must think im mafia
and if im mafia you must think shawo is my partner?
Post automatically merged:
you shouldn't want to chop me if you believe my claim or if you think im jester, so you must think im mafia
and if im mafia you must think shawo is my partner?
voltairenism
the mac propaganda representative
my guess is that they should know by some reverse engineering because they know who is town and what roles they lied about. if everyone is lying though they probably can be wrong but I am assuming they are right
I already said before I don't think masons outing is necessarily a bad idea but I don't like mason to be incapable of having a choice. I am not sure if *you* are the one mafia behind some that advocated for the massclaiming but I dont think you cant convince me that mafia wouldnt like to have control of two prs like this
me talking abt ness claim has the same energy as tae saying theyre forever sus of shawo. come on
amazonevan19
DLELELEWOOOOP
Yes EM = epicmafia. Setups with heavy counterclaiming were very common when I played
I’m inclined to believe Dan atm because I don’t see a scenario where massclaiming helps mafia. He and shawo being the mafia team would be nothing short of suicidal claiming masons right now because if we decide to lynch their counterclaim or one of them, the lie is found out immediately
I’m inclined to believe Dan atm because I don’t see a scenario where massclaiming helps mafia. He and shawo being the mafia team would be nothing short of suicidal claiming masons right now because if we decide to lynch their counterclaim or one of them, the lie is found out immediately
Damniel
Openly Wolfing
given that we haven't been CC'd, shawo and I are cleared town along with final arcadia as the only miller claim. we've now narrowed down our PoE to that one of dedenne and tae are fakeclaiming for non town motivated reasons, and two of ronishy, volt, and evan are fake claiming for also non town reasons. given that both wolves won't claim the same role, one of dedenne and tae are mafia and the jester and other mafia are in the other group
this is great. we now have a 2/3 chance of not hitting town if we chop within the cop claims
of course this is assuming i am telling the truth about my mason claim. if im lying then that's really bad as 3 people will be inaccurately getting cleared!
this is great. we now have a 2/3 chance of not hitting town if we chop within the cop claims
of course this is assuming i am telling the truth about my mason claim. if im lying then that's really bad as 3 people will be inaccurately getting cleared!
jester is just a ML we have to play around.
Anyways obviously the current best playline is actually going into cops.
It doesn't matter who's claim you believe. By claiming mason I'm actually setting up arcadia as clear. Which is enough. With Arcadia as a clear I'm more than happy with how the claims turned out.
So following this we have two options...
We can either take the 50/50 in BP's for mafia, or take the 2/3 in Cop's for mafia.
Here's how the claims look right now.
BP/GF cc.
Hooker/Fool/Cop cc.
So if we take it at face value, we have one ml, a player who's actively playing against us, and 2 towns we can't lunch wrong in.
However I have a secret piece of information that might help.
Evan's fool locked.
(moving this to a second post to help.)
Anyways obviously the current best playline is actually going into cops.
It doesn't matter who's claim you believe. By claiming mason I'm actually setting up arcadia as clear. Which is enough. With Arcadia as a clear I'm more than happy with how the claims turned out.
So following this we have two options...
We can either take the 50/50 in BP's for mafia, or take the 2/3 in Cop's for mafia.
Here's how the claims look right now.
BP/GF cc.
Hooker/Fool/Cop cc.
So if we take it at face value, we have one ml, a player who's actively playing against us, and 2 towns we can't lunch wrong in.
However I have a secret piece of information that might help.
Evan's fool locked.
(moving this to a second post to help.)
Reasons evan must be fool:
If you look at the timeline of Evan's claim.
There have been 3 claims.
(Miller, Miller, and BP)
So let's assume for a second that Evan is mafia.
That means he's assuming that (shawo/i'm sorry I keep forgetting your name.) is fool, so they went ahead and claimed as cop (as roleblocker) leaving gf in BP.
So that seems reasonable...
But I think everyone took my miller claim at face value right? So given the fact that I'd assume everyone automatically locked me as a miller claim, the only two viable claims end up being BP and Cop.
But if we look at both of the later cop claims (one claiming to soft, and the other saying they didn't want to claim.) Both of them actually end up locked into their own roleclaim. Which means BOTH of them were already decided on claiming cop from the start.
Following that (hopefully) reasonable logic.
We see that Evan's claim is basically... opportunistic? I think? Is how I'd describe it? While the other two people were ready to claim cop from the start.
(Roleblocker has to claim cop since if roleblocker is in BPs, dies, cop is able to investigate in millers to determine where(~fool~) is.)
Lastly, let's assume that you're the fool, and you believe that mafia has already cc'd one of the roles. Wouldn't your best option be to just halfheartedly claim one of the roles and bait out a cc, so mafia can safely cc the last one.
It's... really hard to get intentionally lunched in a 3 person cc. So all of this is with the assumption that fool wouldn't want to put themselves into a situation where they wanted 3 people to cc them.
Lastly, I don't think Evan can be town because... of a lot of things.
And I think the odds of Evan being mafia is 20/80 to being fool.
So i guess foollocked and.... my hard fool read would be how I interchange this.
If you look at the timeline of Evan's claim.
There have been 3 claims.
(Miller, Miller, and BP)
So let's assume for a second that Evan is mafia.
That means he's assuming that (shawo/i'm sorry I keep forgetting your name.) is fool, so they went ahead and claimed as cop (as roleblocker) leaving gf in BP.
So that seems reasonable...
But I think everyone took my miller claim at face value right? So given the fact that I'd assume everyone automatically locked me as a miller claim, the only two viable claims end up being BP and Cop.
But if we look at both of the later cop claims (one claiming to soft, and the other saying they didn't want to claim.) Both of them actually end up locked into their own roleclaim. Which means BOTH of them were already decided on claiming cop from the start.
Following that (hopefully) reasonable logic.
We see that Evan's claim is basically... opportunistic? I think? Is how I'd describe it? While the other two people were ready to claim cop from the start.
(Roleblocker has to claim cop since if roleblocker is in BPs, dies, cop is able to investigate in millers to determine where(~fool~) is.)
Lastly, let's assume that you're the fool, and you believe that mafia has already cc'd one of the roles. Wouldn't your best option be to just halfheartedly claim one of the roles and bait out a cc, so mafia can safely cc the last one.
It's... really hard to get intentionally lunched in a 3 person cc. So all of this is with the assumption that fool wouldn't want to put themselves into a situation where they wanted 3 people to cc them.
Lastly, I don't think Evan can be town because... of a lot of things.
And I think the odds of Evan being mafia is 20/80 to being fool.
So i guess foollocked and.... my hard fool read would be how I interchange this.
Damniel
Openly Wolfing
shawo, i think you’re a bit too quick in saying volt was already planning on claiming cop
i don’t think there was any indication they planned to do that besides agreeing that cop was useless with jester returning as town
i don’t think there was any indication they planned to do that besides agreeing that cop was useless with jester returning as town
Interestingly... enough....
We could NL here...
The only reason we wouldn't NL here is because we lose our mylo if BP dies, and since mason would die tonight then tomorrow night.
However!
it doesn't matter at all because we end up with a clear every night (since miller is clear, and after cc's are sorted, BP/Cop can be clear.
The thing is... if we lunch today, it goes.
8p - 7p - 6p
(mason dead)
6p - 5p - 4p (mason dead)
4p - 3p (miller dead) mafia win. In any given case. Since all the roles are out.
I'm going to argue that a 50/50 chance of a cop getting a report is worth any potential wifom odds.
Obviously I'm nearly 99% sure that the roleblocker claimed cop, given the fact that it's fairly optimal, and all the cop claims seem like decent players.
So with there's a decent 50/50 chance that cop is able to identify their cc in a given situation.
Thoughts?
Once they said they didn't want to claim the only valid claim they had was cop.
it didn't make sense for them to say... I wanted to hide as BP... for reasons?
Claimed PR: Check
Talked about mechanics: Check
Decided NL was optimal: Check.
Ok I'm going afk now guys hope I get merked n1
We could NL here...
The only reason we wouldn't NL here is because we lose our mylo if BP dies, and since mason would die tonight then tomorrow night.
However!
it doesn't matter at all because we end up with a clear every night (since miller is clear, and after cc's are sorted, BP/Cop can be clear.
The thing is... if we lunch today, it goes.
8p - 7p - 6p
(mason dead)
6p - 5p - 4p (mason dead)
4p - 3p (miller dead) mafia win. In any given case. Since all the roles are out.
I'm going to argue that a 50/50 chance of a cop getting a report is worth any potential wifom odds.
Obviously I'm nearly 99% sure that the roleblocker claimed cop, given the fact that it's fairly optimal, and all the cop claims seem like decent players.
So with there's a decent 50/50 chance that cop is able to identify their cc in a given situation.
Thoughts?
Post automatically merged:
Once they said they didn't want to claim the only valid claim they had was cop.
it didn't make sense for them to say... I wanted to hide as BP... for reasons?
Post automatically merged:
Claimed PR: Check
Talked about mechanics: Check
Decided NL was optimal: Check.
Ok I'm going afk now guys hope I get merked n1
Damniel
Openly Wolfing
i mean there’s another mechanical reason but you should’ve figured it out by now. i’ll explain to you later if you want but i don’t think i have to
Nah I'm perfectly fine dying n1. I wouldn't have offered that if that wasn't the case. I'm fairly certain whether or not I'm alive doesn't matter, but before I go I'll out my reads.
Post automatically merged:
Closed nights being no forum is ideal.
